Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry

The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.

Drivers for uptake of environmental management systems by pastoralists in western Queensland

Pastoralists from 37 beef cattle and sheep properties in western Queensland developed and implemented an environmental management system (EMS) over 18 months. The EMS implemented by them was customised for the pastoral industry as part of a national EMS pilot project, and staff from this project encouraged and assisted pastoralists during this trial. The 31 pastoralists surveyed at the end of the pilot project identified few benefits of EMS implementation, and these were largely associated with environmental management and sustainability. In terms of the reasons for uptake of an EMS, these pastoralists identified drivers similar to those reported in other primary industry sectors. These included improving property and environmental management, financial incentives, a range of market benefits, assistance with red tape issues, access to other training opportunities and assistance and support with the development of their EMS. However, these drivers are weak, and are not motivating pastoralists to adopt an EMS. In contrast, barriers to adoption such as the time involved in developing and implementing EMS are tangible and immediate. Given a lack of effective drivers and that pastoralists are under considerable pressure from ongoing rural adjustment processes, it is not surprising that an EMS is a low priority. It is concluded that widespread uptake and on-going use of an EMS in the pastoral industry will not occur unless pastoralists are required or rewarded for this by markets, governments, financiers, and regional natural resource management bodies.

Climatic-requirements models of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) to prioritise areas for exploration and release of biological control agents

Climate matching software (CLIMEX) was used to prioritise areas to explore for biological control agents in the native range of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), and to prioritise areas to release the agents in the introduced ranges of the plant. The native distribution of cat's claw creeper was used to predict the potential range of climatically suitable habitats for cat's claw creeper in its introduced ranges. A Composite Match Index (CMI) of cat's claw creeper was determined with the 'Match Climates' function in order to match the ranges in Australia and South Africa where the plant is introduced with its native range in South and Central America. This information was used to determine which areas might yield climatically-adapted agents. Locations in northern Argentina had CMI values which best matched sites with cat's claw creeper infestations in Australia and South Africa. None of the sites from where three currently prioritised biological control agents for cat's claw creeper were collected had CMI values higher than 0.8. The analysis showed that central and eastern Argentina, south Brazil, Uruguay and parts of Bolivia and Paraguay should be prioritised for exploration for new biological control agents for cat's claw creeper to be used in Australia and South Africa.

Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

Timing of infection of macadamia fruit by Pseudocercospora macadamiae and climatic effects on growth and spore germination.

Pseudocercospora macadamiae causes husk spot of macadamia. Husk spot control would be improved by verifying the stages in fruit development susceptible to infection, and determine some of the climatic conditions likely to lead to high disease pressure periods in the field. Our results showed that the percent conidia germination and growth of germ tubes and mycelia of P. macadamiae were greatest at 26 degrees C, with better conidia germination associated with high relative humidity and free water. The exposure of match-head-sized and pea-sized fruit stages to natural P. macadamiae inoculum in the field led to 2 5-fold increases in husk spot incidence, and up to 8.5-fold increases in premature abscission, compared with unexposed fruit. Exposure of fruit stages later than match-head-sized and pea-sized fruit generally caused no further increases in disease incidence or premature abscission. Climatic conditions were found to have a strong influence on the behaviour of P. macadamiae, the host, oil accumulation, and the subsequent impact of husk spot on premature abscission. Our findings suggest that fungicide application should target fruit at the match-head-sized stage of development in order to best reduce yield losses, particularly in seasons where oil accumulation in fruit is prolonged and climatic conditions are optimal for P. macadamiae.

Quantifying the effects of climate change and water abstraction on a population of barramundi (Lates calcarifer), a diadromous estuarine finfish

Many aquatic species are linked to environmental drivers such as temperature and salinity through processes such as spawning, recruitment and growth. Information is needed on how fished species may respond to altered environmental drivers under climate change so that adaptive management strategies can be developed. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a highly prized species of the Indo-West Pacific, whose recruitment and growth is driven by river discharge. We developed a monthly age- and length-structured population model for barramundi. Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations were used to explore the population's response to altered river discharges under modelled total licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate Model A1FI. Mean values of exploitable biomass, annual catch, maximum sustainable yield and spawning stock size were significantly reduced under scenarios where river discharge was reduced; despite including uncertainty. These results suggest that the upstream use of water resources and climate change have potential to significantly reduce downstream barramundi stock sizes and harvests and may undermine the inherent resilience of estuarine-dependent fisheries. © 2012 CSIRO.

