The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: an assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.

Evaluation of aerial photography for predicting trends in structural attributes of Australian woodland including comparison with ground-based monitoring data

The accurate assessment of trends in the woody structure of savannas has important implications for greenhouse accounting and land-use industries such as pastoralism. Two recent assessments of live woody biomass change from north-east Australian eucalypt woodland between the 1980s and 1990s present divergent results. The first estimate is derived from a network of permanent monitoring plots and the second from woody cover assessments from aerial photography. The differences between the studies are reviewed and include sample density, spatial scale and design. Further analyses targeting potential biases in the indirect aerial photography technique are conducted including a comparison of basal area estimates derived from 28 permanent monitoring sites with basal area estimates derived by the aerial photography technique. It is concluded that the effect of photo-scale; or the failure to include appropriate back-transformation of biomass estimates in the aerial photography study are not likely to have contributed significantly to the discrepancy. However, temporal changes in the structure of woodlands, for example, woodlands maturing from many smaller trees to fewer larger trees or seasonal changes, which affect the relationship between cover and basal area could impact on the detection of trends using the aerial photography technique. It is also possible that issues concerning photo-quality may bias assessments through time, and that the limited sample of the permanent monitoring network may inadequately represent change at regional scales

Non-destructive assessment of Arundo donax (Poaceae) leaf quality

Leaf carbon (C) content, leaf nitrogen (N) content, and C:N ratio are especially useful for understanding plant-herbivore interactions and may be important in developing control methods for the invasive riparian plant Arundo donax L. We measured C content, N content, C:N ratio, and chlorophyll index (SPAD 502 reading) for 768 leaves from A. donax collected over a five year period at several locations in California, Nevada, and Texas. Leaf N was more variable than leaf C, and thus we developed a linear regression equation for estimating A. donax leaf N from the leaf chlorophyll index (SPAD reading). When applied to two independent data sets, the equation (leaf N content % = -0.63 + 0.08 x SPAD) produced realistic estimates that matched seasonal and spatial trends reported from a natural A. donax population. Used in conjunction with the handheld SPAD 502 meter, the equation provides a rapid, non-destructive method for estimating A. donax leaf quality.

Buffel grass in Queensland's semi-arid woodlands: response to local and landscape scale variables, and relationship with grass, forb and reptile species.

Buffel grass [Pennisetum ciliare (L.) Link] has been widely introduced in the Australian rangelands as a consequence of its value for productive grazing, but tends to competitively establish in non-target areas such as remnant vegetation. In this study, we examined the influence landscape-scale and local-scale variables had upon the distribution of buffel grass in remnant poplar box (Eucalyptus populnea F. Muell.) dominant woodland fragments in the Brigalow Bioregion, Queensland. Buffel grass and variables thought to influence its distribution in the region were measured at 60 sites, which were selected based on the amount of native woodland retained in the landscape and patch size. An information-theoretic modelling approach and hierarchical partitioning revealed that the most influential variable was the percent of retained vegetation within a 1-km spatial extent. From this, we identified a critical threshold of similar to 30% retained vegetation in the landscape, above which the model predicted buffel grass was not likely to occur in a woodland fragment. Other explanatory variables in the model were site based, and included litter cover and long-term rainfall. Given the paucity of information on the effect of buffel grass upon biodiversity values, we undertook exploratory analyses to determine whether buffel grass cover influenced the distribution of grass, forb and reptile species. We detected some trends; hierarchical partitioning revealed that buffel grass cover was the most important explanatory variable describing habitat preferences of four reptile species. However, establishing causal links - particularly between native grass and forb species and buffel grass - was problematic owing to possible confounding with grazing pressure. We conclude with a set of management recommendations aimed at reducing the spread of buffel grass into remnant woodlands.

Defining critical soil nutrient concentrations in soils supporting grains and cotton in Northern NSW and Queensland

This project focussed on the phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) status of northern cropping soils. Stores of P and K have been depleted by crop removal and limited fertiliser application, with depletion most significant in the subsoil. Soil testing strategies are confounded by slowly available mineral reserves with uncertain availability. The utility of new soil tests was assessed to measure these reserves, their availability to plants quantified and a regional sampling strategy undertaken to identify areas of greatest P and K deficit. Fertiliser application strategies for P and K have been tested and the interactions between these and other nutrients have been determined in a large field program.

A market assessment and evaluation of structural roundwood products from hardwood pulp plantations.

