64 resultados para ageing populations


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The project aimed to evaluate the innovative application of NIRS as a reliable, repeatable, and cost-effective method of ageing fish, using otoliths of Barramundi and Snapper as study species. Specific research questions included assessing how geographic and seasonal variation in otoliths affects NIRS predictive models of fish age, as well as how the NIR spectra of otoliths change in the short-term (i.e., <12 months) and long-term (i.e., historical otolith collections) and what effect this has on the predictive ability of NIRS models. The cost-effectiveness of using NIRS to supplement standard fish ageing methods was also evaluated using a hypothetical case study of Barramundi.

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Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .