Modelling the potential spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) (red imported fire ant) in Australia

Quantifying the potential spread and density of an invading organism enables decision-makers to determine the most appropriate response to incursions. We present two linked models that estimate the spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (red imported fire ant) in Australia based on limited data gathered after its discovery in Brisbane in 2001. A stochastic cellular automaton determines spread within a location (100 km by 100 km) and this is coupled with a model that simulates human-mediated movement of S. invicta to new locations. In the absence of any control measures, the models predict that S. invicta could cover 763 000–4 066 000 km2 by the year 2035 and be found at 200 separate locations around Australia by 2017–2027, depending on the rate of spread. These estimated rates of expansion (assuming no control efforts were in place) are higher than those experienced in the USA in the 1940s during the early invasion phases in that country. Active control efforts and quarantine controls in the USA (including a concerted eradication attempt in the 1960s) may have slowed spread. Further, milder winters, the presence of the polygynous social form, increased trade and human mobility in Australia in 2000s compared with the USA in 1940s could contribute to faster range expansion.

Weed spread prevention: simple activities for field operations.

This paper discusses how spread of weeds can be minimised by improved knowledge of the weed’s ecology and dispersal, and by better surveillance and treatment methods. Undertaking simple prevention activities reduces the risk of spreading weeds with minimal costs to projects and they noted that field staff and researchers can inadvertently become vectors of weed spread if they do not take adequate precautions. The authors describe several techniques that can be adopted and reference their observations to the eradication program for Siam weed, Chromolaena odorata.

The distribution and spread of citrus canker in Emerald, Australia

Citrus canker is a disease of citrus and closely related species, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri. This disease, previously exotic to Australia, was detected on a single farm [infested premise-1, (IP1). IP is the terminology used in official biosecurity protocols to describe a locality at which an exotic plant pest has been confirmed or is presumed to exist. IP are numbered sequentially as they are detected] in Emerald, Queensland in July 2004. During the following 10 months the disease was subsequently detected on two other farms (IP2 and IP3) within the same area and studies indicated the disease first occurred on IP1 and spread to IP2 and IP3. The oldest, naturally infected plant tissue observed on any of these farms indicated the disease was present on IP1 for several months before detection and established on IP2 and IP3 during the second quarter (i.e. autumn) 2004. Transect studies on some IP1 blocks showed disease incidences ranged between 52 and 100% (trees infected). This contrasted to very low disease incidence, less than 4% of trees within a block, on IP2 and IP3. The mechanisms proposed for disease spread within blocks include weather-assisted dispersal of the bacterium (e.g. wind-driven rain) and movement of contaminated farm equipment, in particular by pivot irrigator towers via mechanical damage in combination with abundant water. Spread between blocks on IP2 was attributed to movement of contaminated farm equipment and/or people. Epidemiology results suggest: (i) successive surveillance rounds increase the likelihood of disease detection; (ii) surveillance sensitivity is affected by tree size; and (iii) individual destruction zones (for the purpose of eradication) could be determined using disease incidence and severity data rather than a predefined set area.

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Diptera: Tephritidae), an invasive fruit fly in Australia that may have reached the extent of its spread due to environmental variables

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Schiner), the ‘mango fruit fly’, is a horticultural pest originating from the Papua New Guinea region. It was first detected in Australia on Cape York Peninsula in north Queensland in 1974 and had spread to Cairns by 1994 and Townsville by 1997. Bactrocera frauenfeldi has not been recorded further south since then despite its invasive potential, an absence of any controls and an abundance of hosts in southern areas. Analysis of cue-lure trapping data from 1997 to 2012 in relation to environmental variables shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Queensland correlates to locations with a minimum temperature for the coldest month >13.2°C, annual temperature range <19.3°C, mean temperature of the driest quarter >20.2°C, precipitation of the wettest month >268 mm, precipitation of the wettest quarter >697 mm, temperature seasonality <30.9°C (i.e. lower temperature variability) and areas with higher human population per square kilometre. Annual temperature range was the most important variable in predicting this species' distribution. Predictive distribution maps based on an uncorrelated subset of these variables reasonably reflected the current distribution of this species in northern Australia and predicted other areas in the world potentially at risk from invasion by this species. This analysis shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Australia is correlated to certain environmental variables that have most likely limited this species' spread southward in Queensland. This is of importance to Australian horticulture in demonstrating that B. frauenfeldi is unlikely to establish in horticultural production areas further south than Townsville.

