The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

VG07023 Driving better vegetable irrigation through profitable practice change

Despite recent flooding in eastern Australia, the availability/quality of irrigation water is a long-term issue for Australian vegetable growers. To survive, producers are told to implement new technologies. However, there is often little practical information investigating which improvements could make a real difference, and keep production profitable. In an Horticulture Australia Ltd three year project, scientists from the Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation (QLD), CSIRO, Department of Industry and Investment (NSW), and the National Centre for Engineering in Agriculture, evaluated practical irrigation improvements. We conducted experiments and case studies on farms in southern Queensland and Riverina vegetable districts, with over 100 extension events, including irrigation workshops, conferences, and field days.

Complementary forages – integration at a whole-farm level

A high proportion of the Australian and New Zealand dairy industry is based on a relatively simple, low input and low cost pasture feedbase. These factors enable this type of production system to remain internationally competitive. However, a key limitation of pasture-based dairy systems is periodic imbalances between herd intake requirements and pasture DM production, caused by strong seasonality and high inter-annual variation in feed supply. This disparity can be moderated to a certain degree through the strategic management of the herd through altering calving dates and stocking rates, and the feedbase by conserving excess forage and irrigating to flatten seasonal forage availability. Australasian dairy systems are experiencing emerging market and environmental challenges, which includes increased competition for land and water resources, decreasing terms of trade, a changing and variable climate, an increasing environmental focus that requires improved nutrient and water-use efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions. The integration of complementary forages has long been viewed as a means to manipulate the home-grown feed supply, to improve the nutritive value and DM intake of the diet, and to increase the efficiency of inputs utilised. Only recently has integrating complementary forages at the whole-farm system level received the significant attention and investment required to examine their potential benefit. Recent whole-of-farm research undertaken in both Australia and New Zealand has highlighted the importance of understanding the challenges of the current feedbase and the level of complementarity between forage types required to improve profit, manage risk and/or alleviate/mitigate against adverse outcomes. This paper reviews the most recent systems-level research into complementary forages, discusses approaches to modelling their integration at the whole-farm level and highlights the potential of complementary forages to address the major challenges currently facing pasture-based dairy systems.