Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Herbicide resistance modelling: Past, present and future

Computer simulation modelling is an essential aid in building an integrated understanding of how different factors interact to affect the evolutionary and population dynamics of herbicide resistance, and thus in helping to predict and manage how agricultural systems will be affected. In this review, we first discuss why computer simulation modelling is such an important tool and framework for dealing with herbicide resistance. We then explain what questions related to herbicide resistance have been addressed to date using simulation modelling, and discuss the modelling approaches that have been used, focusing first on the earlier, more general approaches, and then on some newer, more innovative approaches. We then consider how these approaches could be further developed in the future, by drawing on modelling techniques that are already employed in other areas, such as individual-based and spatially explicit modelling approaches, as well as the possibility of better representing genetics, competition and economics, and finally the questions and issues of importance to herbicide resistance research and management that could be addressed using these new approaches are discussed. We conclude that it is necessary to proceed with caution when increasing the complexity of models by adding new details, but, with appropriate care, more detailed models will make it possible to integrate more current knowledge in order better to understand, predict and ultimately manage the evolution of herbicide resistance. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Comparison of fungicide dips efficacies for the control of mango postharvest diseases

The shelf-life of mangoes is limited by two main postharvest diseases when not consistently managed. These are anthracnose ( Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) and stem end rots ( Neofusicoccum parvum). The management of these diseases has often relied mainly on the use of fungicide applications either as field spray treatments and/or postharvest dips. Current postharvest dips are under continuous threats because of health concerns and the maximum residue levels allowed on treated fruit continuous to be reviewed and re-assessed. Research needs to keep up with the rate at which changes are occurring following some of these reviews. The recent withdrawal of carbendazin (Spinflo), as a postharvest dip being used to manage stem end rots necessitated the urgent search for a replacement fungicide to manage this disease. A study was therefore undertaken to compare the efficacy of current and potential products that could be used to fill the gap. The following products were evaluated: Carbendazin (Spinflo), Prochloraz (Sportak), Thiobendazole (TBZ) and Fludioxonil (Scholar). These products were tested both under ambient temperatures and as hot dips to identify one that was most effective. Scholar as a hot dip was the most effective product among the ones compared. It effectively controlled both anthracnose and stem end rots at highly significant levels when compared to the untreated control and even Spinflo which is being replaced. As a cold dip, it had some limited effect on anthracnose but had virtually no effect on stem end rots. Based on its performance in these experiments, the product has been recommended for rates and residue studies so that it can be registered as a hot dip for use in controlling postharvest diseases of mangoes.

Complementary forages – integration at a whole-farm level

A high proportion of the Australian and New Zealand dairy industry is based on a relatively simple, low input and low cost pasture feedbase. These factors enable this type of production system to remain internationally competitive. However, a key limitation of pasture-based dairy systems is periodic imbalances between herd intake requirements and pasture DM production, caused by strong seasonality and high inter-annual variation in feed supply. This disparity can be moderated to a certain degree through the strategic management of the herd through altering calving dates and stocking rates, and the feedbase by conserving excess forage and irrigating to flatten seasonal forage availability. Australasian dairy systems are experiencing emerging market and environmental challenges, which includes increased competition for land and water resources, decreasing terms of trade, a changing and variable climate, an increasing environmental focus that requires improved nutrient and water-use efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions. The integration of complementary forages has long been viewed as a means to manipulate the home-grown feed supply, to improve the nutritive value and DM intake of the diet, and to increase the efficiency of inputs utilised. Only recently has integrating complementary forages at the whole-farm system level received the significant attention and investment required to examine their potential benefit. Recent whole-of-farm research undertaken in both Australia and New Zealand has highlighted the importance of understanding the challenges of the current feedbase and the level of complementarity between forage types required to improve profit, manage risk and/or alleviate/mitigate against adverse outcomes. This paper reviews the most recent systems-level research into complementary forages, discusses approaches to modelling their integration at the whole-farm level and highlights the potential of complementary forages to address the major challenges currently facing pasture-based dairy systems.