Investigation of an emerging bacterial disease in wild Queensland groper, marine fish and stingrays with production of diagnostic tools to reduce the spread of disease to other states of Australia : final report

This project describes how Streptococcus agalactiae can be transmitted experimentally in Queensland grouper. The implications of this research furthers the relatedness between Australian S. agalactiae strains from animals and humans. Additionally, this research has developed diagnostic tools for Australian State Veterinary Laboratories and Universities, which will assist in State and National aquatic animal disease detection, surveillance, disease monitoring and reporting

Field evaluation of tolerance to Tobacco streak virus in sunflower germplasm, and observations of seasonal disease spread

Strong statistical evidence was found for differences in tolerance to natural infections of Tobacco streak virus (TSV) in sunflower hybrids. Data from 470 plots involving 23 different sunflower hybrids tested in multiple trials over 5 years in Australia were analysed. Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Logistic Regression model for analysis provided: (i) a rigorous method for investigating the relative effects of hybrid, seasonal rainfall and proximity to inoculum source on the incidence of severe TSV disease; (ii) a natural method for estimating the probability distributions of disease incidence in different hybrids under historical rainfall conditions; and (iii) a method for undertaking all pairwise comparisons of disease incidence between hybrids whilst controlling the familywise error rate without any drastic reduction in statistical power. The tolerance identified in field trials was effective against the main TSV strain associated with disease outbreaks, TSV-parthenium. Glasshouse tests indicate this tolerance to also be effective against the other TSV strain found in central Queensland, TSV-crownbeard. The use of tolerant germplasm is critical to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower in this region. We found strong statistical evidence that rainfall during the early growing months of March and April had a negative effect on the incidence of severe infection with greatly reduced disease incidence in years that had high rainfall during this period.

Resistance to phosphine in Sitophilus oryzae in Australia: A national analysis of trends and frequencies over time and geographical spread

In Australia, along with many other parts of the world, fumigation with phosphine is a vital component in controlling stored grain insect pests. However, resistance is a factor that may limit the continued efficacy of this fumigant. While strong resistance to phosphine has been identified and characterised, very little information is available on the causes of its development and spread. Data obtained from a unique national resistance monitoring and management program were analysed, using Bayesian hurdle modelling, to determine which factors may be responsible. Fumigation in unsealed storages, combined with a high frequency of weak resistance, were found to be the main criteria that led to the development of strong resistance in Sitophilus oryzae. Independent development, rather than gene flow via migration, appears to be primarily responsible for the geographic incidence of strong resistance to phosphine in S. oryzae. This information can now be utilised to direct resources and education into those areas at high risk and to refine phosphine resistance management strategies.

Preventing weed spread: a survey of lifestyle and commercial landholders about Nassella trichotoma in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales, Australia

Nassella trichotoma (Nees) Hack. ex Arechav. (common name, serrated tussock) occupies large areas of south-eastern Australia and has considerable scope for expansion in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales. This highly invasive grass reduces pasture productivity and has the potential to severely affect the region’s economy by decreasing the livestock carrying capacity of grazing land. Other potential consequences of this invasion include increased fuel loads and displacement of native plants, thereby threatening biodiversity. Rural property owners in the Northern Tablelands were sent a mail questionnaire that examined use of measures to prevent new outbreaks of the weed. The questionnaire was sent to professional farmers as well as lifestyle farmers (owners of rural residential blocks and hobby farms) and 271 responses were obtained (a response rate of 18%). Key findings were respondents’ limited capacity to detect N. trichotoma, and low adoption of precautions to control seed spread by livestock, vehicles and machinery. This was particularly the case among lifestyle farmers. There have been considerable recent changes to biosecurity governance arrangements in New South Wales, and now is an ideal time for regulators and information providers to consider how to foster regional communities’ engagement in biosecurity, including the adoption of measures that have the capacity to curtail the spread of N. trichotoma.

