From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

The potential geographic distribution of the invasive weed Senna obtusifolia in Australia

Senna obtusifolia (sicklepod) is an invasive weed of northern Australia, where it significantly impacts agricultural productivity and alters natural ecosystem structure and function. Although currently restricted to northern regions, the potential for S. obtusifolia to spread south is not known. Using the eco-climatic model CLIMEX, this study simulated the potential geographic distribution of S. obtusifolia in Australia under two scenarios. Model parameters for both scenarios were derived from the distribution of S. obtusifolia throughout North and Central America. The first scenario used these base model parameters to predict the distribution of S. obtusifolia in Australia, whilst the second model predicted the distribution of a cold susceptible S. obtusifolia ecotype that is reported to occur in the USA. Both models predicted the potential for an extensive S. obtusifolia distribution, with the first model indicating suitable climatic conditions occurring predominantly in coastal regions from the Northern Territory, to far north Queensland and into northern Victoria. The cold susceptible ecotype displayed a comparatively reduced distribution in the southern parts of Australia, where inappropriate temperatures, a lack of thermal accumulation and cold stress restrict the invasion south to the coastal regions of central New South Wales. The extent of the predicted distribution of both ecotypes of S. obtusifolia reinforces the need for strategic management at a national scale.

Determining changes in the distribution and abundance of a Rhyzopertha dominica phosphine resistance allele in farm grain storages using a DNA marker

BACKGROUND: The lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica (F.), is a highly destructive pest of stored grain that is strongly resistant to the fumigant phosphine (PH3). Phosphine resistance is due to genetic variants at the rph2 locus that alter the function of the dihydrolipoamide dehydrogenase (DLD) gene. This discovery now enables direct detection of resistance variants at the rph2 locus in field populations. RESULTS: A genotype assay was developed for direct detection of changes in distribution and frequency of a phosphine resistance allele in field populations of R. dominica. Beetles were collected from ten farms in south-east Queensland in 2006 and resampled in 2011. Resistance allele frequency increased in the period from 2006 to 2011 on organic farms with no history of phosphine use, implying that migration of phosphine-resistant R. dominica had occurred from nearby storages. CONCLUSION: Increasing resistance allele frequencies on organic farms suggest local movement of beetles and dispersal of insects from areas where phosphine has been used. This research also highlighted for the first time the utility of a genetic DNA marker in accurate and rapid determination of the distribution of phosphine-resistant insects in the grain value chain. Extending this research over larger landscapes would help in identifying resistance problems and enable timely pest management decisions. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry 69 6 June 2013 10.1002/ps.3514 Rapid Report Rapid Report © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Immediate, cumulative and residual effects of short- and long-term low plane of nutrition on milk protein and casein composition

Immediate and residual effects of two lengths of low plane of nutrition (PON) on the synthesis of milk protein and protein fractions were studied at the Mutdapilly Research Station, in south-east Queensland. Thirty-six multiparous Holstein-Friesian cows, between 46 and 102 days in milk (DIM) initially, were used in a completely randomised design experiment with three treatments. All cows were fed on a basal diet of ryegrass pasture (7.0 kg DM/cow.day), barley-sorghum concentrate mix (2.7 kg DM/cow.day) and a canola meal-mineral mix (1.3 kg DM/cow.day). To increase PON, 5.0 kg DM/cow.day supplemental maize and forage sorghum silage was added to the basal diet. The three treatments were (C) high PON (basal diet + supplemental silage); (L9) low PON (basal diet only) for a period of 9 weeks; and (L3) low PON (basal diet only) for a period of 3 weeks. The experiment comprised three periods (1) covariate – high PON, all groups (5 weeks), (2) period of low PON for either 3 weeks (L3) or 9 weeks (L9), and (3) period of high PON (all groups) to assess ability of cows to recover any production lost as a result of treatments (5 weeks). The low PON treatment periods for L3 and L9 were end-aligned so that all treatment groups began Period 3 together. Although there was a significant effect of L9 on yields of milk, protein, fat and lactose, and concentrations of true protein, whey protein and urea, these were not significantly different from L3. There were no residual effects of L3 or L9 on protein concentration or nitrogen distribution after 5 weeks of realimentation. There was no significant effect of low PON for 3 or 9 weeks on casein concentration or composition.