Roundwood structures have always been used for temporary and low cost shelters and other fleeting structures. Novel concepts for the use of plantation hardwoods in roundwood form in construction were developed and circulated along with an electronic questionnaire to stakeholders representing growers, designers and users of hardwood. Responses indicate that there is a high level of interest in developing products from the emerging small roundwood resource and a detailed program of research was supported and recommended by the majority of participants in the survey. These results indicate a high level of support for further investigation into the use of plantation hardwood for roundwood components. Respondents representing a wide range of stakeholders have indicated that to gain benefit from a detailed project they would require solutions for connection systems and protection from pests and weathering, indications of cost and assurance of ongoing supply for niche applications, data for strength, acoustic dampening and thermal insulation properties, acceptance by regulatory authorities and training for on-site construction.

Rapid microsatellite marker development for African mahogany ( Khaya senegalensis, Meliaceae) using next-generation sequencing and assessment of its intra-specific genetic diversity.

Khaya senegalensis (African mahogany or dry-zone mahogany) is a high-value hardwood timber species with great potential for forest plantations in northern Australia. The species is distributed across the sub-Saharan belt from Senegal to Sudan and Uganda. Because of heavy exploitation and constraints on natural regeneration and sustainable planting, it is now classified as a vulnerable species. Here, we describe the development of microsatellite markers for K. senegalensis using next-generation sequencing to assess its intra-specific diversity across its natural range, which is a key for successful breeding programs and effective conservation management of the species. Next-generation sequencing yielded 93943 sequences with an average read length of 234bp. The assembled sequences contained 1030 simple sequence repeats, with primers designed for 522 microsatellite loci. Twenty-one microsatellite loci were tested with 11 showing reliable amplification and polymorphism in K. senegalensis. The 11 novel microsatellites, together with one previously published, were used to assess 73 accessions belonging to the Australian K. senegalensis domestication program, sampled from across the natural range of the species. STRUCTURE analysis shows two major clusters, one comprising mainly accessions from west Africa (Senegal to Benin) and the second based in the far eastern limits of the range in Sudan and Uganda. Higher levels of genetic diversity were found in material from western Africa. This suggests that new seed collections from this region may yield more diverse genotypes than those originating from Sudan and Uganda in eastern Africa.

Declining trends in annual catch rates of the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) in Queensland, Australia

Suitable long term species-specific catch rate and biological data are seldom available for large shark species, particularly where historical commercial logbook reporting has been poor. However, shark control programs can provide suitable data from gear that consistently fishes nearshore waters all year round. We present an analysis of the distribution of 4757 . Galeocerdo cuvier caught in surface nets and on drumlines across 9 of the 10 locations of the Queensland Shark Control Program (QSCP) between 1993 and 2010. Standardised catch rates showed a significant decline (p<. 0.0001) in southern Queensland locations for both gear types, which contrasts with studies at other locations where increases in tiger shark catch per unit effort (CPUE) have been reported. Significant temporal declines in the average size of tiger sharks occurred at four of the nine locations analysed (p<. 0.05), which may be indicative of fishing reducing abundance in these areas. Given the long term nature of shark control programs along the Australian east coast, effects on local abundance should have been evident many years ago, which suggests that factors other than the effects of shark control programs have also contributed to the decline. While reductions in catch rate are consistent with a decline in tiger shark abundance, this interpretation should be made with caution, as the inter-annual CPUE varies considerably at most locations. Nevertheless, the overall downward trend, particularly in southern Queensland, indicates that current fishing pressures on the species may be unsustainable. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Design and assessment of weirs for fish passage under drowned conditions

In aquatic systems, in-stream structures such as dams, weirs and road crossings can act as barriers to fish movement along waterways. There is a growing array of technological fish-pass solutions for the movement of fish across large structures such as weirs and dams. However, most existing weir structures lack dedicated fishways, and fish often have to rely on drowned conditions to move upstream. In order to assess the adequacy of a given or proposed weir for upstream fish passage under drowned conditions, it is necessary to determine, firstly, the hydraulic properties of the drowned weir with respect to the requirements of the fish community and, secondly, the duration and timing of drowning flows with respect to the hydrograph for the site and the likely timing of fish movements. This paper primarily addresses the first issue. A computer program has been developed and incorporated in a simple-to-operate spreadsheet for the determination of the hydraulic characteristics of a drowned weir which are important to fish movement. The program is based on a theoretical analysis of drowned weirs and subsequent extensive verification in laboratory experiments. Inputs to the program include site information comprising channel cross-section data, channel slope, and channel roughness, and weir information comprising weir height and the required minimum drowned depth over the weir for migrating fish passage. The program then calculates the flow rate at which the required level of drowning occurs, the velocity characteristics above the weir (including transverse distributions), and flow depths and velocities upstream and downstream of the weir. The paper discusses (briefly) the theoretical background of the program and its experimental verification. A case study is then presented that illustrates the use of the program in the field to assess fish passage opportunities at an existing weir and to develop a case for retrofitting a fishway. Some discussion is also provided on the contribution of a modelled drownout volume to the assessment of how significant a barrier a weir is to fish passage. It is shown that the program is an important new additional tool in the assessment of the adequacy of weir structures in providing for fish movement and informing associated fish passage solutions. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stock assessment of the Queensland east coast common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) fishery

