2 resultados para Breakdown Probability

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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This paper describes the development of a model, based on Bayesian networks, to estimate the likelihood that sheep flocks are infested with lice at shearing and to assist farm managers or advisers to assess whether or not to apply a lousicide treatment. The risk of lice comes from three main sources: (i) lice may have been present at the previous shearing and not eradicated; (ii) lice may have been introduced with purchased sheep; and (iii) lice may have entered with strays. A Bayesian network is used to assess the probability of each of these events independently and combine them for an overall assessment. Rubbing is a common indicator of lice but there are other causes too. If rubbing has been observed, an additional Bayesian network is used to assess the probability that lice are the cause. The presence or absence of rubbing and its possible cause are combined with these networks to improve the overall risk assessment.

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Radish sprouts and broccoli sprouts have been implicated in having a potential chemoprotective effect against certain types of cancer. Each contains a glucosinolate that can be broken down to an isothiocyanate capable of inducing chemoprotective factors known as phase 2 enzymes. In the case of broccoli, the glucosinolate, glucoraphanin, is converted to an isothiocyanate, sulforaphane, while in radish a similar glucosinolate, glucoraphenin, is broken down to form the isothiocyanate, sulforaphene. When sprouts are consumed fresh (uncooked), however, the principal degradation product of broccoli is not the isothiocyanate sulforaphane, but a nitrile, a compound with little anti-cancer potential. By contrast, radish sprouts produce largely the anti-cancer isothiocyanate, sulforaphene. The reason for this difference is likely to be due to the presence in broccoli (and absence in radish) of the enzyme cofactor, epithiospecifier protein (ESP). In vitro induction of the phase 2 enzyme, quinone reductase (QR), was significantly greater for radish sprouts than broccoli sprouts when extracts were self-hydrolysed. By contrast, boiled radish sprout extracts (deactivating ESP) to which myrosinase was subsequently added, induced similar QR activity to broccoli sprouts. The implication is that radish sprouts have potentially greater chemoprotective action against carcinogens than broccoli sprouts when hydrolysed under conditions similar to that during human consumption.