Prospects for predicting insect mortality in relation to changing phosphine concentrations

Typically, in bag-stack or silo fumigations the concentration of phosphine is not constant, and yet most of what is known about phosphine efficacy against grain insects comes from studies with fixed concentrations. Indeed, where changing concentration experiments have been performed, researchers have been unable to explain observed efficacy on the basis of data from fixed concentrations. The ability to predict insect mortality in relation to changing phosphine concentrations would facilitate the development of effective fumigation protocols. In this paper, we explore the prospects for making such predictions. After reviewing published and new results, we conclude that the commonly used concentration x time (Ct) product is unreliable for this purpose. New results, for a strongly resistant strain of Rhyzopertha dominica from Australia, suggest that the relationship Cnt = k may be useful for predicting mortality of this type of insect in changing concentrations. However, in the case of a strain of Sitophilus oryzae with a type of resistance common in Australian S. oryzae, the relationship Cnt = k proved to be less reliable.

Predicting mortality of phosphine-resistant adults of Sitophilus oryzae (L) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in relation to changing phosphine concentration

Adults of a phosphine-resistant strain of Sitophilus oryzae (L) were exposed to constant phosphine concentrations of 0.0035-0.9 mg litre(-1) for periods of between 20 and 168 h at 25 °C, and the effects of time and concentration on mortality were quantified. Adults were also exposed to a series of treatments lasting 48, 72 or 168 h at 25 °C, during which the concentration of phosphine was varied. The aim of this study was to determine whether equations from experiments using constant concentrations could be used to predict the efficacy of changing phosphine concentrations against adults of S oryzae. A probit plane without interaction, in which the logarithms of time (t) and concentration (C) were variables, described the effects of concentration and time on mortality in experiments with constant concentrations. A derived equation of the form C^nt = k gave excellent predictions of toxicity when applied to data from changing concentration experiments. The results suggest that for resistant S oryzae adults there is nothing inherently different between constant and changing concentration regimes, and that data collected from fixed concentrations can be used to develop equations for predicting mortality in fumigations in which phosphine concentration changes. This approach could simplify the prediction of efficacy of typical fumigations in which concentrations tend to rise and then fall over a period of days.

Modelling Mortality and Reproduction Rates for Management of Sheep Flocks in Northern Australia

By quantifying the effects of climatic variability in the sheep grazing lands of north western and western Queensland, the key biological rates of mortality and reproduction can be predicted for sheep. These rates are essential components of a decision support package which can prove a useful management tool for producers, especially if they can easily obtain the necessary predictors. When the sub-models of the GRAZPLAN ruminant biology process model were re-parameterised from Queensland data along with an empirical equation predicting the probability of ewes mating added, the process model predicted the probability of pregnancy well (86% variation explained). Predicting mortality from GRAZPLAN was less successful but an empirical equation based on relative condition of the animal (a measure based on liveweight), pregnancy status and age explained 78% of the variation in mortalities. A crucial predictor in these models was liveweight which is not often recorded on producer properties. Empirical models based on climatic and pasture conditions estimated from the pasture production model GRASP, predicted marking and mortality rates for Mitchell grass (Astrebla sp.) pastures (81% and 63% of the variation explained). These prediction equations were tested against independent data from producer properties and the model successfully validated for Mitchell grass communities.

Influence of nitrogen based supplements on live weight, fertility and mortality of heifers grazing dry season native pasture

Supplements containing urea or biuret were fed in the dry season to yearling and two year old pregnant heifers grazing native spear grass pastures in north Queensland. Liveweight change and survival during the dry season and fertility in the following year were measured. In the first experiment during a relatively favourable dry season, supplementation significantly (P<0.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (5 vs. 32 kg). In the following year during a drought, supplement significantly (P<.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (32 vs. 41 kg) and significantly (P <0.01) reduced mortalities (23.5% vs. 5.2%) in pregnant and lactating heifers. The supplement had no significant effect on subsequent fertility in either experiment. 14th Biennial Conference.