Learning from the past to predict the future: an historical analysis of grass invasions in northern Australia

An important focus of biosecurity is anticipating future risks, but time lags between introduction, naturalisation, and (ultimately) impact mean that future risks can be strongly influenced by history. We conduct a comprehensive historical analysis of tropical grasses (n = 155) that have naturalised in Australia since European settlement (1788) to determine what factors shaped historical patterns of naturalisation and future risks, including for the 21 species that cause serious negative impacts. Most naturalised species were from the Old World (78 %), were introduced for use in pasture (64.5 %), were first recorded prior to 1940 (84.5 %) and naturalised before 1980 (90.3 %). Patterns for high-impact species were similar, with all being first recorded in Australia by 1940, and only seven naturalised since then-five intentionally introduced as pasture species. Counter to expectations, we found no evidence for increased naturalisation with increasing trade, including for species introduced unintentionally for which the link was expected to be strongest. New pathways have not emerged since the 1930s despite substantial shifts in trading patterns. Furthermore, introduction and naturalisation rates are now at or approaching historically low levels. Three reasons were identified: (1) the often long lag phase between introduction and reported naturalisation means naturalisation rates reflect historical trends in introduction rates; (2) important introduction pathways are not directly related to trade volume and globalisation; and (3) that species pools may become depleted. The last of these appears to be the case for the most important pathway for tropical grasses, i.e. the intentional introduction of useful pasture species. Assuming that new pathways don't arise that might result in increased naturalisation rates, and that current at-border biosecurity practices remain in place, we conclude that most future high-impact tropical grass species are already present in Australia. Our results highlight the need to continually test underlying assumptions regarding future naturalisation rates of high-impact invasive species, as conclusions have important implications for how best to manage future biosecurity risks.

The role of BoFLC2 in cauliflower (Brassica oleracea var. botrytis L.) reproductive development

In agricultural species that are sexually propagated or whose marketable organ is a reproductive structure, management of the flowering process is critical. Inflorescence development in cauliflower is particularly complex, presenting unique challenges for those seeking to predict and manage flowering time. In this study, an integrated physiological and molecular approach was used to clarify the environmental control of cauliflower reproductive development at the molecular level. A functional allele of BoFLC2 was identified for the first time in an annual brassica, along with an allele disrupted by a frameshift mutation (boflc2). In a segregating F2 population derived from a cross between late-flowering (BoFLC2) and early-flowering (boflc2) lines, this gene behaved in a dosage-dependent manner and accounted for up to 65% of flowering time variation. Transcription of BoFLC genes was reduced by vernalization, with the floral integrator BoFT responding inversely. Overall expression of BoFT was significantly higher in early-flowering boflc2 lines, supporting the idea that BoFLC2 plays a key role in maintaining the vegetative state. A homologue of Arabidopsis VIN3 was isolated for the first time in a brassica crop species and was up-regulated by two days of vernalization, in contrast to findings in Arabidopsis where prolonged exposure to cold was required to elicit up-regulation. The correlations observed between gene expression and flowering time in controlled-environment experiments were validated with gene expression analyses of cauliflowers grown outdoors under 'natural' vernalizing conditions, indicating potential for transcript levels of flowering genes to form the basis of predictive assays for curd initiation and flowering time.

