Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Statistical forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop

Three types of forecasts of the total Australian production of macadamia nuts (t nut-in-shell) have been produced early each year since 2001. The first is a long-term forecast, based on the expected production from the tree census data held by the Australian Macadamia Society, suitably scaled up for missing data and assumed new plantings each year. These long-term forecasts range out to 10 years in the future, and form a basis for industry and market planning. Secondly, a statistical adjustment (termed the climate-adjusted forecast) is made annually for the coming crop. As the name suggests, climatic influences are the dominant factors in this adjustment process, however, other terms such as bienniality of bearing, prices and orchard aging are also incorporated. Thirdly, industry personnel are surveyed early each year, with their estimates integrated into a growers and pest-scouts forecast. Initially conducted on a 'whole-country' basis, these models are now constructed separately for the six main production regions of Australia, with these being combined for national totals. Ensembles or suites of step-forward regression models using biologically-relevant variables have been the major statistical method adopted, however, developing methodologies such as nearest-neighbour techniques, general additive models and random forests are continually being evaluated in parallel. The overall error rates average 14% for the climate forecasts, and 12% for the growers' forecasts. These compare with 7.8% for USDA almond forecasts (based on extensive early-crop sampling) and 6.8% for coconut forecasts in Sri Lanka. However, our somewhatdisappointing results were mainly due to a series of poor crops attributed to human reasons, which have now been factored into the models. Notably, the 2012 and 2013 forecasts averaged 7.8 and 4.9% errors, respectively. Future models should also show continuing improvement, as more data-years become available.

The genetic effective and adult census size of an Australian population of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus)

This study compares estimates of the census size of the spawning population with genetic estimates of effective current and long-term population size for an abundant and commercially important marine invertebrate, the brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus). Our aim was to focus on the relationship between genetic effective and census size that may provide a source of information for viability analyses of naturally occurring populations. Samples were taken in 2001, 2002 and 2003 from a population on the east coast of Australia and temporal allelic variation was measured at eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. Moments-based and maximum-likelihood estimates of current genetic effective population size ranged from 797 to 1304. The mean long-term genetic effective population size was 9968. Although small for a large population, the effective population size estimates were above the threshold where genetic diversity is lost at neutral alleles through drift or inbreeding. Simulation studies correctly predicted that under these experimental conditions the genetic estimates would have non-infinite upper confidence limits and revealed they might be overestimates of the true size. We also show that estimates of mortality and variance in family size may be derived from data on average fecundity, current genetic effective and census spawning population size, assuming effective population size is equivalent to the number of breeders. This work confirms that it is feasible to obtain accurate estimates of current genetic effective population size for abundant Type III species using existing genetic marker technology.

A hidden Markov model approach for determining vessel activity from vessel monitoring system data.

Many fisheries worldwide have adopted vessel monitoring systems (VMS) for compliance purposes. An added benefit of these systems is that they collect a large amount of data on vessel locations at very fine spatial and temporal scales. This data can provide a wealth of information for stock assessment, research, and management. However, since most VMS implementations record vessel location at set time intervals with no regard to vessel activity, some methodology is required to determine which data records correspond to fishing activity. This paper describes a probabilistic approach, based on hidden Markov models (HMMs), to determine vessel activity. A HMM provides a natural framework for the problem and, by definition, models the intrinsic temporal correlation of the data. The paper describes the general approach that was developed and presents an example of this approach applied to the Queensland trawl fishery off the coast of eastern Australia. Finally, a simulation experiment is presented that compares the misallocation rates of the HMM approach with other approaches.

Fisheries Queensland Long Term Monitoring Program Underwater Visual Census of twenty-four reefs on the Great Barrier Reef between 1999 and 2004.

In 1999, the Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation (DEEDI), Fisheries Queensland undertook a new initiative to collect long term monitoring data of various important stocks including reef fish. This data and monitoring manual for the reef fish component of that program which was based on Underwater Visual Census methodology of 24 reefs on the Great Barrier Reef between 1999 and 2004. Data was collected using six 50m x 5m transects at 4 sites on 24 reefs. Benthic cover type was also recorded for 10m of each transect. The attached Access Database contains 5 tables being: SITE DETAILS TABLE Survey year Data entry complete REF survey site ID Site # (1-4) Location (reef name) Site Date (date surveyed) Observer 1 (3 initials to identify who estimated fish lengths and recorded benthic cover) TRANSECT DETAILS Survey ID Transect Number (1-6) Time (the transect was surveyed) Visibility (in metres) Minimum Depth surveyed (m) Maximum Depth surveyed (m) Percent of survey completed (%) Comments SUBSTRATE Survey ID Transect Number (1-6) then % cover of each of eth following categories of benthic cover types Dead Coral Live Coral Soft Coral Rubble Sand Sponge Algae Sea Grass Other COORDINATES (over survey sites) from -14 38.792 to -19 44.233 and from 145 21.507 to 149 55.515 SIGHTINGS ID Survey ID Transect Number (1-6) CAAB Code Scientific Name Reef Fish Length (estimated Fork Length of fish; -1 = unknown or not recorded) Outside Transect (if a fish was observed outside a transect -1 was recorded) Morph Code (F = footballer morph for Plectropomus laevis, S = Spawning colour morph displayed)

Fishing power and standardised catch rates: Implications of missing vessel-characteristic data from the Australian eastern king prawn fishery

Standardised time series of fishery catch rates require collations of fishing power data on vessel characteristics. Linear mixed models were used to quantify fishing power trends and study the effect of missing data encountered when relying on commercial logbooks. For this, Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) harvests were analysed with historical (from vessel surveys) and current (from commercial logbooks) vessel data. Between 1989 and 2010, fishing power increased up to 76%. To date, both forward-filling and, alternatively, omitting records with missing vessel information from commercial logbooks produce broadly similar fishing power increases and standardised catch rates, due to the strong influence of years with complete vessel data (16 out of 23 years of data). However, if gaps in vessel information had not originated randomly and skippers from the most efficient vessels were the most diligent at filling in logbooks, considerable errors would be introduced. Also, the buffering effect of complete years would be short lived as years with missing data accumulate. Given ongoing changes in fleet profile with high-catching vessels fishing proportionately more of the fleet’s effort, compliance with logbook completion, or alternatively ongoing vessel gear surveys, is required for generating accurate estimates of fishing power and standardised catch rates.

Improved estimation of size-transition matrices using tag-recapture data

We derive a new method for determining size-transition matrices (STMs) that eliminates probabilities of negative growth and accounts for individual variability. STMs are an important part of size-structured models, which are used in the stock assessment of aquatic species. The elements of STMs represent the probability of growth from one size class to another, given a time step. The growth increment over this time step can be modelled with a variety of methods, but when a population construct is assumed for the underlying growth model, the resulting STM may contain entries that predict negative growth. To solve this problem, we use a maximum likelihood method that incorporates individual variability in the asymptotic length, relative age at tagging, and measurement error to obtain von Bertalanffy growth model parameter estimates. The statistical moments for the future length given an individual’s previous length measurement and time at liberty are then derived. We moment match the true conditional distributions with skewed-normal distributions and use these to accurately estimate the elements of the STMs. The method is investigated with simulated tag–recapture data and tag–recapture data gathered from the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus).