From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Getting value out of your sensory testing - the difference from control test

Non-parametric difference tests such as triangle and duo-trio tests traditionally are used to establish differences or similarities between products. However they only supply the researcher with partial answers and often further testing is required to establish the nature, size and direction of differences. This paper looks at the advantages of the difference from control (DFC) test (also known as degree of difference test) and discusses appropriate applications of the test. The scope and principle of the test, panel composition and analysis of results are presented with the aid of suitable examples. Two of the major uses of the DFC test are in quality control and shelf-life testing. The role DFC takes in these areas and the use of other tests to complement the testing is discussed. Controls or standards are important in both these areas and the use of standard products, mental and written standards and blind controls are highlighted. The DFC test has applications in products where the duo-trio and triangle tests cannot be used because of the normal heterogeneity of the product. While the DFC test is a simple difference test it can be structured to give the researcher more valuable data and scope to make informed decisions about their product.

A Comparison of Methods for Describing Irregular Animal Growth and Testing for Treatment Effects

In many designed experiments with animals liveweight is recorded several times during the trial. Such data are commonly referred to as repeated measures data. An aim of such experiments is generally to compare the growth patterns for the applied treatments. This paper discusses some of the methods of analysing repeated measures data and illustrates the use of cubic smoothing splines to describe irregular cattle growth data. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

Identification of the Sex Pheromone of Holotrichia Reynaudi

The male attractant pheromone of the scarab beetle Holotrichia reynaudi, an agricultural pest native to southern India, was extracted from abdominal glands of females with hexane and analyzed by gas chromatography– mass spectrometry. Field testing of the candidate chemicals, indole, phenol, and anisole, both alone and as binary mixtures, led us to conclude that anisole was the major component of the sex pheromone. Neither male nor female beetles were attracted to indole or phenol on their own. Similarly, when indole and anisole were combined, the attractiveness of the solution did not increase over that obtained with anisole alone. However, combination of phenol and anisole did alter the attractiveness of anisole, with fewer male beetles attracted to the binary mixture than to anisole on its own. The behavior of female beetles was not altered by any of the chemicals tested. Anisole is also the sex pheromone of H. consanguinea, making this the first known example of two melolonthine scarabs sharing the same pheromone.

Impact of resistance on the efficacy of binary combinations of spinosad, chlorpyrifos-methyl and s-methoprene against five stored-grain beetles

Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the efficacy of spinosad (a biopesticide), chlorpyrifos-methyl (an organophosphorus compound (OP)) and s-methoprene (a juvenile hormone analogue) applied alone and in binary combinations against five stored-grain beetles in wheat. There were three strains of Rhyzopertha dominica, and one strain each of Sitophilus oryzae, Tribolium castaneum, Oryzaephilus surinamensis and Cryptolestes ferrugineus. These strains were chosen to represent a range of possible resistant genotypes, exhibiting resistance to organophosphates, pyrethroids or methoprene. Treatments were applied at rates that are registered or likely to be registered in Australia. Adults were exposed to freshly treated wheat for 2 weeks, and the effects of treatments on mortality and reproduction were determined. No single protectant or protectant combination controlled all insect strains, based on the criterion of >99% reduction in the number of live F1 adults relative to the control. The most effective combinations were spinosad at 1 mg kg-1+chlorpyrifos-methyl at 10 mg kg-1 which controlled all strains except for OP-resistant O. surinamensis, and chlorpyrifos-methyl at 10 mg kg-1+s-methoprene at 0.6 mg kg-1 which controlled all strains except for methoprene-resistant R. dominica. The results of this study demonstrate the difficulty in Australia, and potentially other countries which use protectants, of finding protectant treatments to control a broad range of pest species in the face of resistance development.

