Estimating and influencing the duration of weed eradication programmes

1. Weed eradication efforts often must be sustained for long periods owing to the existence of persistent seed banks, among other factors. Decision makers need to consider both the amount of investment required and the period over which investment must be maintained when determining whether to commit to (or continue) an eradication programme. However, a basis for estimating eradication programme duration based on simple data has been lacking. Here, we present a stochastic dynamic model that can provide such estimates. 2. The model is based upon the rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring state (i.e. no plants detected for at least 12 months), rates of reversion of infestations from monitoring to the active state and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. Isoquants that illustrate the combinations of progression and reversion parameters corresponding to eradication within different time frames are generated. 3. The model is applied to ongoing eradication programmes targeting branched broomrape Orobanche ramosa and chromolaena Chromolaena odorata. The minimum periods in which eradication could potentially be achieved were 22 and 23 years, respectively. On the basis of programme performance until 2008, however, eradication is predicted to take considerably longer for both species (on average, 62 and 248 years, respectively). Performance of the branched broomrape programme could be best improved through reducing rates of reversion to the active state; for chromolaena, boosting rates of progression to the monitoring state is more important. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our model for estimating weed eradication programme duration, which captures critical transitions between a limited number of states, is readily applicable to any weed.Aparticular strength of the method lies in its minimal data requirements. These comprise estimates of maximum seed persistence and infested area, plus consistent annual records of the detection (or otherwise) of the weed in each infestation. This work provides a framework for identifying where improvements in management are needed and a basis for testing the effectiveness of alternative tactics. If adopted, our approach should help improve decision making with regard to eradication as a management strategy.

Estimating the duration and cost of weed eradication programmes

Two prerequisites for realistically embarking upon an eradication programme are that cost-benefit analysis favours this strategy over other management options and that sufficient resources are available to carry the programme through to completion. These are not independent criteria, but it is our view that too little attention has been paid to estimating the investment required to complete weed eradication programmes. We deal with this problem by using a two-pronged approach: 1) developing a stochastic dynamic model that provides an estimation of programme duration; and 2) estimating the inputs required to delimit a weed incursion and to prevent weed reproduction over a sufficiently long period to allow extirpation of all infestations. The model is built upon relationships that capture the time-related detection of new infested areas, rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring stage, rates of reversion of infestations from the monitoring to active stage, and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. This approach is applied to the branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa) eradication programme currently underway in South Australia. This programme commenced in 1999 and currently 7450 ha are known to be infested with the weed. To date none of the infestations have been eradicated. Given recent (2008) levels of investment and current eradication methods, model predictions are that it would take, on average, an additional 73 years to eradicate this weed at an average additional cost (NPV) of $AU67.9m. When the model was run for circumstances in 2003 and 2006, the average programme duration and total cost (NPV) were predicted to be 159 and 94 years, and $AU91.3m and $AU72.3m, respectively. The reduction in estimated programme length and cost may represent progress towards the eradication objective, although eradication of this species still remains a long term prospect.

Evaluating the performance of weed containment programmes

Aim: To develop approaches to the evaluation of programmes whose strategic objectives are to halt or slow weed spread. Location: Australia. Methods: Key aspects in the evaluation of weed containment programmes are considered. These include the relevance of models that predict the effects of management intervention on spread, the detection of spread, evidence for containment failure and metrics for absolute or partial containment. Case studies documenting either near-absolute (Orobanche ramosa L., branched broomrape) or partial (Parthenium hysterophorus (L.) King and Robinson, parthenium) containment are presented. Results: While useful for informing containment strategies, predictive models cannot be employed in containment programme evaluation owing to the highly stochastic nature of realized weed spread. The quality of observations is critical to the timely detection of weed spread. Effectiveness of surveillance and monitoring activities will be improved by utilizing information on habitat suitability and identification of sites from which spread could most compromise containment. Proof of containment failure may be difficult to obtain. The default option of assuming that a new detection represents containment failure could lead to an underestimate of containment success, the magnitude of which will depend on how often this assumption is made. Main conclusions: Evaluation of weed containment programmes will be relatively straightforward if containment is either absolute or near-absolute and may be based on total containment area and direct measures of containment failure, for example, levels of dispersal, establishment and reproduction beyond (but proximal to) the containment line. Where containment is only partial, other measures of containment effectiveness will be required. These may include changes in the rates of detection of new infestations following the institution of interventions designed to reduce dispersal, the degree of compliance with such interventions, and the effectiveness of tactics intended to reduce fecundity or other demographic drivers of spread. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Induced Resistance: Potential for Control of Postharvest Diseases of Horticultural Crops

