Evaluation of the Australian branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa) eradication program

Because weed eradication programs commonly take 10 or more years to complete, there is a need to evaluate progress toward the eradication objective. We present a simple model, based on information that is readily obtainable, that assesses conformity to the delimitation and extirpation criteria for eradication. It is applied to the program currently targeting the annual parasitic weed, branched broomrape, in South Australia. The model consists of delimitation and extirpation (E) measures plotted against each other to form an 'eradograph.' Deviations from the 'ideal' eradograph plot can inform tactical responses, e.g., increases in survey and/or control effort. Infestations progress from the active phase to the monitoring phase when no plants have been detected for at least 12 mo. They revert to the active phase upon further detection of plants. We summarize this process for the invasion as a whole in a state-and-transition model. Using this model we demonstrate that the invasion is unlikely to be delimited unless the amount of newly detected infested area decreases, on average, by at least 50% per annum. As a result of control activities implemented, on average approximately 70% (range, 44 to 86%) of active infestations progressed to the monitoring phase in the year following their detection. Simulations suggest that increasing this rate of transition will not increase E to a significant extent. The rate of reversion of infestations from the monitoring phase to the active phase decreased logarithmically with time since last detection, but it is likely that lower rates of reversion would accelerate the trend toward extirpation. Program performance with respect to the delimitation criterion has been variable; performance with respect to the extirpation criterion would be improved considerably by the development and application of cost-effective methods for eliminating branched broomrape soil seed populations.

Risk management for mycotoxin contamination of Australian maize

Recent incidents of mycotoxin contamination (particularly aflatoxins and fumonisins) have demonstrated a need for an industry-wide management system to ensure Australian maize meets the requirements of all domestic users and export markets. Results of recent surveys are presented, demonstrating overall good conformity with nationally accepted industry marketing standards but with occasional samples exceeding these levels. This paper describes mycotoxin-related hazards inherent in the Australian maize production system and a methodology combining good agricultural practices and the hazard analysis critical control point framework to manage risk.

Evaluation of weed eradication programs: containment and extirpation

Weed eradication programs often require 10 years or more to achieve their objective. It is important that progress is evaluated on a regular basis so that programs that are 'on track' can be distinguished from those that are unlikely to succeed. Earlier research has addressed conformity of eradication programs to the delimitation criterion. In this paper evaluation in relation to the containment and extirpation criteria is considered. Because strong evidence of containment failure (i.e. spread from infestations targeted for eradication) is difficult to obtain, it generally will not be practicable to evaluate how effective eradication programs are at containing the target species. However, chronic failure of containment will be reflected in sustained increases in cumulative infested area and thus a failure to delimit a weed invasion. Evaluating the degree of conformity to the delimitation and extirpation criteria is therefore sufficient to give an appraisal of progress towards the eradication objective. A significant step towards eradication occurs when a weed is no longer readily detectable at an infested site, signalling entry to the monitoring phase. This transition will occur more quickly if reproduction is prevented consistently. Where an invasion consists of multiple infestations, the monitoring profile (frequency distribution of time since detection) provides a summary of the overall effectiveness of the eradication program in meeting the extirpation criterion. Eradication is generally claimed when the target species has not been detected for a period equal to or greater than its seed longevity, although there is often considerable uncertainty in estimates of the latter. Recently developed methods, which take into consideration the cost of continued monitoring vs. the potential cost of damage should a weed escape owing to premature cessation of an eradication program, can assist managers to decide when to terminate weed eradication programs.