Effective Use in Livestock Feeds of Mouldy and Weather-damaged Grain Containing Mycotoxins-Case Histories and Economic Assessments Pertaining to Pig and Poultry Industries of Queensland

Mould growth in field crops or stored grain reduces starch and lipid content, with consequent increases in fibre, and an overall reduction in digestible energy; palatability is often adversely affected. If these factors are allowed for, and mycotoxin concentrations are low, there are sound economic reasons for using this cheaper grain. Mycotoxins are common in stock feed but their effects on animal productivity are usually slight because either the concentration is too low or the animal is tolerant to the toxin. In Australia, aflatoxins occur in peanut by-products and in maize and sorghum if the grain is moist when stored. Zearalenone is found in maize and in sorghum and wheat in wetter regions. Nivalenol and deoxynivalenol are found in maize and wheat but at concentrations that rarely affect pigs, with chickens and cattle being even more tolerant. Other mycotoxins including cyclopiazonic acid, T-2 toxin, cytochalasins and tenuazonic acid are produced by Australian fungi in culture but are not found to be significant grain contaminants. Extremely mouldy sorghum containing Alternaria and Fusarium mycotoxins decreased feed conversion in pigs and chickens by up to 14%. However, E moniliforme- and Diplodia maydis-infected maize produced only slight reductions in feed intake by pigs and Ustilago- infected barley produced no ill effects. Use of these grains would substantially increase profits if the grain can be purchased cheaply.

The mycotoxins 4-deoxynivalenol, zearalenone and aflatoxin in weather-damaged wheat harvested 1983-1985 in south-east Queensland

A survey for various mycotoxins was carried out on samples of all wheat delivered to nine storage and marketing depots in south-eastern Queensland, selected as most likely to receive mycotoxin-contaminated grain. All wheat was surveyed during 1983, when the degree of weather damage was high. Samples of the poorest grade of wheat from these depots were also surveyed in 1984 and 1985. The surveys included all regions where head scab of wheat caused by Fusariurn graminearurn Schwabe Group 2 had been reported to occur at significant levels. 4-Deoxynivalenol was detected in nearly all pooled samples representing bulk wheat at concentrations ranging from traces of <0.01 up to 1.7 mg kg-1. The highest concentration of zearlenone detected in a pooled wheat sample was 0.04 mg kg-1. In a few samples representing individual wheat deliveries and with up to 2.8% by weight of pink grains, 4-deoxynivalenol concentrations ranged up to 11.7 mg kg-' and zearalenone up to 0.43 mg kg-l. Aflatoxins B,, B2, G1 and G2 were detected in only one pooled sample of wheat, at a total aflatoxin concentration of 0.003 mg kg-'. Ochratoxin A, sterigmatocystin and T-2 toxin were not detected. Higher concentrations of mycotoxins were found in the poorer grades of wheat.

Historical demography of Lantana camara L. reveals clues about the influence of land use and weather in the management of this widespread invasive species

Weather is a general stochastic influence on the life history of weeds. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance (e.g. land use) is an important deterministic influence on weed demography. Our aim with this study was to investigate the relative contributions of land use and weather on the demography of Lantana camara (lantana), a weed of agricultural and natural habitats, based on the intensive monitoring of lantana populations under three land uses (viz. farm[pasture], and burnt and grazed forests) in subtropical Australia. Lantana populations were growing vigorously across all land uses (asymptotic population growth rate, lambda > 3). Examination of historical demography using retrospective perturbation analyses showed that weather was a strong influence on lantana demography with the transition from an El Nino (2008-09) to a La Nina (2009-10) year having a strong positive effect on population growth rate. This effect was most marked at the grazed site, and to a lesser extent at the burnt site, with seedling-to-juvenile and juvenile-to-adult transitions contributing most to these effects. This is likely the result of burning and grazing having eliminated/reduced interspecific competition at these sites. Prospective perturbation analyses revealed that lambda was most sensitive to proportionate changes in growth transitions, followed by fecundity and survival transitions. Examination of context-specific patterns in elasticity revealed that growth and fecundity transitions are likely to be the more critical vital rates to reduce lambda in wet years at the burnt and grazed forest sites, compared to the farm/pasture site. Management of lantana may need to limit the transition of juveniles into the adult stages, especially in sites where lantana is free from competition (e.g. in the presence of fire or grazing), and this particularly needs to be achieved in wet years. Collectively, these results shed light on aspects of spatial and temporal variation in the demography of lantana, and offer insights on its context-specific management.

