Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia

Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia’s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901–2007), and two emission scenarios (“low” and “high” CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from −5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from −5 to −30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North–south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.

Can sustainable cotton production systems be developed for tropical northern Australia?

This article reviews research coordinated by the Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) that investigated production issues for irrigated cotton at five targeted sites in tropical northern Australia, north of 21°S from Broome in Western Australia to the Burdekin in Queensland. The biotic and abiotic issues for cotton production were investigated with the aim of defining the potential limitations and, where appropriate, building a sustainable technical foundation for a future industry if it were to follow. Key lessons from the Cotton CRC research effort were: (1) limitations thought to be associated with cotton production in northern Australia can be overcome by developing a deep understanding of biotic and environmental constraints, then tailoring and validating production practices; and (2) transplanting of southern farming practices without consideration of local pest, soil and climatic factors is unlikely to succeed. Two grower guides were published which synthesised the research for new growers into a rational blueprint for sustainable cotton production in each region. In addition to crop production and environmental impact issues, the project identified the following as key elements needed to establish new cropping regions in tropical Australia: rigorous quantification of suitable land and sustainable water yields; support from governments; a long-term funding model for locally based research; the inclusion of traditional owners; and development of human capacity.

Crop design for specific adaptation in variable dryland production environments

Climatic variability in dryland production environments (E) generates variable yield and crop production risks. Optimal combinations of genotype (G) and management (M) depend strongly on E and thus vary among sites and seasons. Traditional crop improvement seeks broadly adapted genotypes to give best average performance under a standard management regime across the entire production region, with some subsequent manipulation of management regionally in response to average local environmental conditions. This process does not search the full spectrum of potential G × M × E combinations forming the adaptation landscape. Here we examine the potential value (relative to the conventional, broad adaptation approach) of exploiting specific adaptation arising from G × M × E. We present an in-silico analysis for sorghum production in Australia using the APSIM sorghum model. Crop design (G × M) is optimised for subsets of locations within the production region (specific adaptation) and is compared with the optimum G across all environments with locally modified M (broad adaptation). We find that geographic subregions that have frequencies of major environment types substantially different from that for the entire production region show greatest advantage for specific adaptation. Although the specific adaptation approach confers yield and production risk advantages at industry scale, even greater benefits should be achievable with better predictors of environment-type likelihood than that conferred by location alone.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

Emerging literature on climate adaptation suggests the need for effective ways of engaging or activating communities and supporting community roles, coupled with whole-of-system approaches to understanding climate change and adaptation needs. We have developed and evaluated a participatory approach to elicit community and stakeholder understanding of climate change adaptation needs, and connect diverse community members and local office bearers towards potential action. The approach was trialed in a series of connected social-ecological systems along a transect from a rural area to the coast and islands of ecologically sensitive Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia. We conducted ‘climate roundtables’ in each of three areas along the transect, then a fourth roundtable reviewed and extended the results to the region as a whole. Influence diagrams produced through the process show how each climate variable forecast to affect this region (heat, storm, flood, sea-level rise, fire, drought) affects the natural environment, infrastructure, economic and social behaviour patterns, and psychosocial responses, and how sets of people, species and ecosystems are affected, and act, differentially. The participatory process proved effective as a way of building local empathy, a local knowledge base and empowering participants to join towards future climate adaptation action. Key principles are highlighted to assist in adapting the process for use elsewhere.

