Rabbit haemorrhagic disease: are Australian rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) evolving resistance to infection with Czech CAPM 351 RHDV?

Rabbit haemorrhagic disease is a major tool for the management of introduced, wild rabbits in Australia. However, new evidence suggests that rabbits may be developing resistance to the disease. Rabbits sourced from wild populations in central and southeastern Australia, and domestic rabbits for comparison, were experimentally challenged with a low 60 ID50 oral dose of commercially available Czech CAPM 351 virus - the original strain released in Australia. Levels of resistance to infection were generally higher than for unselected domestic rabbits and also differed (0-73% infection rates) between wild populations. Resistance was lower in populations from cooler, wetter regions and also low in arid regions with the highest resistance seen within zones of moderate rainfall. These findings suggest the external influences of non-pathogenic calicivirus in cooler, wetter areas and poor recruitment in arid populations may influence the development rate of resistance in Australia.

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Phylogenetic relationships of graminicolous downy mildews based on cox2 sequence data

Graminicolous downy mildews (GDM) are an understudied, yet economically important, group of plant pathogens, which are one of the major constraints to poaceous crops in the tropics and subtropics. Here we present a first molecular phylogeny based on cox2 sequences comprising all genera of the GDM currently accepted, with both lasting (Graminivora, Poakatesthia, and Viennotia) and evanescent (Peronosclerospora, Sclerophthora, and Sclerospora) sporangiophores. In addition, all other downy mildew genera currently accepted, as well as a representative sample of other oomycete taxa, have been included. It was shown that all genera of the GDM have had a long, independent evolutionary history, and that the delineation between Peronosclerospora and Sclerospora is correct. Sclerophthora was found to be a particularly divergent taxon nested within a paraphyletic Phytophthora, but without support. The results confirm that the placement of Peronosclerospora and Sclerospora in the Saprolegniomycetidae is incorrect. Sclerophthora is not closely related to Pachymetra of the family Verrucalvaceae, and also does not belong to the Saprolegniomycetidae, but shows close affinities to the Peronosporaceae. In addition, all GDM are interspersed throughout the Peronosporaceae s lat., suggesting that a separate family for the Sclerosporaceae might not be justified.

Managing mycotoxins in maize: Case studies

Mycotoxin contamination of Australian maize is neither common nor extensive, but has the capacity to seriously disrupt marketing. Low to moderate levels of aflatoxins and fumonisins can be widespread in some seasons, but zearalenone, nivalenol and deoxynivalenol are usually confined to small growing localities. Possible approaches to such situations were tested by an analysis of several case studies. It is concluded that communication and coordination across the industry, prediction and prevention of contamination, rapid detection and assessment of contamination, effective use of contaminated maize and breeding for resistance comprise a useful set of strategies for managing mycotoxins in maize.

What drives plant biodiversity in the clay floodplain grasslands of NSW?

An assessment of the relative influences of management and environment on the composition of floodplain grasslands of north-western New South Wales was made using a regional vegetation survey sampling a range of land tenures (e. g. private property, travelling stock routes and nature reserves). A total of 364 taxa belonging to 55 different plant families was recorded. Partitioning of variance with redundancy analysis determined that environmental variables accounted for a greater proportion (61.3%) of the explained variance in species composition than disturbance-related variables (37.6%). Soil type (and fertility), sampling time and rainfall had a strong influence on species composition and there were also east-west variations in composition across the region. Of the disturbance-related variables, cultivation, stocking rate and flooding frequency were all influential. Total, native, forb, shrub and subshrub richness were positively correlated with increasing time since cultivation. Flood frequency was positively correlated with graminoid species richness and was negatively correlated with total and forb species richness. Site species richness was also influenced by environmental variables (e. g. soil type and rainfall). Despite the resilience of these grasslands, some forms of severe disturbance (e. g. several years of cultivation) can result in removal of some dominant perennial grasses (e. g. Astrebla spp.) and an increase in disturbance specialists. A simple heuristic transitional model is proposed that has conceptual thresholds for plant biodiversity status. This knowledge representation may be used to assist in the management of these grasslands by defining four broad levels of community richness and the drivers that change this status.

Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

Intrapopulation variation in an Australian population of the North American thrips, Bagnalliella yuccae (Thysanoptera: Phlaeothripidae), a new record from Australia.

The genus Bagnalliella Karny is an endemic North American genus of Phlaeothripidae with 7 species associated with the New World plant genus Yucca; 2 Old World species currently placed in the genus are probably not congeneric. The number of sensoria on antennal segments III and IV has been used to distinguish the Bagnalliella species on Yucca, but an invasive population of Bagnalliella yuccae (Hinds) is reported here from Australia, at Brisbane, Queensland, in which the number of sensoria varied between individuals and even between left and right antennae of single individuals. These observations cast considerable doubt on the validity of some of the North American species of Bagnalliella. The Australian population was damaging young leaves of Yucca elephantipes, and indicates the ease with which thrips can be distributed by the horticultural trade.