Historical demography of Lantana camara L. reveals clues about the influence of land use and weather in the management of this widespread invasive species

Weather is a general stochastic influence on the life history of weeds. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance (e.g. land use) is an important deterministic influence on weed demography. Our aim with this study was to investigate the relative contributions of land use and weather on the demography of Lantana camara (lantana), a weed of agricultural and natural habitats, based on the intensive monitoring of lantana populations under three land uses (viz. farm[pasture], and burnt and grazed forests) in subtropical Australia. Lantana populations were growing vigorously across all land uses (asymptotic population growth rate, λ > 3). Examination of historical demography using retrospective perturbation analyses showed that weather was a strong influence on lantana demography with the transition from an El Niño (2008–09) to a La Niña (2009–10) year having a strong positive effect on population growth rate. This effect was most marked at the grazed site, and to a lesser extent at the burnt site, with seedling-to-juvenile and juvenile-to-adult transitions contributing most to these effects. This is likely the result of burning and grazing having eliminated/reduced interspecific competition at these sites. Prospective perturbation analyses revealed that λ was most sensitive to proportionate changes in growth transitions, followed by fecundity and survival transitions. Examination of context-specific patterns in elasticity revealed that growth and fecundity transitions are likely to be the more critical vital rates to reduce λ in wet years at the burnt and grazed forest sites, compared to the farm/pasture site. Management of lantana may need to limit the transition of juveniles into the adult stages, especially in sites where lantana is free from competition (e.g. in the presence of fire or grazing), and this particularly needs to be achieved in wet years. Collectively, these results shed light on aspects of spatial and temporal variation in the demography of lantana, and offer insights on its context-specific management.

Breeding and fecundity of the endemic Australian gudgeon, sleepy cod Oxyeleotris lineolatus (Steindachner 1867) (Eleotridae)

Sleepy cod (Oxyeleotris lineolatus Steindachner) is a tropical species of eleotrid native to northern Australia. A related species, sand or marbled goby, is the highest priced freshwater fish in Asia, and a market for a similar fish exists in expatriate Chinese communities. Sleepy cod breed when minimum temperatures reach 24 °C for more than 3 days. During the breeding season the genital papilla is broad and flattened in females compared to the triangular papilla of males and juveniles. Spawning pairs were usually of approximately equal size. Females could spawn up to 10 times during one breeding season. Wet weather increased the frequency of spawning. Eggs were usually laid hanging from the underside of a surface. Most spawning occurred between 05:00 and 10:00 h. Females attended egg masses immediately after spawning, after which males cared for eggs until hatching, 3–5 days later. Agitation of the egg mass was essential for development. The mean number of eggs per spawning was 43 130. Larvae commenced feeding 2–5 days after hatching, on plankton from 100 to 250 m in size. A spawning trap used to collect egg masses is described. The breeding biology of sleepy cod is considered to be an adaptation to the monsoonal tropics.

