Long-term trends in fertility of soils under continuous cultivation and cereal cropping in southern Queensland. IX. Simulation of soil carbon and nitrogen pools using CENTURY model

Cultivation and cropping of soils results in a decline in soil organic carbon and soil nitrogen, and can lead to reduced crop yields. The CENTURY model was used to simulate the effects of continuous cultivation and cereal cropping on total soil organic matter (C and N), carbon pools, nitrogen mineralisation, and crop yield from 6 locations in southern Queensland. The model was calibrated for each replicate from the original datasets, allowing comparisons for each replicate rather than site averages. The CENTURY model was able to satisfactorily predict the impact of long-term cultivation and cereal cropping on total organic carbon, but was less successful in simulating the different fractions and nitrogen mineralisation. The model firstly over-predicted the initial (pre-cropping) soil carbon and nitrogen concentration of the sites. To account for the unique shrinking and swelling characteristics of the Vertosol soils, the default annual decomposition rates of the slow and passive carbon pools were doubled, and then the model accurately predicted initial conditions. The ability of the model to predict carbon pool fractions varied, demonstrating the difficulty inherent in predicting the size of these conceptual pools. The strength of the model lies in the ability to closely predict the starting soil organic matter conditions, and the ability to predict the impact of clearing, cultivation, fertiliser application, and continuous cropping on total soil carbon and nitrogen.

Predicting the response of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) to liquid and granular phosphorus fertilisers in Australian soils

Liquid forms of phosphorus (P) have been shown to be more effective than granular P for promoting cereal growth in alkaline soils with high levels of free calcium carbonate on Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. However, the advantage of liquid over granular P forms of fertiliser has not been fully investigated across the wide range of soils used for grain production in Australia. A glasshouse pot experiment tested if liquid P fertilisers were more effective for growing spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) than granular P (monoammonium phosphate) in 28 soils from all over Australia with soil pH (H2O) ranging from 5.2 to 8.9. Application of liquid P resulted in greater shoot biomass, as measured after 4 weeks' growth (mid to late tillering, Feeks growth stage 2-3), than granular P in 3 of the acidic to neutral soils and in 3 alkaline soils. Shoot dry matter responses of spring wheat to applied liquid or granular P were related to soil properties to determine if any of the properties predicted superior yield responses to liquid P. The calcium carbonate content of soil was the only soil property that significantly contributed to predicting when liquid P was more effective than granular P. Five soil P test procedures (Bray, Colwell, resin, isotopically exchangeable P, and diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT)) were assessed to determine their ability to measure soil test P on subsamples of soil collected before the experiment started. These soil test values were then related to the dry matter shoot yields to assess their ability to predict wheat yield responses to P applied as liquid or granular P. All 5 soil test procedures provided a reasonable prediction of dry matter responses to applied P as either liquid or granular P, with the resin P test having a slightly greater predictive capacity on the range of soils tested. The findings of this investigation suggest that liquid P fertilisers do have some potential applications in non-calcareous soils and confirm current recommendations for use of liquid P fertiliser to grow cereal crops in highly calcareous soils. Soil P testing procedures require local calibration for response to the P source that is going to be used to amend P deficiency.

Assessing the sustainability of wheat-based cropping systems using APSIM: Model parameterisation and evaluation

Assessing the sustainability of crop and soil management practices in wheat-based rotations requires a well-tested model with the demonstrated ability to sensibly predict crop productivity and changes in the soil resource. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) suite of models was parameterised and subsequently used to predict biomass production, yield, crop water and nitrogen (N) use, as well as long-term soil water and organic matter dynamics in wheat/chickpea systems at Tel Hadya, north-western Syria. The model satisfactorily simulated the productivity and water and N use of wheat and chickpea crops grown under different N and/or water supply levels in the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 experimental seasons. Analysis of soil-water dynamics showed that the 2-stage soil evaporation model in APSIM's cascading water-balance module did not sufficiently explain the actual soil drying following crop harvest under conditions where unused water remained in the soil profile. This might have been related to evaporation from soil cracks in the montmorillonitic clay soil, a process not explicitly simulated by APSIM. Soil-water dynamics in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations (1987-98) were nevertheless well simulated when the soil water content in 0-0.45 m soil depth was set to 'air dry' at the end of the growing season each year. The model satisfactorily simulated the amounts of NO3-N in the soil, whereas it underestimated the amounts of NH 4-N. Ammonium fixation might be part of the soil mineral-N dynamics at the study site because montmorillonite is the major clay mineral. This process is not simulated by APSIM's nitrogen module. APSIM was capable of predicting long-term trends (1985-98) in soil organic matter in wheat-fallow and wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya as reported in literature. Overall, results showed that the model is generic and mature enough to be extended to this set of environmental conditions and can therefore be applied to assess the sustainability of wheat-chickpea rotations at Tel Hadya.