Fortunately, plants have developed highly effective mechanisms with which to defend themselves when attacked by potentially disease-causing microorganisms. If not, then they would succumb to the many pathogenic fungi, bacteria, viruses, nematodes and insect pests, and disease would prevail. These natural defence systems of plants can be deliberately activated to provide some protection against the major pathogens responsible for causing severe yield losses in agricultural and horticultural crops. This is the basis of what is known as ‘induced’ or ‘acquired’ disease resistance in plants. Although the phenomenon of induced resistance has been known amongst plant pathologists for over 100 years, its inclusion into pest and disease management programmes has been a relatively recent development, ie. within the last 5 years. This review will discuss very briefly some of the characteristics of the induced resistance phenomenon, outline some of the advantages and limitations to its implementation and provide some examples within a postharvest pathology context. Finally some approaches being investigated by the fruit pathology team at DPI Indooroopilly and collaborators will be outlined.

Genetic analysis of resistance to root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei) in wheat

The inheritance of resistance to root-lesion nematode was investigated in five synthetic hexaploid wheat lines and two bread wheat lines using a half-diallel design of F1 and F2 crosses. The combining ability of resistance genes in the synthetic hexaploid wheat lines was compared with the performance of the bread wheat line 'GS50a', the source of resistance to Pratylenchus thornei used in Australian wheat breeding programmes. Replicated glasshouse trials identified P. thornei resistance as polygenic and additive in gene action. General combining ability (GCA) of the parents was more important than specific combining ability (SCA) effects in the inheritance of P. thornei resistance in both F1 and F2 populations. The synthetic hexaploid wheat line 'CPI133872' was identified as the best general combiner, however, all five synthetic hexaploid wheat lines possessed better GCA than 'GS50a'. The synthetic hexaploid wheat lines contain novel sources of P. thornei resistance that will provide alternative and more effective sources of resistance to be utilized in wheat breeding programmes

Using simulation techniques to investigate methods to determine resistance of helminths to anthelmintic treatment

The widespread and increasing resistance of internal parasites to anthelmintic control is a serious problem for the Australian sheep and wool industry. As part of control programmes, laboratories use the Faecal Egg Count Reduction Test (FECRT) to determine resistance to anthelmintics. It is important to have confidence in the measure of resistance, not only for the producer planning a drenching programme but also for companies investigating the efficacy of their products. The determination of resistance and corresponding confidence limits as given in anthelmintic efficacy guidelines of the Standing Committee on Agriculture (SCA) is based on a number of assumptions. This study evaluated the appropriateness of these assumptions for typical data and compared the effectiveness of the standard FECRT procedure with the effectiveness of alternative procedures. Several sets of historical experimental data from sheep and goats were analysed to determine that a negative binomial distribution was a more appropriate distribution to describe pre-treatment helminth egg counts in faeces than a normal distribution. Simulated egg counts for control animals were generated stochastically from negative binomial distributions and those for treated animals from negative binomial and binomial distributions. Three methods for determining resistance when percent reduction is based on arithmetic means were applied. The first was that advocated in the SCA guidelines, the second similar to the first but basing the variance estimates on negative binomial distributions, and the third using Wadley’s method with the distribution of the response variate assumed negative binomial and a logit link transformation. These were also compared with a fourth method recommended by the International Co-operation on Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Registration of Veterinary Medicinal Products (VICH) programme, in which percent reduction is based on the geometric means. A wide selection of parameters was investigated and for each set 1000 simulations run. Percent reduction and confidence limits were then calculated for the methods, together with the number of times in each set of 1000 simulations the theoretical percent reduction fell within the estimated confidence limits and the number of times resistance would have been said to occur. These simulations provide the basis for setting conditions under which the methods could be recommended. The authors show that given the distribution of helminth egg counts found in Queensland flocks, the method based on arithmetic not geometric means should be used and suggest that resistance be redefined as occurring when the upper level of percent reduction is less than 95%. At least ten animals per group are required in most circumstances, though even 20 may be insufficient where effectiveness of the product is close to the cut off point for defining resistance.

Poisoning for production: how effective is fox baiting in south-eastern Australia?

1. The European red fox Vulpes vulpes represents a continuing threat to both livestock and native vertebrates in Australia, and is commonly managed by setting ground-level baits impregnated with 1080 (sodium fluoroacetate) poison. However, the long-term effectiveness of such control campaigns is likely to be limited due to the ability of foxes to disperse over considerable distances and to swiftly recolonize areas from where they had been removed. 2. To investigate the effectiveness of fox baiting in a production landscape, we assessed the potential for foxes to reinvade baited farm property areas within the jurisdiction of the Molong Rural Lands Protection Board (RLPB), an area of 815 000 ha on the central tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. The spatial distribution and timing of fox baiting campaigns between 1998 and 2002 was estimated from RLPB records and mapped using Geographical Information System software. The effectiveness of the control campaign was assessed on the basis of the likely immigration of foxes from non-baited farms using immigration distances calculated from published relationships between dispersal distance and home range size. 3. Few landholders undertook baiting campaigns in any given year, and the area baited was always so small that no baited property would have been sufficiently far from an unbaited property to have been immune from immigrating individuals. It is likely, therefore, that immigration onto farms negated any long-term effects of baiting operations. This study highlights some of the key deficiencies in current baiting practices in south-eastern Australia and suggests that pest management programmes should be monitored using such methods to ensure they achieve their goals.

Development and validation of an ELISA for detecting antibodies to Eimeria tenella in chickens

The aim of this study was to develop and validate an ELISA for detecting chicken antibodies to Eimeria tenella. An initial comparison of merozoite and sporozoite antigen preparations revealed few differences in their ability to monitor the onset, kinetics and magnitude of the antibody response suggesting that both antigens would be equally useful for development of an ELISA. Furthermore the cross-reactivity of these antigens with sera from birds infected with chicken Eimeria species was similar. The merozoite antigen was selected for further evaluation because it was easier to prepare. Discrimination between sera from birds experimentally infected with E. tenella and birds maintained in an Eimeria-free isolation facility was excellent. In sera collected from free-range layers and commercial broilers there also appeared to be clear discrimination between infected and uninfected birds. The ELISA should prove useful for monitoring infectivity in vaccination programmes in layer and breeder flocks and for assessing the effectiveness of biosecurity measures in broiler flocks.

Domestication to crop improvement: Genetic resources for Sorghum and Saccharum (Andropogoneae).

Background: Both sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) and sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) are members of the Andropogoneae tribe in the Poaceae and are each other's closest relatives amongst cultivated plants. Both are relatively recent domesticates and comparatively little of the genetic potential of these taxa and their wild relatives has been captured by breeding programmes to date. This review assesses the genetic gains made by plant breeders since domestication and the progress in the characterization of genetic resources and their utilization in crop improvement for these two related species. Genetic Resources: The genome of sorghum has recently been sequenced providing a great boost to our knowledge of the evolution of grass genomes and the wealth of diversity within S. bicolor taxa. Molecular analysis of the Sorghum genus has identified close relatives of S. bicolor with novel traits, endosperm structure and composition that may be used to expand the cultivated gene pool. Mutant populations (including TILLING populations) provide a useful addition to genetic resources for this species. Sugarcane is a complex polyploid with a large and variable number of copies of each gene. The wild relatives of sugarcane represent a reservoir of genetic diversity for use in sugarcane improvement. Techniques for quantitative molecular analysis of gene or allele copy number in this genetically complex crop have been developed. SNP discovery and mapping in sugarcane has been advanced by the development of high-throughput techniques for ecoTILLING in sugarcane. Genetic linkage maps of the sugarcane genome are being improved for use in breeding selection. The improvement of both sorghum and sugarcane will be accelerated by the incorporation of more diverse germplasm into the domesticated gene pools using molecular tools and the improved knowledge of these genomes.

