Supply capability of sheep on the Mitchell grass downs of North and Central West Queensland

While, in the past, sheep have been predominantly reared and grazed in western Queensland for wool, interest in the sheep meat industry increased when wool prices became depressed. For north west and central west Queensland producers, opportunities may exist to participate in live sheep and meat export to Asia. The capability of the Mitchell grass downs to provide sufficient numbers of export quality sheep under the variable climatic conditions while sustaining the land resources has been simulated. Sheep numbers were found to be insufficient to maintain a consistent supply for live export. However, raising marking rates and lowering mortalities effectively increased reproductive performance to a level at which a surplus for export could be sustainable. Other practices might be required for the liveweight specifications to be met. 24th Biennial Conference. Adelaide, South Australia.

Simulation of the supply capability of sheep on the Mitchell grass downs of north west Queensland

Sheep in western Queensland have been predominantly reared for wool. When wool prices became depressed interest in the sheep meat industry, increased. For north west Queensland producers, opportunities may exist to participate in live sheep and meat export to Asia. A simulation model was developed to determine whether this sheep producing area has the capability to provide sufficient numbers of sheep under variable climatic conditions while sustaining the land resources. Maximum capacity for sustainability of resources (as described by stock numbers) was derived from an in-depth study of the agricultural and pastoral potential of Queensland. Decades of sheep production and climatic data spanning differing seasonal conditions were collated for analysis. A ruminant biology model adapted from Grazplan was used to simulate pregnancy rate. Empirical equations predict mortalities, marking rates, and weight characteristics of sheep of various ages from simple climatic measures, stocking rate and reproductive status. The initial age structure of flocks was determined by running the model for several years with historical climatic conditions. Drought management strategies such as selling a proportion of wethers progressively down to two-tooth and oldest ewes were incorporated. Management decisions such as time of joining, age at which ewes were cast-for-age, wether turn-off age and turning-off rate of lambs vary with geographical area and can be specified at run time. The model is run for sequences of climatic conditions generated stochastically from distributions based on historical climatic data correlated in some instances. The model highlights the difficulties of sustaining a consistent supply of sheep under variable climatic conditions.

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 4. The effects of burning on H.contortus and Aristida spp. populations

This paper reports an experiment undertaken to examine the impact of burning in spring together with reduced grazing pressure on the dynamics of H. contortus and Aristida spp. In H. contortus pasture in south-eastern Queensland. The overall results indicate that spring burning in combination with reduced grazing pressure had no marked effect on the density of either grass species. This was attributed to 2 factors. Firstly, extreme drought conditions restricted any increase in H. contortus seedling establishment despite the presence of an adequate soil seed bank prior to summer; and secondly, some differences occurred in the response to fire of the diverse taxonomic groupings in the species of Aristida spp. present at the study site. This study concluded that it is necessary to identify appropriate taxonomic units within the Aristida genus and that, where appropriate, burning in spring to manage pasture composition should be conducted under favorable rainfall conditions using seasonal forecasting indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index

Influence of dingoes on sheep distribution in Australia

Objective To describe the influence of the dingo (Canis lupus dingo) on the past, present and future distributions of sheep in Australia. Design The role of the dingo in the rise and fall of sheep numbers is reviewed, revised data are provided on the present distribution and density of sheep and dingoes, and historical patterns of sheep distribution are used to explore the future of rangeland sheep grazing. Results Dingoes are a critical causal factor in the distribution of sheep at the national, regional and local levels. Dingo predation contributed substantially to the historical contraction of the sheep industry to its present-day distribution, which is almost exclusively confined to areas within fenced dingo exclusion zones. Dingo populations and/or their influence are now present and increasing in all sheep production zones of Australia, inclusive of areas that were once dingo free'. Conclusions Rangeland production of wool and sheep meat is predicted to disappear within 30-40 years if the present rate of contraction of the industry continues unabated. Understanding the influence of dingoes on sheep production may help refine disease response strategies and help predict the future distribution of sheep and their diseases.

Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

Effects of trawling on sessile megabenthos in the Great Barrier Reef and evaluation of the efficacy of management strategies

A series of related research studies over 15 years assessed the effects of prawn trawling on sessile megabenthos in the Great Barrier Reef, to support management for sustainable use in the World Heritage Area. These large-scale studies estimated impacts on benthos (particularly removal rates per trawl pass), monitored subsequent recovery rates, measured natural dynamics of tagged megabenthos, mapped the regional distribution of seabed habitats and benthic species, and integrated these results in a dynamic modelling framework together with spatio-temporal fishery effort data and simulated management. Typical impact rates were between 5 and 25% per trawl, recovery times ranged from several years to several decades, and most sessile megabenthos were naturally distributed in areas where little or no trawling occurred and so had low exposure to trawling. The model simulated trawl impact and recovery on the mapped species distributions, and estimated the regional scale cumulative changes due to trawling as a time series of status for megabenthos species. The regional status of these taxa at time of greatest depletion ranged from ∼77% relative to pre-trawl abundance for the worst case species, having slow recovery with moderate exposure to trawling, to ∼97% for the least affected taxon. The model also evaluated the expected outcomes for sessile megabenthos in response to major management interventions implemented between 1999 and 2006, including closures, effort reductions, and protected areas. As a result of these interventions, all taxa were predicted to recover (by 2-14% at 2025); the most affected species having relatively greater recovery. Effort reductions made the biggest positive contributions to benthos status for all taxa, with closures making smaller contributions for some taxa. The results demonstrated that management actions have arrested and reversed previous unsustainable trends for all taxa assessed, and have led to a prawn trawl fishery with improved environmental sustainability. © 2015 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.