24 resultados para Chance constraint
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).
Resumo:
Peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) lines exhibiting high levels of resistance to peanut stripe virus (PStV) were obtained following microprojectile bombardment of embryogenic callus derived from mature seeds. Fertile plants of the commercial cultivars Gajah and NC7 were regenerated following co-bombardmentwith the hygromycin resistance gene and one of two forms of the PStV coat protein (CP) gene, an untranslatable, full length sequence (CP2) or a translatable gene encoding a CP with an N-terminal truncation (CP4). High level resistance to PStV was observed for both transgenes when plants were challenged with the homologous virus isolate. The mechanism of resistance appears to be RNA-mediated, since plants carrying either the untranslatable CP2 or CP4 had no detectable protein expression, but were resistant or immune (no virus replication). Furthermore, highly resistant, but not susceptible CP2 T0 plants contained transgene-specific small RNAs. These plants now provide important germplasm for peanut breeding, particularly in countries where PStV is endemic and poses a major constraint to peanut production.
Resumo:
Large larval populations of the scarabaeid beetle Heteronyx piceus Blanchard that occur under peanuts, but not maize, in the South Burnett region of Australia are the result of a high rate and prolonged period of egg production by females feeding on peanut foliage. Heteronyx piceus is a relatively sedentary species and movement of females between adjacent fields is low. Populations of H. piceus varied markedly with landscape position. High larval populations are more likely (1 in 4 chance) to be encountered on the ‘scrub’ soils in the upper parts of the landscape than in the ‘forest’ soils in the lower half (1 in 20 chance), indicating that soil type/landscape position is a key risk factor in assessing the need for management intervention. The studies indicate that, because of the species' sedentary nature, the most meaningful population entity for management of H. piceus is the individual field, rather than the whole-farm or the region. The implications of this population ecology for management of the pest are discussed in relation to control strategies.
Resumo:
Nezara viridula (L.) is a cosmopolitan, polyphagous heteropteran that causes economic damage to many crop species. At present, control of N. viridula in Australia and other countries relies heavily upon insecticides, most of which are disruptive to beneficial insects, constituting a constraint on integrated pest management (IPM). Much research has been conducted into non-chemical control methods for N. viridula. This paper reviews the potential for and limitations of sterile insect technique, classical, inundative and conservation biological control, and trap cropping. None of these techniques appear to be adequate for control of N. viridula when used alone but there is scope for these non-chemical approaches to be adopted for use in integrated management of this pest. A proposal is given for one such integrated approach for future development. It includes biopesticides, trap crops and carefully targeted habitat manipulation to enhance arthropod natural enemies as well as area-wide management and grower education.
Resumo:
Salinity, sodicity, acidity, and phytotoxic levels of chloride (Cl) in subsoils are major constraints to crop production in many soils of north-eastern Australia because they reduce the ability of crop roots to extract water and nutrients from the soil. The complex interactions and correlations among soil properties result in multi-colinearity between soil properties and crop yield that makes it difficult to determine which constraint is the major limitation. We used ridge-regression analysis to overcome colinearity to evaluate the contribution of soil factors and water supply to the variation in the yields of 5 winter crops on soils with various levels and combinations of subsoil constraints in the region. Subsoil constraints measured were soil Cl, electrical conductivity of the saturation extract (ECse), and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). The ridge regression procedure selected several of the variables used in a descriptive model, which included in-crop rainfall, plant-available soil water at sowing in the 0.90-1.10 m soil layer, and soil Cl in the 0.90-1.10 m soil layer, and accounted for 77-85% of the variation in the grain yields of the 5 winter crops. Inclusion of ESP of the top soil (0.0-0.10 m soil layer) marginally increased the descriptive capability of the models for bread wheat, barley and durum wheat. Subsoil Cl concentration was found to be an effective substitute for subsoil water extraction. The estimates of the critical levels of subsoil Cl for a 10% reduction in the grain yield were 492 mg cl/kg for chickpea, 662 mg Cl/kg for durum wheat, 854 mg Cl/kg for bread wheat, 980 mg Cl/kg for canola, and 1012 mg Cl/kg for barley, thus suggesting that chickpea and durum wheat were more sensitive to subsoil Cl than bread wheat, barley, and canola.