The Effect of Silica and Manure Addition into Suppressive and Conducive Soil on the Incidence of Fusarium Wilt Disease of Banana

Fusarium wilt, caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense (Foc), is one of the most destructive diseases of banana. One potential method to manage fusarium wilt of banana is by manipulating the nutrient status in the soil. This study was conducted to determine the quality of Foc suppressive and conducive soil, the influence of soil application of silica and manure on the incidence of fusarium wilt of banana. Surveys were conducted in five banana plantations in three provinces in Indonesia: Lampung-Sumatra, West Java and Central Java. From the five locations, one location (Sala-man-Central Java) was heavily infected by Foc, another location (NTF Lampung-Sumatera) was slightly infected by Foc, while the rest (Sarampad-West Java, Talaga-West Java and GGP Lampung-Sumatra) were healthy banana plantations without Foc infection. Labile carbon analysis showed that the Foc suppressive soil had greater labile carbon content than conducive soil. Also, the analysis of fluorescein diacetate hydrolysis (FDA) and ?-glucosidase showed greater microbial activity in suppressive soil than the conducive soil. Observations of the incidence of necrotic rhizome of Foc susceptible 'Ambon Kuning' (AAA) banana cultivar showed that in the suppressive soil taken from Sarampad West Java, the application of silica and manure helped suppress fusarium wilt disease development. In the conducive soil taken from Salaman-Central Java, silica and manure applications were not able to suppress disease incidence. The result of this study indicated that in suppressive soil, the application of silica can increase plant resistance to Foc infection, while manure application can increase soil microbial activity, and suppress Foc development.

Strategic tillage in no-till farming systems in Australia’s northern grains-growing regions: II. Implications for agronomy, soil and environment

In semi-arid sub-tropical areas, a number of studies concerning no-till (NT) farming systems have demonstrated advantages in economic, environmental and soil quality aspects over conventional tillage (CT). However, adoption of continuous NT has contributed to the build-up of herbicide resistant weed populations, increased incidence of soil- and stubble-borne diseases, and stratification of nutrients and organic carbon near the soil surface. Some farmers often resort to an occasional strategic tillage (ST) to manage these problems of NT systems. However, farmers who practice strict NT systems are concerned that even one-time tillage may undo positive soil condition benefits of NT farming systems. We reviewed the pros and cons of the use of occasional ST in NT farming systems. Impacts of occasional ST on agronomy, soil and environment are site-specific and depend on many interacting soil, climatic and management conditions. Most studies conducted in North America and Europe suggest that introducing occasional ST in continuous NT farming systems could improve productivity and profitability in the short term; however in the long-term, the impact is negligible or may be negative. The short term impacts immediately following occasional ST on soil and environment include reduced protective cover, soil loss by erosion, increased runoff, loss of C and water, and reduced microbial activity with little or no detrimental impact in the long-term. A potential negative effect immediately following ST would be reduced plant available water which may result in unreliability of crop sowing in variable seasons. The occurrence of rainfall between the ST and sowing or immediately after the sowing is necessary to replenish soil water lost from the seed zone. Timing of ST is likely to be critical and must be balanced with optimising soil water prior to seeding. The impact of occasional ST varies with the tillage implement used; for example, inversion tillage using mouldboard tillage results in greater impacts as compared to chisel or disc. Opportunities for future research on occasional ST with the most commonly used implements such as tine and/or disc in Australia’s northern grains-growing region are presented in the context of agronomy, soil and the environment.

Strategic tillage in no-till farming systems in Australia’s northern grains-growing regions: I. Drivers and implementation

Development of no-tillage (NT) farming has revolutionized agricultural systems by allowing growers to manage greater areas of land with reduced energy, labour and machinery inputs to control erosion, improve soil health and reduce greenhouse gas emission. However, NT farming systems have resulted in a build-up of herbicide-resistant weeds, an increased incidence of soil- and stubble-borne diseases and enrichment of nutrients and carbon near the soil surface. Consequently, there is an increased interest in the use of an occasional tillage (termed strategic tillage, ST) to address such emerging constraints in otherwise-NT farming systems. Decisions around ST uses will depend upon the specific issues present on the individual field or farm, and profitability and effectiveness of available options for management. This paper explores some of the issues with the implementation of ST in NT farming systems. The impact of contrasting soil properties, the timing of the tillage and the prevailing climate exert a strong influence on the success of ST. Decisions around timing of tillage are very complex and depend on the interactions between soil water content and the purpose for which the ST is intended. The soil needs to be at the right water content before executing any tillage, while the objective of the ST will influence the frequency and type of tillage implement used. The use of ST in long-term NT systems will depend on factors associated with system costs and profitability, soil health and environmental impacts. For many farmers maintaining farm profitability is a priority, so economic considerations are likely to be a primary factor dictating adoption. However, impacts on soil health and environment, especially the risk of erosion and the loss of soil carbon, will also influence a grower’s choice to adopt ST, as will the impact on soil moisture reserves in rainfed cropping systems.

