Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Population genetics of Australian white sharks reveals fine-scale spatial structure, transoceanic dispersal events and low effective population sizes

Despite international protection of white sharks Carcharodon carcharias, important conservation parameters such as abundance, population structure and genetic diversity are largely unknown. The tissue of 97 predominately juvenile white sharks sampled from spatially distant eastern and southwestern Australian coastlines was sequenced for the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and genotyped with 6 nuclear-encoded microsatellite loci. MtDNA population structure was found between the eastern and southwestern coasts (F-ST = 0.142, p < 0.0001), implying female reproductive philopatry. This concurs with recent satellite and acoustic tracking findings which suggest the sustained presence of discrete east coast nursery areas. Furthermore, population subdivision was found between the same regions with biparentally inherited micro satellite markers (F-ST = 0.009, p < 0.05), suggesting that males may also exhibit some degree of reproductive philopatry; 5 sharks captured along the east coast had mtDNA haplotypes that resembled western Indian Ocean sharks more closely than Australian/New Zealand sharks, suggesting that transoceanic dispersal, or migration resulting in breeding, may occur sporadically. Our most robust estimate of contemporary genetic effective population size was low and close to thresholds at which adaptive potential may be lost. For a variety of reasons, these contemporary estimates were at least 1, possibly 2, orders of magnitude below our historical effective size estimates. Population decline could expose these genetically isolated populations to detrimental genetic effects. Regional Australian white shark conservation management units should be implemented until genetic population structure, size and diversity can be investigated in more detail.

The genetic structure of Australasian green turtles (Chelonia mydas): Exploring the geographical scale of genetic exchange

Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Φ = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

Standard yet unusual mechanisms of long-distance dispersal: Seed dispersal of Corymbia torelliana by bees

Mellitochory, seed dispersal by bees, has been implicated in long-distance dispersal of the tropical rain forest tree, Corymbia torelliana (Myrtaceae). We examined natural and introduced populations of C. torelliana for 4 years to determine the species of bees that disperse seeds, and the extent and distance of seed dispersal. The mechanism of seed dispersal by bees was also investigated, including fruit traits that promote dispersal, foraging behaviour of bees at fruits, and the fate of seeds. The fruit structure of C. torelliana, with seed presented in a resin reward, is a unique trait that promotes seed dispersal by bees and often results in long-distance dispersal. We discovered that a guild of four species of stingless bees, Trigona carbonaria, T. clypearis, T. sapiens, and T. hockingsi, dispersed seeds of C. torelliana in its natural range. More than half of the nests found within 250 m of fruiting trees had evidence of seed transport. Seeds were transported minimum distances of 20-220 m by bees. Approximately 88% of seeds were dispersed by gravity but almost all fruits retained one or two seeds embedded in resin for bee dispersal. Bee foraging for resin peaked immediately after fruit opening and corresponded to a peak of seed dispersal at the hive. There were strong correlations between numbers of seeds brought in and taken out of each hive by bees (r = 0.753-0.992, P < 0.05), and germination rates were 95 ± 5%. These results showed that bee-transported seeds were effectively dispersed outside of the hive soon after release from fruits. Seed dispersal by bees is a non-standard dispersal mechanism for C. torelliana, as most seeds are dispersed by gravity before bees can enter fruits. However, many C. torelliana seeds are dispersed by bees, since seeds are retained in almost all fruits, and all of these are dispersed by bees.

Ocean dispersal modelling for propagules of pond apple (Annona glabra L.)