Micro-economic drivers of profitability in an ITQ-managed fishery: An analysis of the Queensland Coral Reef Fin-Fish Fishery

An economic survey of the commercial operators currently active in the Queensland Coral Reef Fin-Fish Fishery has been carried out, as part of a research project aimed at evaluating alternative management options for this fishery. This paper presents the background analysis used as a basis to develop the sampling design for this survey. The background analysis focuses on activity patterns of the fleet based on effort and catch information, as well as patterns of quota ownership. Based on this information, a fishing business profile describing the micro-economic structure of fishing operations is developed. This profile, in conjunction with the qualitative information gained in undertaking the economic surveys, allows preliminary understanding of the key drivers of profitability in the CRFFF, and possible impacts of external factors on fishing operations.

The Genetic Architecture of Climatic Adaptation of Tropical Cattle

Adaptation of global food systems to climate change is essential to feed the world. Tropical cattle production, a mainstay of profitability for farmers in the developing world, is dominated by heat, lack of water, poor quality feedstuffs, parasites, and tropical diseases. In these systems European cattle suffer significant stock loss, and the cross breeding of taurine x indicine cattle is unpredictable due to the dilution of adaptation to heat and tropical diseases. We explored the genetic architecture of ten traits of tropical cattle production using genome wide association studies of 4,662 animals varying from 0% to 100% indicine. We show that nine of the ten have genetic architectures that include genes of major effect, and in one case, a single location that accounted for more than 71% of the genetic variation. One genetic region in particular had effects on parasite resistance, yearling weight, body condition score, coat colour and penile sheath score. This region, extending 20 Mb on BTA5, appeared to be under genetic selection possibly through maintenance of haplotypes by breeders. We found that the amount of genetic variation and the genetic correlations between traits did not depend upon the degree of indicine content in the animals. Climate change is expected to expand some conditions of the tropics to more temperate environments, which may impact negatively on global livestock health and production. Our results point to several important genes that have large effects on adaptation that could be introduced into more temperate cattle without detrimental effects on productivity.

Strategic tillage in no-till farming systems in Australia’s northern grains-growing regions: I. Drivers and implementation

Development of no-tillage (NT) farming has revolutionized agricultural systems by allowing growers to manage greater areas of land with reduced energy, labour and machinery inputs to control erosion, improve soil health and reduce greenhouse gas emission. However, NT farming systems have resulted in a build-up of herbicide-resistant weeds, an increased incidence of soil- and stubble-borne diseases and enrichment of nutrients and carbon near the soil surface. Consequently, there is an increased interest in the use of an occasional tillage (termed strategic tillage, ST) to address such emerging constraints in otherwise-NT farming systems. Decisions around ST uses will depend upon the specific issues present on the individual field or farm, and profitability and effectiveness of available options for management. This paper explores some of the issues with the implementation of ST in NT farming systems. The impact of contrasting soil properties, the timing of the tillage and the prevailing climate exert a strong influence on the success of ST. Decisions around timing of tillage are very complex and depend on the interactions between soil water content and the purpose for which the ST is intended. The soil needs to be at the right water content before executing any tillage, while the objective of the ST will influence the frequency and type of tillage implement used. The use of ST in long-term NT systems will depend on factors associated with system costs and profitability, soil health and environmental impacts. For many farmers maintaining farm profitability is a priority, so economic considerations are likely to be a primary factor dictating adoption. However, impacts on soil health and environment, especially the risk of erosion and the loss of soil carbon, will also influence a grower’s choice to adopt ST, as will the impact on soil moisture reserves in rainfed cropping systems.

The host specificity and climatic suitability of the gall flyCecidochares connexa(Diptera: Tephritidae), a potential biological control agent for Chromolaena odorata(Asteraceae) in Australia

The gall fly Cecidochares connexa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a potential biological control agent for Chromolaena odorata in Australia. Its host specificity was determined against 18 species in the tribe Eupatorieae (Family Asteraceae) in which C. odorata belongs, in quarantine in Brisbane, Australia. Oviposition occurred and flies developed on only C. odorata and Praxelis clematidea, both of which are in the subtribe Praxelinae. P. clematidea is considered a weed outside tropical America. In both multiple-species-minus-C. odorata choice tests and single-species no-choice tests, the mean number of galls/plant was significantly greater on C. odorata (48 and 41, respectively) than on P. clematidea (2 and 9, respectively). There were also significantly more adults emerging from C. odorata (mean 129 and 169, respectively) in the two types of tests than from P. clematidea (1 and 8, respectively). Paired choice, multiple generation (continuation) and time dependent tests further clarified the extent that C. connexa could develop on P. clematidea. In these tests, the mean number of galls formed and the mean number of emerging adults were consistently less for P. clematidea than C. odorata and populations of C. connexa could not be maintained on P. clematidea. Galls were not seen on any other plant species tested. This study supports the results of host specificity testing conducted in seven other countries and confirms that C. connexa poses little risk to other plant species in Australia. C. connexa has been released in 10 countries and an application seeking approval to release in Australia has been submitted to the Australian Government.