Weeds of Direct-Seeded Rice in Asia: Problems and Opportunities

Rice production symbolizes the single largest land use for food production on the Earth. The significance of this cereal as a source of energy and income seems overwhelming for millions of people in Asia, representing 90% of global rice production and consumption. Estimates indicate that the burgeoning population will need 25% more rice by 2025 than today's consumption. As the demand for rice is increasing, its production in Asia is threatened by a dwindling natural resource base, socioeconomic limitations, and uncertainty of climatic optima. Transplanting in puddled soil with continuous flooding is a common method of rice crop establishment in Asia. There is a dire need to look for rice production technologies that not only cope with existing limitations of transplanted rice but also are viable, economical, and secure for future food demand.Direct seeding of rice has evolved as a potential alternative to the current detrimental practice of puddling and nursery transplanting. The associated benefits include higher water productivity, less labor and energy inputs, less methane emissions, elimination of time and edaphic conflicts in the rice-wheat cropping system, and early crop maturity. Realization of the yield potential and sustainability of this resource-conserving rice production technique lies primarily in sustainable weed management, since weeds have been recognized as the single largest biological constraint in direct-seeded rice (DSR). Weed competition can reduce DSR yield by 30-80% and even complete crop failure can occur under specific conditions. Understanding the dynamics and outcomes of weed-crop competition in DSR requires sound knowledge of weed ecology, besides production factors that influence both rice and weeds, as well as their association. Successful adoption of direct seeding at the farmers' level in Asia will largely depend on whether farmers can control weeds and prevent shifts in weed populations from intractable weeds to more difficult-to-control weeds as a consequence of direct seeding. Sustainable weed management in DSR comprises all the factors that give DSR a competitive edge over weeds regarding acquisition and use of growth resources. This warrants the need to integrate various cultural practices with weed control measures in order to broaden the spectrum of activity against weed flora. A weed control program focusing entirely on herbicides is no longer ecologically sound, economically feasible, and effective against diverse weed flora and may result in the evolution of herbicide-resistant weed biotypes. Rotation of herbicides with contrasting modes of action in conjunction with cultural measures such as the use of weed-competitive rice cultivars, sowing time, stale seedbed technique, seeding rate, crop row spacing, fertilizer and water inputs and their application method/timing, and manual and mechanical hoeing can prove more effective and need to be optimized keeping in view the type and intensity of weed infestation. This chapter tries to unravel the dynamics of weed-crop competition in DSR. Technological issues, limitations associated with DSR, and opportunities to combat the weed menace are also discussed as a pragmatic approach for sustainable DSR production. A realistic approach to secure yield targets against weed competition will combine the abovementioned strategies and tactics in a coordinated manner. This chapter further suggests the need of multifaceted and interdisciplinary research into ecologically based weed management, as DSR seems inevitable in the near future.

Population dynamics of Thaumastocoris peregrinus in Eucalyptus plantations of South Africa

Thaumastocoris peregrinus is a sap-sucking insect that infests non-native Eucalyptus plantations in Africa, New Zealand, South America and parts of Southern Europe, in addition to street trees in parts of its native range of Australia. In South Africa, pronounced fluctuations in the population densities have been observed. To characterise spatiotemporal variability in T. peregrinus abundance and the factors that might influence it, we monitored adult population densities at six sites in the main eucalypt growing regions of South Africa. At each site, twenty yellow sticky traps were monitored weekly for 30 months, together with climatic data. We also characterised the influence of temperature on growth and survival experimentally and used this to model how temperature may influence population dynamics. T. peregrinus was present throughout the year at all sites, with annual site-specific peaks in abundance. Peaks occurred during autumn (February–April) for the Pretoria site, summer (November–January) for the Zululand site and spring (August–October) for the Tzaneen, Sabie and Piet Retief monitoring sites. Temperature (both experimental and field-collected), humidity and rainfall were mostly weakly, or not at all, associated with population fluctuations. It is clear that a complex interaction of these and other factors (e.g. host quality) influence population fluctuations in an annual, site specific cycle. The results obtained not only provide insights into the biology of T. peregrinus, but will also be important for future planning of monitoring and control programs using semiochemicals, chemical insecticides or biological control agents.

The leaf-feeding geometrid Isturgia disputaria (Guenee)-A potential biological control agent for prickly acacia, Vachellia nilotica subsp. indica (Benth.) Kyal. & Boatwr. (Mimosaceae) in Australia

Prickly acacia (Vachellia nilotica subsp. indica), a native multipurpose tree in India, is a weed of National significance, and a target for biological control in Australia. Based on plant genetic and climatic similarities, native range surveys for identifying potential biological control agents for prickly acacia were conducted in India during 2008-2011. In the survey leaf-feeding geometrid, Isturgia disputaria Guenee (syn. Tephrina pulinda), widespread in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka States, was prioritized as a potential biological control agent based on field host range, damage potential and no choice test on non target plant species. Though the field host range study exhibited that V. nilotica ssp. indica and V. nilotica ssp. tomentosa were the primary hosts for successful development of the insect, I. disputaria, replicated no - choice larval feeding and development tests conducted on cut foliage and live plants of nine non-target acacia test plant species in India revealed the larval feeding and development on three of the nine non-target acacia species, V. tortilis, V. planiferons and V. leucophloea in addition to the V. nilotica ssp. indica and V. nilotica ssp. tomentosa. However, the proportion of larvae developing into adults was higher on V. nilotica subsp. indica and V. nilotica subsp. tomentosa, with 90% and 80% of the larvae completing development, respectively. In contrast, the larval mortality was higher on V. tortilis (70%), V. leucophloea (90%) and V. planiferons (70%). The no-choice test results support the earlier host specificity test results of I. disputaria from Pakistan, Kenya and under quarantine in Australia. Contrasting results between field host range and host use pattern under no-choice conditions are discussed.

