Predicting dispersal and recruitment of Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) in Australian tropical rainforests

Miconia calvescens (Melastomataceae) is a serious invader in the tropical Pacific, including the Hawaiian and Tahitian Islands, and currently poses a major threat to native biodiversity in the Wet Tropics of Australia. The species is fleshy-fruited, small-seeded and shade tolerant, and thus has the potential to be dispersed widely and recruit in relatively intact rainforest habitats, displacing native species. Understanding and predicting the rate of spread is critical for the design and implementation of effective management actions. We used an individual-based model incorporating a dispersal function derived from dispersal curves for similar berry-fruited native species, and life-history parameters of fecundity and mortality to predict the spatial structure of a Miconia population after a 30 year time period. We compared the modelled population spatial structure to that of an actual infestation in the rainforests of north Queensland. Our goal was to assess how well the model predicts actual dispersion and to identify potential barriers and conduits to seed movement and seedling establishment. The model overpredicts overall population size and the spatial extent of the actual infestation, predicting individuals to occur at a maximum 1,750 m from the source compared with the maximum distance of any detected individual in the actual infestation of 1,191 m. We identify several characteristic features of managed invasive populations that make comparisons between modelled outcomes and actual infestations difficult. Our results suggest that the model’s ability to predict both spatial structure and spread of the population will be improved by incorporating a spatially explicit element, with dispersal and recruitment probabilities that reflect the relative suitability of different parts of the landscape for these processes.

The use of genetic correlations to evaluate associations between SNP markers and quantitative traits

Open-pollinated progeny of Corymbia citriodora established in replicated field trials were assessed for stem diameter, wood density, and pulp yield prior to genotyping single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and testing the significance of associations between markers and assessment traits. Multiple individuals within each family were genotyped and phenotyped, which facilitated a comparison of standard association testing methods and an alternative method developed to relate markers to additive genetic effects. Narrow-sense heritability estimates indicated there was significant additive genetic variance within this population for assessment traits ( h ˆ 2 =0.28to0.44 ) and genetic correlations between the three traits were negligible to moderate (r G = 0.08 to 0.50). The significance of association tests (p values) were compared for four different analyses based on two different approaches: (1) two software packages were used to fit standard univariate mixed models that include SNP-fixed effects, (2) bivariate and multivariate mixed models including each SNP as an additional selection trait were used. Within either the univariate or multivariate approach, correlations between the tests of significance approached +1; however, correspondence between the two approaches was less strong, although between-approach correlations remained significantly positive. Similar SNP markers would be selected using multivariate analyses and standard marker-trait association methods, where the former facilitates integration into the existing genetic analysis systems of applied breeding programs and may be used with either single markers or indices of markers created with genomic selection processes.