Learning from the past to predict the future: an historical analysis of grass invasions in northern Australia

An important focus of biosecurity is anticipating future risks, but time lags between introduction, naturalisation, and (ultimately) impact mean that future risks can be strongly influenced by history. We conduct a comprehensive historical analysis of tropical grasses (n = 155) that have naturalised in Australia since European settlement (1788) to determine what factors shaped historical patterns of naturalisation and future risks, including for the 21 species that cause serious negative impacts. Most naturalised species were from the Old World (78 %), were introduced for use in pasture (64.5 %), were first recorded prior to 1940 (84.5 %) and naturalised before 1980 (90.3 %). Patterns for high-impact species were similar, with all being first recorded in Australia by 1940, and only seven naturalised since then-five intentionally introduced as pasture species. Counter to expectations, we found no evidence for increased naturalisation with increasing trade, including for species introduced unintentionally for which the link was expected to be strongest. New pathways have not emerged since the 1930s despite substantial shifts in trading patterns. Furthermore, introduction and naturalisation rates are now at or approaching historically low levels. Three reasons were identified: (1) the often long lag phase between introduction and reported naturalisation means naturalisation rates reflect historical trends in introduction rates; (2) important introduction pathways are not directly related to trade volume and globalisation; and (3) that species pools may become depleted. The last of these appears to be the case for the most important pathway for tropical grasses, i.e. the intentional introduction of useful pasture species. Assuming that new pathways don't arise that might result in increased naturalisation rates, and that current at-border biosecurity practices remain in place, we conclude that most future high-impact tropical grass species are already present in Australia. Our results highlight the need to continually test underlying assumptions regarding future naturalisation rates of high-impact invasive species, as conclusions have important implications for how best to manage future biosecurity risks.

Prevalence and potential fitness cost of weak phosphine resistance in Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) in eastern Australia

The prevalence of resistance to phosphine in the rust-red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum, from eastern Australia was investigated, as well as the potential fitness cost of this type of resistance. Discriminating dose tests on 115 population samples collected from farms from 2006 to 2010 showed that populations containing insects with the weakly resistant phenotype are common in eastern Australia (65.2 of samples), although the frequency of resistant phenotypes within samples was typically low (median of 2.3). The population cage approach was used to investigate the possibility that carrying the alleles for weak resistance incurs a fitness cost. Hybridized populations were initiated using a resistant strain and either of two different susceptible strains. There was no evidence of a fitness cost based on the frequency of susceptible phenotypes in hybridized populations that were reared for seven generations without exposure to phosphine. This suggests that resistant alleles will tend to persist in field populations that have undergone selection even if selection pressure is removed. The prevalence of resistance is a warning that this species has been subject to considerable selection pressure and that effective resistance management practices are needed to address this problem. The resistance prevalence data also provide a basis against which to measure management success.

Short-term survival of discarded pearl perch (Glaucosoma scapulare Ramsay, 1881) caught by hook-and-line in Queensland, Australia

Post-release survival of line-caught pearl perch (Glaucosoma scapulare) was assessed via field experiments where fish were angled using methods similar to those used by commercial, recreational and charter fishers. One hundred and eighty-three individuals were caught during four experiments, of which >91 survived up to three days post-capture. Hook location was found to be the best predictor of survival, with the survival of throat- or stomach-hooked pearl perch significantly (P < 0.05) lower than those hooked in either the mouth or lip. Post-release survival was similar for both legal (≥35 cm) and sub-legal (<35 cm) pearl perch, while those individuals showing no signs of barotrauma were more likely to survive in the short term. Examination of the swim bladders in the laboratory, combined with observations in the field, revealed that swim bladders rupture during ascent from depth allowing swim bladder gases to escape into the gut cavity. As angled fish approach the surface, the alimentary tract ruptures near the anus allowing swim bladder gases to escape the gut cavity. As a result, very few pearl perch exhibit barotrauma symptoms and no barotrauma mitigation strategies were recommended. The results of this study show that pearl perch are relatively resilient to catch-and-release suggesting that post-release mortality would not contribute significantly to total fishing mortality. We recommend the use of circle hooks, fished actively on tight lines, combined with minimal handling in order to maximise the post-release survival of pearl perch.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Natural host range, thrips and seed transmission of distinct Tobacco streak virus strains in Queensland, Australia

Diseases caused by Tobacco streak virus (TSV) have resulted in significant crop losses in sunflower and mung bean crops in Australia. Two genetically distinct strains from central Queensland, TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, have been previously described. They share only 81% total-genome nucleotide sequence identity and have distinct major alternative hosts, Parthenium hysterophorus (parthenium) and Verbesina encelioides (crownbeard). We developed and used strain-specific multiplex Polymerase chain reactions (PCRs) for the three RNA segments of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard to accurately characterise the strains naturally infecting 41 hosts species. Hosts included species from 11 plant families, including 12 species endemic to Australia. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was both a natural host of, and experimentally infected by TSV-parthenium but this infection combination resulted in non-viable seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. TSV-crownbeard was seed transmitted from naturally infected crownbeard at a rate of between 5% and 50% and was closely associated with the geographical distribution of crownbeard in central Queensland. TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard were also seed transmitted in experimentally infected ageratum (Ageratum houstonianum) at rates of up to 40% and 27%, respectively. The related subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus, was also seed transmitted at a rate of 18% in ageratum which is its major alternative host. Thrips species Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis were commonly found in flowers of TSV-affected crops and nearby weed hosts. Both species readily transmitted TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. The results are discussed in terms of how two genetically and biologically distinct TSV strains have similar life cycle strategies in the same environment.

