Learning from the past to predict the future: an historical analysis of grass invasions in northern Australia

An important focus of biosecurity is anticipating future risks, but time lags between introduction, naturalisation, and (ultimately) impact mean that future risks can be strongly influenced by history. We conduct a comprehensive historical analysis of tropical grasses (n = 155) that have naturalised in Australia since European settlement (1788) to determine what factors shaped historical patterns of naturalisation and future risks, including for the 21 species that cause serious negative impacts. Most naturalised species were from the Old World (78 %), were introduced for use in pasture (64.5 %), were first recorded prior to 1940 (84.5 %) and naturalised before 1980 (90.3 %). Patterns for high-impact species were similar, with all being first recorded in Australia by 1940, and only seven naturalised since then-five intentionally introduced as pasture species. Counter to expectations, we found no evidence for increased naturalisation with increasing trade, including for species introduced unintentionally for which the link was expected to be strongest. New pathways have not emerged since the 1930s despite substantial shifts in trading patterns. Furthermore, introduction and naturalisation rates are now at or approaching historically low levels. Three reasons were identified: (1) the often long lag phase between introduction and reported naturalisation means naturalisation rates reflect historical trends in introduction rates; (2) important introduction pathways are not directly related to trade volume and globalisation; and (3) that species pools may become depleted. The last of these appears to be the case for the most important pathway for tropical grasses, i.e. the intentional introduction of useful pasture species. Assuming that new pathways don't arise that might result in increased naturalisation rates, and that current at-border biosecurity practices remain in place, we conclude that most future high-impact tropical grass species are already present in Australia. Our results highlight the need to continually test underlying assumptions regarding future naturalisation rates of high-impact invasive species, as conclusions have important implications for how best to manage future biosecurity risks.

Integrating different approaches in the definition of biological stocks: A northern Australian multi-jurisdictional fisheries example using grey mackerel, Scomberomorus semifasciatus

A holistic approach to stock structure studies utilises multiple different techniques on the same individuals sampled from selected populations and combines results across spatial and temporal scales to produce a weight of evidence conclusion. It is the most powerful and reliable source of information to use in formulating resource management and monitoring plans. Few examples of the use of a holistic approach in stock structure studies exist, although more recently this is changing. Using such an approach makes integration of results from each technique challenging. An integrated stock definition (ISD) approach for holistic stock structure studies was developed in this study to aid in the appropriate interpretation of stock structure results to guide the determination of fishery management units. The ISD approach is applied herein to a study of the northern Australian endemic grey mackerel, Scomberomorus semifasciatus (Scombridae). Analyses of genetic (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites), parasite, otolith stable isotope, and growth data are synthesised to determine the stock structure of S. semifasciatus across northern Australia. Integration of the results from all techniques identified at least six S. semifasciatus stocks for management purposes. Further, the use of the ISD approach provided a simple basis for integrating multiple techniques and for their interpretation. The use of this holistic approach was a powerful tool in providing greater certainty about the appropriate management units for S. semifasciatus. Future stock structure studies investigating spatial management questions in the fisheries context should adopt a holistic approach and apply the ISD approach for a more accurate definition of biological stocks to improve fisheries management.

Seed bank longevity and age to reproductive maturity of Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T. Aiton in the dry tropics of northern Queensland

Understanding the reproductive biology of Calotropis procera (Aiton) W.T. Aiton, an invasive weed of northern Australia, is critical for development of effective management strategies. Two experiments are reported on. In Experiment 1 seed longevity of C. procera seeds, exposed to different soil type (clay and river loam), pasture cover (present and absent) and burial depth (0, 2.5, 10 and 20 cm) treatments were examined. In Experiment 2 time to reach reproductive maturity was studied. The latter experiment included its sister species, C. gigantea (L.) W.T. Aiton, for comparison and two separate seed lots were tested in 2009 and 2012 to determine if exposure to different environmental conditions would influence persistence. Both seed lots demonstrated a rapid decline in viability over the first 3 months and declined to zero between 15 and 24 months after burial. In Experiment 1, longevity appeared to be most influenced by rainfall patterns and associated soil moisture, burial depth and soil type, but not the level of pasture cover. Experiment 2 showed that both C. procera and C. gigantea plants could flower once they had reached an average height of 85 cm. However, they differed significantly in terms of basal diameter at first flowering with C. gigantea significantly smaller (31 mm) than C. procera (45 mm). On average, C. gigantea flowered earlier (125 days vs 190 days) and set seed earlier (359 days vs 412 days) than C. procera. These results suggest that, under similar conditions to those that prevailed in the present studies, land managers could potentially achieve effective control of patches of C. procera in 2 years if they are able to kill all original plants and treat seedling regrowth frequently enough to prevent it reaching reproductive maturity. This suggested control strategy is based on the proviso that replenishment of the seed bank is not occurring from external sources (e.g. wind and water dispersal).

