6 resultados para Contingent claim
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
In tropical forests, natural disturbance creates opportunities for species to claim previously utilized space and resources and is considered an important mechanism in the maintenance of species diversity. However, ecologists have long recognized that disturbance also promotes exotic plant invasions. Cyclones cause extensive defoliation, loss of major branches and multiple tree falls, resulting in a significantly more open canopy and increased light and heat levels in the understorey. The widespread and massive disturbance caused by cyclones provides ideal conditions for rapid recruitment and spread of invasive species. The ecological roles of invasive species in rainforest habitats following such a severe disturbance are poorly understood. Severe category 4 Cyclone Larry crossed the North Queensland coast in March 2006 causing massive disturbance to rainforest habitats from Tully to Cairns and west to the Atherton Tablelands. We established 10 plots in an area extensively damaged by this cyclone near El Arish in North Queensland. On each plot nine 2 × 2 m quadrats were established with three quadrats per plot in each of the following treatments: (i) complete debris removal down to the soil layer, (ii) removal of coarse woody debris only, and (iii) uncleared. We monitored recruitment, growth and mortality of all native and invasive species in the 90 quadrats every 3 months since the cyclone. Here we present the recruitment dynamics of invasive species across the study area in relation to the level of disturbance, the type of quadrat treatment, and the diversity and abundance of the native recruiting flora over the first 12 months post-cyclone. Our results suggest that invasive species will mostly comprise a transient component of the flora in the early stages of the successional response. However, some species may have longer-term effects on the successional trajectory of the rainforest and future forest composition and structure.
Resumo:
The fungal disease chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is enigmatic because it occurs globally in both declining and apparently healthy (non-declining) amphibian populations. This distribution has fueled debate concerning whether, in sites where it has recently been found, the pathogen was introduced or is endemic. In this study, we addressed the molecular population genetics of a global collection of fungal strains from both declining and healthy amphibian populations using DNA sequence variation from 17 nuclear loci and a large fragment from the mitochondrial genome. We found a low rate of DNA polymorphism, with only two sequence alleles detected at each locus, but a high diversity of diploid genotypes. Half of the loci displayed an excess of heterozygous genotypes, consistent with a primarily clonal mode of reproduction. Despite the absence of obvious sex, genotypic diversity was high (44 unique genotypes out of 59 strains). We provide evidence that the observed genotypic variation can be generated by loss of heterozygosity through mitotic recombination. One strain isolated from a bullfrog possessed as much allelic diversity as the entire global sample, suggesting the current epidemic can be traced back to the outbreak of a single clonal lineage. These data are consistent with the current chytridiomycosis epidemic resulting from a novel pathogen undergoing a rapid and recent range expansion. The widespread occurrence of the same lineage in both healthy and declining populations suggests that the outcome of the disease is contingent on environmental factors and host resistance.
Resumo:
This paper examines the idea that plasticity in farm management introduces resilience to change and allows farm businesses to perform when operating in highly variable environments. We also argue for the need to develop and apply more integrative assessments of farm performance that combine the use of modelling tools with deliberative processes involving farmers and researchers in a co-learning process, to more effectively identify and implement more productive and resilient farm businesses. In a plastic farming system, farm management is highly contingent on environmental conditions. In plastic farming systems farm managers constantly vary crops and inputs based on the availability of limited and variable resources (e.g. land, water, finances, labour, machinery, etc.), and signals from its operating environment (e.g. climate, markets), with the objective of maximising a number of, often competing, objectives (e.g. maximise profits, minimise risks, etc.). In contrast in more rigid farming systems farm management is more calendar driven and relatively fixed sequences of crops are regularly followed over time and across the farm. Here we describe the application of a whole farm simulation model to (i) compare, in silico, the sensitivity of two farming systems designs of contrasting levels of plasticity, operating in two contrasting environments, when exposed to a stressor in the form of climate change scenarios;(ii) investigate the presence of interactions and feedbacks at the field and farm levels capable of modifying the intensity and direction of the responses to climate signals; and (iii) discuss the need for the development and application of more integrative assessments in the analysis of impacts and adaptation options to climate change. In both environments, the more plastic farm management strategy had higher median profits and was less risky for the baseline and less intensive climate change scenarios (2030). However, for the more severe climate change scenarios (2070), the benefit of plastic strategies tended to disappear. These results suggest that, to a point, farming systems having higher levels of plasticity would enable farmers to more effectively respond to climate shifts, thus ensuring the economic viability of the farm business. Though, as the intensity of the stress increases (e.g. 2070 climate change scenario) more significant changes in the farming system might be required to adapt. We also found that in the case studies analysed here, most of the impacts from the climate change scenarios on farm profit and economic risk originated from important reductions in cropping intensity and changes in crop mix rather than from changes in the yields of individual crops. Changes in cropping intensity and crop mix were explained by the combination of reductions in the number of sowing opportunities around critical times in the cropping calendar, and to operational constraints at the whole farm level i.e. limited work capacity in an environment having fewer and more concentrated sowing opportunities. This indicates that indirect impacts from shifts in climate on farm operations can be more important than direct impacts from climate on the yield of individual crops. The results suggest that due to the complexity of farm businesses, impact assessments and opportunities for adaptation to climate change might also need to be pursued at higher integration levels than the crop or the field. We conclude that plasticity can be a desirable characteristic in farming systems operating in highly variable environments, and that integrated whole farm systems analyses of impacts and adaptation to climate change are required to identify important interactions between farm management decision rules, availability of resources, and farmer's preference.