Fishery biology and management of Protonibea diacanthus (Sciaenidae) aggregations in far Northern Cape York Peninsula waters

The sciaenid Protonibea diacanthus is a large, long-lived predatory fish of inshore northern Australian waters, which forms annual aggregations that are fished extensively by traditional (subsistence) and recreational fishers. There are now widespread concerns that the resource is being overexploited. Indigenous fishers of the Cape York Northern Peninsula Area (NPA) relate that large adult fish (up to 1500 mm total length (TL)) made up the bulk of the catch from the sciaenid aggregations until about 1994. In contrast, sexually mature P. diacanthus comprised only a small component (12 fish out of 270=4.4%) examined in a 1999–2000 sampling programme that was biased towards the largest individuals available. At 790 mm TL, the minimum size at first maturity for female P. diacanthus in this study is much smaller than the 920 mm TL reported previously in Queensland waters. Developing ovaries were observed in specimens sampled from sciaenid aggregations which formed in NPA waters between May and September 2000. However, no fish with ripe or spent gonads were found in the study, so the current timing and location of the spawning season for P. diacanthus in the region remain unknown. Food items observed in the analysis of the diet of P. diacanthus from the NPA included a variety of teleosts and invertebrates. The range of animal taxa represented in the prey items support the description of an ‘opportunistic predator’ attributed to the species. In our sampling, the stomach contents of fish caught during the time of the aggregation events did not differ from those observed at other times of the year. A total of 114 P. diacanthus were tagged and released at aggregation sites during the study period, and 3 fish (2.6%) were subsequently recaptured. The low rate of tag returns from the wild stock tagging programme, both in this study (2.6%) and from recreational fisher tag/release programmes for the sciaenid elsewhere in Queensland (6.5%), were not explained by tag loss nor mortality, given the high retention rate of tags and the zero mortality seen in tank trials. In response to the biological findings from this study, indigenous community councils of the NPA imposed a 2-year fishing moratorium for P. diacanthus. Surveys at aggregation sites in 2002 and 2003 established that much larger fish (mean size 103.5 cm TL) were again present on the grounds, albeit in very low numbers. These recent preliminary results highlight the critical need for continued monitoring and management of the P. diacanthus fishery in the NPA, if prospects for resource recovery are to be realised. The NPA initiative has provided a rare opportunity to negotiate a co-management strategy, based on scientific data and traditional knowledge, for the recovery of a cultural and economically significant fished resource.

Assessment and rationalization of genetic diversity of Papua New Guinea taro (Colocasia esculenta) using SSR DNA fingerprinting

Taro (Colocasia esculenta) accessions were collected from 15 provinces of Papua New Guinea (PNG). The collection, totalling 859 accessions was collated for characterization and a core collection of 81 accessions (10%) was established on the basis of characterization data generated on 30 agro-morphological descriptors, and DNA fingerprinting using seven SSR primers. The selection of accessions was based on cluster analysis of the morphological data enabling initial selection of 20% accessions. The 20% sample was then reduced and rationalized to 10% based on molecular data generated by SSR primers. This represents the first national core collection of any species established in PNG based on molecular markers. The core has been integrated with core from other Pacific Island countries, contributing to a Pacific regional core collection, which is conserved in vitro in the South Pacific Regional Germplasm Centre at Fiji. The core collection is a valuable resource for food security of the South Pacific region and is currently being utilized by the breeding programmes of small Pacific Island countries to broaden the genetic base of the crop.