Managing resistance to chemical treatments in stored products pests

This review focuses on key trends in resistance to chemical treatments in stored product pests, and advances in resistance management, with an emphasis on resistance to the fumigant phosphine. Findings: Phosphine resistance continues to be a major concern. In particular, phosphine resistance in Cryptolestes ferrugineus has emerged as a serious issue, with some populations exhibiting the strongest level detected so far for this fumigant. In response, a 'quick knock down test' has been established to deliver industry and scientists 'same day' advice on the resistance status of field samples; sulfuryl fluoride is being developed as a 'resistance breaker' and phosphine dosages are being revised to manage this problem. There has been major progress in identifying the genes responsible for phosphine resistance and the development of molecular resistance diagnostics for key pests. Several studies on Rhyzopertha dominica have demonstrated that molecular screening can be used to determine the frequency of resistance alleles in samples collected from farm storages. Despite on-going research in several pests, there is no definitive answer to the question of whether there is a fitness cost associated phosphine resistance, with some studies showing a clear cost and others none. Evidence continues to emerge of resistance to grain protectants, including the juvenile hormone analogue methoprene. The development and adoption of spinosad, as a next generation 'green' treatment, and the use of protectant combinations provides opportunities to counter the problem of protectant resistance.Directions for future research: A uniform set of protocols should be developed for phosphine resistance detection for all major species. It should combine 'quick tests' and molecular diagnostics to be adopted internationally. Research is required on the establishment of a decision making system that integrates newly developed grain protectants and fumigants, other alternative control methods, as well as an accurate and rapid resistance detection system for early warning of the emergence of new resistances.

Does manure management affect the latent greenhouse gas emitting potential of livestock manures?

With livestock manures being increasingly sought as alternatives to costly synthetic fertilisers, it is imperative that we understand and manage their associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we provide the first dedicated assessment into how the GHG emitting potential of various manures responds to the different stages of the manure management continuum (e.g., from feed pen surface vs stockpiled). The research is important from the perspective of manure application to agricultural soils. Manures studied included: manure from beef feedpen surfaces and stockpiles; poultry broiler litter (8-week batch); fresh and composted egg layer litter; and fresh and composted piggery litter. Gases assessed were methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), the two principal agricultural GHGs. We employed proven protocols to determine the manures’ ultimate CH4 producing potential. We also devised a novel incubation experiment to elucidate their N2O emitting potential; a measure for which no established methods exist. We found lower CH4 potentials in manures from later stages in their management sequence compared with earlier stages, but only by a factor of 0.65×. Moreover, for the beef manures this decrease was not significant (P < 0.05). Nitrous oxide emission potential was significantly positively (P < 0.05) correlated with C/N ratios yet showed no obvious relationship with manure management stage. Indeed, N2O emissions from the composted egg manure were considerably (13×) and significantly (P < 0.05) higher than that of the fresh egg manure. Our study demonstrates that manures from all stages of the manure management continuum potentially entail significant GHG risk when applied to arable landscapes. Efforts to harness manure resources need to account for this.