Improving the effectiveness of age-abundance indicators in the management of fisheries in Queensland, Australia

The development of fishery indicators is a crucial undertaking as it ultimately provides evidence to stakeholders about the status of fished species such as population size and survival rates. In Queensland, as in many other parts of the world, age-abundance indicators (e.g. fish catch rate and/or age composition data) are traditionally used as the evidence basis because they provide information on species life history traits as well as on changes in fishing pressures and population sizes. Often, however, the accuracy of the information from age-abundance indicators can be limited due to missing or biased data. Consequently, improved statistical methods are required to enhance the accuracy, precision and decision-support value of age-abundance indicators.

Eradication of two incursions of the Red Imported Fire Ant in Queensland, Australia

Of the five known incursions of the highly invasive Red Imported Fire Ant in Australia, two are regarded to have been eradicated. As treatment efforts continue, and the programme evolves and new tools become available, eradication is still considered to be feasible for the remaining Red Imported Fire Ant populations with long-term commitment and support.

Spatiotemporal aspects of Hendra Virus infection in Pteropid Bats (Flying-Foxes) in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.

Description of vectors of arboviruses of livestock in Northern Australia

The project aimed to detect exotic C"11coides species recently established in northern Australia and to map the distribution of Cullcoid"' bi'e\, nth'sis and C. 1.1-, oddiill Western Australia and NT. Between February 1990 and June 1992, collections were Inade throughout Cape York Peninsula, Nortlierii Territory and northern and central Western Australia. Six previously unreported species were collected. These species an'e considered unlikely to be recent jininigrants and seein to pose little threat as potential arboviiT. Is vectors. C. woddi was restricted to coastal 1101tlierii Qld, the northernmost areas of NT and the northern Kiinberley region in WA. 111 NT C. bi'evitai'sis was collected as far soutli as Katlierine. In WA it was collected throughout the Kiinberley and in the Pilbara region ill all area bounded by Nullagine, KanTatha and 300km nortli of Carnalvon. C. bi'evilcii'sis reinains tlie only Guncoide. s species of known 11npoitance as a vector of livestock an'boviruses to extend into Inajor sheep-grazing areas. Generally, CUIicoides distributions in northern Australia between 1990 and 1992 were coinparable but not identical to those defined ill surveys conducted ill tlie 1970's and 1980's. Species distributions were not static and will continue to fluctuate witli variation ill rainfall. . .

"Description of blue tongue and other arboviruses in Northern Australia"

A serological survey of cattle from throughout Queensland and sheep from cattle/sheep interface areas was conducted to determine the distribution and prevalence of antibodies to Bluetongue virus serotypes. This information allowed preliminary designation of arbovirusfree zones and identification of livestock populations at greatest risk to introduction of exotic Bluetongue viruses. Throughout the state antibodies were detected to only serotypes I and 21. In cattle prevalence decreased with increasing distance from the coast ringing from 73% in the far north to less than I% in the southwest. In sheep, prevalence of bluetongue antibodies in the major cattle/sheep interface areas in the north-west and central Queensland ranged from O% to 5%. A system of strategically placed sentinel herds of 10 young serologically negative cattle was established across northern Australia to monitor the distribution and seasonality of bluetongue viruses. Initially 23 herds were located in Queensland, 4 in Northern Territory and 2 in Western Australia but by the completion of the project the number of herds in Queensland had been reduced to 12. No bluetongue virus activity was detected in Western Australia or Northern Territory herds throughout the project although testing of one herd in Northern Territory with a history of bluetongue activity was not done after June 1991. In Queensland, activity to bluetongue serotypes I and 21 was detected in all years of the project. Transmissions occurred predominantly in the period April to September and were more widespread in wetter years' The pathogenic bluetongue setotypes previously isolated from the Northern Territory have not spread to adjoining States.

Improving cost-effectiveness of supplementation systems for breeder herds in northern Australia

Low level strategic supplements constitute one of the few options for northern beef producers to increase breeder productivity and profitability. Objectives of the project were to improve the cost-effectiveness of using such supplements and to improve supplement delivery systems. Urea-based supplements fed during the dry season can substantially reduce breeder liveweight loss and increase fertility during severe dry seasons. Also when fed during the late wet season these supplements increased breeder body liveweight and increased fertility of breeders in low body condition. Intake of dry lick supplements fed free choice is apparently determined primarily by the palatability of supplements relative to pasture, and training of cattle appears to be of limited importance. Siting of supplementation points has some effect on supplement intake, but little effect on grazing behaviour. Economic analysis of supplementation (urea, phosphorus or molasses) and weaning strategies was based on the relative efficacy of these strategies to maintain breeder body condition late in the dry season. Adequate body condition of breeders at this time of the year is needed to avoid mortality from under-nutrition and achieve satisfactory fertility of breeders during the following wet season. Supplements were highly cost-effective when they reduced mortality, but economic returns were generally low if the only benefit was increased fertility.