Boosting the productivity and profitability of northern Australian beef enterprises: Exploring innovation options using simulation modelling and systems analysis

The financial health of beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia has declined markedly over the last decade due to an escalation in production and marketing costs and a real decline in beef prices. Historically, gains in animal productivity have offset the effect of declining terms of trade on farm incomes. This raises the question of whether future productivity improvements can remain a key path for lifting enterprise profitability sufficient to ensure that the industry remains economically viable over the longer term. The key objective of this study was to assess the production and financial implications for north Australian beef enterprises of a range of technology interventions (development scenarios), including genetic gain in cattle, nutrient supplementation, and alteration of the feed base through introduced pastures and forage crops, across a variety of natural environments. To achieve this objective a beef systems model was developed that is capable of simulating livestock production at the enterprise level, including reproduction, growth and mortality, based on energy and protein supply from natural C4 pastures that are subject to high inter-annual climate variability. Comparisons between simulation outputs and enterprise performance data in three case study regions suggested that the simulation model (the Northern Australia Beef Systems Analyser) can adequately represent the performance beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia. Testing of a range of development scenarios suggested that the application of individual technologies can substantially lift productivity and profitability, especially where the entire feedbase was altered through legume augmentation. The simultaneous implementation of multiple technologies that provide benefits to different aspects of animal productivity resulted in the greatest increases in cattle productivity and enterprise profitability, with projected weaning rates increasing by 25%, liveweight gain by 40% and net profit by 150% above current baseline levels, although gains of this magnitude might not necessarily be realised in practice. While there were slight increases in total methane output from these development scenarios, the methane emissions per kg of beef produced were reduced by 20% in scenarios with higher productivity gain. Combinations of technologies or innovative practices applied in a systematic and integrated fashion thus offer scope for providing the productivity and profitability gains necessary to maintain viable beef enterprises in northern Australia into the future.

Indigofera linnaei-a problem legume across northern pastures

Indigofera linnaei (or Birdsville Indigo) is a native legume with widespread abundance in pastures across northern Australian, and occurs in all northern regions of Australia from the tropical Kimberleys and arid central Australia to subhumid coastal Queensland (Figure 1). I. linnaei in central Australia has been linked to canine fatalities due to the toxin indospicine. Indospicine, an analog of arginine, is an unusual non-protein amino acid found only in a number of Indigofera species including I. linnaei. Dogs are particularly sensitive to the heptatoxicity of indospicine, and while they do not themselves consume the plant, dogs have been poisoned indirectly through the consumption of indospicine-contaminated meat from horses and camels grazing in regions where I. linnaei is common (Hegarty and Pound 1988, FitzGerald et al 2011). I. linnaei is observed to occur in various forms from strongly prostrate in south-east Queensland to an erect shrub-like form growing to more than 50cm in height in some northern regions. It mostly occurs as a minor proportion of native pasture but denser stands develop under certain circumstances. The indospicine content of I. linnaei has not previously been reported outside of central Australia, and in this study we investigate the indospicine content of plant samples collected across various regions, including both prostrate and upright forms. All samples were collected in March-July, dried, milled and analysed by UPLC-MS/MS in an adaption of our method (Tan et al 2014). Indospicine was determined in all I. linnaei plant samples regardless of region or growth form (Table 1). Measured levels were in the range 159.5 to 658.8 mg/kg DM and indicate that this plant may pose a similar problem in all areas dependent on local seasonal abundance.