Pond apple invades riparian and coastal environments with water acting as the main vector for dispersal. As seeds float and can reach the ocean, a seed tracking model driven by near surface ocean currents was used to develop maps of potential seed dispersal. Seeds were ‘released’ in the model from sites near the mouths of major North Queensland rivers. Most seeds reach land within three months of release, settling predominately on windward-facing locations. During calm and monsoonal conditions, seeds were generally swept in a southerly direction, however movement turns northward during south easterly trade winds. Seeds released in February from the Johnstone River were capable of being moved anywhere from 100 km north to 150 km south depending on prevailing conditions. Although wind driven currents are the primary mechanism influencing seed dispersal, tidal currents, the East Australian Current, and other factors such as coastline orientation, release location and time also play an important role in determining dispersal patterns. In extreme events such as tropical cyclone Justin in 1997, north east coast rivers could potentially transport seed over 1300 km to the Torres Strait, Papua New Guinea and beyond.

Predicting dispersal and recruitment of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) in Australian tropical rainforests

Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes.

Cassowary dispersal of the invasive pond apple in a tropical rainforest: the contribution of subordinate dispersal modes in invasion.

Dispersal is a significant determinant of the pattern and process of invasions; however, weed dispersal distances are rarely described and descriptions of dispersal kernels are completely lacking for vertebrate-dispersed weeds. Here, we describe dispersal kernels generated by a native disperser, the endangered southern cassowary (Casuarius casuarius, L.) for an invasive, tropical rainforest plant, pond apple (Annona glabra, L.). Pond apple is primarily water-dispersed and is managed as such. We consider whether cassowary dispersal, as a numerically subordinate dispersal mode, provides an additional dispersal service that may modify the invasion process. In infested areas, pond apple seed was common in cassowary dung. Gut passage had no effect on the probability of single seed germination but deposition in clumps or as whole fruits reduced the probability of germination below that of single seeds. Gut passage times ranged from 65 to 1675 min. Combined with cassowary movement data, this resulted in estimated dispersal distances of 12.5-5212 m, with a median distance of 387 m (quartile range 112-787 m). Native frugivores can be effective dispersers of weeds in rainforest and even terrestrial dispersers can provide long-distance dispersal. Importantly, though pond apple might be expected to be almost entirely dispersed downstream and along the margins of aquatic and marine habitats, cassowaries provide dispersal upstream and between drainages, leading to novel dispersal outcomes. Even through the provision of small quantities of novel dispersal outcomes, subordinate dispersal modes can play a significant role in determining invasion pattern and influence the ultimate success of control programs by providing dispersal to locations unattainable via the primary mode.

Dispersal and establishment of bird-dispersed weed and native species in early successional subtropical habitats

Eve White, Anna Barnes and Gabrielle Vivian-Smith recently published their paper 'Dispersal and establishment of bird-dispersed weed and native species in early successional subtropical habitats' in Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference. Eve also presented this paper at the conference. They investigated patterns of dispersal and establishment of bird-dispersed weeds and native species in early successional habitats in northern New South Wales. Patterns varied among growth forms, between native species and weeds, and among vegetation types. Their results indicated that the number of seeds dropped by birds is not necessarily a good predictor of recruitment and that post-dispersal factors, such as microsite characteristics, may be more important influences on seedling recruitment. This knowledge will assist with designing management strategies for bird-dispersed weeds in natural areas.

Comparative seed and dispersal ecology of three exotic subtropical Asparagus species

The genus Asparagus includes at least six invasive species in Australia. Asparagus aethiopicus and A. africanus are invasive in subtropical Australia, and a third species, A. virgatus is naturalized and demonstrates localized spread in south east Queensland. To better understand how the attributes of these species contribute to their invasiveness, we compared fruit and seed traits, germination, seedling emergence, seed survival, and time-to-maturity. We further investigated dispersal ecology of A. africanus, examining the diet of a local frugivore, the figbird (Sphecotheres viridis) and the effect of gut passage on seedling emergence. Overall, A. aethiopicus was superior in germination and emergence, with the highest mean germination (98.8%) and emergence (94.5%) under optimal conditions and higher emergence (mean of 73.3%) across all treatments. In contrast, A. africanus had the lowest germination under optimal conditions (71.7%) and low mean seedling emergence (49.5%), but had fruits with the highest relative yield (ratio of dry pulp to fruit fresh weight) that were favored by a local frugivore. Figbirds consumed large numbers of A. africanus fruits (~30% of all non-Ficus fruits), and seedling germination was not significantly affected by gut passage compared to unprocessed fruits. Asparagus virgatus germinated poorly under cool, light conditions (1.4%) despite a high optimum mean (95.0%) and had low mean performance across emergence treatments (36.3%). The species also had fruits with a low pulp return for frugivores. For all species, seed survival declined rapidly in the first 12 mo and fell to < 3.2% viability at 36 mo. On the basis of the traits considered, A. virgatus is unlikely to have the invasive potential of its congeners. Uniformly short seed survival times suggest that weed managers do not have to contend with a substantial persistent soil-stored seed bank, but frugivore-mediated dispersal beyond existing infestations will present a considerable management challenge.

