Predictive modelling to aid the regional-scale management of a vertebrate pest

Extensive resources are allocated to managing vertebrate pests, yet spatial understanding of pest threats, and how they respond to management, is limited at the regional scale where much decision-making is undertaken. We provide regional-scale spatial models and management guidance for European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in a 260,791 km(2) region in Australia by determining habitat suitability, habitat susceptibility and the effects of the primary rabbit management options (barrier fence, shooting and baiting and warren ripping) or changing predation or disease control levels. A participatory modelling approach was used to develop a Bayesian network which captured the main drivers of suitability and spread, which in turn was linked spatially to develop high resolution risk maps. Policy-makers, rabbit managers and technical experts were responsible for defining the questions the model needed to address, and for subsequently developing and parameterising the model. Habitat suitability was determined by conditions required for warren-building and by above-ground requirements, such as food and harbour, and habitat susceptibility by the distance from current distributions, habitat suitability, and the costs of traversing habitats of different quality. At least one-third of the region had a high probability of being highly suitable (support high rabbit densities), with the model supported by validation. Habitat susceptibility was largely restricted by the current known rabbit distribution. Warren ripping was the most effective control option as warrens were considered essential for rabbit persistence. The anticipated increase in disease resistance was predicted to increase the probability of moderately suitable habitat becoming highly suitable, but not increase the at-risk area. We demonstrate that it is possible to build spatial models to guide regional-level management of vertebrate pests which use the best available knowledge and capture fine spatial-scale processes.

Deriving optimal fishing effort for managing Australia's Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery with aggregated effort data

Deriving an estimate of optimal fishing effort or even an approximate estimate is very valuable for managing fisheries with multiple target species. The most challenging task associated with this is allocating effort to individual species when only the total effort is recorded. Spatial information on the distribution of each species within a fishery can be used to justify the allocations, but often such information is not available. To determine the long-term overall effort required to achieve maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and maximum economic yield (MEY), we consider three methods for allocating effort: (i) optimal allocation, which optimally allocates effort among target species; (ii) fixed proportions, which chooses proportions based on past catch data; and (iii) economic allocation, which splits effort based on the expected catch value of each species. Determining the overall fishing effort required to achieve these management objectives is a maximizing problem subject to constraints due to economic and social considerations. We illustrated the approaches using a case study of the Moreton Bay Prawn Trawl Fishery in Queensland (Australia). The results were consistent across the three methods. Importantly, our analysis demonstrated the optimal total effort was very sensitive to daily fishing costs—the effort ranged from 9500–11 500 to 6000–7000, 4000 and 2500 boat-days, using daily cost estimates of $0, $500, $750, and $950, respectively. The zero daily cost corresponds to the MSY, while a daily cost of $750 most closely represents the actual present fishing cost. Given the recent debate on which costs should be factored into the analyses for deriving MEY, our findings highlight the importance of including an appropriate cost function for practical management advice. The approaches developed here could be applied to other multispecies fisheries where only aggregated fishing effort data are recorded, as the literature on this type of modelling is sparse.

Overcoming barriers to the successful implementation of a classical biological control strategy for the exotic invasive weed Mikania micrantha in the Asia-Pacific region

Mikania micrantha (Asteraceae) commonly known as mikania, is a major invasive alien plant (IAP) in the tropical humid agricultural and forest zones of the Asia-Pacific region. This fast-growing Neotropical vine is able to smother plants in agricultural ecosystems, agroforestry and natural habitats, reducing productivity and biodiversity. Fungal pathogens were first investigated for the classical biological control of this weed in 1996. This resulted in the selection and screening of the highly host-specific and damaging rust pathogen, Puccinia spegazzinii (Pucciniales). It was first released in India and China in 2005/6, although it is not believed to have established. Since then, it has been released successfully in Taiwan, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Fiji and most recently Vanuatu. The rust has established and is spreading rapidly after applying lessons learned from the first releases on the best rust pathotype and release strategy. In PNG, direct monitoring of vegetation change has demonstrated that the rust is having a significant impact on M. micrantha, with no unpredicted non-target impacts. Despite this, the authorities in many countries where mikania is a problem remain cautious about releasing the rust. In Western Samoa, introduction of the rust was not pursued because of a conflict of interest, and the perception that mikania suppresses even worse weeds. For some, ‘pathophobia’ is still a major obstacle. In Indonesia, where insects for weed CBC have been introduced, pathogens will currently not be considered. In other countries such as Bhutan and Myanmar, there are no baseline data on the presence and impact of IAPs and, with no history of CBC, no institutional framework for implementing this approach. Malaysia has a well-developed framework, but capacity needs to be built in the country. Overall, it remains critical to have champions at decision making levels. Hence, even with an effective ‘off-the-shelf’ agent available, implementation of mikania CBC still requires significant inputs tailored to the countries’ specific needs.