Survey of weed flora and management relative to cropping practices in the north-eastern grain region of Australia

The main weeds and weed management practices undertaken in broad acre dryland cropping areas of north-eastern Australia have been identified. The information was collected in a comprehensive postal survey of both growers and agronomists from Dubbo in New South Wales (NSW) through to Clermont in central Queensland, where 237 surveys were returned. A very diverse weed flora of 105 weeds from 91 genera was identified for the three cropping zones within the region (central Queensland, southern Queensland and northern NSW). Twenty-three weeds were common to all cropping zones. The major common weeds were Sonchus oleraceus, Rapistrum rugosum, Echinochloa spp. and Urochloa panicoides. The main weeds were identified for both summer and winter fallows, and sorghum, wheat and chickpea crops for each of the zones, with some commonality as well as floral uniqueness recorded. More genera were recorded in the fallows than in crops, and those in summer fallows exceeded the number in winter. Across the region, weed management relied heavily on herbicides. In fallows, glyphosate and mixes with glyphosate were very common, although the importance of the glyphosate mix partner differed among the cropping zones. Use and importance of pre-emergence herbicides in-crop varied considerably among the zones. In wheat, more graminicides were used in northern NSW than in southern Queensland, and virtually none were used in central Queensland, reflecting the differences in winter grass weed flora across the region. Atrazine was the major herbicide used in sorghum, although metolachlor was also used predominantly in northern NSW. Fallow and inter-row cultivation were used more often in the southern areas of the region. Grazing of fallows was more prominent in northern NSW. High crop seeding rates were not commonly recorded indicating that growers are not using crop competition as a tool for weed management. Although many management practices were recorded overall, few growers were using integrated weed management, and herbicide resistance has been and continues to be an issue for the region.

Estimating crop area using seasonal time series of enhanced vegetation index from MODIS satellite imagery

Cereal grain is one of the main export commodities of Australian agriculture. Over the past decade, crop yield forecasts for wheat and sorghum have shown appreciable utility for industry planning at shire, state, and national scales. There is now an increasing drive from industry for more accurate and cost-effective crop production forecasts. In order to generate production estimates, accurate crop area estimates are needed by the end of the cropping season. Multivariate methods for analysing remotely sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 16-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery within the cropping period (i.e. April-November) were investigated to estimate crop area for wheat, barley, chickpea, and total winter cropped area for a case study region in NE Australia. Each pixel classification method was trained on ground truth data collected from the study region. Three approaches to pixel classification were examined: (i) cluster analysis of trajectories of EVI values from consecutive multi-date imagery during the crop growth period; (ii) harmonic analysis of the time series (HANTS) of the EVI values; and (iii) principal component analysis (PCA) of the time series of EVI values. Images classified using these three approaches were compared with each other, and with a classification based on the single MODIS image taken at peak EVI. Imagery for the 2003 and 2004 seasons was used to assess the ability of the methods to determine wheat, barley, chickpea, and total cropped area estimates. The accuracy at pixel scale was determined by the percent correct classification metric by contrasting all pixel scale samples with independent pixel observations. At a shire level, aggregated total crop area estimates were compared with surveyed estimates. All multi-temporal methods showed significant overall capability to estimate total winter crop area. There was high accuracy at pixel scale (>98% correct classification) for identifying overall winter cropping. However, discrimination among crops was less accurate. Although the use of single-date EVI data produced high accuracy for estimates of wheat area at shire scale, the result contradicted the poor pixel-scale accuracy associated with this approach, due to fortuitous compensating errors. Further studies are needed to extrapolate the multi-temporal approaches to other geographical areas and to improve the lead time for deriving cropped-area estimates before harvest.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.

Fate of potassium fertilisers applied to clay soils under rainfed grain cropping in south-east Queensland, Australia

