Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Managing the risk of glyphosate resistance in Australian glyphosate-resistant cotton production systems

BACKGROUND: Glyphosate-resistant cotton varieties are an important tool for weed control in Australian cotton production systems. To increase the sustainability of this technology and to minimise the likelihood of resistance evolving through its use, weed scientists, together with herbicide regulators, industry representatives and the technology owners, have developed a framework that guides the use of the technology. Central to this framework is a crop management plan (CMP) and grower accreditation course. A simulation model that takes into account the characteristics of the weed species, initial gene frequencies and any associated fitness penalties was developed to ensure that the CMP was sufficiently robust to minimise resistance risks. RESULTS: The simulations showed that, when a combination of weed control options was employed in addition to glyphosate, resistance did not evolve over the 30 year period of the simulation. CONCLUSION: These simulations underline the importance of maintaining an integrated system for weed management to prevent the evolution of glyphosate resistance, prolonging the use of glyphosate-resistant cotton.

Feasibility of Cotton Production in the Burdekin

This project has shown the potential for cotton production in the region developed a range of tactics that can be deployed to minimise the impact of cloudy wet weather. These agronomic tactics have been published in a new book - NORpak - Cotton production and management guidelines for the Burdekin and NQ coastal dry tropics. This publication has been specifically targeted for local sugarcane producers who may stand to benefit by including cotton rotation crops into their current largely mono-culture production systems. This publication is available at http://www.cottoncrc.org.au/industry/Publications/Northern_Production.

Can sustainable cotton production systems be developed for tropical northern Australia?

This article reviews research coordinated by the Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) that investigated production issues for irrigated cotton at five targeted sites in tropical northern Australia, north of 21°S from Broome in Western Australia to the Burdekin in Queensland. The biotic and abiotic issues for cotton production were investigated with the aim of defining the potential limitations and, where appropriate, building a sustainable technical foundation for a future industry if it were to follow. Key lessons from the Cotton CRC research effort were: (1) limitations thought to be associated with cotton production in northern Australia can be overcome by developing a deep understanding of biotic and environmental constraints, then tailoring and validating production practices; and (2) transplanting of southern farming practices without consideration of local pest, soil and climatic factors is unlikely to succeed. Two grower guides were published which synthesised the research for new growers into a rational blueprint for sustainable cotton production in each region. In addition to crop production and environmental impact issues, the project identified the following as key elements needed to establish new cropping regions in tropical Australia: rigorous quantification of suitable land and sustainable water yields; support from governments; a long-term funding model for locally based research; the inclusion of traditional owners; and development of human capacity.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Evaluating legume species as alternative trap crops to chickpea for management of Helicoverpa spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in central Queensland cotton cropping systems

Mounting levels of insecticide resistance within Australian Helicoverpa spp. populations have resulted in the adoption of non-chemical IPM control practices such as trap cropping with chickpea, Cicer arietinum (L.). However, a new leaf blight disease affecting chickpea in Australia has the potential to limit its use as a trap crop. Therefore this paper evaluates the potential of a variety of winter-active legume crops for use as an alternative spring trap crop to chickpea as part of an effort to improve the area-wide management strategy for Helicoverpa spp. in central Queensland’s cotton production region. The densities of Helicoverpa eggs and larvae were compared over three seasons on replicated plantings of chickpea, Cicer arietinum (L.), field pea Pisum sativum (L), vetch, Vicia sativa (L.) and faba bean, Vicia faba (L.). Of these treatments, field pea was found to harbour the highest densities of eggs. A partial life table study of the fate of eggs oviposited on field pea and chickpea suggested that large proportions of the eggs laid on field pea suffered mortality due to dislodgment from the plants after oviposition. Plantings of field pea as a replacement trap crop for chickpea under commercial conditions confirmed the high level of attractiveness of this crop to ovipositing moths. The use of field pea as a trap crop as part of an areawide management programme for Helicoverpa spp. is discussed.

Improving on-farm cotton root growth and functioning under limited water

The objectives of this project over a 3 years study period are: 1) validation and on-farm adoption of improved root growth and functioning for managing cotton production under limited water and nitrogen nutrition; and 2) Delivering improved understanding of enhancing root growth and functioning to about 50% cotton growers in the regions leading towards a better adaptation to future climate driven challenges, particularly limited water availability in Queensland and New South Wales. The research is expected to be supported through cash and/or in-kind contributions by CRDC and Agri-Science Queensland (DEEDI).

