Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

Modelling Leaf Production and Crop Development in Maize (Zea mays L.) After Tassel Initiation Under Diverse Conditions of Temperature and Photoperiod

Prediction of the initiation, appearance and emergence of leaves is critically important to the success of simulation models of crop canopy development and some aspects of crop ontogeny. Data on leaf number and crop ontogeny were collected on five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and genetic background grown under natural and extended photoperiods, and planted on seven sowing dates from October 1993 to March 1994 at Gatton, South-east Queensland. The same temperature coefficients were established for crop ontogeny before silking, and the rates of leaf initiation, leaf tip appearance and full leaf expansion, the base, optimum and maximum temperatures for each being 8, 34 and 40 degrees C. After silking, the base temperature for ontogeny was 0 degrees C, but the optimum and maximum temperatures remained unchanged. The rates of leaf initiation, appearance of leaf tips and full leaf expansion varied in a relatively narrow range across sowing times and photoperiod treatments, with average values of 0.040 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, 0.021 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, and 0.019 leaves (degrees Cd)-1, respectively. The relationships developed in this study provided satisfactory predictions of leaf number and crop ontogeny (tassel initiation to silking, emergence to silking and silking to physiological maturity) when assessed using independent data from Gatton (South eastern Queensland), Katherine and Douglas Daly (Northern Territory), Walkamin (North Queensland) and Kununurra (Western Australia).

Long-term persistence and efficacy of spinosad against Rhyzopertha dominica (Coleoptera : Bostrychidae) in wheat

A laboratory study was undertaken to determine the persistence and efficacy of spinosad against Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) in wheat stored for 9 months at 30 degrees C and 55 and 70% relative humidity. The aim was to investigate the potential of spinosad for protecting wheat from R. dominica during long-term storage in warm climates. Wheat was treated with spinosad at 0.1, 0.5 and 1 mg kg(-1) grain and sampled after 0, 1.5, 3, 4.5, 6, 7.5 and 9 months of storage for bioassays and residue analyses. Residues were estimated to have declined by 30% during 9 months of storage at 30 degrees C and there was no effect of relative humidity. Spinosad applied at 0.5 or 1 mg kg(-1) was completely effective for 9 months, with 100% adult mortality after 14 days of exposure and no five F, adults produced. Adult mortality was < 100% in some samples of wheat treated with 0.1 mg kg(-1) of spinosad, and live progeny were produced in all samples treated at this level. The results show that spinosad is likely to be an effective grain protectant against R. dominica in wheat stored in warm climates.

Soil sorption-desorption of phosphorus from piggery effluent compared with inorganic sources

The leaching of phosphorus (P) within soils can be a limiting consideration for the sustainable operation of intensive livestock enterprises. Sorption curves are widely used to assist estimation of P retention, though the effect of effluent constituents on their accuracy is not well understood. We conducted a series of P-sorption-desorption batch experiments with an Oxic Haplustalf (soil 1), Haplusterts (soils 2 and 3), and a Natrustalf (soil 4). Phosphorus sources included effluent, orthophosphate-P in a matrix replicating the effluent's salt constituents (the reference solution), and an orthophosphate-P solution. Treated soils were incubated for up to 193 days before sequential desorption extraction. Effluent constituents, probably the organic or particulate components, temporarily increased the vulnerability of sorbed-P to desorption. The increase in vulnerability was removed by 2-113 days of incubation (25 degrees C). Despite vigorous extraction for 20 consecutive days, some P sorbed as part of the treatments of soils 1 and 2 was not desorbed. The increased vulnerability due to effluent constituents lasted a maximum of about one cropping season and, for all other treatments, adsorption curves overestimated vulnerability to desorption. Therefore, adsorption curves provide a conservative estimate of vulnerability to desorption where effluent is used in continued crop production in these soils.

