Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of plant pest invasions with human-mediated dispersal

Hierarchical Bayesian models can assimilate surveillance and ecological information to estimate both invasion extent and model parameters for invading plant pests spread by people. A reliability analysis framework that can accommodate multiple dispersal modes is developed to estimate human-mediated dispersal parameters for an invasive species. Uncertainty in the observation process is modelled by accounting for local natural spread and population growth within spatial units. Broad scale incursion dynamics are based on a mechanistic gravity model with a Weibull distribution modification to incorporate a local pest build-up phase. The model uses Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to infer the probability of colonisation times for discrete spatial units and to estimate connectivity parameters between these units. The hierarchical Bayesian model with observational and ecological components is applied to a surveillance dataset for a spiralling whitefly (Aleurodicus dispersus) invasion in Queensland, Australia. The model structure provides a useful application that draws on surveillance data and ecological knowledge that can be used to manage the risk of pest movement.

Isohydric and anisohydric characterisation of vegetable crops. The classification of vegetables by their physiological responses to water stress

Research on the physiological response of crop plants to drying soils and subsequent water stress has grouped plant behaviours as isohydric and anisohydric. Drying soil conditions, and hence declining soil and root water potentials, cause chemical signals—the most studied being abscisic acid (ABA)—and hydraulic signals to be transmitted to the leaf via xylem pathways. Researchers have attempted to allocate crops as isohydric or anisohydric. However, different cultivars within crops, and even the same cultivars grown in different environments/climates, can exhibit both response types. Nevertheless, understanding which behaviours predominate in which crops and circumstances may be beneficial. This paper describes different physiological water stress responses, attempts to classify vegetable crops according to reported water stress responses, and also discusses implications for irrigation decision-making.

Plant based monitoring for irrigation scheduling in vegetable horticulture: A case study in South Australian onions

Direct measurement of plant water status for irrigation scheduling may be more sensitive, and promote better horticultural crop quality, than indirect methods such as soil moisture monitoring. In our research project, we sought to identify instances where direct methods of plant-water status previously used in horticultural crops in Australia. We present the outcomes, suitability or obstacles for adoption by horticultural producers.

The DOOR manual for plant nurseries

In the nursery industry, generic research conducted by government institutions is often not specific enough to be highly valued and adopted by the individual operator. Operators need practical solutions to their particular problems. Such problems almost invariably involve sets of conditions common to few other enterprises. This uniqueness reflects the almost infinite variation of options available in terms of species grown, media used, fertiliser, amendments and chemicals applied and the way water is supplied. The DOOR (Do Our Own Research) method advocates a relatively unexplored way of generating new, statistically sound research information in the nursery industry. The manual aims to enhance nursery operators' understanding and skills development in the following areas: critially evaluating opportunities and problems in the nursery environment, gathering relevant information, deriving and prioritising potential solutions to problems and opportunities, becoming familiar with the scientific method employed in testing potential solutions, carrying out statistically sound aand rigorous research, and developing recommendations that flow from the research information generated. The DOOR approach has application in a number of other industries and may provide important support at a time of declining research, development and extension investment by the public sector.

Simulation of parthenium weed canopy under changing climate using L-systems

Parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.) is an erect, branched, annual plant of the family Asteraceae. It is native to the tropical Americas, while now widely distributed throughout Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Australasia. Due to its allelopathic and toxic characteristics, parthenium weed has been considered to be a weed of global significance. These effects occur across agriculture (crops and pastures), within natural ecosystems, and has impacts upon health (human and animals). Although integrated weed management (IWM) for parthenium weed has had some success, due to its tolerance and good adaptability to temperature, precipitation, and CO2, this weed has been predicted to become more vigorous under a changing climate resulting in an altered canopy architecture. From the viewpoint of IWM, the altered canopy architecture may be associated with not only improved competitive ability and replacement but also may alter the effectiveness of biocontrol agents and other management strategies. This paper reports on a preliminary study on parthenium weed canopy architecture at three temperature regimes (day/night 22/15 °C, 27/20 °C, and 32/25 °C in thermal time 12/12 hours) and establishes a threedimensional (3D) canopy model using Lindenmayer-systems (L-systems). This experiment was conducted in a series of controlled environment rooms with parthenium weed plants being grown in a heavy clay soil. A sonic digitizer system was used to record the morphology, topology, and geometry of the plants for model construction. The main findings include the determination of the phyllochron which enables the prediction of parthenium weed growth under different temperature regimes and that increased temperature enhances growth and enlarges the plants canopy size and structure. The developed 3D canopy model provides a tool to simulate and predict the weed growth in response to temperature, and can be adjusted for studies of other climatic variables such as precipitation and CO2. Further studies are planned to investigate the effects of other climatic variables, and the predicted changes in the pathogenic biocontrol agent effectiveness.