Grazing impacts on the susceptibility of rangelands to wind erosion: The effects of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition

An estimated 110 Mt of dust is eroded by wind from the Australian land surface each year, most of which originates from the arid and semi-arid rangelands. Livestock production is thought to increase the susceptibility of the rangelands to wind erosion by reducing vegetation cover and modifying surface soil stability. However, research is yet to quantify the impacts of grazing land management on the erodibility of the Australian rangelands, or determine how these impacts vary among land types and over time. We present a simulation analysis that links a pasture growth and animal production model (GRASP) to the Australian Land Erodibility Model (AUSLEM) to evaluate the impacts of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition on the erodibility of four land types in western Queensland, Australia. Our results show that declining land condition, over stocking, and using inflexible stocking strategies have potential to increase land erodibility and amplify accelerated soil erosion. However, land erodibility responses to grazing are complex and influenced by land type sensitivities to different grazing strategies and local climate characteristics. Our simulations show that land types which are more resilient to livestock grazing tend to be least susceptible to accelerated wind erosion. Increases in land erodibility are found to occur most often during climatic transitions when vegetation cover is most sensitive to grazing pressure. However, grazing effects are limited during extreme wet and dry periods when the influence of climate on vegetation cover is strongest. Our research provides the opportunity to estimate the effects of different land management practices across a range of land types, and provides a better understanding of the mechanisms of accelerated erosion resulting from pastoral activities. The approach could help further assessment of land erodibility at a broader scale notably if combined with wind erosion models.

Strategic tillage in no-till farming systems in Australia’s northern grains-growing regions: II. Implications for agronomy, soil and environment

In semi-arid sub-tropical areas, a number of studies concerning no-till (NT) farming systems have demonstrated advantages in economic, environmental and soil quality aspects over conventional tillage (CT). However, adoption of continuous NT has contributed to the build-up of herbicide resistant weed populations, increased incidence of soil- and stubble-borne diseases, and stratification of nutrients and organic carbon near the soil surface. Some farmers often resort to an occasional strategic tillage (ST) to manage these problems of NT systems. However, farmers who practice strict NT systems are concerned that even one-time tillage may undo positive soil condition benefits of NT farming systems. We reviewed the pros and cons of the use of occasional ST in NT farming systems. Impacts of occasional ST on agronomy, soil and environment are site-specific and depend on many interacting soil, climatic and management conditions. Most studies conducted in North America and Europe suggest that introducing occasional ST in continuous NT farming systems could improve productivity and profitability in the short term; however in the long-term, the impact is negligible or may be negative. The short term impacts immediately following occasional ST on soil and environment include reduced protective cover, soil loss by erosion, increased runoff, loss of C and water, and reduced microbial activity with little or no detrimental impact in the long-term. A potential negative effect immediately following ST would be reduced plant available water which may result in unreliability of crop sowing in variable seasons. The occurrence of rainfall between the ST and sowing or immediately after the sowing is necessary to replenish soil water lost from the seed zone. Timing of ST is likely to be critical and must be balanced with optimising soil water prior to seeding. The impact of occasional ST varies with the tillage implement used; for example, inversion tillage using mouldboard tillage results in greater impacts as compared to chisel or disc. Opportunities for future research on occasional ST with the most commonly used implements such as tine and/or disc in Australia’s northern grains-growing region are presented in the context of agronomy, soil and the environment.

