3 resultados para Bootstrap reality check
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
Prior to the 1980s, arthropod pest control in Queensland strawberries was based entirely on calendar sprays of insecticides (mainly endosulfan, triclorfon, dimethoate and carbaryl) and a miticide (dicofol). These chemicals were applied frequently and spider mite outbreaks occurred every season. The concept of integrated pest management (IPM) had not been introduced to growers, and the suggestion that an alternative to the standard chemical pest control recipe might be available, was ignored. Circumstances changed when the predatory mite, Phytoseiulus persimilis Athios-Henriot, became available commercially in Australia, providing the opportunity to manage spider mites, the major pests of strawberries, with an effective biological agent. Trials conducted on commercial farms in the early 1980s indicated that a revolution in strawberry pest management was at hand, but the industry generally remained sceptical and afraid to adopt the new strategy. Lessons are learnt from disasters and the consequent monetary loss that ensues, and in 1993, such an event relating to ineffective spider mite control, spawned the revolution we had to have. Farm-oriented research and evolving grower perspectives have resulted in the acceptance of biological control of spider mites using Phytoseiulus persimilis and the 'pest in first' technique, and it now forms the basis of an IPM system that is used on more than 80% of the Queensland strawberry crop.
Resumo:
An annotated check list of Ramularia species in Australia, based on re-examinations of collections deposited at BRIP, DAR and VPRI, is presented. Twenty-eight species are reported in Australia, most of them on introduced host plants. The new species Cladosporium myrtacearum, Ramularia craspediicola and R. muehlenbeckiae are described. Collections of Cladosporium uredinicola, Neoramularia karelii, Passalora perfoliati and Pseudocercospora pongamiae-pinnatae, previously deposited in Australian herbaria under 'Ramularia sp.', are newly recognised for Australia.
Resumo:
Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.