Resumo:
Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.
Resumo:
Spontaneous mutation or chance seedling: discovered in the mid-1990s as a superior plant growing in a commercial field of “Common” Cynodon dactylon on Jimboomba Turf Company’s farm at Jimboomba in south-east Queensland. Selection criteria: vigorous lateral spread, high shoot density and turf quality, low inflorescence numbers, and darker green colour. In 1999 after observing the superior turf performance of this mutant plant as a small patch within a much larger paddock of “Common”, vegetative material was taken and propagated in clean ground elsewhere on the farm for multiplication and further trials in a variety of turf situations in south-east Queensland. Propagation: vegetative. Breeder: Lynn Davidson, Jimboomba, QLD. PBR Certificate Number 2640, Application Number 2002/282, granted 24 February 2005.
Resumo:
Open-pollination: originated as a chance seedling from Z44 (maternal clonal parent), obtained from Beltsville MD in 1981, with an unknown pollen source from a zoysia grass germplasm field nursery at the Texas Agricultural Experiment Station in Dallas. ‘Palisades’ was selected over the parent Z44 on the basis of its lower tendency to produce thatch, its excellent lateral growth habit and its superior mowing qualities. ‘Palisades’ has been vegetatively propagated, and is uniform in growth expression. No seedling establishment from ‘Palisades’ has been noticed in either greenhouse or field studies. Selection criteria: rapid regrowth and spread by, and/or from, stolons and rhizomes; turf colour and density; tolerance to low mowing; winter hardiness; shade tolerance; low water use requirements. Propagation: vegetative. Breeder: Milton C. Engelke, Dallas, USA. PBR Certificate Number 2594, Application Number 2001/199, granted 26 October 2004.
Resumo:
Chance seedling: observed in about 1989 as a distinctly coarser textured, densely matting, darker green mutant bermuda grass plant growing among the hybrid ‘Tifgreen’ on the eighth green at the Townsville Golf Course. Although ‘TL1’ was selected from a sward of the hybrid Bermuda grass ‘Tifgreen’, its inflorescence structure (4, not 3, racemes per inflorescence), agronomic attributes (e.g. its tolerance to certain herbicides), and its DNA profile are consistent with a chance seedling of Cynodon dactylon rather than a mutant plant of hybrid (C. dactylon x transvaalensis) origin. Selection criteria: exceptionally short stolon internodes resulting in an extremely tight knit stolon mat under close (c. 5-6 mm) but not very close (c. 3-4 mm) mowing; very deep, strong rhizome system; very dark green colour; tolerates shade better than other Australian bermuda grass varieties of common knowledge (except for ‘Plateau’A); and remains low growing under heavy tropical cloud cover even after 6-8 months. Designated ‘TL1’ by Tropical Lawns Pty Ltd and trialed successfully during the late 1990s and early 2000s in high wear situations (e.g. golf tees) in north Queensland. Propagation: vegetative. Breeder: Barry McDonagh, Townsville, QLD. PBR Certificate Number 2638, Application Number 2002/267, granted 24 February 2005.
Resumo:
Spontaneous mutation or chance seedling: discovered in 2001 as a superior plant growing among “Common” green couch on the breeder’s turf farm at Berries Road, Childers. A selected piece of sod was removed and broken into vegetative sprigs to propagate a larger area of this variety elsewhere on the breeder’s property. The original plant has now been multiplied vegetatively three times without showing any discernible off types. Selection criteria: dense prostrate habit and limited inflorescence production (giving a low mowing requirement), high turf quality, dark green colour. Propagation: vegetative. Breeder: Robert William Morrow, Childers, QLD. PBR Certificate Number 2844, Application Number 2004/035, granted 22 August 2005.