Pen parameters for improving the performance of sheep imported from Australia to Persian Gulf feedlots

Summer in the Persian Gulf region presents physiological challenges for Australian sheep that are part of the live export supply chain coming from the Australian winter. Many feedlots throughout the Gulf have very high numbers of animals during June to August in order to cater for the increased demand for religious festivals. From an animal welfare perspective it is important to understand the necessary requirements of feed and water trough allowances, and the amount of pen space required, to cope with exposure to these types of climatic conditions. This study addresses parameters that are pertinent to the wellbeing of animals arriving in the Persian Gulf all year round. Three experiments were conducted in a feedlot in the Persian Gulf between March 2010 and February 2012, totalling 44 replicate pens each with 60 or 100 sheep. The applied treatments covered animal densities, feed-bunk lengths and water trough lengths. Weights, carcass attributes and health status were the key recorded variables. Weight change results showed superior performance for animal densities of ≥1.2 m2/head during hot conditions (24-h average temperatures greater than 33 °C, or a diurnal range of around 29–37 °C). However the space allowance for animals can be decreased, with no demonstrated detrimental effect, to 0.6 m2/head under milder conditions. A feed-bunk length of ≥5 cm/head is needed, as 2 cm/head showed significantly poorer animal performance. When feeding at 90 ad libitum 10 cm/head was optimal, however under a maintenance feeding regime (1 kg/head/day) 5 cm/head was adequate. A minimum water trough allowance of 1 cm/head is required. However, this experiment was conducted during milder conditions, and it may well be expected that larger water trough lengths would be needed in hotter conditions. Carcass weights were determined mainly by weights at feedlot entry and subsequent weight gains, while dressing percentage was not significantly affected by any of the applied treatments. There was no demonstrated effect of any of the treatments on the number of animals that died, or were classified as unwell. However, across all the treatments, these animals lost significantly more weight than the healthy animals, so the above recommendations, which are aimed at maintaining weight, should also be applicable for good animal health and welfare. Therefore, best practice guidelines for managing Australian sheep in Persian Gulf feedlots in the hottest months (June–August) which present the greatest environmental and physical challenge is to allow feed-bunk length 5 cm/head on a maintenance-feeding program and 10 cm/head for 90 ad libitum feeding, and the space allowance per animal should be ≥1.2 m2/head. Water trough allocation should be at least 1 cm/head with provision for more in the summer when water intake potentially doubles.

Risk assessment for Puccinia psidii becoming established in South Africa

Puccinia psidii, the causal agent of myrtle rust, was first recorded from Latin America more than 100 years ago. It occurs on many native species of Myrtaceae in Latin America and also infects non-native plantation-grown Eucalyptus species in the region. The pathogen has gradually spread to new areas including Australia and most recently South Africa. The aim of this study was to consider the susceptibility of selected Eucalyptus genotypes, particularly those of interest to South African forestry, to infection by P. psidii. In addition, risk maps were compiled based on suitable climatic conditions and the occurrence of potential susceptible tree species. This made it possible to identify the season when P. psidii would be most likely to infect and to define the geographic areas where the rust disease would be most likely to establish in South Africa. As expected, variation in susceptibility was observed between eucalypt genotypes tested. Importantly, species commonly planted in South Africa show good potential for yielding disease-tolerant material for future planting. Myrtle rust is predicted to be more common in spring and summer. Coastal areas, as well as areas in South Africa with subtropical climates, are more conducive to outbreaks of the pathogen.

Pen parameters for improving the performance of sheep imported from Australia to Persian Gulf feedlots

