5 resultados para Continuous-time Markov Chain
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
Equid herpesvirus 1 (EHV1) is a major disease of equids worldwide causing considerable losses to the horse industry. A variety of techniques, including PCR have been used to diagnose EHV1. Some of these PCRs were used in combination with other techniques such as restriction enzyme analysis (REA) or hybridisation, making them cumbersome for routine diagnostic testing and increasing the chances of cross-contamination. Furthermore, they involve the use of suspected carcinogens such as ethidium bromide and ultraviolet light. In this paper, we describe a real-time PCR, which uses minor groove-binding probe (MGB) technology for the diagnosis of EHV1. This technique does not require post-PCR manipulations thereby reducing the risk of cross-contamination. Most importantly, the technique is specific; it was able to differentiate EHV1 from the closely related member of the Alphaherpesvirinae, equid herpesvirus 4 (EHV4). It was not reactive with common opportunistic pathogens such as Escherichia coli, Klebsiella oxytoca, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Enterobacter agglomerans often involved in abortion. Similarly, it did not react with equine pathogens such as Streptococcus equi, Streptococcus equisimilis, Streptococcus zooepidemicus, Taylorella equigenitalis and Rhodococcus equi, which also cause abortion. The results obtained with this technique agreed with results from published PCR methods. The assay was sensitive enough to detect EHV1 sequences in paraffin-embedded tissues and clinical samples. When compared to virus isolation, the test was more sensitive. This test will be useful for the routine diagnosis of EHV1 based on its specificity, sensitivity, ease of performance and rapidity.
Resumo:
A multiplex real-time PCR was developed for the detection and differentiation of two closely related bovine herpesviruses 1 (BoHV-1) and 5 (BoHV-5). The multiplex real-time PCR combines a duplex real-time PCR that targets the DNA polymerase gene of BoHV-1 and BoHV-5 and a real-time PCR targeting mitochondrial DNA, as a house-keeping gene, described previously by Cawthraw et al. (2009). The assay correctly identified 22 BoHV-1 and six BoHV-5 isolates from the Biosecurity Sciences Laboratory virus collection. BoHV-1 and BoHV-5 were also correctly identified when incorporated in spiked semen and brain tissue samples. The detection limits of the duplex assay were 10 copies of BoHV-1 and 45 copies of BoHV-5. The multiplex real-time PCR had reaction efficiencies of 1.04 for BoHV-1 and 1.08 for BoHV-5. Standard curves relating Ct value to template copy number had correlation coefficients of 0.989 for BoHV-1 and 0.978 for BoHV-5. The assay specificity was demonstrated by testing bacterial and viral DNA from pathogens commonly isolated from bovine respiratory and reproductive tracts. The validated multiplex real-time PCR was used to detect and differentiate BoHV-1 and BoHV-5 in bovine clinical samples with known histories.
Resumo:
The Old World screwworm fly (OWS), Chrysomya bezziana Villeneuve (Diptera: Calliphoridae), is a myiasis-causing blowfly of major concern for both animals and humans. Surveillance traps are used in several countries for early detection of incursions and to monitor control strategies. Examination of surveillance trap catches is time-consuming and is complicated by the presence of morphologically similar flies that are difficult to differentiate from Ch. bezziana, especially when the condition of specimens is poor. A molecular-based method to confirm or refute the presence of Ch. bezziana in trap catches would greatly simplify monitoring programmes. A species-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay was designed to target the ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer 1 (rDNA ITS1) of Ch. bezziana. The assay uses both species-specific primers and an OWS-specific Taqman MGB probe. Specificity was confirmed against morphologically similar and related Chrysomya and Cochliomyia species. An optimal extraction protocol was developed to process trap catches of up to 1000 flies and the assay is sensitive enough to detect one Ch. bezziana in a sample of 1000 non-target species. Blind testing of 29 trap catches from Australia and Malaysia detected Ch. bezziana with 100% accuracy. The probability of detecting OWS in a trap catch of 50 000 flies when the OWS population prevalence is low (one in 1000 flies) is 63.6% for one extraction. For three extractions (3000 flies), the probability of detection increases to 95.5%. The real-time PCR assay, used in conjunction with morphology, will greatly increase screening capabilities in surveillance areas where OWS prevalence is low.
Resumo:
Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.
Resumo:
Many aquatic species are linked to environmental drivers such as temperature and salinity through processes such as spawning, recruitment and growth. Information is needed on how fished species may respond to altered environmental drivers under climate change so that adaptive management strategies can be developed. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a highly prized species of the Indo-West Pacific, whose recruitment and growth is driven by river discharge. We developed a monthly age- and length-structured population model for barramundi. Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations were used to explore the population's response to altered river discharges under modelled total licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate Model A1FI. Mean values of exploitable biomass, annual catch, maximum sustainable yield and spawning stock size were significantly reduced under scenarios where river discharge was reduced; despite including uncertainty. These results suggest that the upstream use of water resources and climate change have potential to significantly reduce downstream barramundi stock sizes and harvests and may undermine the inherent resilience of estuarine-dependent fisheries. © 2012 CSIRO.