First records of the papaya strain of Papaya ringspot virus (PRSV-P) in French Polynesia and the Cook Islands

The papaya strain of Papaya ringspot virus (PRSV-P), the cause of papaya ringspot disease, was confirmed in French Polynesia and the Cook Islands by double antibody sandwich enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (DAS-ELISA). In French Polynesia, the virus has probably been on the islands of Tahiti and Moorea for several years, but appears not to have spread to eight other islands. In contrast, PRSV-P has only recently appeared in the Cook Islands and is now the subject of an eradication campaign.

Genetic diversity, aggressiveness and metalaxyl sensitivity of Pythium aphanidermatum populations infecting cucumber in Oman

Seventy three isolates of Pythium aphanidermatum obtained from cucumber from four different regions of Oman and 16 isolates of muskmelon from the Batinah region in Oman were characterized for aggressiveness, sensitivity to metalaxyl and genetic diversity using AFLP fingerprinting. Twenty isolates of P. aphanidermatum from diverse hosts from different countries were also included in the study. Most isolates from Oman were found to be aggressive on cucumber seedlings and all were highly sensitive to metalaxyl (EC50 < 0•80 µg mL−1). Isolates from cucumber and muskmelon were as aggressive as each other on both hosts (P > 0.05), which implies a lack of host specialization in P. aphanidermatum on these two hosts in Oman. AFLP analysis of all isolates using four primer-pair combinations resolved 152 bands, of which 61 (~40%) were polymorphic. Isolates of P. aphanidermatum from Oman and other countries exhibited high genetic similarity (mean = 94.1%) and produced 59 different AFLP profiles. Analysis of molecular variance indicated that most AFLP variation among populations of P. aphanidermatum in Oman was associated with geographical regions (FST = 0.118; P < 0.0001), not hosts (FST = -0.004; P = 0.4323). These data were supported by the high rate of recovery (24%) of identical phenotypes between cucumber and muskmelon fields in the same region as compared to the low recovery (10%) across regions in Oman, which suggests more frequent movement of Pythium inoculum among muskmelon and cucumber fields in the same region compared to movement across geographically separated regions. However, recovering clones among regions and different countries may imply circulation of Pythium inoculum via common sources in Oman and also intercontinental spread of isolates.

Bitou bush and boneseed eradication and containment in Australia

Bitou bush and boneseed (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata (DC.) T.Norl. and C. monilifera subsp. monilifera (L.) T.Norl., respectively) are highly invasive environmental weeds that pose a serious threat to Australia’s natural ecosystems and biota. Bitou bush threatens coastal plant communities in New South Wales (NSW), eastern Victoria and southeast Queensland (Qld), while boneseed threatens inland and coastal native plant communities across NSW, South Australia (SA), Tasmania, Victoria, and Western Australia (WA). Over 200 plant species and ecological communities in Australia are negatively impacted by these weeds (ARMCANZ et al. 2000, DEC 2006) and over 15% (approx. 120 million ha) of Australia is susceptible to invasion (see maps in Weiss et al 2008). In 2000, the National Bitou Bush and Boneseed Strategic Plan (ARMCANZ et al. 2000) was approved as part of the Commonwealth’s Weeds of National Significance initiative. A key goal of this plan is to prevent the spread of bitou bush and boneseed in Australia. A national program sponsored by the Australian Government and the affected states has resulted in the development of national containment and eradication zones that prevent the spread of bitou bush and boneseed. This paper presents an overview of these bitou bush and boneseed containment and eradication programs.