Phosphonate applied as a pre-plant dip controls Phytophthora cinnamomi root and heart rot in susceptible pineapple hybrids.

The effectiveness of pre-plant dips of crowns in potassium phosphonate and phosphorous acid was investigated in a systematic manner to develop an effective strategy for the control of root and heart rot diseases caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi in the pineapple hybrids 'MD2' and '73-50' and cultivar Smooth Cayenne. Our results clearly indicate that a high volume spray at planting was much less effective when compared to a pre-plant dip. 'Smooth Cayenne' was found to be more resistant to heart rot than 'MD2' and '73-50', and 'Smooth Cayenne' to be more responsive to treatment with potassium phosphonate. Based on cumulative heart rot incidence over time 'MD2' was more susceptible to heart rot than '73-50' and was more responsive to an application of phosphorous acid. The highest levels of phosphonate in roots were reached one month after planting and levels declined during the next two months. Pre-plant dipping of crowns prior to planting is highly effective to control root and heart rot in the first few months but is not sufficient to maintain health of the mother plant root system up until plant crop harvest when weather conditions continue to favour infection.

Influence of plant traits on production costs and profitability of strawberry in southeast Queensland.

In Queensland the subtropical strawberry ( Fragaria * ananassa) breeding program aims to combine traits into novel genotypes that increase production efficiency. The contribution of individual plant traits to cost and income under subtropical Queensland conditions was investigated, with the overall goal of improving the profitability of the industry through the release of new strawberry cultivars. The study involved specifying the production and marketing system using three cultivars of strawberry that are currently widely grown annually in southeast Queensland, developing methods to assess the economic impact of changes to the system, and identifying plant traits that influence outcomes from the system. From May through September P (price; $ punnet -1), V (monthly mass; tonne of fruit on the market) and M (calendar month; i.e. May=5) were found to be related ( r2=0.92) by the function (SE) P=4.741(0.469)-0.001630(0.0005) V-0.226(0.102) M using data from 2006 to 2010 for the Brisbane central market. Both income and cost elements in the gross margin were subject to sensitivity analysis. 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' 'Groups' of 'Activities' were the major contributors to variable costs (each >20%) in the gross margin analysis. Within the 'Harvesting Group', the 'Picking Activity' contributed most (>80%) with the trait 'display of fruit' having the greatest (33%) influence on the cost of the 'Picking Activity'. Within the 'Handling/Packing Group', the 'Packing Activity' contributed 50% of costs with the traits 'fruit shape', 'fruit size variation' and 'resistance to bruising' having the greatest (12-62%) influence on the cost of the 'Packing Activity'. Non-plant items (e.g. carton purchases) made up the other 50% of the costs within the 'Handling/Packing Group'. When any of the individual traits in the 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' groups were changed by one unit (on a 1-9 scale) the gross margin changed by up to 1%. Increasing yield increased the gross margin to a maximum (15% above present) at 1320 g plant -1 (94% above present). A 10% redistribution of total yield from September to May increased the gross margin by 23%. Increasing fruit size increased gross margin: a 75% increase in fruit size (to ~30 g) produced a 22% increase in the gross margin. The modified gross margin analysis developed in this study allowed simultaneous estimation of the gross margin for the producer and gross value of the industry. These parameters sometimes move in opposite directions.