Common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus is an iconic fish of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and is the most important fish for the commercial fishery there. Most of the catch is exported live to Asia. This stock assessment was undertaken in response to falls in catch sizes and catch rates in recent years, in order to gauge the status of the stock. It is the first stock assessment ever conducted of coral trout on the GBR, and brings together a multitude of different data sources for the first time. The GBR is very large and was divided into a regional structure based on the Bioregions defined by expert committees appointed by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) as part of the 2004 rezoning of the GBR. The regional structure consists of six Regions, from the Far Northern Region in the north to the Swains and Capricorn–Bunker Regions in the south. Regions also closely follow the boundaries between Bioregions. Two of the northern Regions are split into Subregions on the basis of potential changes in fishing intensity between the Subregions; there are nine Subregions altogether, which include four Regions that are not split. Bioregions are split into Subbioregions along the Subregion boundaries. Finally, each Subbioregion is split into a “blue” population which is open to fishing and a “green” population which is closed to fishing. The fishery is unusual in that catch rates as an indicator of abundance of coral trout are heavily influenced by tropical cyclones. After a major cyclone, catch rates fall for two to three years, and rebound after that. This effect is well correlated with the times of occurrence of cyclones, and usually occurs in the same month that the cyclone strikes. However, statistical analyses correlating catch rates with cyclone wind energy did not provide significantly different catch rate trends. Alternative indicators of cyclone strength may explain more of the catch rate decline, and future work should investigate this. Another feature of catch rates is the phenomenon of social learning in coral trout populations, whereby when a population of coral trout is fished, individuals quickly learn not to take bait. Then the catch rate falls sharply even when the population size is still high. The social learning may take place by fish directly observing their fellows being hooked, or perhaps heeding a chemo-sensory cue emitted by fish that are hooked. As part of the assessment, analysis of data from replenishment closures of Boult Reef in the Capricorn–Bunker Region (closed 1983–86) and Bramble Reef in the Townsville Subregion (closed 1992–95) estimated a strong social learning effect. A major data source for the stock assessment was the large collection of underwater visual survey (UVS) data collected by divers who counted the coral trout that they sighted. This allowed estimation of the density of coral trout in the different Bioregions (expressed as a number of fish per hectare). Combined with mapping data of all the 3000 or so reefs making up the GBR, the UVS results provided direct estimates of the population size in each Subbioregion. A regional population dynamic model was developed to account for the intricacies of coral trout population dynamics and catch rates. Because the statistical analysis of catch rates did not attribute much of the decline to tropical cyclones, (and thereby implied “real” declines in biomass), and because in contrast the UVS data indicate relatively stable population sizes, model outputs were unduly influenced by the unlikely hypothesis that falling catch rates are real. The alternative hypothesis that UVS data are closer to the mark and declining catch rates are an artefact of spurious (e.g., cyclone impact) effects is much more probable. Judging by the population size estimates provided by the UVS data, there is no biological problem with the status of coral trout stocks. The estimate of the total number of Plectropomus leopardus on blue zones on the GBR in the mid-1980s (the time of the major UVS series) was 5.34 million legal-sized fish, or about 8400 t exploitable biomass, with an 2 additional 3350 t in green zones (using the current zoning which was introduced on 1 July 2004). For the offshore regions favoured by commercial fishers, the figure was about 4.90 million legal-sized fish in blue zones, or about 7700 t exploitable biomass. There is, however, an economic problem, as indicated by relatively low catch rates and anecdotal information provided by commercial fishers. The costs of fishing the GBR by hook and line (the only method compatible with the GBR’s high conservation status) are high, and commercial fishers are unable to operate profitably when catch rates are depressed (e.g., from a tropical cyclone). The economic problem is compounded by the effect of social learning in coral trout, whereby catch rates fall rapidly if fishers keep returning to the same fishing locations. In response, commercial fishers tend to spread out over the GBR, including the Far Northern and Swains Regions which are far from port and incur higher travel costs. The economic problem provides some logic to a reduction in the TACC. Such a reduction during good times, such as when the fishery is rebounding after a major tropical cyclone, could provide a net benefit to the fishery, as it would provide a margin of stock safety and make the fishery more economically robust by providing higher catch rates during subsequent periods of depressed catches. During hard times when catch rates are low (e.g., shortly after a major tropical cyclone), a change to the TACC would have little effect as even a reduced TACC would not come close to being filled. Quota adjustments based on catch rates should take account of long-term trends in order to mitigate variability and cyclone effects in data.