The introduction and release of Chiasmia inconspicua and C. assimilis (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) for the biological control of Acacia nilotica in Australia

Two geometrid moths Chiasmia inconspicua and Chiasmia assimilis, identified as potential biological control agents for prickly acacia Acacia nilotica subsp. indica, were collected in Kenya and imported into quarantine facilities in Australia where laboratory cultures were established. Aspects of the biologies of both insects were studied and CLIMEX® models indicating the climatically favourable areas of Australia were developed. Host range tests were conducted using an approved test list of 74 plant species and no-choice tests of neonate larvae placed on both cut foliage and potted plants. C. inconspicua developed through to adult on prickly acacia and, in small numbers, Acacia pulchella. C. assimilis developed through to adult on prickly acacia and also in very small numbers on A. pulchella, A. deanei, A. decurrens, and A. mearnsii. In all experiments, the response on prickly acacia could be clearly differentiated from the responses on the non-target species. Both insects were approved for release in Australia. Over a three-year period releases were made at multiple sites in north Queensland, almost all in inland areas. There was no evidence of either insect's establishment and both colonies were terminated. A new colony of C. assimilis was subsequently established from insects collected in South Africa and releases of C. assimilis from this new colony were made into coastal and inland infestations of prickly acacia. Establishment was rapid at one coastal site and the insect quickly spread to other infestations. Establishment at one inland area was also confirmed in early 2006. The establishment in coastal areas supported a CLIMEX model that indicated that the climate of coastal areas was more suitable than inland areas.

How effective are broad-scale nutrient mass balances for determining the sustainability of lot-feed manure application?

Nutrient mass balances have been used to assess a variety of land resource scenarios, at various scales. They are widely used as a simple basis for policy, planning, and regulatory decisions but it is not clear how accurately they reflect reality. This study provides a critique of broad-scale nutrient mass balances, with particular application to the fertiliser use of beef lot-feeding manure in Queensland. Mass balances completed at the district and farm scale were found to misrepresent actual manure management behaviour and potentially the risk of nutrient contamination of water resources. The difficulties of handling stockpile manure and concerns about soil compaction mean that manure is spread thickly over a few paddocks at a time and not evenly across a whole farm. Consequently, higher nutrient loads were applied to a single paddock less frequently than annually. This resulted in years with excess nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium remaining in the soil profile. This conclusion was supported by evidence of significant nutrient movement in several of the soil profiles studied. Spreading manure is profitable, but maximum returns can be associated with increased risk of nutrient leaching relative to conventional inorganic fertiliser practices. Bio-economic simulations found this increased risk where manure was applied to supply crop nitrogen requirements (the practice of the case study farms, 200-5000 head lot-feeders). Thus, the use of broad-scale mass balances can be misleading because paddock management is spatially heterogeneous and this leads to increased local potential for nutrient loss. In response to the effect of spatial heterogeneity policy makers who intend to use mass balance techniques to estimate potential for nutrient contamination should apply these techniques conservatively.

Recruitment dynamics of invasive species in rainforest habitats following Cyclone Larry

In tropical forests, natural disturbance creates opportunities for species to claim previously utilized space and resources and is considered an important mechanism in the maintenance of species diversity. However, ecologists have long recognized that disturbance also promotes exotic plant invasions. Cyclones cause extensive defoliation, loss of major branches and multiple tree falls, resulting in a significantly more open canopy and increased light and heat levels in the understorey. The widespread and massive disturbance caused by cyclones provides ideal conditions for rapid recruitment and spread of invasive species. The ecological roles of invasive species in rainforest habitats following such a severe disturbance are poorly understood. Severe category 4 Cyclone Larry crossed the North Queensland coast in March 2006 causing massive disturbance to rainforest habitats from Tully to Cairns and west to the Atherton Tablelands. We established 10 plots in an area extensively damaged by this cyclone near El Arish in North Queensland. On each plot nine 2 × 2 m quadrats were established with three quadrats per plot in each of the following treatments: (i) complete debris removal down to the soil layer, (ii) removal of coarse woody debris only, and (iii) uncleared. We monitored recruitment, growth and mortality of all native and invasive species in the 90 quadrats every 3 months since the cyclone. Here we present the recruitment dynamics of invasive species across the study area in relation to the level of disturbance, the type of quadrat treatment, and the diversity and abundance of the native recruiting flora over the first 12 months post-cyclone. Our results suggest that invasive species will mostly comprise a transient component of the flora in the early stages of the successional response. However, some species may have longer-term effects on the successional trajectory of the rainforest and future forest composition and structure.