Susceptibility to sulfuryl fluoride and lack of cross-resistance to phosphine in developmental stages of the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae)

BACKGROUND Our aim was to ascertain the potential of sulfuryl fluoride (SF) as an alternative fumigant to manage phosphine-resistant pests. We tested the susceptibility of all life stages of red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst), to SF and assessed the presence of cross-resistance to this fumigant in phosphine-resistant strains of this species. RESULTS Analysis of dose–response data indicated that the egg was the stage most tolerant to SF under a 48 h exposure period. At LC50, eggs were 29 times more tolerant than other immature stages and adults, and required a relatively high concentration of 48.2 mg L−1 for complete mortality. No significant differences in tolerance to SF were observed among the three larval instars, pupae and adults, and all of these stages were controlled at a low concentration of 1.32 mg L−1. Phosphine-resistant strains did not show cross-resistance to SF. CONCLUSION Our research concluded that the current maximum registered rate of SF, 1500 gh m−3, is adequate to control all the post-embryonic life stages of T. castaneum over a 48 h fumigation period, but it will fail to achieve complete mortality of eggs, indicating the risk of some survival of eggs under this short exposure period. As there is no cross-resistance to SF in phosphine-resistant insects, it will play a key role in managing phosphine resistance in stored-grain insect pests. © 2014 Commonwealth of Australia. Pest Management Science © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry

Implementing technologies and strategies to maintain resistance to sunflower rust

This project proposes to implement resistance gene pyramiding strategies through close collaboration with Pacific Seeds. These strategies have been developed by Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (DPI&F) researchers in two previous GRDC projects, DAQ356 and DAQ537. The gene pyramids will be incorporated into elite breeding material using techniques and technologies developed by DPI&F. These include the use of DNA markers. If successful, a range of elite lines/commercial hybrids containing strategic resistance gene pyramids will be available to growers. These lines will provide the industry with a directed strategy to manage the sunflower rust pathogen and reduce the risk of outbreaks of the disease.

Plants of Central Queensland: Identification and Uses of Native and Introduced Species

Conservation and sustainable productivity are vital issues for Australia. In order to manage vegetation well from an agricultural, recreational or conservation point of view, an understanding of individual plant species is important. Plants of Central Queensland provides a guide for identifying and understanding the plants of the region so that pastoralists and others can be better equipped to manage the vegetation resource of our grazing lands. Central Queensland straddles the Tropic of Capricorn, although many of the plants in the book will also be found outside this area, as shown by their distribution maps. The book provides information on the habit, distribution, foliage and fruits of 525 plant species. Informative notes highlighting declared, poisonous, weed and medicinal plants are included, and plants useful for bees and bush tucker are also noted. These are the most important plants you might see if you live in or travel through central Queensland. This book has an easy-to-read, non-botanical format, with helpful photographs and distribution maps that greatly aid anyone interested in the vegetation of central Queensland. It is based on a previous work of the same title but is greatly expanded, incorporating information on an additional 285 plant species.

Multijurisdictional fisheries performance reporting: How Australia’s nationally standardised approach to assessing stock status compares

Australian marine wild-capture fisheries are managed by eight separate jurisdictions. Traditionally, fishery status reports have been produced separately by most of these jurisdictions, assessing the fish stocks they manage, and reporting on the effectiveness of their fisheries management. However, the format, the type of stock status assessments, the thresholds and terminology used to describe stock status and the classification frameworks have varied over time and among jurisdictions. These differences complicate efforts to understand stock status on a national scale. They also create potential misunderstanding among the wider community about how to interpret information on the status of fish stocks, and the fisheries management and science processes more generally. This is especially true when considering stocks that are shared across two or more jurisdictional boundaries. A standardised approach was developed in 2011 leading to production of the first national Status of key Australian fish stocks reports in 2012, followed by a second edition in 2014 (www.fish.gov.au). Production of these reports was the first step towards a broader national approach to reporting on the performance of Australian fisheries for target species and for wider ecosystem and socioeconomic consequences. This paper outlines the challenges associated with moving towards national performance reporting for target fish stocks and Australia’s successes so far. It also outlines the challenges ahead, in particular those relating to reporting more broadly on the status of entire fisheries. Comparisons are drawn between Australia and New Zealand and more broadly between Australia and other countries.