Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

Queensland Spanner Crab Fishery: Commercial quota setting for June 2016 – May 2018

The Queensland (QLD) fishery for spanner crabs primarily lands live crab for export overseas, with gross landings valued around A$5 million per year. Quota setting rules are used to assess and adjust total allowable harvest (quota) around an agreed target harvest of 1631 t and capped at a maximum of 2000 t. The quota varies based on catch rate indicators from the commercial fishery and a fishery independent survey. Quota management applies only to ‘Managed Area A’ which includes waters between Rockhampton and the New South Wales (NSW) border. This report has been prepared to inform Fisheries Queensland (Department of Agriculture and Fisheries) and stakeholders of catch trends and the estimated quota of spanner crabs in Managed Area A for the forthcoming annual quota periods (1 June 2016–31 May 2018). The quota calculations followed the methodology developed by the crab fishery Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) between November 2007 and March 2008. The QLD total reported spanner crab harvest was 1170 t for the 2015 calendar year. In 2015, a total of 55 vessels were active in the QLD fishery, down from 262 vessels at the fishery’s peak activity in 1994. Recent spanner crab harvests from NSW waters average about 125 t per year, but fell to 80 t in 2014–2015. The spanner crab Managed Area A commercial standardised catch rate averaged 0.818 kg per net-lift in 2015, 22.5% below the target level of 1.043. Compared to 2014, mean catch rates in 2015 were marginally improved south of Fraser Island. The NSW–QLD survey catch rate in 2015 was 20.541 crabs per ground-line, 33% above the target level of 13.972. This represented an increase in survey catch rates of about four crabs per groundline, compared to the 2014 survey. The QLD spanner crab total allowable harvest (quota) was set at 1923 t in the 2012-13 and 2013-14 fishing years, 1777 t in 2014-15 and 1631 t in 2015-16. The results from the current analysis rules indicate that the quota for the next two fishing years be retained at the base quota of 1631 t.

Queensland Spanner Crab Fishery : Commercial quota setting for June 2015 – May 2016

The Australian fishery for spanner crabs is the largest in the world, with the larger Queensland (QLD) sector’s landings primarily exported live overseas and GVP valued ~A$5 million per year. Spanner crabs are unique in that they may live up to 15 years, significantly more than blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus) and mud crabs (Scylla serrata), the two other important crab species caught in Queensland. Spanner crabs are caught using a flat net called a dilly, on which the crabs becoming entangled via the swimming legs. Quota setting rules are used to assess and adjust total allowable harvest (quota) around an agreed target harvest of 1631 t and capped at a maximum of 2000 t. The quota varies based on catch rate indicators from the commercial fishery and a fishery-independent survey from the previous two years, compared to target reference points. Quota management applies only to ‘Managed Area A’ which includes waters between Rockhampton and the New South Wales (NSW) border. This report has been prepared to inform Fisheries Queensland (Department of Agriculture and Fisheries) and stakeholders of catch trends and the estimated quota of spanner crabs in Managed Area A for the forthcoming quota period (1 June 2015–31 May 2016). The quota calculations followed the methodology developed by the crab fishery Scientific Advisory Group (SAG) between November 2007 and March 2008. The total reported spanner crab harvest was 917 t for the 2014 calendar year, almost all of which was taken from Managed Area A. In 2014, a total of 59 vessels were active in the QLD fishery, the lowest number since the peak in 1994 of 262 vessels. Recent spanner crab harvests from NSW waters have been about 125 t per year. The spanner crab Managed Area A commercial standardised catch rate averaged 0.739 kg per net-lift in 2014, 24% below the target level of 1.043. Mean catch rates declined in the commercial fishery in 2014, although the magnitude of the decreases was highest in the area north of Fraser Island. The NSW–QLD survey catch rate in 2014 was 16.849 crabs per ground-line, 22% above the target level of 13.972. This represented a decrease in survey catch rates of 0.366 crabs per ground-line, compared to the 2013 survey. The Queensland spanner crab total allowable harvest (quota) was set at 1923 t in 2012 and 2013. In 2014, the quota was calculated at the base level of 1631 t. However, given that the 2012 fisheryindependent survey was not undertaken for financial reasons, stakeholders proposed that the total allowable commercial catch (TACC) be decreased to 1777 t; a level that was halfway between the 2012/13 quota of 1923 t and the recommended base quota of 1631 t. The results from the current analysis indicate that the quota for the 2015-2016 financial year be decreased from 1777 t to the base quota of 1631 t.

An Investigation of Environmental Conditions Experienced During the Life of High Value Wood Components and Products

Australian forest industries have a long history of export trade of a wide range of products from woodchips(for paper manufacturing), sandalwood (essential oils, carving and incense) to high value musical instruments, flooring and outdoor furniture. For the high value group, fluctuating environmental conditions brought on by changes in mperature and relative humidity, can lead to performance problems due to consequential swelling, shrinkage and/or distortion of the wood elements. A survey determined the types of value-added products exported, including species and dimensions packaging used and export markets. Data loggers were installed with shipments to monitor temperature and relative humidity conditions. These data were converted to timber equilibrium moisture content values to provide an indication of the environment that the wood elements would be acclimatising to. The results of the initial survey indicated that primary high value wood export products included guitars, flooring, decking and outdoor furniture. The destination markets were mainly located in the northern hemisphere, particularly the United States of America, China, Hong Kong, Europe including the United Kingdom), Japan, Korea and the Middle East. Other regions importing Australian-made wooden articles were south-east Asia, New Zealand and South Africa. Different timber species have differing rates of swelling and shrinkage, so the types of timber were also recorded during the survey. Results from this work determined that the major species were ash-type eucalypts from south-eastern Australia (commonly referred to in the market as Tasmanian oak), jarrah from Western Australia, spotted gum, hoop pine, white cypress, black butt, brush box and Sydney blue gum from Queensland and New South Wales. The environmental conditions data indicated that microclimates in shipping containers can fluctuate extensively during shipping. Conditions at the time of manufacturing were usually between 10 and 12% equilibrium moisture content, however conditions during shipping could range from 5 (very dry) to 20% (very humid). The packaging systems incorporated were reported to be efficient at protecting the wooden articles from damage during transit. The research highlighted the potential risk for wood components to ‘move’ in response to periods of drier or more humid conditions than those at the time of manufacturing, and the importance of engineering a packaging system that can account for the environmental conditions experienced in shipping containers. Examples of potential dimensional changes in wooden components were calculated based on published unit shrinkage data for key species and the climatic data returned from the logging equipment. The information highlighted the importance of good design to account for possible timber movement during shipping. A timber movement calculator was developed to allow designers to input component species, dimensions, site of manufacture and destination, to see validate their product design. This calculator forms part of the free interactive website www.timbers.com.au.