Resumo:
‘SDX-1’ originated as an open-pollinated chance seeding in an old green of ‘Adalayd’ seashore paspalum (US Plant Patent 3939) surrounded by an undefined local ecotype of the same species. ‘SDX-1’ was finer textured and had a denser, more prostrate growth habit than its putative parents which are ‘Adalayd’ (maternal) and an undefined parental genotype growing among the surrounding local ecotype. ‘SDX-1’ was compared with other promising seedlings discovered similarly at the same time, and was selected on the basis of its dwarf growth habit, tolerance of low cutting height, turf density, fine-textured growth, and apparent salt tolerance under field conditions. Breeder: Stewart T Bennett, Paul H Tillman, Michael DePew, Enviro Turf LC, Terkonsha, MI, USA. PBR Certificate Number 3660, Application Number 2006/160, granted 16 December 2008.
Resumo:
Spotted gum (Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata and C. maculata) is a valuable source of commercial timber and suitable for a wide range of different soil types in eastern Australia. The main biological constraint to further expansion of spotted gum plantations is Quambalaria shoot blight caused by the fungus Quambalaria pitereka. Surveys conducted to evaluate the impact of Quambalaria shoot blight have shown that the disease is present in all spotted gum plantations and on a range of Corymbia species and hybrids in subtropical and tropical regions surveyed in eastern Australia. More recently, Q. eucalypti has also been identified from a range of Eucalyptus species in these regions. Both pathogens have also been found associated with foliage blight and die-back of amenity trees and Q. pitereka in native stands of Corymbia species, which is the probable initial infection source for plantations. Infection by Q. pitereka commonly results in the repeated destruction of the growing tips and the subsequent formation of a bushy crown or death of trees in severe cases. In comparison, Q. eucalypti causes small, limited lesions and has in some cases been associated with insect feeding. It has not been recorded as causing severe shoot and stem blight. A better understanding of factors influencing disease development and host-pathogen interactions is essential in the development of a disease management strategy for these poorly understood but important pathogens in the rapidly expanding eucalypt (Corymbia and Eucalyptus spp.) plantation industry in subtropical and tropical eastern Australia.
Resumo:
The productivity of a fisheries resource can be quantified from estimates of recruitment, individual growth and natural and fisheries-related mortality, assuming the spatial extent of the resource has been quantified and there is minimal immigration or emigration. The sustainability of a fisheries resource is facilitated by management controls such as minimum and maximum size limits and total allowable catch. Minimum size limits are often set to allow individuals the opportunity to reproduce at least once before the chance of capture. Total allowable catches are a proportion of the population biomass, which is estimated based on known reproduction, recruitment, mortality and growth rates. In some fisheries, however, management actions are put in place without quantification of the resource through the stock assessment process. This occurs because species-specific information, for example individual growth, may not be available. In these circumstances, management actions need to be precautionary to protect against future resource collapse, but this often means that the resource is lightly exploited. Consequently, the productivity of the resource is not fully realised. Australia’s most valuable fisheries are invertebrate fisheries (Australian Department of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry, 2008). For example, Australian fisheries (i.e. excluding aquaculture) production of crustaceans (largely prawns, rock lobster and crab) was 41,000 tonnes in 2006/7, worth $778 million. Production from mollusc (largely abalone, scallops, oysters and squid) fisheries was 39,000 tonnes, worth $502 million. Together, in 2006/7 crustacean and mollusc fisheries represented 58% of the total value of Australian wild fisheries production. Sustainable management of Australia’s invertebrate fisheries is frustrated by the lack of data on species-specific growth rates. This project investigated a new method to estimate age, and hence individual growth rates, in invertebrate fisheries species. The principle behind the new aging method was that telomeres (i.e. DNA end-caps of chromosomes) get shorter as an individual gets older. We studied commercial crustacean and molluscan species. A vertebrate fish species (silver perch, Bidyanus bidyanus) was used as a control to