Antimicrobial susceptibility testing of Brachyspira intermedia and Brachyspira pilosicoli isolates from Australian chickens

Susceptibilities of predominantly Australian isolates of the pathogenic intestinal spirochaetes Brachyspira intermedia (n=25) and Brachyspira pilosicoli (n=17) from chickens were tested in agar dilution against four concentrations each of the antimicrobials tiamulin, lincomycin, tylosin, metronidazole, tetracycline and ampicillin. Based on available minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) breakpoint values for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae or other Gram-negative enteric veterinary pathogens, isolates of both species generally were susceptible to tiamulin, lincomycin, metronidazole and tetracycline. Although not classed as resistant, four isolates of B. intermedia had an elevated MIC range for tiamulin (1 to 4 mg/l), 11 isolates of B. intermedia and five of B. pilosicoli had an elevated MIC range for lincomycin (10 to 50 mg/l), one isolate of B. pilosicoli had an elevated MIC range for tetracycline (10 to 20 mg/l), and one isolate of B. intermedia and five of B. pilosicoli had an elevated MIC range for ampicillin (10 to 50 mg/l). A clear lack of susceptibility to tylosin (MIC >4 mg/l) was seen in 11 isolates each of B. intermedia and B. pilosicoli, and to ampicillin (MIC >32 mg/l) in two isolates of B. pilosicoli. These data suggest that some resistance to common antimicrobials exists among intestinal spirochetes obtained from laying hens and supports the need of MIC data for clinical isolates before any treatment is considered.

Measuring the traction profile on sportsfields: Equipment development and testing

Traction is recognised as an important component of the overall playability and safety of a sportsfield. It relates to the "grip", or footing, provided through an athlete's shoe when in contact with the surface, and is normally measured by the torque generated when a weighted studded disc apparatus is dropped onto the turf and twisted manually. This paper describes the development of an automated traction tester, which mechanises the dropping and twisting of the weighted studded disc. By standardising these operational stages, more repeatable and reliable results can be expected than from the original hand-operated design where positioning of the disc and speed of rotation are controlled manually and so can vary from one measurement to the next. As well as measuring the maximum torque reached during rotation of the studded disc, the automated traction tester generates a profile of torque showing changes over time and calculates the angle through which the studded disc moved before reaching maximum torque. These aspects are now covered by a utility patent (PAT/AU/2004270767). Use of the automated traction tester is illustrated by comparative data for a range of warm-season turfgrasses, by comparisons of traction under different surface conditions generated by wear on Cynodon dactylon cultivars, and by the effects of environment, management and playing patterns on traction across a multi-use sports stadium.

Optical peanut yield monitor: Development and testing

An optical peanut yield monitor was developed, fabricated, and field-tested. The overall system includes an optical mass-flow sensor, a GPS receiver, and a data acquisition system. The concept for the mass-flow sensor is based on that of the cotton yield-monitor sensor developed previously by Thomasson and Sui (2000). A modified version of the sensor was designed to be specific to peanut mass-flow measurement. Field testing of the peanut yield monitor was conducted in Australia during the May 2003 harvest. After subsequent minor modifications, the system was more extensively tested in Mississippi in October of 2003 and November of 2004. Test results showed that the output of the peanut mass-flow sensor was very strongly correlated with the harvested load weight, and the system's performance was stable and reliable during the tests.

Characterisation of chicken Campylobacter jejuni isolates using resolution optimised single nucleotide polymorphisms and binary gene markers

The principal objective of this study was to determine if Campylobacter jejuni genotyping methods based upon resolution optimised sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and binary genetic markers were capable of identifying epidemiologically linked clusters of chicken-derived isolates. Eighty-eight C. jejuni isolates of known flaA RFLP type were included in the study. They encompassed three groups of ten isolates that were obtained at the same time and place and possessed the same flaA type. These were regarded as being epidemiologically linked. Twenty-six unlinked C. jejuni flaA type I isolates were included to test the ability of SNP and binary typing to resolve isolates that were not resolved by flaA RFLP. The remaining isolates were of different flaA types. All isolates were typed by real-time PCR interrogation of the resolution optimised sets of SNPs and binary markers. According to each typing method, the three epidemiologically linked clusters were three different clones that were well resolved from the other isolates. The 26 unlinked C. jejuni flaA type I isolates were resolved into 14 SNP-binary types, indicating that flaA typing can be unreliable for revealing epidemiological linkage. Comparison of the data with data from a fully typed set of isolates associated with human infection revealed that abundant lineages in the chicken isolates that were also found in the human isolates belonged to clonal complex (CC) -21 and CC-353, with the usually rare C-353 member ST-524 being especially abundant in the chicken collection. The chicken isolates selected to be diverse according to flaA were also diverse according to SNP and binary typing. It was observed that CC-48 was absent in the chicken isolates, despite being very common in Australian human infection isolates, indicating that this may be a major cause of human disease that is not chicken associated.