Strategic tillage in no-till farming systems in Australia’s northern grains-growing regions: II. Implications for agronomy, soil and environment

In semi-arid sub-tropical areas, a number of studies concerning no-till (NT) farming systems have demonstrated advantages in economic, environmental and soil quality aspects over conventional tillage (CT). However, adoption of continuous NT has contributed to the build-up of herbicide resistant weed populations, increased incidence of soil- and stubble-borne diseases, and stratification of nutrients and organic carbon near the soil surface. Some farmers often resort to an occasional strategic tillage (ST) to manage these problems of NT systems. However, farmers who practice strict NT systems are concerned that even one-time tillage may undo positive soil condition benefits of NT farming systems. We reviewed the pros and cons of the use of occasional ST in NT farming systems. Impacts of occasional ST on agronomy, soil and environment are site-specific and depend on many interacting soil, climatic and management conditions. Most studies conducted in North America and Europe suggest that introducing occasional ST in continuous NT farming systems could improve productivity and profitability in the short term; however in the long-term, the impact is negligible or may be negative. The short term impacts immediately following occasional ST on soil and environment include reduced protective cover, soil loss by erosion, increased runoff, loss of C and water, and reduced microbial activity with little or no detrimental impact in the long-term. A potential negative effect immediately following ST would be reduced plant available water which may result in unreliability of crop sowing in variable seasons. The occurrence of rainfall between the ST and sowing or immediately after the sowing is necessary to replenish soil water lost from the seed zone. Timing of ST is likely to be critical and must be balanced with optimising soil water prior to seeding. The impact of occasional ST varies with the tillage implement used; for example, inversion tillage using mouldboard tillage results in greater impacts as compared to chisel or disc. Opportunities for future research on occasional ST with the most commonly used implements such as tine and/or disc in Australia’s northern grains-growing region are presented in the context of agronomy, soil and the environment.

Strategic tillage in no-till farming systems in Australia’s northern grains-growing regions: I. Drivers and implementation

Development of no-tillage (NT) farming has revolutionized agricultural systems by allowing growers to manage greater areas of land with reduced energy, labour and machinery inputs to control erosion, improve soil health and reduce greenhouse gas emission. However, NT farming systems have resulted in a build-up of herbicide-resistant weeds, an increased incidence of soil- and stubble-borne diseases and enrichment of nutrients and carbon near the soil surface. Consequently, there is an increased interest in the use of an occasional tillage (termed strategic tillage, ST) to address such emerging constraints in otherwise-NT farming systems. Decisions around ST uses will depend upon the specific issues present on the individual field or farm, and profitability and effectiveness of available options for management. This paper explores some of the issues with the implementation of ST in NT farming systems. The impact of contrasting soil properties, the timing of the tillage and the prevailing climate exert a strong influence on the success of ST. Decisions around timing of tillage are very complex and depend on the interactions between soil water content and the purpose for which the ST is intended. The soil needs to be at the right water content before executing any tillage, while the objective of the ST will influence the frequency and type of tillage implement used. The use of ST in long-term NT systems will depend on factors associated with system costs and profitability, soil health and environmental impacts. For many farmers maintaining farm profitability is a priority, so economic considerations are likely to be a primary factor dictating adoption. However, impacts on soil health and environment, especially the risk of erosion and the loss of soil carbon, will also influence a grower’s choice to adopt ST, as will the impact on soil moisture reserves in rainfed cropping systems.