Integrated Cotton Farming Systems for Central Queensland

This project has delivered outcomes that address major agronomic and crop protection issues closely linked to the profitability and sustainability of cotton production enterprises in CQ. From an agronomic perspective, the CQ environment was always though to support economically viable cotton production in a wide sowing window from the middle of September to early January prior to this research. The ideal positioning of Bollgard II varieties in the CQ planting window was, therefore, critical to the future of the local cotton industry because growers needed baseline information to determine how best to take advantage of the higher yield potential offered by the Bt cotton technology, optimise irrigation water use and fibre characteristics. The project’s outputs include a number of key agronomic findings. Over three growing seasons, Bollgard II crop planted in the traditional sowing window from the middle of September to the end of October consistently produced the highest yields. The project delivers a clear and quantitative assessment of the impacts of planting outside the traditional cropping window - a yield penalty of between 1-4 bales/ha for November and December planted cotton. Whilst yield penalties associated with December-planted crops are clearly linked to declining heat units in the second half of the crop and a cool finish, those associated with November-planted cotton are not consistent with the theoretical yield potential for this sowing date. Further research to understand and minimize the physiological constraints on November-planted cotton would give CQ cotton growers far greater flexibility to develop mixed/double/rotation cropping farming systems that are relevant to the rapidly evolving nature of Agricultural production in Australia. The equivalence of cultivar types with clearly distinguishable, genetically based growth habits, demonstrated in this project, gives growers important information for making varietal choices. The entomological outcomes of this project represent strategic and tactical tools that are highly relevant to the viability and profitability of the cotton industry in Australia. The future of the cotton industry is inextricably linked to the survival and efficacy of GM cotton. Research done in the Callide irrigation area demonstrates the unquestionable potential for development of alternative and highly effective resistance management strategies for Bollgard II using novel technologies and strategies based on products such as Magnet®. Magnet® and similar technologies will be increasingly important in strategies to preserve the shelf life and efficacy of current and future generations of GM technology. However, more research will be required to address logistical and operational issues related to these new technologies before they can be fully exploited in commercial production systems. From an economic perspective, SLW is the sleeping giant in terms of insect nemeses of cotton, particularly from the standpoint of climate change and an increasingly warmer production environment. An effective sampling and management strategy for SLW which has been delivered by this project will go a long way towards minimising production costs in an environment characterised by rapidly rising input costs. SLW has the potential to permanently debilitate the national cotton industry by influencing market sentiment and quality perceptions. Field validation of the SLW population sampling models and management options in the Dawson irrigation area cotton and southern Queensland during 2006-07 documents the robustness of the entomological research outcomes achieved through this project.

Using Trichogramma Westwood (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) for insect pest biological control in cotton crops: an Australian perspective.

Trichogramma Westwood egg parasitoids alone generally fail to suppress heliothine pests when released in established cotton-growing regions. Factors hindering their success include indiscriminate use of detrimental insecticides, compensation for minimal pest larval hatch due to their activity via reduced larval cannibalism or mortality in general, singly laid heliothine eggs avoiding detection and asynchronous development benefiting host over parasitoid. Yet, despite these limitations, relatively large Trichogramma pretiosum Riley populations pervade and effectively suppress Helicoverpa (Hardwick) pests in Australian Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis Berliner)-transgenic cotton, Gossypium hirsutum L., crops, especially in the Ord River Irrigation Area (ORIA) of tropical northern Australia, where their impact on the potentially resistant pest species, Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner), is considered integral to the local insecticide resistance management (IRM) strategy for continued, sustainable Bt-transgenic cotton production. When devoid of conventional insecticides, relatively warm and stable conditions of the early dry season in winter grown ORIA Bt-transgenic cotton crops are conducive to Trichogramma proliferation and biological control appears effective. Further, there is considerable scope to improve Trichogramma's biological control potential, in both the ORIA and established cotton-growing regions, via habitat manipulation. It is proposed that Trichogramma may prove equally effective in developing agricultural regions of monsoonal northern Australia, and that environmental constraints on Trichogramma survival, and those of other natural enemies, require due consideration prior to their successful application in biological control programs.

Processing Tomato Production in the Burdekin: Opportunities and Risks for Growers

The research undertaken here was in response to a decision by a major food producer in about 2009 to consider establishing processing tomato production in northern Australia. This was in response to a lack of water availability in the Goulburn Valley region following the extensive drought that continued until 2011. The high price of water and the uncertainty that went with it was important in making the decision to look at sites within Queensland. This presented an opportunity to develop a tomato production model for the varieties used in the processing industry and to use this as a case study along with rice and cotton production. Following some unsuccessful early trials and difficulties associated with the Global Financial Crisis, large scale studies by the food producer were abandoned. This report uses the data that was collected prior to this decision and contrasts the use of crop modelling with simpler climatic analyses that can be undertaken to investigate the impact of climate change on production systems. Crop modelling can make a significant contribution to our understanding of the impacts of climate variability and climate change because it harnesses the detailed understanding of physiology of the crop in a way that statistical or other analytical approaches cannot do. There is a high overhead, but given that trials are being conducted for a wide range of crops for a variety of purposes, breeding, fertiliser trials etc., it would appear to be profitable to link researchers with modelling expertise with those undertaking field trials. There are few more cost-effective approaches than modelling that can provide a pathway to understanding future climates and their impact on food production.