Modelling predicts positive and negative interactions between three Australian tropical tree species in monoculture and binary mixture

Computer modelling promises to be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The `spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/-50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations.

Testing insecticides against Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) using a tomato plant bioassay

A bioassay technique was developed to test the efficacy of insecticides against potato moth (Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller)) on tomatoes. The technique tested efficacy against both larvae in mines and neonate larvae that had not yet penetrated the leaf, and explained the failure of some insecticides to control P. operculella infestations in commercial tomato crops. Neonate larvae placed on leaves of potted plants several days before treatment provided larvae for testing of insecticides against larvae in mines; other neonates were placed on leaves after treatment to test efficacy against larvae yet to penetrate the leaf. The plants were sprayed with the candidate insecticides, held for 5-7 days, and larval mortality assessed. Chlorfenapyr (100, 200 g a.i. ha-1) and abamectin (8.1 g a.i. ha-1) were effective against neonate larvae and larvae in mines. Sulprofos (720 g a.i. ha -1), methomyl (450 g a.i. ha-1) and spinosad (96 g a.i. ha-1) were effective against neonate larvae but not against larvae in mines. Methamidophos (1102 g a.i. ha-1), endosulfan (700 g a.i. ha-1) and Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki (1000 g ha-1) had some effect against exposed larvae but little against larvae in mines. Thiodicarb (525 g a.i. ha-1), azinphos-ethyl (440 g a.i. ha -1), imidacloprid (59.5 g a.i. ha-1), hexaflumuron (50 g a.i. ha-1), methoxyfenozide (300 g a.i. ha-1) and tebufenozide (200 g a.i. ha-1) were ineffective. A field trial using chlorfenapyr (25, 50, 100, 150 and 200 g a.i. ha-1) and methamidophos (1102 g a.i. ha-1) validated the bioassay technique, with chlorfenapyr effective in reducing the numbers of larvae in mines in leaves.

Testing the simulation capability of APSIM-ORYZA under different levels of nitrogen fertiliser and transplanting time regimes in Korea

APSIM-ORYZA is a new functionality developed in the APSIM framework to simulate rice production while addressing management issues such as fertilisation and transplanting, which are particularly important in Korean agriculture. To validate the model for Korean rice varieties and field conditions, the measured yields and flowering times from three field experiments conducted by the Gyeonggi Agricultural Research and Extension Services (GARES) in Korea were compared against the simulated outputs for different management practices and rice varieties. Simulated yields of early-, mid- and mid-to-late-maturing varieties of rice grown in a continuous rice cropping system from 1997 to 2004 showed close agreement with the measured data. Similar results were also found for yields simulated under seven levels of nitrogen application. When different transplanting times were modelled, simulated flowering times ranged from within 3 days of the measured values for the early-maturing varieties, to up to 9 days after the measured dates for the mid- and especially mid-to-late-maturing varieties. This was associated with highly variable simulated yields which correlated poorly with the measured data. This suggests the need to accurately calibrate the photoperiod sensitivity parameters of the model for the photoperiod-sensitive rice varieties in Korea.

Test of the enemy release hypothesis: the native magpie moth prefers a native fireweed (Senecio pinnatifolius) to its introduced congener (S. madagascariensis).