Summer in the Persian Gulf region presents physiological challenges for Australian sheep that are part of the live export supply chain coming from the Australian winter. Many feedlots throughout the Gulf have very high numbers of animals during June to August in order to cater for the increased demand for religious festivals. From an animal welfare perspective it is important to understand the necessary requirements of feed and water trough allowances, and the amount of pen space required, to cope with exposure to these types of climatic conditions. This study addresses parameters that are pertinent to the wellbeing of animals arriving in the Persian Gulf all year round. Three experiments were conducted in a feedlot in the Persian Gulf between March 2010 and February 2012, totalling 44 replicate pens each with 60 or 100 sheep. The applied treatments covered animal densities, feed-bunk lengths and water trough lengths. Weights, carcass attributes and health status were the key recorded variables. Weight change results showed superior performance for animal densities of ≥1.2 m2/head during hot conditions (24-h average temperatures greater than 33 °C, or a diurnal range of around 29–37 °C). However the space allowance for animals can be decreased, with no demonstrated detrimental effect, to 0.6 m2/head under milder conditions. A feed-bunk length of ≥5 cm/head is needed, as 2 cm/head showed significantly poorer animal performance. When feeding at 90% ad libitum 10 cm/head was optimal, however under a maintenance feeding regime (1 kg/head/day) 5 cm/head was adequate. A minimum water trough allowance of 1 cm/head is required. However, this experiment was conducted during milder conditions, and it may well be expected that larger water trough lengths would be needed in hotter conditions. Carcass weights were determined mainly by weights at feedlot entry and subsequent weight gains, while dressing percentage was not significantly affected by any of the applied treatments. There was no demonstrated effect of any of the treatments on the number of animals that died, or were classified as unwell. However, across all the treatments, these animals lost significantly more weight than the healthy animals, so the above recommendations, which are aimed at maintaining weight, should also be applicable for good animal health and welfare. Therefore, best practice guidelines for managing Australian sheep in Persian Gulf feedlots in the hottest months (June–August) which present the greatest environmental and physical challenge is to allow feed-bunk length 5 cm/head on a maintenance-feeding program and 10 cm/head for 90% ad libitum feeding, and the space allowance per animal should be ≥1.2 m2/head. Water trough allocation should be at least 1 cm/head with provision for more in the summer when water intake potentially doubles.

Does manure management affect the latent greenhouse gas emitting potential of livestock manures?

With livestock manures being increasingly sought as alternatives to costly synthetic fertilisers, it is imperative that we understand and manage their associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we provide the first dedicated assessment into how the GHG emitting potential of various manures responds to the different stages of the manure management continuum (e.g., from feed pen surface vs stockpiled). The research is important from the perspective of manure application to agricultural soils. Manures studied included: manure from beef feedpen surfaces and stockpiles; poultry broiler litter (8-week batch); fresh and composted egg layer litter; and fresh and composted piggery litter. Gases assessed were methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), the two principal agricultural GHGs. We employed proven protocols to determine the manures’ ultimate CH4 producing potential. We also devised a novel incubation experiment to elucidate their N2O emitting potential; a measure for which no established methods exist. We found lower CH4 potentials in manures from later stages in their management sequence compared with earlier stages, but only by a factor of 0.65×. Moreover, for the beef manures this decrease was not significant (P < 0.05). Nitrous oxide emission potential was significantly positively (P < 0.05) correlated with C/N ratios yet showed no obvious relationship with manure management stage. Indeed, N2O emissions from the composted egg manure were considerably (13×) and significantly (P < 0.05) higher than that of the fresh egg manure. Our study demonstrates that manures from all stages of the manure management continuum potentially entail significant GHG risk when applied to arable landscapes. Efforts to harness manure resources need to account for this.

Effect of added nitrogen on plant litter decomposition depends on initial soil carbon and nitrogen stoichiometry

Increasing organic carbon inputs to agricultural soils through the use of pastures or crop residues has been suggested as a means of restoring soil organic carbon lost via anthropogenic activities, such as land use change. However, the decomposition and retention of different plant residues in soil, and how these processes are affected by soil properties and nitrogen fertiliser application, is not fully understood. We evaluated the rate and extent of decomposition of 13C-pulse labelled plant material in response to nitrogen addition in four pasture soils of varying physico-chemical characteristics. Microbial respiration of buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) residues was monitored over 365-days. A double exponential model fitted to the data suggested that microbial respiration occurred as an early rapid and a late slow stage. A weighted three-compartment mixing model estimated the decomposition of both soluble and insoluble plant 13C (mg C kg−1 soil). Total plant material decomposition followed the alkyl C: O-alkyl C ratio of plant material, as determined by solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Urea-N addition increased the decomposition of insoluble plant 13C in some soils (≤0.1% total nitrogen) but not others (0.3% total nitrogen). Principal components regression analysis indicated that 26% of the variability of plant material decomposition was explained by soil physico-chemical characteristics (P = 0.001), which was primarily described by the C:N ratio. We conclude that plant species with increasing alkyl C: O-alkyl C ratio are better retained as soil organic matter, and that the C:N stoichiometry of soils determines whether N addition leads to increases in soil organic carbon stocks.