Gene flow from Corymbia hybrids in northern New South Wales

Some of the most productive taxa for forestry are interspecific F1 hybrids grown as exotics in the tropics and subtropics. Attributes of resilience, adaptability and vigour which engender the hybrids for wood production, may also exacerbate the risk they present from gene flow to native species gene pools or to local ecologies as weeds. To determine the biological and genetic factors that influence the extent of hybridisation, we examine the distribution and genealogy of wildlings surrounding plantings of locally-exotic Corymbia torelliana (Section Cadageria) near native C. henryi (Section Maculatae) in northern New South Wales. Our study showed pre-mating and pre- and post-zygotic barriers were incomplete, with in situ generation and natural establishment of both F1 hybrids (n = 3) and advanced generation hybrids under the disturbed conditions bordering native forest. As hybrids were located on alluvial flats exposed to frost, they also likely have an extended ecological range relative to native C. henryi. Despite the likely generation of large viable seed crops on F1 trees at the site over many years, establishment success and survival of advanced generation hybrids may be low, as only 5 immature and no mature advanced generation hybrids were identified. Propagation and genetic analysis of a seed crop from one F1 wildling showed early survival and vigour of seedlings in cultivation was high, and that at least for some F1 in some seasons, backcrossing to the recurrent native C. henryi parent is favoured (60%), whereas selfing (10%) and crossing with other F1 (30%) was less frequent. Transport of seed by stingless bees probably accounted for long distance dispersal from C. torelliana, but this mechanism does not appear to supplement gravity-dispersal of seed from the F1. Coupled with other evidence from studies of bee behaviour, controlled pollination in Corymbia sp., and long-term fitness in second generation eucalypt hybrids, we anticipate gene flow via pollen rather than seed will be the greater challenge for managing the risk of introgression of C. torelliana ancestry into native species from the planted F1 hybrid. If large sources of F1 pollen become available to compete with native pollen, gene flow will probably be frequent and hybrids may establish in disturbed conditions and in habitats beyond the ecological range of their native parent. Further study is needed to determine the degree to which outbreeding depression and poor survival inhibits on-going gene flow.

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages.

New yellow head virus genotype (YHV7) in giant tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon indigenous to northern Australia

ABSTRACT: In 2012, giant tiger shrimp Penaeus monodon originally sourced from Joseph Bonaparte Gulf in northern Australia were examined in an attempt to identify the cause of elevated mortalities among broodstock at a Queensland hatchery. Nucleic acid extracted from ethanol-fixed gills of 3 individual shrimp tested positive using the OIE YHV Protocol 2 RT-PCR designed to differentiate yellow head virus (YHV1) from gill-associated virus (GAV, synonymous with YHV2) and the OIE YHV Protocol 3 RT-nested PCR designed for consensus detection of YHV genotypes. Sequence analysis of the 794 bp (Protocol 2) and 359 bp (Protocol 3) amplicons from 2 distinct regions of ORF1b showed that the yellow-head-complex virus detected was novel when compared with Genotypes 1 to 6. Nucleotide identity on the Protocol 2 and Protocol 3 ORF1b sequences was highest with the highly pathogenic YHV1 genotype (81 and 87%, respectively) that emerged in P. monodon in Thailand and lower with GAV (78 and 82%, respectively) that is enzootic to P. monodon inhabiting eastern Australia. Comparison of a longer (725 bp) ORF1b sequence, spanning the Protocol 3 region and amplified using a modified YH30/31 RT-nPCR, provided further phylogenetic evidence for the virus being distinct from the 6 described YHV genotypes. The virus represents a unique seventh YHV genotype (YHV7). Despite the mortalities observed, the role of YHV7 remains unknown.

Maize yield determination in the Northern Region: Hybrid by environment by management interactions

In Maize, as with most cereals, grain yield is mostly determined by the total grain number per unit area, which is highly related to the rate of crop growth during the critical period around silking. Management practices such as plant density or nitrogen fertilization can affect the growth of the crop during this period, and consequently the final grain yield. Across the Northern Region maize is grown under a large range of plant populations under high year-to-year rainfall variability. Clear guidelines on how to match hybrids and management across environments and expected seasonal condition, would allow growers to increase yields and profits while managing risks. The objective of this research was to screen the response of commercial maize hybrids differing in maturity and prolificity (i.e. multi or single cobbing) types for their efficiency in the allocation of biomass into grain.