standardise our work against the literature. We found a clear relationship between telomere length and shell size for temperate abalone (Haliotis rubra). Further research is recommended before the method can be implemented to assist management of wildharvested abalone populations. Age needs to be substituted for shell size in the relationship and it needs to be studied for abalone from several regions. This project showed that telomere length declined with increasing age in Sydney rock oysters (Saccostrea glomerata) and was affected by regional variation. A relationship was not apparent between telomere length and age (or size as a surrogate for age) for crustacean species (school prawns, Metapenaeus macleayi; eastern rock lobster, Sagmariasus verreauxi; southern rock lobster, Jasus edwardsii; and spanner crabs, Ranina ranina). For school prawns, there was no difference between telomere length in males and females. Further research is recommended, however, as telomeric DNA from crustaceans was difficult to analyse using the terminal restriction fragment (TRF) assay. Telomere lengths of spanner crabs and lobsters were at the upper limit of resolution of the assay used and results were affected by degradation and possible contamination of telomeric DNA. It is possible that telomere length is an indicator of remaining lifespan in molluscan and crustacean individuals, as suggested for some vertebrate species (e.g. Monaghan, 2010). Among abalone of similar shell size and among lobster pueruli, there was evidence of individuals having significantly longer or shorter telomeres than the group average. At a population level, this may be a surrogate for estimates of future natural mortality, which may have usefulness in the management of those populations. The method used to assay telomere length (terminal restriction fragment assay) performed adequately for most species, but it was too expensive and time-consuming to be considered a useful tool for gathering information for fisheries management. Research on alternative methods is strongly recommended.
Resumo:
Phytophthora root rot (PRR), caused by P. cinnamomi, is a primary constraint on avocado productivity in Australia. Numerous field trials at sites in northern NSW and southern QLD have demonstrated significant variation in tree health amongst commercial rootstocks and recently selected material, grown under high PRR disease pressure. Selections 'SHSR-02', 'SHSR-04', ungrafted 'Hass' (rooted cuttings from clonal propagation) and the commercial rootstock 'DusaTM' were significantly healthier over time than other rootstocks, many of which died during the course of the trials. 'Reed' was consistently highly susceptible. In many cases superior tree health was associated with increased tree height and trunk girth. The trials also clearly demonstrate the negative impact of Phytophthora root rot on establishment of new avocado production blocks, and the importance of identifying and selecting avocado rootstock material that can withstand high P. cinnamomi disease pressure.
Resumo:
Radopholus similis is a major constraint to banana production in Australia and growers have relied on nematicides to manage production losses. The use of organic amendments is one method that may reduce the need for nematicides, but there is limited knowledge of the influence of organic amendments on endo-migratory nematodes, such as R. similis. Nine different amendments, namely, mill mud, mill ash, biosolids, municipal waste compost, banana residue, grass hay, legume hay, molasses and calcium silicate were applied to the three major soil types of the wet tropics region used for banana production. The nutrient content of the amendments was also determined. Banana plants were inoculated with R. similis and grown in the soil-amendment mix for 12-weeks in a glasshouse experiment. Assessments of plant growth, plant-parasitic nematodes and soil nematode community characteristics were made at the termination of the experiment. Significant suppression of plant-parasitic nematodes occurred in soils amended with legume hay, grass hay, banana residue and mill mud relative to untreated soil. These amendments were found to have the highest N and C content. The application of banana residue and mill mud significantly increased shoot dry weight at the termination of the experiment relative to untreated soil. Furthermore, the applications of banana residue, grass hay, mill mud and municipal waste compost increased the potential for suppression of plant-parasitic nematodes through antagonistic activity. The application of amendments that are high in C and N appeared to be able to induce suppression of plant-parasitic nematodes in bananas, by developing a more favourable environment for antagonistic organisms.