Negative potassium (K) balances in all broadacre grain cropping systems in northern Australia are resulting in a decline in the plant-available reserves of K and necessitating a closer examination of strategies to detect and respond to developing K deficiency in clay soils. Grain growers on the Red Ferrosol soils have increasingly encountered K deficiency over the last 10 years due to lower available K reserves in these soils in their native condition. However, the problem is now increasingly evident on the medium-heavy clay soils (Black and Grey Vertosols) and is made more complicated by the widespread adoption of direct drill cropping systems and the resulting strong strati. cation of available K reserves in the top 0.05-0.1 m of the soil pro. le. This paper reports glasshouse studies examining the fate of applied K fertiliser in key cropping soils of the inland Burnett region of south-east Queensland, and uses the resultant understanding of K dynamics to interpret results of field trials assessing the effectiveness of K application strategies in terms of K availability to crop plants. At similar concentrations of exchangeable K (K-exch), soil solution K concentrations and activity of K in the soil solution (AR(K)) varied by 6-7-fold between soil types. When K-exch arising from different rates of fertiliser application was expressed as a percentage of the effective cation exchange capacity (i.e. K saturation), there was evidence of greater selective adsorption of K on the exchange complex of Red Ferrosols than Black and Grey Vertosols or Brown Dermosols. Both soil solution K and AR(K) were much less responsive to increasing K-exch in the Black Vertosols; this is indicative of these soils having a high K buffer capacity (KBC). These contrasting properties have implications for the rate of diffusive supply of K to plant roots and the likely impact of K application strategies (banding v. broadcast and incorporation) on plant K uptake. Field studies investigating K application strategies (banding v. broadcasting) and the interaction with the degree of soil disturbance/mixing of different soil types are discussed in relation to K dynamics derived from glasshouse studies. Greater propensity to accumulate luxury K in crop biomass was observed in a Brown Ferrosol with a KBC lower than that of a Black Vertosol, consistent with more efficient diffusive supply to plant roots in the Ferrosol. This luxury K uptake, when combined with crops exhibiting low proportional removal of K in the harvested product (i.e. low K harvest index coarse grains and winter cereals) and residue retention, can lead to rapid re-development of stratified K profiles. There was clear evidence that some incorporation of K fertiliser into soil was required to facilitate root access and crop uptake, although there was no evidence of a need to incorporate K fertiliser any deeper than achieved by conventional disc tillage (i.e. 0.1-0.15 m). Recovery of fertiliser K applied in deep (0.25-0.3 m) bands in combination with N and P to facilitate root proliferation was quite poor in Red Ferrosols and Grey or Black Vertosols with moderate effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC, 25-35 cmol(+)/kg), was reasonable but not enough to overcome K deficiency in a Brown Dermosol (ECEC 11 cmol(+)/kg), but was quite good on a Black Vertosol (ECEC 50-60 cmol(+)/kg). Collectively, results suggest that frequent small applications of K fertiliser, preferably with some soil mixing, is an effective fertiliser application strategy on lighter clay soils with low KBC and an effective diffusive supply mechanism. Alternately, concentrated K bands and enhanced root proliferation around them may be a more effective strategy in Vertosol soils with high KBC and limited diffusive supply. Further studies to assess this hypothesis are needed.

A consensus genetic map of sorghum that integrates multiple component maps and high-throughput Diversity Array Technology (DArT) markers

Background: Sorghum genome mapping based on DNA markers began in the early 1990s and numerous genetic linkage maps of sorghum have been published in the last decade, based initially on RFLP markers with more recent maps including AFLPs and SSRs and very recently, Diversity Array Technology (DArT) markers. It is essential to integrate the rapidly growing body of genetic linkage data produced through DArT with the multiple genetic linkage maps for sorghum generated through other marker technologies. Here, we report on the colinearity of six independent sorghum component maps and on the integration of these component maps into a single reference resource that contains commonly utilized SSRs, AFLPs, and high-throughput DArT markers. Results: The six component maps were constructed using the MultiPoint software. The lengths of the resulting maps varied between 910 and 1528 cM. The order of the 498 markers that segregated in more than one population was highly consistent between the six individual mapping data sets. The framework consensus map was constructed using a "Neighbours" approach and contained 251 integrated bridge markers on the 10 sorghum chromosomes spanning 1355.4 cM with an average density of one marker every 5.4 cM, and were used for the projection of the remaining markers. In total, the sorghum consensus map consisted of a total of 1997 markers mapped to 2029 unique loci ( 1190 DArT loci and 839 other loci) spanning 1603.5 cM and with an average marker density of 1 marker/0.79 cM. In addition, 35 multicopy markers were identified. On average, each chromosome on the consensus map contained 203 markers of which 58.6% were DArT markers. Non-random patterns of DNA marker distribution were observed, with some clear marker-dense regions and some marker-rare regions. Conclusion: The final consensus map has allowed us to map a larger number of markers than possible in any individual map, to obtain a more complete coverage of the sorghum genome and to fill a number of gaps on individual maps. In addition to overall general consistency of marker order across individual component maps, good agreement in overall distances between common marker pairs across the component maps used in this study was determined, using a difference ratio calculation. The obtained consensus map can be used as a reference resource for genetic studies in different genetic backgrounds, in addition to providing a framework for transferring genetic information between different marker technologies and for integrating DArT markers with other genomic resources. DArT markers represent an affordable, high throughput marker system with great utility in molecular breeding programs, especially in crops such as sorghum where SNP arrays are not publicly available.