Minimising mortality in field and pot experiments using Heteronyx piceus Blanchard (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) eggs and larvae

The establishment of experimental populations of scarab larvae using eggs and early instar larvae has proven to be difficult for many researchers. Despite this, little work has been published examining ways to optimise establishment under artificial conditions. In this experiment, we examined the effect of shade and irrigation on the establishment of Heteronyx piceus Blanchard larvae introduced into pots as eggs and first-, second- and third-instar larvae to optimise artificial infestation techniques. The most important factor affecting larval establishment was the life stage introduced. Establishment of eggs and first instars was very low, with only 21% of eggs and 11% of first-instar larvae establishing. In contrast, 82% of second-instar larvae and 84% of third-instar larvae established successfully. The addition of shade marginally improved overall survival from 45% in the unshaded pots to 53% in the shaded pots. However, most of this increase was in the eggs and first instars. Irrigation did not improve survival. These results suggest that when introducing scarab larvae to field or pot experiments, second- or thirdinstar larvae should be used to maximise establishment. The provision of shade and supplementary irrigation is optional.

Association of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings with a rapid rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouse soils

A study was undertaken from 2004 to 2007 to investigate factors associated with decreased efficacy of metalaxyl to manage damping-off of cucumber in Oman. A survey over six growing seasons showed that growers lost up to 14.6% of seedlings following application of metalaxyl. No resistance to metalaxyl was found among Pythium isolates. Damping-off disease in the surveyed greenhouses followed two patterns. In most (69%) greenhouses, seedling mortality was found to occur shortly after transplanting and decrease thereafter (Phase-I). However, a second phase of seedling mortality (Phase-II) appeared 9-14 d after transplanting in about 31% of the surveyed greenhouses. Analysis of the rate of biodegradation of metalaxyl in six greenhouses indicated a significant increase in the rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouses, which encountered Phase-II damping-off. The half-life of metalaxyl dropped from 93 d in soil, which received no previous metalaxyl treatment to 14 d in soil, which received metalaxyl for eight consecutive seasons, indicating an enhanced rate of metalaxyl biodegradation after repeated use. Multiple applications of metalaxyl helped reduce the appearance of Phase-II damping-off. This appears to be the first report of rapid biodegradation of metalaxyl in greenhouse soils and the first report of its association with appearance of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings.

Effect of microwave radiation on seed mortality of rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora R.Br.), parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorous L.) and bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.)

A trial was undertaken to evaluate the effect of microwaves on seed mortality of three weed species. Seeds of rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora R.Br.), parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorous L.) and bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) were buried at six depths (0, 2.5, 5, 10, 20 and 40 cm) in coarse sand maintained at one of two moisture levels, oven dry or wet (field capacity), and then subjected to one of five microwave radiation durations of (0, 2, 4, 8 and 16 min). Significant interactions between soil moisture level, microwave radiation duration, seed burial depth and species were detected for mortality of seeds of all three species. Maximum seed mortality of rubber vine (88%), parthenium (67%) and bellyache bush (94%) occurred in wet soil irradiated for 16 min. Maximum seed mortality of rubber vine and bellyache bush seeds occurred in seeds buried at 2.5 cm depth whereas that of parthenium occurred in seeds buried at 10 cm depth. Maximum soil temperatures of 114.1 and 87.5°C in dry and wet soil respectively occurred at 2.5 cm depth following 16 min irradiation. Irrespective of the greater soil temperatures recorded in dry soil, irradiating seeds in wet soil generally increased seed mortality 2.9-fold compared with dry soil. Moisture content of wet soil averaged 5.7% compared with 0.1% for dry soil. Results suggest that microwave radiation has the potential to kill seeds located in the soil seed bank. However, many factors, including weed species susceptibility, determine the effectiveness of microwave radiation on buried seeds. Microwave radiation may be an alternative to conventional methods at rapidly depleting soil seed banks in the field, particularly in relatively wet soils that contain long lived weed seeds.

