Climatic-requirements models of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) to prioritise areas for exploration and release of biological control agents

Climate matching software (CLIMEX) was used to prioritise areas to explore for biological control agents in the native range of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), and to prioritise areas to release the agents in the introduced ranges of the plant. The native distribution of cat's claw creeper was used to predict the potential range of climatically suitable habitats for cat's claw creeper in its introduced ranges. A Composite Match Index (CMI) of cat's claw creeper was determined with the 'Match Climates' function in order to match the ranges in Australia and South Africa where the plant is introduced with its native range in South and Central America. This information was used to determine which areas might yield climatically-adapted agents. Locations in northern Argentina had CMI values which best matched sites with cat's claw creeper infestations in Australia and South Africa. None of the sites from where three currently prioritised biological control agents for cat's claw creeper were collected had CMI values higher than 0.8. The analysis showed that central and eastern Argentina, south Brazil, Uruguay and parts of Bolivia and Paraguay should be prioritised for exploration for new biological control agents for cat's claw creeper to be used in Australia and South Africa.

Timing of fungicide applications for control of husk spot caused by Pseudocercospora macadamiae in macadamia

Pseudocercospora macadamiae is an important pathogen of macadamia in Australia, causing a disease known as husk spot. Growers strive to control the disease with a number of carbendazim and copper treatments. The aim of this study was to consider the macadamia fruit developmental stage at which fungicide application is most effective against husk spot, and whether application of copper-only applications at full-size fruit developmental stage toward the end of the season contributed to effective disease control. Fungicides were applied to macadamia trees at four developmental stages in three orchards in two subsequent production seasons. The effects of the treatments on disease incidence and severity were quantified using area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) and logistic regression models. Although disease incidence varied between cultivars, incidence and severity on cv. A16 showed consistent differences between the treatments. Most significant reduction in husk spot incidence occurred when spraying commenced at match-head sized-fruit developmental stage. All treatments significantly reduced husk spot incidence and severity compared with the untreated controls, and a significant positive linear relationship (R2 = 73%) between AUDPC and severity showed that timing of the first fungicide application is important for effective disease control. Application of fungicide at full-size fruit stage reduced disease incidence but had no impact on premature fruit drop.

The introduction and release of Chiasmia inconspicua and C. assimilis (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) for the biological control of Acacia nilotica in Australia

Two geometrid moths Chiasmia inconspicua and Chiasmia assimilis, identified as potential biological control agents for prickly acacia Acacia nilotica subsp. indica, were collected in Kenya and imported into quarantine facilities in Australia where laboratory cultures were established. Aspects of the biologies of both insects were studied and CLIMEX® models indicating the climatically favourable areas of Australia were developed. Host range tests were conducted using an approved test list of 74 plant species and no-choice tests of neonate larvae placed on both cut foliage and potted plants. C. inconspicua developed through to adult on prickly acacia and, in small numbers, Acacia pulchella. C. assimilis developed through to adult on prickly acacia and also in very small numbers on A. pulchella, A. deanei, A. decurrens, and A. mearnsii. In all experiments, the response on prickly acacia could be clearly differentiated from the responses on the non-target species. Both insects were approved for release in Australia. Over a three-year period releases were made at multiple sites in north Queensland, almost all in inland areas. There was no evidence of either insect's establishment and both colonies were terminated. A new colony of C. assimilis was subsequently established from insects collected in South Africa and releases of C. assimilis from this new colony were made into coastal and inland infestations of prickly acacia. Establishment was rapid at one coastal site and the insect quickly spread to other infestations. Establishment at one inland area was also confirmed in early 2006. The establishment in coastal areas supported a CLIMEX model that indicated that the climate of coastal areas was more suitable than inland areas.

New efforts at biological control of Mikania micrantha H.B.K. (Asteraceae) in Papua New Guinea and Fiji.

New efforts at biological control of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes. Mikania micrantha H.B.K. (Asteraceae) in Papua New Guinea and Fiji.

Should the 40-year-old practice of releasing virulent myxoma virus to control rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) be continued?

Release of virulent myxoma virus has been a key component of rabbit-control operations in Queensland, Australia, since the 1960s but its use rests on anecdotal reports. During a routine operation to release virulent myxoma virus we found no evidence to support the continued regular use of the technique in south-west Queensland. Radio-tagged rabbits inoculated with virulent myxoma virus contracted the disease but failed to pass enough virus to other rabbits to spread the disease. Rabbits with clinical signs of myxomatosis that were shot were infected with field strain derived from the original laboratory strain released in 1950 rather than the virulent strain that has been released annually. There was no change in rabbit survival or abundance caused by the release. Nevertheless, the release of virulent virus may be useful against isolated pockets of rabbits mainly because field strains are less likely to be present. Such pockets are more common now that rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus is established in Queensland.