Resumo:
Pasture degradation, particularly that attributable to overgrazing, is a significant problem across the northern Australian rangelands. Although grazing studies have identified the scope for wet season resting strategies to be used to rehabilitate degraded pastures, the economic outcome of these strategies has not been extensively demonstrated. An exploratory study of the prospective economic value of wet season resting is presented using an economic simulation model of a 28000 ha beef enterprise located in the Charters Towers region of north-eastern Australia to explore seven hypothetical scenarios centred on the projected performance of a wet season resting strategy. A series of 20-year simulations for a range of pasture recovery profiles, stocking capacity, animal productivity responses, beef prices and agistment options are compared with a baseline scenario of taking no action. Estimates of the net present value of the 20-year difference in total enterprise gross margins between the various resting options and the 'do nothing' option identify that wet season resting can offer a positive economic return for the range of scenarios examined, although this is contingent on the assumptions that are made concerning the trajectories of change in carrying capacity and animal productivity. Some implications for management and policy making to support the practical implementation of wet season resting strategies are discussed.
Resumo:
Madeira vine (Anredera cordifolia (Ten.) Steenis) is a climber in the angiosperm family Basellaceae. It is native to South America and has naturalised in Australia. It is regarded as a serious environmental weed because of the structural damage it causes to native vegetation. The present study, for the first time, documents anatomical and morphological traits of the leaves of A. cordifolia and considers their implications for its ecology and physiology. Plants were grown under three different light levels, and anatomical and morphological leaf characters were compared among light levels, among cohorts, and with documented traits of the related species, Basella alba L. Stomata were present on both the adaxial and abaxial sides of the leaf, with significantly more stomata on the abaxial side and under high light. This may account for the ability of this species to fix large amounts of carbon and rapidly respond to light gaps. The leaves had very narrow veins and no sclerenchyma, suggesting a low construction cost that is associated with invasive plants. There was no significant difference in any of the traits among different cohorts, which agrees with the claim that A. cordifolia primarily propagates vegetatively. The anatomy and morphology of A. cordifolia was similar to that of B. alba.
Resumo:
There is limited understanding about how insect movement patterns are influenced by landscape features, and how landscapes can be managed to suppress pest phytophage populations in crops. Theory suggests that the relative timing of pest and natural enemy arrival in crops may influence pest suppression. However, there is a lack of data to substantiate this claim. We investigate the movement patterns of insects from native vegetation (NV) and discuss the implications of these patterns for pest control services. Using bi-directional interception traps we quantified the number of insects crossing an NV/crop ecotone relative to a control crop/crop interface in two agricultural regions early in the growing season. We used these data to infer patterns of movement and net flux. At the community-level, insect movement patterns were influenced by ecotone in two out of three years by region combinations. At the functional-group level, pests and parasitoids showed similar movement patterns from NV very soon after crop emergence. However, movement across the control interface increased towards the end of the early-season sampling period. Predators consistently moved more often from NV into crops than vice versa, even after crop emergence. Not all species showed a significant response to ecotone, however when a response was detected, these species showed similar patterns between the two regions. Our results highlight the importance of NV for the recruitment of natural enemies for early season crop immigration that may be potentially important for pest suppression. However, NV was also associated with crop immigration by some pest species. Hence, NV offers both opportunities and risks for pest management. The development of targeted NV management may reduce the risk of crop immigration by pests, but not of natural enemies.