The enemy release hypothesis predicts that native herbivores will either prefer or cause more damage to native than introduced plant species. We tested this using preference and performance experiments in the laboratory and surveys of leaf damage caused by the magpie moth Nyctemera amica on a co-occuring native and introduced species of fireweed (Senecio) in eastern Australia. In the laboratory, ovipositing females and feeding larvae preferred the native S. pinnatifolius over the introduced S. madagascariensis. Larvae performed equally well on foliage of S. pinnatifolius and S. madagascariensis: pupal weights did not differ between insects reared on the two species, but growth rates were significantly faster on S. pinnatifolius. In the field, foliage damage was significantly greater on native S. pinnatifolius than introduced S. madagascariensis. These results support the enemy release hypothesis, and suggest that the failure of native consumers to switch to introduced species contributes to their invasive success. Both plant species experienced reduced, rather than increased, levels of herbivory when growing in mixed populations, as opposed to pure stands in the field; thus, there was no evidence that apparent competition occurred.

Development and testing of an evaluation procedure for commercial manure additive products.

Manure additive products can be used to reduce odour emissions (OE) from livestock farms. The standardised evaluation of these manure additive products under specific farm conditions is important. In this study, the efficacy of a manure additive (WonderTreat(TM), CKLS, Inc., Hong-Kong) was assessed under Australian conditions utilising a combination of laboratory and field-scale evaluation techniques. As a first step, the efficacy of the manure additive was assessed in a laboratory-scale trial using a series of uniformly managed digesters and standard odour, liquor ammonia and hydrogen sulphide concentration measurement procedures. This showed that the addition of WonderTreat(TM) at the 'low dose rate' (LDR) (102.6 g m-2) used during the trial significantly, but only marginally (30%; P = 0.02) reduced the OE rate (mean 13.9 OU m-2 s-1) of anaerobic pig liquor relative to an untreated control (UC) (19.9 OU m-2 s-1). However, the 'high dose rate' (HDR) (205.3 g m-2) also assessed during the trial preformed similarly (19.7 OU m-2 s-1) to the UC. No statistically significant difference in the concentrations of a range of measured water quality variables at the 5% level was observed between the treatments or controls digesters. As a second step, a field-scale assessment of the manure additive was undertaken at a commercial piggery. Two piggery manure lagoons (each with approximately 2500 m2 surface area) were included in the study; one was treated with WonderTreat(TM) while the other was used as control. The efficacy of the treatment was assessed using olfactometric evaluation of odour samples collected from the surface of the pond using a dynamic wind tunnel and ancillary equipment. No statistically significant reduction in OE rate could be demonstrated (P = 0.35), partially due to the limited number of samples taken during the assessment. However, there was a numerical reduction in the average OE rate of the treatment pond (29 OU m-2 s-1 at 1 m s-1) compared to the control lagoon (38 OU m-2 s-1 at 1 m s-1).

Hardness Methods for Testing Maize Kernels

Maize is a highly important crop to many countries around the world, through the sale of the maize crop to domestic processors and subsequent production of maize products and also provides a staple food to subsistance farms in undeveloped countries. In many countries, there have been long-term research efforts to develop a suitable hardness method that could assist the maize industry in improving efficiency in processing as well as possibly providing a quality specification for maize growers, which could attract a premium. This paper focuses specifically on hardness and reviews a number of methodologies as well as important biochemical aspects of maize that contribute to maize hardness used internationally. Numerous foods are produced from maize, and hardness has been described as having an impact on food quality. However, the basis of hardness and measurement of hardness are very general and would apply to any use of maize from any country. From the published literature, it would appear that one of the simpler methods used to measure hardness is a grinding step followed by a sieving step, using multiple sieve sizes. This would allow the range in hardness within a sample as well as average particle size and/or coarse/fine ratio to be calculated. Any of these parameters could easily be used as reference values for the development of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibrations. The development of precise NIR calibrations will provide an excellent tool for breeders, handlers, and processors to deliver specific cultivars in the case of growers and bulk loads in the case of handlers, thereby ensuring the most efficient use of maize by domestic and international processors. This paper also considers previous research describing the biochemical aspects of maize that have been related to maize hardness. Both starch and protein affect hardness, with most research focusing on the storage proteins (zeins). Both the content and composition of the zein fractions affect hardness. Genotypes and growing environment influence the final protein and starch content and. to a lesser extent, composition. However, hardness is a highly heritable trait and, hence, when a desirable level of hardness is finally agreed upon, the breeders will quickly be able to produce material with the hardness levels required by the industry.