Multiple host use by a sap-sucking membracid: population consequences of nymphal development on primary and secondary host plant species

Aconophora compressa is a gregarious, sap-sucking insect that uses multiple host plant species. Nymphal host plant species (and variety) significantly affected nymphal survival, nymphal development rate and the subsequent size and fecundity of adults, with fiddlewood ( Citharexylum spinosum ) being significantly best in all respects. Nymphs that developed on a relatively poor host ( Duranta erecta var “geisha girl”) and which were moved to fiddlewood as adults laid significantly fewer eggs (mean ± SE = 836 ± 130) than those that developed solely on fiddlewood (1,329 ± 105). Adults on geisha girl, regardless of having been reared as nymphs on fiddlewood or geisha girl, laid significantly fewer eggs (342 ± 83 and 317 ± 74, respectively) than adults on fiddlewood. A simple model that incorporates host plant related survival, development rate and fecundity suggests that the population dynamics of A. compressa are governed mainly by fiddlewood, the primary host. The results have general implications for understanding the population dynamics of herbivores that use multiple host plant species, and also for the way in which weed biological control host testing methods should be conducted.

Binding of polyphenols to plant cell wall analogues - Part 1: Anthocyanins

Anthocyanins are located within the vacuole of plant cells, and are released following cell rupture during eating or processing at which time they first come into contact with the plant cell wall. The extent of anthocyanin-cell wall interaction was investigated by monitoring the rate of anthocyanin depletion in the presence of pure cellulose or cellulose-pectin composites as cell wall models. It was found that anthocyanins interact with both cellulose and pectin over a two-stage process with initially (mins-hours) 13 similar to 18% of anthocyanins binding to cellulose or cellulose/pectincomposites. With prolonged exposure (days-weeks), a gradual increase in anthocyanin binding occurs, possibly due to anthocyanins stacking on top of a base layer. Binding of acylated and non-acylated anthocyanins followed a similar pattern with slightly more (5-10%) binding of the acylated forms. Composites with the highest pectin content had the greatest anthocyanin binding suggesting the existence of both ionic interactions (with pectin) and hydrophobic interactions (with cellulose) of anthocyanin with plant cell walls.

Corymbia leaf oils, latitude, hybrids and herbivory: a test using common-garden field trials

Foliar oils, particularly monoterpenes, can influence the susceptibility of plants to herbivory. In plants, including eucalypts, monoterpenes are often associated with plant defence. A recent analysis revealed an increase in foliar oil content with increasing latitudinal endemism, and we tested this pattern using three eucalypt taxa comprising a latitudinal replacement cline. We also examined the relative concentrations of two monoterpenes (alpha-pinene and 1,8-cineole), for which meta-analyses also showed latitudinal variation, using hybrids of these three taxa with Corymbia torelliana. These, and pure C. torelliana, were then assessed in common-garden field plots for the abundance and distribution of herbivory by four distinct herbivore taxa. Differing feeding strategies among these herbivores allowed us to test hypotheses regarding heritability of susceptibility and relationships to alpha-pinene and 1,8-cineole. We found no support for an increase in foliar oil content with increasing latitude, nor did our analysis support predictions for consistent variation in alpha-pinene and 1,8-cineole contents with latitude. However, herbivore species showed differential responses to different taxa and monoterpene contents. For example, eriophyid mites, the most monophagous of our censused herbivores, avoided the pure species, but fed on hybrid taxa, supporting hypotheses on hybrid susceptibility. The most polyphagous herbivore (leaf blister sawfly Phylacteophaga froggatti) showed no evidence of response to plant secondary metabolites, while the distribution and abundance patterns of Paropsis atomaria showed some relationship to monoterpene yields.

Beyond fecundity control: which weeds are most containable?