Resin-foraging by colonies of Trigona sapiens and T. hockingsi (Hymenoptera: Apidae, Meliponini) and consequent seed dispersal of Corymbia torelliana (Myrtaceae).

Resins are a critical resource for stingless bees and resin-collecting bees act as seed dispersers in tropical plants. We describe the diurnal foraging patterns of colonies of Trigona sapiens and T. hockingsi on resin and pollen. We also document patterns of waste removal and seed dispersal of Corymbia torelliana. At most, only 10% of foragers collected resin or dispersed seed. Nevertheless, bees dispersed 1-3 seeds outside the nest per 5 minutes, and 38-114 seeds per day for each nest. The proportion of returning bees carrying pollen was highest in the morning for both species. The proportion of foragers returning with resin loads showed no significant diurnal variation in any season. Waste removal activity peaked in the afternoon for T. sapiens and in the morning for T. hockingsi. Seed removal peaked in the afternoon in one year only for T. sapiens. Bees dispersed thousands of seeds of C. torelliana over the season even though only a small proportion of the colony was engaged in seed transport.

Evidence for extensive population structure in the white-spotted eagle ray within the Indo-Pacific inferred from mitochondrial gene sequences

The white-spotted eagle ray Aetobatus narinari is a species complex that occurs circumglobally throughout warm-temperate waters. Aetobatus narinari is semi-pelagic and large (up to 300 cm disc width), suggesting high dispersal capabilities and gene flow on a wide spatial scale. Sequence data from two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome b (cytb) and NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4), were used to determine the genetic variability within and among 18 sampling locations in the central Indo-Pacific biogeographical region. Populations in the Indo-Pacific were highly genetically structured with c. 70% of the total genetic variation found among three geographical regions (East China Sea, Southeast Asia and Australia). FST was 0.64 for cytb and 0.53 for ND4, with φST values being even larger, that is, 0.78 for cytb and 0.65 for ND4. This high-level genetic partitioning provides strong evidence against extensive gene flow in A. narinari. The degree of genetic population structuring in the Indo-Pacific was similar to that found on a global scale. Global FST was 0.63 for cytb and 0.57 for ND4, and global φST values were 0.94 for cytb and 0.82 for ND4. This suggests that the A. narinari complex may be more speciose than the two or three species proposed to date. Further sampling and genetic analyses are likely to uncover the ‘evolutionarily significant’ and ‘management’ units that are critical to determine the susceptibilities of individual populations to regional fishing pressures and to provide advice on management options. Network analyses showed a close genetic relationship between haplotypes from the central Indo-Pacific and South Africa, providing support for a proposed dispersal pathway from the possible centre of origin of the A. narinari species complex in the Indo-Pacific into the Atlantic Ocean.

Determination of management units for grey mackerel fisheries in northern Australia.