Effect of soil burial depth and wetting on mortality of diapausing larvae and patterns of post-diapause adult emergence of sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola (Coquillett) (Diptera: Cecidomyiidae)

In south-eastern Queensland, Australia, sorghum planted in early spring usually escapes sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola, attack. Experiments were conducted to better understand the role of winter diapause in the population dynamics of this pest. Emergence patterns of adult midge from diapausing larvae on the soil surface and at various depths were investigated during spring to autumn of 1987/88–1989/90. From 1987/88 to 1989/90, 89%, 65% and 98% of adult emergence, respectively, occurred during November and December. Adult emergence from larvae diapausing on the soil surface was severely reduced due to high mortality attributed to surface soil temperatures in excess of 40°C, with much of this mortality occurring between mid-September and mid-October. Emergence of adults from the soil surface was considerably delayed in the 1988/89 season compared with larvae buried at 5 or 10 cm which had similar emergence patterns for all three seasons. In 1989/90, when a 1-cm-deep treatment was included, there was a 392% increase in adult emergence from this treatment compared with deeper treatments. Some diapausing larvae on the surface did not emerge at the end of summer in only 1 year (1989/90), when 28.0% of the larvae on the surface remained in diapause, whereas only 0.8% of the buried larvae remained in diapause. We conclude that the pattern of emergence explains why spring plantings of sorghum in south-eastern Queensland usually escape sorghum midge attack.

Investigation of movement and factors influencing post-release survival of line-caught coral reef fish using recreational tag-recapture data

Six species of line-caught coral reef fish (Plectropomus spp., Lethrinus miniatus, Lethrinus laticaudis, Lutjanus sebae, Lutjanus malabaricus and Lutjanus erythropterus) were tagged by members of the Australian National Sportsfishing Association (ANSA) in Queensland between 1986 and 2003. Of the 14,757 fish tagged, 1607 were recaptured and we analysed these data to describe movement and determine factors likely to impact release survival. All species were classified as residents since over 80% of recaptures for each species occurred within 1 km of the release site. Few individuals (range 0.8-5%) were recaptured more than 20 km from their release point. L. sebae had a higher recapture rate (19.9%) than the other species studied (range 2.1-11.7%). Venting swimbladder gases, regardless of whether or not fish appeared to be suffering from barotrauma, significantly enhanced (P < 0.05) the survival of L. sebae and L. malabaricus but had no significant effect (P > 0.05) on L. erythropterus. The condition of fish on release, subjectively assessed by anglers, was only a significant effect on recapture rate for L. sebae where fish in "fair" condition had less than half the recapture rate of those assessed as in "excellent" or "good" condition. The recapture rate of L. sebae and L. laticaudis was significantly (P < 0.05) affected by depth with recapture rate declining in depths exceeding 30 m. Overall, the results showed that depth of capture, release condition and treatment for barotrauma influenced recapture rate for some species but these effects were not consistent across all species studied. Recommendations were made to the ANSA tagging clubs to record additional information such as injury, hooking location and hook type to enable a more comprehensive future assessment of the factors influencing release survival.

Abundance and mortality of overwintering pupae of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) on the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia

Surveys were conducted between 1997 and 2001 to investigate the incidence of overwintering Helicoverpa spp. pupae under summer crop residues on the Darling Downs, Queensland. Only Helicoverpa armigera was represented in collections of overwintering pupae. The results indicated that late-season crops of cotton, sorghum, maize, soybean, mungbean and sunflower were equally likely to have overwintering pupae under them. In the absence of tillage practices, these crops had the potential to produce similar numbers of moths/ha in the spring. There were expected differences between years in the densities of overwintering pupae and the number of emerged moths/ha. Irrigated crops produced 2.5 times more moths/ha than dryland crops. Overall survival from autumn-formed pupae to emerged moths averaged 44%, with a higher proportion of pupae under maize surviving to produce moths than each of the other crops. Parasitoids killed 44.1% of pupae, with Heteropelma scaposum representing 83.3% of all parasitoids reared from pupae. Percentage parasitism levels were lower in irrigated crops (27.6%) compared with dryland crops (40.5%). Recent changes to Helicoverpa spp. management in cotton/grain-farming systems in south-eastern Queensland, including widespread adoption of Bt cotton, and use of more effective and more selective insecticides, could lead to lower densities of overwintering pupae under late summer crops.

