Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Physiological basis of yield variation in response to row spacing and plant density of mungbean grown in subtropical environments

In this study, we investigated the extent and physiological bases of yield variation due to row spacing and plant density configuration in the mungbean Vigna radiata (L.) Wilczek variety “Crystal” grown in different subtropical environments. Field trials were conducted in six production environments; one rain-fed and one irrigated trial each at Biloela and Emerald, and one rain-fed trial each at Hermitage and Kingaroy sites in Queensland, Australia. In each trial, six combinations of spatial arrangement of plants, achieved through two inter-row spacings of 1 m or 0.9 m (wide row), 0.5 m or 0.3 m (narrow row), with three plant densities, 20, 30 and 40 plants/m2, were compared. The narrow row spacing resulted in 22% higher shoot dry matter and 14% more yield compared to the wide rows. The yield advantage of narrow rows ranged from 10% to 36% in the two irrigated and three rain-fed trials. However, yield loss of up to 10% was also recorded from narrow rows at Emerald where the crop suffered severe drought. Neither the effects of plant density, nor the interaction between plant density and row spacing, however, were significant in any trial. The yield advantage of narrow rows was related to 22% more intercepted radiation. In addition, simulations by the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator model, using site-specific agronomy, soil and weather information, suggested that narrow rows had proportionately greater use of soil water through transpiration, compared to evaporation resulting in higher yield per mm of soil water. The long-term simulation of yield probabilities over 123 years for the two row configurations showed that the mungbean crop planted in narrow rows could produce up to 30% higher grain yield compared to wide rows in 95% of the seasons.

Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt

Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20 through (i) reduced frost damage (~10 improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10 improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates.

Maize yield determination in the Northern Region: Hybrid by environment by management interactions

In Maize, as with most cereals, grain yield is mostly determined by the total grain number per unit area, which is highly related to the rate of crop growth during the critical period around silking. Management practices such as plant density or nitrogen fertilization can affect the growth of the crop during this period, and consequently the final grain yield. Across the Northern Region maize is grown under a large range of plant populations under high year-to-year rainfall variability. Clear guidelines on how to match hybrids and management across environments and expected seasonal condition, would allow growers to increase yields and profits while managing risks. The objective of this research was to screen the response of commercial maize hybrids differing in maturity and prolificity (i.e. multi or single cobbing) types for their efficiency in the allocation of biomass into grain.

Fertilising for yield and quality in sown grass pastures and forage crops

Sown pasture rundown and declining soil fertility for forage crops are too serious to ignore with losses in beef production of up to 50% across Queensland. The feasibility of using strategic applications of nitrogen (N) fertiliser to address these losses was assessed by analysing a series of scenarios using data drawn from published studies, local fertiliser trials and expert opinion. While N fertilser can dramatically increase productivity (growth, feed quality and beef production gains of over 200% in some scenarios), the estimated economic benefits, derived from paddock level enterprise budgets for a fattening operation, were much more modest. In the best-performing sown grass scenarios, average gross margins were doubled or tripled at the assumed fertiliser response rates, and internal rates of return of up to 11% were achieved. Using fertiliser on forage sorghum or oats was a much less attractive option and, under the paddock level analysis and assumptions used, forages struggled to be profitable even on fertile sites with no fertiliser input. The economics of nitrogen fertilising on grass pasture were sensitive to the assumed response rates in both pasture growth and liveweight gain. Consequently, targeted research is proposed to re-assess the responses used in this analysis, which are largely based on research 25-40 years ago when soils were generally more fertile and pastures less rundown.