1. Eradication is often the preferred strategy in the management of new weed invasions, but recent research has shown that the circumstances under which eradication can be achieved are highly constrained. Containment is a component of an eradication strategy and also a management objective in its own right. Just as for eradication, containment of a weed invasion should be attempted only if it is considered feasible. However, very little guidance exists for the assessment of containment feasibility for weeds. 2. Numerous factors have been proposed as influencing feasibility of containment, but those that relate to the potential for management of dispersal pathways and timely detection of new foci of infestation appear to be critical. Theory suggests that the rate of spread is largely driven by long-distance dispersal (LDD). However, LDD is generally unpredictable and often occurs for species that do not appear to be adapted for it. Furthermore, many (if not most) LDD events fail to give rise to new infestations. 3. As the probability of colonisation is related to the numbers of propagules immigrating ('propagule pressure') at a point in the landscape, dispersal pathways that move relatively large numbers of propagules simultaneously and/or repeatedly should most enhance weed spread. It is these pathways whose potential for management has the greatest bearing upon containment feasibility. A key impediment to containment is undetected spread; this need not occur through LDD and is more likely to occur through dispersal to lesser distances. 4. Synthesis and applications. Feasibility of containment should be viewed in terms of the effort required to reduce weed spread rate, as well as the effectiveness of relevant management actions. Where dispersal vectors are not readily manageable and the probability of detection via structured and/or unstructured surveillance is low, a much greater reliance upon fecundity control will be needed to contain a weed. A combination of empirical and theoretical approaches should be used to develop and refine estimates of containment feasibility. Such estimates will aid decision-making with regard to whether to attempt to reduce weed spread and assist in prioritisation of different weeds for containment.

Host plant records for fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Southeast Asia

Plant records, derived largely from field studies in Thailand and Malaysia from 1986-94, are provided for 131 species of Southeast Asian Tephritidae.

Spatial and diurnal pattern of protein foraging by Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) on a host plant

Background: Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, is the major pest fruit fly in Australia. Protein bait sprays, where insecticides are mixed with spot applications of a protein based food lure, are one of the sustainable pre-harvest fruit fly management strategies used in Australia. Although protein bait sprays do manage fruit fly infestation in the field, there is little science underpinning this technique and so improving its efficacy is difficult. Lacking information includes where and when to apply protein bait in order to best target foraging B. tryoni. As part of new work in this area, we investigated the effect of height of protein on tree and host plant fruiting status on the spatial and temporal protein foraging patterns of B. tryoni. MEthod: The work was conducted in the field using nectarine and guava plants and wild B. tryoni at Redland Bay, Queensland, Australia. Spot sprays of protein bait were applied to the foliage of randomly selected fruiting and non-fruiting trees. Each tree received protein bait spot sprays on the lower and higher foliage at 0530hrs. The number, sex and species of flies that fed on each protein spot were recorded hourly from 0600hrs through to 1800hrs.Results: For nectarines, there was a significant difference in the number of B. tryoni feeding on protein bait placed at different locations within the tree (ANOVA, F = 8.898, p = 0.001). More flies fed on protein placed on higher foliage relative to lower, irrespective of the fruiting status of the nectarine trees. A significant difference was also observed in the diurnal protein feeding pattern of B. tryoni (ANOVA, F = 2.164, p = 0.024), with more flies feeding at 1600hrs. Results for guava are still being collected and will be presented at the meeting.Conclusions: We conclude that B. tryoni effectively forages for protein at heights higher than 1.3m from ground, indicating greater efficacy of protein bait when applied at foliage higher in the canopy. Bactrocera tryoni actively forages for protein throughout the day, with a highest feeding peak at 1600hrs. The lack of significant difference in the spatial protein foraging pattern between fruiting and non-fruiting nectarine trees may be a real result, or may have resulted from the fruiting tree being very close (within 1 – 2 metres) of the non-fruiting tree. This hypothesis is being tested in the guava trial.

Complementing biological control with plant suppression: Implications for improved management of parthenium weed (Parthenium hysterophorus L.)

Parthenium hysterophorus L. is a weed of global significance that has become a major weed in Australia and many other parts of the world. A combined approach for the management of parthenium weed using biological control and plant suppression, was tested under field conditions over a two-year period in southern central Queensland. The six suppressive plant species, selected for their demonstrably suppressive ability in earlier glasshouse studies, worked synergistically with the biological control agents (Epiblema strenuana Walker, Zygogramma bicolorata Pallister, Listronotus setosipennis Hustache and Puccinia abrupta var. partheniicola) present in the field to reduce the growth (above ground biomass) of parthenium weed, by between 60–86% and 47–91%, in Years 1 and 2, respectively. The biomass of the suppressive plants was between 6% and 23% greater when biological control agents were present than when the biological control agents had been excluded. This shows that parthenium weed can be more effectively managed by combining the current biological control management strategy with selected sown suppressive plant species, both in Australia and elsewhere.