The mortality of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) neonate larvae in relation to drop-off and soil surface temperature: The dangers of bungy jumping

The first larval instar has been identified as a critical stage for population mortality in Lepidoptera, yet due to the body size of these larvae, the factors that contribute to mortality under field conditions are still not clear. Dispersal behaviour has been suggested as a significant, but ignored factor contributing to mortality in first-instar lepidopteran larvae. The impact that leaving the host plant has on the mortality rate of Helicoverpa armigera neonates was examined in field crops and laboratory trials. In this study the following are examined: (1) the effects of soil surface temperature, and the level of shade within the crop, on the mortality of neonates on the soil after dropping off from the host plant; (2) the percentage of neonates that dropped off from a host plant and landed on the soil; and (3) the effects of exposure to different soil surface temperatures on the development and mortality of neonates. The findings of this study showed that: (1) on the soil, surface temperatures above 43°C were lethal for neonates, and exposure to these temperatures contributed greatly to the overall mortality rate observed; however, the fate of neonates on the soil varied significantly depending on canopy closure within the crop; (2) at least 15% of neonates dropped off from the host plant and landed on the soil, meaning that the proportion of neonates exposed to these condition is not trivial; and (3) 30 min exposure to soil surface temperatures approaching the lethal level (>43°C) has no significant negative effects on the development and mortality of larvae through to the second instar. Overall leaving the plant through drop-off contributes to first-instar mortality in crops with open canopies; however, survival of neonates that have lost contact with a host plant is possible, and becomes more likely later in the crop growing season.

Thermal requirements, field mortality and population phenology modelling of Paropsis atomaria Olivier, an emergent pest in subtropical hardwood plantations

Paropsis atomaria is a recently emerged pest of eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. Its broad host range of at least 20 eucalypt species and wide geographical distribution provides it the potential to become a serious forestry pest both within Australia and, if accidentally introduced, overseas. Although populations of P. atomaria are genetically similar throughout its range, population dynamics differ between regions. Here, we determine temperature-dependent developmental requirements using beetles sourced from temperate and subtropical zones by calculating lower temperature thresholds, temperature-induced mortality, and day-degree requirements. We combine these data with field mortality estimates of immature life stages to produce a cohort-based model, ParopSys, using DYMEX™ that accurately predicts the timing, duration, and relative abundance of life stages in the field and number of generations in a spring–autumn (September–May) field season. Voltinism was identified as a seasonally plastic trait dependent upon environmental conditions, with two generations observed and predicted in the Australian Capital Territory, and up to four in Queensland. Lower temperature thresholds for development ranged between 4 and 9 °C, and overall development rates did not differ according to beetle origin. Total immature development time (egg–adult) was approximately 769.2 ± S.E. 127.8 DD above a lower temperature threshold of 6.4 ± S.E. 2.6 °C. ParopSys provides a basic tool enabling forest managers to use the number of generations and seasonal fluctuations in abundance of damaging life stages to estimate the pest risk of P. atomaria prior to plantation establishment, and predict the occurrence and duration of damaging life stages in the field. Additionally, by using local climatic data the pest potential of P. atomaria can be estimated to predict the risk of it establishing if accidentally introduced overseas. Improvements to ParopSys’ capability and complexity can be made as more biological data become available.

Effect of DNA extraction on ageing success in coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) otoliths

To maximize the information commonly collected from otoliths, the effect of DNA extraction on the estimation of age with otoliths was evaluated by comparing sagittal otolith samples from common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) for clarity and ageing discrepancies in DNA-extracted and untreated control otoliths. The DNA extraction process had no significant effect, indicating that archived otoliths can be used as a source of DNA while retaining their utility for age estimation.

Reducing the short-term mortality of juvenile school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi) discarded during trawling

A field experiment was carried out in southeastern Australia to assess the short-term mortality and stress incurred by juvenile school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi) discarded from an estuarine trawler. Some 35% of the prawns died up to 72 h after being caught in a trawl, exposed to air during sorting and separation from the retained catch (as per normal commercial procedures), then discarded into replicate cages. Total mortality was partitioned into that caused by trawling (about 16% of mortalities), and by subsequent sorting and grading (about 19%). Assuming that the majority of the non-penaeid bycatch is excluded from trawls (by the use of bycatch reduction devices), the latter mortalities could be almost eliminated by sorting and separating unwanted school prawns in water-filled compartments. Emersion stress was measured as concentrations of l-lactate in the haemolymph, which were elevated for at least 40 min following capture, but similar among all trawled treatments. l-lactate levels decreased within the first 24 h post-capture, then remained constant over at least the next 48 h, and were greater than baseline levels. The potential benefits associated with subtle changes to handling practices onboard estuarine trawlers are discussed.

Time-dependent instantaneous mortality rates from multiple tagging experiments with exact times of release and recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).