Cultivar affects browning susceptibility of freshly cut star fruit slices

Consumption of freshly-cut horticultural products has increased in the last few years. The principal restraint to using freshly-cut carambola is its susceptibility to tissue-browning, due to polyphenol oxidase-mediated oxidation of phenolic compounds present in the tissue. The current study investigated the susceptibility to browning of star fruit slices (Averrhoa carambola L.) of seven genotypes (Hart, Golden Star, Taen-ma, Nota-10, Malasia, Arkin, and Fwang Tung). Cultivar susceptibility to browning as measured by luminosity (L*) varied significantly among genotypes. Without catechol 0.05 M, little changes occurred on cut surface of any cultivars during 6 hour at 25 degrees C, 67% RH. Addition of catechol led to rapid browning, which was more intense in cvs. Taen-ma, Fwang Tung, and Golden Star, with reduction in L* value of 28.60%, 27.68%, and 23.29%, respectively. Browning was more intense in the center of the slices, particularly when treated with catechol, indicating highest polyphenol oxidase (PPO) concentration. Epidermal browning, even in absence of catechol, is a limitation to visual acceptability and indicates a necessity for its control during carambola processing. Care must be given to appropriate selection of cultivars for fresh-cut processing, since cultivar varied in browning susceptibility in the presence of catechol.

Dietary composition manipulation to enhance the performance of juvenile barramundi (Lates calcarifer Bloch) reared in cool water

Barramundi Lates calcarifer reared in cool water (20-22 degrees C) grow slowly and feed is used poorly compared with fish in warm water (28-32 degrees C). Two comparative slaughter growth assays were carried out with juvenile barramundi to see if increasing the digestible energy (DE) and/or the n-3 highly unsaturated fatty acid (n-3 HUFA) content of the feed would improve growth of fish raised in cool water. Increasing the DE content of the feed from 15 to 17 or 19 MJ kg(-1) while maintaining a constant protein to energy ratio in Experiment 1 brought about significant improvements in feed conversion ratio (FCR) (from 2.01 to 1.19) and daily growth coefficient (DGC; from 0.69 to 1.08%/day) for fish at 20 degrees C. For fish at 29 degrees C, improvements, while significant, were of a lesser magnitude: from 1.32 to 0.97 for FCR and from 3.24 to 3.65%/day for DGC. Increasing the absolute amount of dietary n-3 HUFA, expressed as the sum of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic fatty acids, from 0.5% to 2.0% in Experiment 2 improved DGC linearly and FCR curvilinearly for fish at 29 degrees C whereas at 20 degrees C, DGC was not affected while FCR improved slightly (from 1.83 to 1.68). Feed conversion ratio was optimized with a dietary n-3 HUFA of about 1.5%. Providing barramundi with a feed that is high in DE (viz 19 MJ kg(-1)) and a digestible protein to DE ratio of 22.5 g MJ(-1) is a practical strategy for improving the productivity of barramundi cultured in cool water whereas increasing dietary n-3 HUFA conferred very little additional benefit.

Herpesviral haematopoietic necrosis virus (CyHV-2) infection: case studies from commercial goldfish farms

Herpesviral haematopoietic necrosis is a disease of goldfish, Carassius auratus, caused by Cyprinid herpesvirus-2 (CyHV-2) infection. Quantitative PCR was carried out on tissue homogenates from healthy goldfish fingerlings, broodfish, eggs and fry directly sampled from commercial farms, from moribund fish submitted to our laboratory for disease diagnosis, and on naturally-infected CyHV-2 carriers subjected to experimental stress treatments. Healthy fish from 14 of 18 farms were positive with copy numbers ranging from tens to 10(7) copies mu g(-1) DNA extracted from infected fish. Of 118 pools of broodfish tested, 42 were positive. The CyHV-2 was detected in one lot of fry produced from disinfected eggs. Testing of moribund goldfish, in which we could not detect any other pathogens, produced 12 of 30 cases with 10(6)-10(8) copies of CyHV-2 mu g(-1) DNA extracted. Subjecting healthy CyHV-2 carriers to cold shock (22-10 degrees C) but not heat, ammonia or high pH, increased viral copy numbers from mean copy number (+/- SE) of 7.3 +/- 11 to 394 +/- 55 mu g(-1) DNA extracted after 24 h. CyHV-2 is widespread on commercial goldfish farms and outbreaks apparently occur when healthy carriers are subjected to a sharp temperature drop followed by holding at the permissive temperature for the disease.