Can feral pig harvesting and co-ordinated control reduce damage to grain crops?

Commercial and recreational harvesting of pigs is often encouraged by pest managers because it is essentially a ‘free’ reduction in pest density. However, the reduction in numbers may provide minimal damage mitigation and may be inappropriately allocated in space and time. Additionally, more effective control (e.g. baiting) may not occur because of the incorrect perception that harvesting is effective or because pigs are valued for recreational use.

Field evaluation of spinosad as a grain protectant for stored wheat in Australia: efficacy against Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) and fate of residues in whole wheat and milling fractions

The potential of spinosad as a grain protectant for the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica, was investigated in a silo-scale trial on wheat stored in Victoria, Australia. Rhyzopertha dominica is a serious pest of stored grain, and its resistance to protectants and the fumigant phosphine is becoming more common. This trial follows earlier laboratory research showing that spinosad may be a useful pest management option for this species. Wheat (300 t) from the 2005 harvest was treated with spinosad 0.96 mg/kg plus chlorpyrifos-methyl 10 mg/kg in March 2006, and samples were collected at intervals during 7.5 month storage to determine efficacy and residues in wheat and milling fractions. Chlorpyrifos-methyl is already registered in Australia for control of several other pest species, and its low potency against R. dominica was confirmed in laboratory-treated wheat. Grain moisture content was stable at about 10%, but grain temperature ranged from 29.3°C in March to 14.0°C in August. Bioassays of all treated wheat samples over 7.5 months resulted in 100% adult mortality after 2 weeks exposure and no live progeny were produced. In addition, no live grain insects were detected during outload sampling after a 9 month storage. Spinosad and chlorpyrifos-methyl residues tended to decline during storage, and residues were higher in the bran layer than in either wholemeal or white flour. This field trial confirmed that spinosad was effective as a grain protectant targeting R. dominica.

Concentrates based on sorghum grain provide a basis for a finishing system for crossbred lambs

In parts of Australia, sorghum grain is a cheaper alternative to other cereal grains but its use and nutritive value in sheep feeding systems is not well understood. The aim of this work was to compare growth and carcass characteristics for crossbred lambs consuming several simple, sorghum-based diets. The treatments were: (1) whole sorghum grain, (2) whole sorghum grain + urea and ammonium sulfate, (3) cracked sorghum grain + urea and ammonium sulfate, (4) expanded sorghum grain + urea and ammonium sulfate, (5) whole sorghum grain + cottonseed meal, and (6) whole sorghum grain + whole cottonseed. Nine lambs were slaughtered initially to provide baseline carcass data and the remaining 339 lambs were gradually introduced to the concentrate diets over 14 days before being fed concentrates and wheaten hay ad libitum for 41, 56 or 76 days. Neither cracking nor expanding whole sorghum grain with added non-protein nitrogen (N) resulted in significantly (P > 0.05) increased final liveweight, growth rates or carcass weights for lambs, or in decreased days on feed to reach 18-kg carcass weight, although carcass fat depth was significantly (P < 0.05) increased compared with the whole sorghum plus non-protein N diet. However, expanding sorghum grain significantly (P < 0.05) reduced faecal starch concentrations compared with whole or cracked sorghum diets with added non-protein N (79 v. 189 g/kg DM after 59 days on feed). Lambs fed whole sorghum grain without an additional N source had significantly (P < 0.05) lower concentrate intake and required significantly (P < 0.05) more days on feed to reach a carcass weight of 18 kg than for all diets containing added N. These lambs also had significantly (P < 0.05) lower carcass weight and fat depth than for lambs consuming whole sorghum plus true protein diets. Substituting sources of true protein (cottonseed meal and whole cottonseed) for non-protein N (urea and ammonium sulfate) did not significantly (P > 0.05) affect concentrate intakes or carcass weights of lambs although carcass fat depth was significantly (P < 0.05) increased and the days to reach 18-kg carcass weight were significantly (P < 0.05) decreased for the whole sorghum plus cottonseed meal diet. In conclusion, processing sorghum grain by cracking or expanding did not significantly improve lamb performance. While providing an additional N source with sorghum grain significantly increased lamb performance, there was no benefit in final carcass weight of lambs from substituting sources of true protein for non-protein N.

Functional dynamics of the nitrogen balance of sorghum. II. Grain filling period.