The requirement for Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australian jurisdictions to ensure sustainable harvest of fish resources and their optimal use relies on robust information on the resource status. For grey mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus) fisheries, each of these jurisdictions has their own management regime in their corresponding waters. The lack of information on stock structure of grey mackerel, however, means that the appropriate spatial scale of management is not known. As well, fishers require assurance of future sustainability to encourage investment and long-term involvement in a fishery that supplies lucrative overseas markets. These management and fisher-unfriendly circumstances must be viewed in the context of recent 3-fold increases in catches of grey mackerel along the Queensland east coast, combined with significant and increasing catches in other parts of the species' northern Australian range. Establishing the stock structure of grey mackerel would also immensely improve the relevance of resource assessments for fishery management of grey mackerel across northern Australia. This highlighted the urgent need for stock structure information for this species. The impetus for this project came from the strategic recommendations of the FRDC review by Ward and Rogers (2003), "Northern mackerel (Scombridae: Scomberomorus): current and future research needs" (Project No. 2002/096), which promoted the urgency for information on the stock structure of grey mackerel. In following these recommendations this project adopted a multi-technique and phased sampling approach as carried out by Buckworth et al (2007), who examined the stock structure of Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson, across northern Australia. The project objectives were to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel across their northern Australian range, and use this information to define management units and their appropriate spatial scales. We used multiple techniques concurrently to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel. These techniques were: genetic analyses (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite DNA), otolith (ear bones) isotope ratios, parasite abundances, and growth parameters. The advantage of using this type of multi-technique approach was that each of the different methods is informative about the fish’s life history at different spatial and temporal scales. Genetics can inform about the evolutionary patterns as well as rates of mixing of fish from adjacent areas, while parasites and otolith microchemistry are directly influenced by the environment and so will inform about the patterns of movement during the fishes lifetime. Growth patterns are influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Due to these differences the use of these techniques concurrently increases the likelihood of detecting different stocks where they exist. We adopted a phased sampling approach whereby sampling was carried out at broad spatial scales in the first year: east coast, eastern Gulf of Carpentaria (GoC), western GoC, and the NW Northern Territory (NW NT). By comparing the fish samples from each of these locations, and using each of the techniques, we tested the null hypothesis that grey mackerel were comprised of a single homogeneous population across northern Australia. Having rejected the null hypothesis we re-sampled the 1st year locations to test for temporal stability in stock structure, and to assess stock structure at finer spatial scales. This included increased spatial coverage on the east coast, the GoC, and WA. From genetic approaches we determined that there at least four genetic stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia: WA, NW NT (Timor/Arafura), the GoC and the east Grey mackerel management units in northern Australia ix coast. All markers revealed concordant patterns showing WA and NW NT to be clearly divergent stocks. The mtDNA D-loop fragment appeared to have more power to resolve stock boundaries because it was able to show that the GoC and east coast QLD stocks were genetically differentiated. Patterns of stock structure on a finer scale, or where stock boundaries are located, were less clear. From otolith stable isotope analyses four major groups of S. semifasciatus were identified: WA, NT/GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Differences in the isotopic composition of whole otoliths indicate that these groups must have spent their life history in different locations. The magnitude of the difference between the groups suggests a prolonged separation period at least equal to the fish’s life span. The parasite abundance analyses, although did not include samples from WA, suggest the existence of at least four stocks of grey mackerel in northern Australia: NW NT, the GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Grey mackerel parasite fauna on the east coast suggests a separation somewhere between Townsville and Mackay. The NW NT region also appears to comprise a separate stock while within the GoC there exists a high degree of variability in parasite faunas among the regions sampled. This may be due to 1. natural variation within the GoC and there is one grey mackerel stock, or 2. the existence of multiple localised adult sub-stocks (metapopulations) within the GoC. Growth parameter comparisons were only possible from four major locations and identified the NW NT, the GoC, and the east coast as having different population growth characteristics. Through the use of multiple techniques, and by integrating the results from each, we were able to determine that there exist at least five stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia, with some likelihood of additional stock structuring within the GoC. The major management units determined from this study therefore were Western Australia, NW Northern Territory (Timor/Arafura), the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern east Queensland coast and central east Queensland coast. The management implications of these results indicate the possible need for management of grey mackerel fisheries in Australia to be carried out on regional scales finer than are currently in place. In some regions the spatial scales of management might continue as is currently (e.g. WA), while in other regions, such as the GoC and the east coast, managers should at least monitor fisheries on a more local scale dictated by fishing effort and assess accordingly. Stock assessments should also consider the stock divisions identified, particularly on the east coast and for the GoC, and use life history parameters particular to each stock. We also emphasise that where we have not identified different stocks does not preclude the possibility of the occurrence of further stock division. Further, this study did not, nor did it set out to, assess the status of each of the stocks identified. This we identify as a high priority action for research and development of grey mackerel fisheries, as well as a management strategy evaluation that incorporates the conclusions of this work. Until such time that these priorities are addressed, management of grey mackerel fisheries should be cognisant of these uncertainties, particularly for the GoC and the Queensland east coast.