The effect of row configuration on yield reliability in grain sorghum: II. Modelling the effects of row configuration

In recent years many sorghum producers in the more marginal (<600 mm annual rainfall) cropping areas of Qld and northern NSW have utilised skip row configurations in an attempt to improve yield reliability and reduce sorghum production risk. But will this work in the long run? What are the trade-offs between productivity and risk of crop failure? This paper describes a modelling and simulation approach to study the long-term effects of skip row configurations. Detailed measurements of light interception and water extraction from sorghum crops grown in solid, single and double skip row configurations were collected from three on-farm participatory research trials established in southern Qld and northern NSW. These measurements resulted in changes to the model that accounted for the elliptical water uptake pattern below the crop row and reduced total light interception associated with the leaf area reduction of the skip configuration. Following validation of the model, long-term simulation runs using historical weather data were used to determine the value of skip row sorghum production as a means of maintaining yield reliability in the dryland cropping regions of southern Qld and northern NSW.

Rejection by pigs of mouldy grain containing deoxynivalenol

Weaner pigs on a farm near Beaudesert in south eastern Queensland refused to eat feed comprised largely of wheat and barley. Older pigs consumed small amounts and some prepubertal gilts subsequently displayed enlarged and reddened vulvas. Wheat, barley and triticale were grown on the farm during 1983, which was unusually and persistently wet. The wheat and triticale were harvested and stored for about 3 weeks with moisture contents above 14% before being fed. Samples of the wheat and triticale contained pale pink grains, which can indicate infection by the fungus Fusariurn grarninearurn Schw. On analysis 2 mycotoxins known to be produced by F. graminearurn were detected, deoxynivalenol (vomitoxin) which causes feed refusal and vomiting, and zearalenone which causes oestrogenic effects. Concentrations of deoxynivalenol in the wheat, triticale and barley were 34, 10, and <0.1 mg/kg respectively. Concentrations of zearalenone were 6.2, 2.8 and 0.1 mg/kg respectively. Subsequently, F. grarninearurn was isolated from grains and crop residues. Although the wet weather contributed to F. grarninearurn infection of the crops before harvest, most of the toxins probably developed during storage.

Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry

The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Effect of surface-applied treatments on the above-ground performance of simulated timber joinery

We examined the effect of surface-applied treatments on the above-ground decay resistance of the tenon of mortice-and-tenon timber joints designed to simulate joinery that is exposed to the weather. Joints made from untreated radiata pine, Douglas-fir, brush box, spotted gum and copper-chrome-arsenic (CCA) treated radiata pine were exposed to the weather for 9 y on above-ground racks at five sites throughout eastern Australia. Results indicate (1) a poorly maintained external paint film generally accelerated decay, (2) a brush coat of water-repellent preservative inside the joints often extended serviceability (in some cases by a factor of up to seven times that of untreated joints) and (3) the level of protection provided by a coat of primer applied inside the joint varied and in most cases was not as effective as the water-repellent preservative treatment.

Development and Accreditation of an Applied Climate Education Unit for Sustainable Land Use in Australia

In recent years, there have been significant developments in climate science relevant to agriculture and natural resource management. Assessing impacts of climate variability and use of seasonal climate forecasts have become increasingly important elements in the management "toolkit" for many Australian farmers. Consideration of climate change further increases the need for improved management strategies. While climate risk extension activities have kept pace with advances in climate science, a national review of the Vocational Education and Training system in Australia in relation to "weather and climate" showed that these topics were "poorly represented" at the management level in the Australian Qualifications Framework, and needed increased emphasis. Consequently, a new Unit of Competency concerning management of climatic risk was developed and accredited to address this deficiency. The objective of the unit was to build knowledge and skills for better management of climate variability via the elements of surveying climatic and enterprise data; analysing climatic risks and opportunities; and developing climatic risk management strategies. This paper describes establishment of a new unit for vocational education that is designed to harness recent developments in applied climate science for better management of Australia's highly variable climate. The main benefits of the new unit of competency, "Developing climatic risk management strategies,"were seen as improving decisions in climate and agriculture, and reducing climate risk exposure to enhance sustainable agriculture. The educational unit is now within the scope of agricultural colleges, universities, and registered training organisations as an accredited unit.

Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Patterns of release of the secondary conidia of Claviceps africana, the sorghum ergot pathogen in Australia

Trials were conducted in southern Queensland, Australia between March and May 2003, 2004 and 2005 to study patterns of hourly and daily release of the secondary conidia of Claviceps africana and their relationships with weather parameters. Conidia were trapped for at least one hour on most (> 90%) days in 2003 and 2004, but only on 55% of days in 2005. Both the highest daily concentration of conidia, and the highest number of hours per day when conidia were trapped, were recorded 1-3 days after rainfall events. Although the pattern of conidial release was different every day, the highest hourly conidial concentrations occurred between 10.00 hours and 17.00 hours on 73% of all days in the three trials. Hours when conidia were trapped were characterized by higher median values of temperature, windspeed and vapour pressure deficit, lower relative humidity, and leaf wetness values of 0%, than hours when no conidia were recorded. The results indicate that fungicides need to be applied to the highly ergot-susceptible male sterile (A-) lines of sorghum in hybrid seed production blocks and breeders' nurseries as soon as possible after rainfall events to minimize ergot severity.

Sorghum ergot can develop without local Claviceps africana inoculum from nearby infected plants

Batches of glasshouse-grown flowering sorghum plants were placed in circular plots for 24 h at two field sites in southeast Queensland, Australia on 38 occasions in 2003 and 2004, to trap aerial inoculum of Claviceps africana. Plants were located 20-200 m from the centre of the plots. Batches of sorghum plants with secondary conidia of C. africana on inoculated spikelets were placed at the centre of each plot on some dates as a local point source of inoculum. Plants exposed to field inoculum were returned to a glasshouse, incubated at near-100% relative humidity for 48 h and then at ambient relative humidity for another week before counting infected spikelets to estimate pathogen dispersal. Three times as many spikelets became infected when inoculum was present within 200 m of trap plants, but infected spikelets did not decline with increasing distance from local source within the 200 m. Spikelets also became infected on all 10 dates when plants were exposed without a local source of infected plants, indicating that infection can occur from conidia surviving in the atmosphere. In 2005, when trap plants were placed at 14 locations along a 280 km route, infected spikelets diminished with increasing distance from sorghum paddocks and infection was sporadic for distances over 1 km. Multiple regression analysis showed significant influence of moisture related weather variables on inoculum dispersal. Results suggest that sanitation measures can help reduce ergot severity at the local level, but sustainable management will require better understanding of long-distance dispersal of C. africana inoculum.

Effects of environmental heat on conception rates in lactating dairy cows: Critical periods of exposure

Environmental heat can reduce conception rates (the proportion of services that result in pregnancy) in lactating dairy cows. The study objectives were to identify periods of exposure relative to the service date in which environmental heat is most closely associated with conception rates, and to assess whether the total time cows are exposed to high environmental heat within each 24-h period is more closely associated with conception rates than is the maximum environmental heat for each 24-h period. A retrospective observational study was conducted in 25 predominantly Holstein-Friesian commercial dairy herds located in Australia. Associations between weather and conception rates were assessed using 16,878 services performed over a 21-mo period. Services were classified as successful based on rectal palpation. Two measures of heat load were defined for each 24-h period: the maximum temperature-humidity index (THI) for the period, and the number of hours in the 24-h period when the THI was >72. Conception rates were reduced when cows were exposed to a high heat load from the day of service to 6 d after service, and in wk -1. Heat loads in wk -3 to -5 were also associated with reduced conception rates. Thus, management interventions to ameliorate the effects of heat load on conception rates should be implemented at least 5 wk before anticipated service and should continue until at least 1 wk after service. High autocorrelations existed between successive daily values in both measures, and associations between day of heat load relative to service day and conception rates differed substantially when ridge regression was used to account for this autocorrelation. This indicates that when assessing the effects of heat load on conception rates, the autocorrelation in heat load between days should be accounted for in analyses. The results suggest that either weekly averages or totals summarizing the daily heat load are adequate to describe heat load when assessing effects on conception rates in lactating dairy cows.