Climate savvy grazing (Developing improved grazing and related practices to assist beef production enterprises across northern Australia to adapt to a changing and more variable climate)

There is uncertainty over the potential changes to rainfall across northern Australia under climate change. Since rainfall is a key driver of pasture growth, cattle numbers and the resulting animal productivity and beef business profitability, the ability to anticipate possible management strategies within such uncertainty is crucial. The Climate Savvy Grazing project used existing research, expert knowledge and computer modelling to explore the best-bet management strategies within best, median and worse-case future climate scenarios. All three scenarios indicated changes to the environment and resources upon which the grazing industry of northern Australia depends. Well-adapted management strategies under a changing climate are very similar to best practice within current climatic conditions. Maintaining good land condition builds resource resilience, maximises opportunities under higher rainfall years and reduces the risk of degradation during drought and failed wet seasons. Matching stocking rate to the safe long-term carrying capacity of the land is essential; reducing stock numbers in response to poor seasons and conservatively increasing stock numbers in response to better seasons generally improves profitability and maintains land in good condition. Spelling over the summer growing season will improve land condition under a changing climate as it does under current conditions. Six regions were included within the project. Of these, the Victoria River District in the Northern Territory, Gulf country of Queensland and the Kimberley region of Western Australia had projections of similar or higher than current rainfall and the potential for carrying capacity to increase. The Alice Springs, Maranoa-Balonne and Fitzroy regions had projections of generally drying conditions and the greatest risk of reduced pasture growth and carrying capacity. Encouraging producers to consider and act on the risks, opportunities and management options inherent in climate change was a key goal of the project. More than 60,000 beef producers, advisors and stakeholders are now more aware of the management strategies which build resource resilience, and that resilience helps buffer against the effects of variable and changing climatic conditions. Over 700 producers have stated they have improved confidence, skills and knowledge to attempt new practices to build resilience. During the course of the project, more than 165 beef producers reported they have implemented changes to build resource and business resilience.

Description of vectors of arboviruses of livestock in Northern Australia

The project aimed to detect exotic C"11coides species recently established in northern Australia and to map the distribution of Cullcoid"' bi'e\, nth'sis and C. 1.1-, oddiill Western Australia and NT. Between February 1990 and June 1992, collections were Inade throughout Cape York Peninsula, Nortlierii Territory and northern and central Western Australia. Six previously unreported species were collected. These species an'e considered unlikely to be recent jininigrants and seein to pose little threat as potential arboviiT. Is vectors. C. woddi was restricted to coastal 1101tlierii Qld, the northernmost areas of NT and the northern Kiinberley region in WA. 111 NT C. bi'evitai'sis was collected as far soutli as Katlierine. In WA it was collected throughout the Kiinberley and in the Pilbara region ill all area bounded by Nullagine, KanTatha and 300km nortli of Carnalvon. C. bi'evilcii'sis reinains tlie only Guncoide. s species of known 11npoitance as a vector of livestock an'boviruses to extend into Inajor sheep-grazing areas. Generally, CUIicoides distributions in northern Australia between 1990 and 1992 were coinparable but not identical to those defined ill surveys conducted ill tlie 1970's and 1980's. Species distributions were not static and will continue to fluctuate witli variation ill rainfall. . .

"Description of blue tongue and other arboviruses in Northern Australia"

A serological survey of cattle from throughout Queensland and sheep from cattle/sheep interface areas was conducted to determine the distribution and prevalence of antibodies to Bluetongue virus serotypes. This information allowed preliminary designation of arbovirusfree zones and identification of livestock populations at greatest risk to introduction of exotic Bluetongue viruses. Throughout the state antibodies were detected to only serotypes I and 21. In cattle prevalence decreased with increasing distance from the coast ringing from 73% in the far north to less than I% in the southwest. In sheep, prevalence of bluetongue antibodies in the major cattle/sheep interface areas in the north-west and central Queensland ranged from O% to 5%. A system of strategically placed sentinel herds of 10 young serologically negative cattle was established across northern Australia to monitor the distribution and seasonality of bluetongue viruses. Initially 23 herds were located in Queensland, 4 in Northern Territory and 2 in Western Australia but by the completion of the project the number of herds in Queensland had been reduced to 12. No bluetongue virus activity was detected in Western Australia or Northern Territory herds throughout the project although testing of one herd in Northern Territory with a history of bluetongue activity was not done after June 1991. In Queensland, activity to bluetongue serotypes I and 21 was detected in all years of the project. Transmissions occurred predominantly in the period April to September and were more widespread in wetter years' The pathogenic bluetongue setotypes previously isolated from the Northern Territory have not spread to adjoining States.