Contagious dispersal of seeds of synchronously fruiting species beneath invasive and native fleshy-fruited trees

In subtropical Australia, many native and invasive plant species rely on a shared suite of frugivores, largely birds, for seed dispersal. Many native plants fruit during summer in this region, whereas most invasive plants fruit during winter, thus providing the opportunity for contagious dispersal of seeds beneath synchronously fruiting species. We sampled invasive and native seed rain beneath the canopy of a native summer-fruiting tree Guioa semiglauca and an invasive winter-fruiting tree Cinnamomum camphora, in three study sites over the course of a year. In July, during peak fruiting season for C. camphora and other invasive species, seed rain of invasive species was higher beneath C. camphora than G. semiglauca. This was partly due to the invasive tree Ligustrum lucidum, whose seed rain was three times higher beneath C. camphora than beneath the native tree. In February, seed rain of native species was more abundant beneath the canopy of G. semiglauca than beneath C. camphora, despite the fact that C. camphora was also fruiting at this time. This was probably due to the larger fruit crop produced by G. semiglauca at this time of year. Our study provides evidence that the presence of invasive bird-dispersed plants may facilitate contagious seed dispersal of other invaders, and likewise native species may facilitate seed spread of other native plants.

White shark (Carcharodon carcharias) microsatellite genotypes (six loci) from regions along Australia's southern and eastern coastline.

Despite international protection of white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias), important conservation parameters such as abundance, population structure and genetic diversity are largely unknown. The tissue of 97 predominately juvenile white sharks sampled from spatially distant eastern and southwestern Australian coastlines was sequenced for the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and genotyped with six nuclear-encoded microsatellite loci. MtDNA population structure was found between the eastern and southwestern coasts (FST = 0.142, p < 0.001), implying female natal philopatry. This concords with recent satellite and acoustic tracking findings which suggest the sustained presence of discrete east coast nursery areas. Furthermore, population subdivision was found between the same regions with biparentally inherited microsatellite markers (FST = 0.009, p <0.05), suggesting that males may also exhibit some degree of reproductive philopatry. Five sharks captured along the east coast had mtDNA haplotypes that resembled western Indian Ocean sharks more closely than Australian/New Zealand sharks, suggesting that transoceanic dispersal or migration resulting in breeding may occur sporadically. Our most robust estimate of contemporary genetic effective population size was low and below the threshold at which adaptive potential may be lost. For a variety of reasons, these contemporary estimates were at least one, possibly two orders of magnitude below our historical effective size estimates. Further population decline could expose these genetically isolated populations to detrimental genetic effects. Regional Australian white shark conservation management units should be implemented until genetic population structure, size and diversity can be investigated in more detail. Reference: Blower, D. C., Pandolfi, J. M., Gomez-Cabrera, M. del C., Bruce, B. D. & Ovenden, J. R. (In press - April 2012). Population genetics of Australian white sharks reveals fine-scale spatial structure, transoceanic dispersal events and low effective population sizes. Marine Ecology Progress Series.