Maintenance of green leaf area during grain filling can increase grain yield of sorghum grown under terminal water limitation. This 'stay-green' trait has been related to the nitrogen (N) supply-demand balance during grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of grain and N translocation rates from leaves and stem and explores effects of genotype and N stress on onset and rate of leaf senescence during the grain filling period. Three hybrids differing in potential height were grown at three levels of N supply under well-watered conditions. Vertical profiles of biomass, leaf area, and N% of leaves, stem and grain were measured at regular intervals. Weekly SPAD chlorophyll readings on main shoot leaves were correlated with observed specific leaf nitrogen (SLN) to derive seasonal patterns of leaf N content. For all hybrids, individual grain N demand was sink determined and was initially met through N translocation from the stem and rachis. Only if this was insufficient did leaf N translocation occur. Maximum N translocation rates from leaves and stem were dependent on their N status. However, the supply of N at canopy scale was also related to the amount of leaf area senescing at any one time. This supply-demand framework for N dynamics explained effects of N stress and genotype on the onset and rate of leaf senescence.

Functional dynamics of the nitrogen balance of sorghum: I. N demand of vegetative plant parts.

Stay-green, an important trait for grain yield of sorghum grown under water limitation, has been associated with a high leaf nitrogen content at the start of grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of leaves and stems and explores effects of N stress on the N balance of vegetative plant parts of three sorghum hybrids differing in potential crop height. The hybrids were grown under well-watered conditions at three levels of N supply. Vertical profiles of biomass and N% of leaves and stems, together with leaf size and number, and specific leaf nitrogen (SLN), were measured at regular intervals. The hybrids had similar minimum but different critical and maximum SLN, associated with differences in leaf size and N partitioning, the latter associated with differences in plant height. N demand of expanding new leaves was represented by critical SLN, and structural stem N demand by minimum stem N%. The fraction of N partitioned to leaf blades increased under N stress. A framework for N dynamics of leaves and stems is developed that captures effects of N stress and genotype on N partitioning and on critical and maximum SLN.

Simulating the evolution of glyphosate resistance in grains farming in northern Australia.

Background and Aims: The evolution of resistance to herbicides is a substantial problem in contemporary agriculture. Solutions to this problem generally consist of the use of practices to control the resistant population once it evolves, and/or to institute preventative measures before populations become resistant. Herbicide resistance evolves in populations over years or decades, so predicting the effectiveness of preventative strategies in particular relies on computational modelling approaches. While models of herbicide resistance already exist, none deals with the complex regional variability in the northern Australian sub-tropical grains farming region. For this reason, a new computer model was developed. Methods: The model consists of an age- and stage-structured population model of weeds, with an existing crop model used to simulate plant growth and competition, and extensions to the crop model added to simulate seed bank ecology and population genetics factors. Using awnless barnyard grass (Echinochloa colona) as a test case, the model was used to investigate the likely rate of evolution under conditions expected to produce high selection pressure. Key Results: Simulating continuous summer fallows with glyphosate used as the only means of weed control resulted in predicted resistant weed populations after approx. 15 years. Validation of the model against the paddock history for the first real-world glyphosate-resistant awnless barnyard grass population shows that the model predicted resistance evolution to within a few years of the real situation. Conclusions: This validation work shows that empirical validation of herbicide resistance models is problematic. However, the model simulates the complexities of sub-tropical grains farming in Australia well, and can be used to investigate, generate and improve glyphosate resistance prevention strategies.

Analysis and Modelling of the Effects of Water Stress on Maize Growth and Yield in Dryland Conditions.

It is essential to provide experimental evidence and reliable predictions of the effects of water stress on crop production in the drier, less predictable environments. A field experiment undertaken in southeast Queensland, Australia with three water regimes (fully irrigated, rainfed and irrigated until late canopy expansion followed by rainfed) was used to compare effects of water stress on crop production in two maize (Zea mays L.) cultivars (Pioneer 34N43 and Pioneer 31H50). Water stress affected growth and yield more in Pioneer 34N43 than in Pioneer 31H50. A crop model APSIM-Maize, after having been calibrated for the two cultivars, was used to simulate maize growth and development under water stress. The predictions on leaf area index (LAI) dynamics, biomass growth and grain yield under rain fed and irrigated followed by rain fed treatments was reasonable, indicating that stress indices used by APSIM-Maize produced appropriate adjustments to crop growth and development in response to water stress. This study shows that Pioneer 31H50 is less sensitive to water stress and thus a preferred cultivar in dryland conditions, and that it is feasible to provide sound predictions and risk assessment for crop production in drier, more variable conditions using the APSIM-Maize model.