Stunted cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) fully recovers biomass and yield of seed cotton after delayed root inoculation with spores of an arbuscular mycorrhizal fungus (Glomus mosseae)

In the northern grain and cotton region of Australia, poor crop growth after long periods of fallow, called 'long-fallow' disorder, is caused by a decline of natural arbuscular-mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). When cotton was grown in large pots containing 22 kg of Vertisol from a field recently harvested from cotton in Central Queensland, plants in pasteurised soil were extremely stunted compared with plants in unpasteurised soil. We tested the hypothesis that this extreme stunting was caused by the absence of AMF and examined whether such stunted plants could recover from subsequent treatment with AMF spores and/or P fertiliser. At 42 days after sowing, the healthy cotton growing in unpasteurised soil had 48% of its root-length colonised with AMF, whereas the stunted cotton had none. After inoculation with AMF spores (6 spores/g soil of Glomus mosseae) and/or application of P fertiliser (50 mg P/kg soil) at 45 days after sowing, the stunted plants commenced to improve about 25 days after treatment, and continued until their total dry matter and seed cotton production equalled that of plants growing in unpasteurised soil with natural AMF. In contrast, non-mycorrhizal cotton grown without P fertiliser remained stunted throughout and produced no bolls and only 1% of the biomass of mycorrhizal cotton. Even with the addition of P fertiliser, non-mycorrhizal cotton produced only 64% of the biomass and 58% of the seed cotton (lint + seed) of mycorrhizal cotton plants. These results show that cotton is highly dependent on AMF for P nutrition and growth in Vertisol (even with high rates of P fertiliser), but can recover from complete lack of AMF and consequent stunting during at least the first 45 days of growth when treated with AMF spores and/or P fertiliser. This corroborates field observations in the northern region that cotton may recover from long-fallow disorder caused by low initial levels of AMF propagules in the soil as the AMF colonisation of its roots increases during the growing season.

Benefits of oxygation of subsurface drip-irrigation water for cotton in a Vertosol

Australian cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is predominantly grown on heavy clay soils (Vertosols). Cotton grown on Vertosols often experiences episodes of low oxygen concentration in the root-zone, particularly after irrigation events. In subsurface drip-irrigation (SDI), cotton receives frequent irrigation and sustained wetting fronts are developed in the rhizosphere. This can lead to poor soil diffusion of oxygen, causing temporal and spatial hypoxia. As cotton is sensitive to waterlogging, exposure to this condition can result in a significant yield penalty. Use of aerated water for drip irrigation (‘oxygation’) can ameliorate hypoxia in the wetting front and, therefore, overcome the negative effects of poor soil aeration. The efficacy of oxygation, delivered via SDI to broadacre cotton, was evaluated over seven seasons (2005–06 to 2012–13). Oxygation of irrigation water by Mazzei air-injector produced significantly (P < 0.001) higher yields (200.3 v. 182.7 g m–2) and water-use efficiencies. Averaged over seven years, the yield and gross production water-use index of oxygated cotton exceeded that of the control by 10% and 7%, respectively. The improvements in yields and water-use efficiency in response to oxygation could be ascribed to greater root development and increased light interception by the crop canopies, contributing to enhanced crop physiological performance by ameliorating exposure to hypoxia. Oxygation of SDI contributed to improvements in both yields and water-use efficiency, which may contribute to greater economic feasibility of SDI for broadacre cotton production in Vertosols.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

What influences fungal communities in cotton soils

Soilborne diseases such as Fusarium wilt, Black root rot and Verticillium wilt have significant impact on cotton production. Fungi are an important component of soil biota with capacity to affect pathogen inoculum levels and their disease causing potential. Very little is known about the soil fungal community structure and management effects in Australian cotton soils. We analysed surface soils from ongoing field experiments monitoring cotton performance and disease incidence in three cotton growing regions, collected prior to 2013 planting, for the genetic diversity and abundance as influenced by soil type, environment and management practices and link it with disease incidence and suppression. Results from the 28S LSU rRNA sequencing based analysis indicated a total of 370 fungal genera in all the cotton soils and the top 25 genera in abundance accounted for the major portion of total fungal community. There were significant differences in the composition and genetic diversity of soil fungi between the different field sites from the three cotton growing regions. Results for diversity indices showed significantly greater diversity in the long-term crop rotation experiment at Narrabri (F6E) and experiments at Cowan and Goondiwindi compared to the Biofumigation and D1 field experiments at ACRI, Narrabri. Diversity was lowest in the soils under brassica crop rotation in Biofumigation experiment. Overall, the diversity and abundance of soil fungal community varied significantly in the three cotton growing regions indicating soil type and environmental effects. These results suggest that changes in soil fungal community may play a notable role in soilborne disease incidence in cotton.