The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: an assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.

Demography of feral camels in central Australia and its relevance to population control

Since their release over 100 years ago, camels have spread across central Australia and increased in number. Increasingly, they are being seen as a pest, with observed impacts from overgrazing and damage to infrastructure such as fences. Irregular aerial surveys since 1983 and an interview-based survey in 1966 suggest that camels have been increasing at close to their maximum rate. A comparison of three models of population growth fitted to these, albeit limited, data suggests that the Northern Territory population has indeed been growing at an annual exponential rate of r = 0.074, or 8% per year, with little evidence of a density-dependent brake. A stage-structured model using life history data from a central Australian camel population suggests that this rate approximates the theoretical maximum. Elasticity analysis indicates that adult survival is by far the biggest influence on rate of increase and that a 9% reduction in survival from 96% is needed to stop the population growing. In contrast, at least 70% of mature females need to be sterilised to have a similar effect. In a benign environment, a population of large mammals such as camels is expected to grow exponentially until close to carrying capacity. This will frustrate control programs, because an ever-increasing number of animals will need to be removed for zero growth the longer that culling or harvesting effort is delayed. A population projection for 2008 suggests ~10 500 animals need to be harvested across the Northern Territory. Current harvests are well short of this. The ability of commercial harvesting to control camel populations in central Australia will depend on the value of animals, access to animals and the presence of alternative species to harvest when camels are at low density.

Modeling population growth and site specific control of the invasive Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) under differing fire regimes

It is at the population level that an invasion either fails or succeeds. Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) is a weed of great significance in Queensland Australia and globally but its whole life-history ecology is poorly known. Here we used 3 years of field data across four land use types (farm, hoop pine plantation and two open eucalyptus forests, including one with a triennial fire regime) to parameterise the weed’s vital rates and develop size-structured matrix models. Lantana camara in its re-colonization phase, as observed in the recently cleared hoop pine plantation, was projected to increase more rapidly (annual growth rate, λ = 3.80) than at the other three sites (λ 1.88–2.71). Elasticity analyses indicated that growth contributed more (64.6 %) to λ than fecundity (18.5 %) or survival (15.5 %), while across size groups, the contribution was of the order: juvenile (19–27 %) ≥ seed (17–28 %) ≥ seedling (16–25 %) > small adult (4–26 %) ≥ medium adult (7–20 %) > large adult (0–20 %). From a control perspective it is difficult to determine a single weak point in the life cycle of lantana that might be exploited to reduce growth below a sustaining rate. The triennial fire regime applied did not alter the population elasticity structure nor resulted in local control of the weed. However, simulations showed that, except for the farm population, periodic burning could work within 4–10 years for control of the weed, but fire frequency should increase to at least once every 2 years. For the farm, site-specific control may be achieved by 15 years if the biennial fire frequency is tempered with increased burning intensity.

Evaluation of the efficacy and economics of irrigation management, plant resistance and Brassica(spot)(TM) models for management of white blister on Brassica crops

Options for the integrated management of white blister (caused by Albugo candida) of Brassica crops include the use of well timed overhead irrigation, resistant cultivars, programs of weekly fungicide sprays or strategic fungicide applications based on the disease risk prediction model, Brassica(spot)(TM). Initial systematic surveys of radish producers near Melbourne, Victoria, indicated that crops irrigated overhead in the morning (0800-1200 h) had a lower incidence of white blister than those irrigated overhead in the evening (2000-2400 h). A field trial was conducted from July to November 2008 on a broccoli crop located west of Melbourne to determine the efficacy and economics of different practices used for white blister control, modifying irrigation timing, growing a resistant cultivar and timing spray applications based on Brassica(spot)(TM). Growing the resistant cultivar, 'Tyson', instead of the susceptible cultivar, 'Ironman', reduced disease incidence on broccoli heads by 99 %. Overhead irrigation at 0400 h instead of 2000 h reduced disease incidence by 58 %. A weekly spray program or a spray regime based on either of two versions of the Brassica(spot)(TM) model provided similar disease control and reduced disease incidence by 72 to 83 %. However, use of the Brassica(spot)(TM) models greatly reduced the number of sprays required for control from 14 to one or two. An economic analysis showed that growing the more resistant cultivar increased farm profit per ha by 12 %, choosing morning irrigation by 3 % and using the disease risk predictive models compared with weekly sprays by 15 %. The disease risk predictive models were 4 % more profitable than the unsprayed control.