Spontaneous fermentation of traditional sago starch in Papua New Guinea

Sago starch is an important dietary carbohydrate in lowland Papua New Guinea (PNG). An investigation was conducted to determine whether microbes play a role in its preservation using traditional methods. In 12 stored sago samples collected from PNG villages, lactic acid bacteria (LAB) were present (>= 3.6 x 10(4) cfu/g) and pH ranged from 6.8 to 4.2. Acetic and propionic acids were detected in all samples, while butyric, lactic and valeric acids were present in six or more. In freshly prepared sago, held in sealed containers in the laboratory at 30 degrees C, spontaneous fermentation by endogenous microflora of sago starch was observed. This was evident by increasing concentrations of acetic, butyric and lactic acids over 4 weeks, and pH reducing from 4.9 to 3.1: both LAB and yeasts were involved. Survival of potential bacterial pathogens was monitored by seeding sago starch with similar to 10(4)/g of selected organisms. Numbers of Bacillus cereus, Listeria monocytogenes and Staphylococcus aureus fell to <30/g within 7 days. Salmonella sp. was present only in low numbers after 7 days (<36/g), but Escherichia coli was still detectable after three weeks (>10(2)/g). Fermentation appeared to increase the storability and safety of the product.

A new culture method for lesser mealworm, Alphitobius diaperinus

A new culture method for lesser mealworm, Alphitobius diaperinus (Panzer), was developed to provide large numbers of adult lesser mealworms of approximately the same age for insecticide resistance testing. Culturing entailed allowing 100 adults to reproduce for 4 days in a wheat-based culture medium contained inside a plastic culture box, removing the adults from the medium, and then rearing their progeny to adulthood therein, in approximately 56 days at 32 degrees C and 55% RH. During their development, progeny were supplied water via apple slices at 0, 21 and 35 days, and a foam substrate in which to pupate, also at 35 days. During 2004-2005, adult lesser mealworms were collected from six broiler-house populations and then cultured with this method. Each population produced 4500 adults required to complete resistance testing with one insecticide within ten culture boxes, at an average of 798 adults per culture box.

Relationship between the Physicochemical Properties of Nonchitinolytic Listeria and Salmonella and Their Attachment to Shrimp Carapace

Listeria and Salmonella are important foodborne pathogens normally associated with the shrimp production chain. This study investigated the potential of Salmonella Typhimurium, Salmonella Senftenberg, and Listeria monocytogenes (Scott A and V7) to attach to and colonize shrimp carapace. Attachment and colonization of Listeria and Salmonella were demonstrated. Shrimp abdominal carapaces showed higher levels of bacterial attachment (P < 0.05) than did head carapaces. Listeria consistently exhibited greater attachment (P < 0.05) than did Salmonella on all surfaces. Chitinase activity of all strains was tested and found not to occur at the three temperatures (10, 25. and 37 degrees C) tested. The surface physicochemical properties of bacterial cells and shrimp carapace were Studied to determine their role in attachment and colonization. Salmonella had significantly (P < 0.05) more positive (-3.9 and -6.0 mV) cell surface charge than Listeria (-18 and -22.8 mV) had. Both bacterial species were found to be hydrophilic (<35%) when measured by the bacterial adherence to hydrocarbon method and by contact angle (theta) measurements (Listeria, 21.3 and 24.8 degrees, and Salmonella, 14.5 and 18.9 degrees). The percentage of cells retained by Pheryl-Sepharose was lower for Salmonella (12.8 to 14.8%) than it was for Listeria (26.5 to 31.4%). The shrimp carapace was found to be hydrophobic (theta = 74.5 degrees), and a significant (P < 0.05) difference in surface roughness between carapace types was noted. There was a linear correlation between bacterial cell Surface charge (r(2) = 0.95) and hydrophobicity (r(2) = 0.85) and initial attachment (P < 0.05) of Listeria and Salmonella to carapaces. However, the same properties Could not be related to subsequent colonization.

Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia.

Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO2 in temperate (C-3) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C-3/C-4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C-4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.4 degrees C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C-4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.3 degrees C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

Differing mechanisms of simple nitrile formation on glucosinolate degradation in Lepidium sativum and Nasturtium officinale seeds.

Glucosinolates are sulphur-containing glycosides found in brassicaceous plants that can be hydrolysed enzymatically by plant myrosinase or non-enzymatically to form primarily isothiocyanates and/or simple nitriles. From a human health perspective, isothiocyanates are quite important because they are major inducers of carcinogen-detoxifying enzymes. Two of the most potent inducers are benzyl isothiocyanate (BITC) present in garden cress (Lepidium sativum), and phenylethyl isothiocyanate (PEITC) present in watercress (Nasturtium officinale). Previous studies on these salad crops have indicated that significant amounts of simple nitriles are produced at the expense of the isothiocyanates. These studies also suggested that nitrile formation may occur by different pathways: (1) under the control of specifier protein in garden cress and (2) by an unspecified, non-enzymatic path in watercress. In an effort to understand more about the mechanisms involved in simple nitrile formation in these species, we analysed their seeds for specifier protein and myrosinase activities, endogenous iron content and glucosinolate degradation products after addition of different iron species, specific chelators and various heat treatments. We confirmed that simple nitrile formation was predominantly under specifier protein control (thiocyanate-forming protein) in garden cress seeds. Limited thermal degradation of the major glucosinolate, glucotropaeolin (benzyl glucosinolate), occurred when seed material was heated to >120 degrees C. In the watercress seeds, however, we show for the first time that gluconasturtiin (phenylethyl glucosinolate) undergoes a non-enzymatic, iron-dependent degradation to a simple nitrile. On heating the seeds to 120 degrees C or greater, thermal degradation of this heat-labile glucosinolate increased simple nitrile levels many fold.

Cellular stages of root formation, root system quality and survival of Pinus elliottii var. elliottii x P. caribaea var. hondurensis cuttings in different temperature environments.

Time to first root in cuttings varies under different environmental conditions and understanding these differences is critical for optimizing propagation of commercial forestry species. Temperature environment (15, 25, 30 or 35 +/- A 2A degrees C) had no effect on the cellular stages in root formation of the Slash x Caribbean Pine hybrid over 16 weeks as determined by histology. Initially callus cells formed in the cortex, then tracheids developed and formed primordia leading to external roots. However, speed of development followed a growth curve with the fastest development occurring at 25A degrees C and slowest at 15A degrees C with rooting percentages at week 12 of 80 and 0% respectively. Cutting survival was good in the three cooler temperature regimes (> 80%) but reduced to 59% at 35A degrees C. Root formation appeared to be dependant on the initiation of tracheids because all un-rooted cuttings had callus tissue but no tracheids, irrespective of temperature treatment and clone.

Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

Timing of infection of macadamia fruit by Pseudocercospora macadamiae and climatic effects on growth and spore germination.

Pseudocercospora macadamiae causes husk spot of macadamia. Husk spot control would be improved by verifying the stages in fruit development susceptible to infection, and determine some of the climatic conditions likely to lead to high disease pressure periods in the field. Our results showed that the percent conidia germination and growth of germ tubes and mycelia of P. macadamiae were greatest at 26 degrees C, with better conidia germination associated with high relative humidity and free water. The exposure of match-head-sized and pea-sized fruit stages to natural P. macadamiae inoculum in the field led to 2 5-fold increases in husk spot incidence, and up to 8.5-fold increases in premature abscission, compared with unexposed fruit. Exposure of fruit stages later than match-head-sized and pea-sized fruit generally caused no further increases in disease incidence or premature abscission. Climatic conditions were found to have a strong influence on the behaviour of P. macadamiae, the host, oil accumulation, and the subsequent impact of husk spot on premature abscission. Our findings suggest that fungicide application should target fruit at the match-head-sized stage of development in order to best reduce yield losses, particularly in seasons where oil accumulation in fruit is prolonged and climatic conditions are optimal for P. macadamiae.