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

Emerging literature on climate adaptation suggests the need for effective ways of engaging or activating communities and supporting community roles, coupled with whole-of-system approaches to understanding climate change and adaptation needs. We have developed and evaluated a participatory approach to elicit community and stakeholder understanding of climate change adaptation needs, and connect diverse community members and local office bearers towards potential action. The approach was trialed in a series of connected social-ecological systems along a transect from a rural area to the coast and islands of ecologically sensitive Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia. We conducted ‘climate roundtables’ in each of three areas along the transect, then a fourth roundtable reviewed and extended the results to the region as a whole. Influence diagrams produced through the process show how each climate variable forecast to affect this region (heat, storm, flood, sea-level rise, fire, drought) affects the natural environment, infrastructure, economic and social behaviour patterns, and psychosocial responses, and how sets of people, species and ecosystems are affected, and act, differentially. The participatory process proved effective as a way of building local empathy, a local knowledge base and empowering participants to join towards future climate adaptation action. Key principles are highlighted to assist in adapting the process for use elsewhere.

First complete genome sequence of a capsicum chlorosis tospovirus isolate from Australia with an unusually large S RNA intergenic region

The first complete genome sequence of capsicum chlorosis virus (CaCV) from Australia was determined using a combination of Illumina HiSeq RNA and Sanger sequencing technologies. Australian CaCV had a tripartite genome structure like other CaCV isolates. The large (L) RNA was 8913 nucleotides (nt) in length and contained a single open reading frame (ORF) of 8634 nt encoding a predicted RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) in the viral-complementary (vc) sense. The medium (M) and small (S) RNA segments were 4846 and 3944 nt in length, respectively, each containing two non-overlapping ORFs in ambisense orientation, separated by intergenic regions (IGR). The M segment contained ORFs encoding the predicted non-structural movement protein (NSm; 927 nt) and precursor of glycoproteins (GP; 3366 nt) in the viral sense (v) and vc strand, respectively, separated by a 449-nt IGR. The S segment coded for the predicted nucleocapsid (N) protein (828 nt) and non-structural suppressor of silencing protein (NSs; 1320 nt) in the vc and v strand, respectively. The S RNA contained an IGR of 1663 nt, being the largest IGR of all CaCV isolates sequenced so far. Comparison of the Australian CaCV genome with complete CaCV genome sequences from other geographic regions showed highest sequence identity with a Taiwanese isolate. Genome sequence comparisons and phylogeny of all available CaCV isolates provided evidence for at least two highly diverged groups of CaCV isolates that may warrant re-classification of AIT-Thailand and CP-China isolates as unique tospoviruses, separate from CaCV.

Understanding the barriers to the implementation of precision agriculture in the central region

There is an increasing requirement for more astute land resource management through efficiencies in agricultural inputs in a sugar cane production system. A precision agriculture (PA) approach can provide a pathway for a sustainable sugarcane production system. One of the impediments to the adoption of PA practices is access to paddock-scale mapping layers displaying variability in soil properties, crop growth and surface drainage. Variable rate application (VRA) of nutrients is an important component of PA. However, agronomic expertise within PA systems has fallen well behind significant advances in PA technologies. Generally, advisers in the sugar industry have a poor comprehension of the complex interaction of variables that contribute to within-paddock variations in crop growth. This is regarded as a significant impediment to the progression of PA in sugarcane and is one of the reasons for the poor adoption of VRA of nutrients in a PA approach to improved sugar cane production. This project therefore has established a number of key objectives which will contribute to the adoption of PA and the staged progression of VRA supported by relevant and practical agronomic expertise. These objectives include provision of base soils attribute mapping that can be determined using Veris 3100 Electrical Conductivity (EC) and digital elevation datasets using GPS mapping technology for a large sector of the central cane growing region using analysis of archived satellite imagery to determine the location and stability of yield patterns over time and in varying seasonal conditions on selected project study sites. They also include the stablishment of experiments to determine appropriate VRA nitrogen rates on various soil types subjected to extended anaerobic conditions, and the establishment of trials to determine nitrogen rates applicable to a declining yield potential associated with the aging of ratoons in the crop cycle. Preliminary analysis of archived yield estimation data indicates that yield patterns remain relatively stable overtime. Results also indicate the where there is considerable variability in EC values there is also significant variation in yield.

Risk assessment for Puccinia psidii becoming established in South Africa

Puccinia psidii, the causal agent of myrtle rust, was first recorded from Latin America more than 100 years ago. It occurs on many native species of Myrtaceae in Latin America and also infects non-native plantation-grown Eucalyptus species in the region. The pathogen has gradually spread to new areas including Australia and most recently South Africa. The aim of this study was to consider the susceptibility of selected Eucalyptus genotypes, particularly those of interest to South African forestry, to infection by P. psidii. In addition, risk maps were compiled based on suitable climatic conditions and the occurrence of potential susceptible tree species. This made it possible to identify the season when P. psidii would be most likely to infect and to define the geographic areas where the rust disease would be most likely to establish in South Africa. As expected, variation in susceptibility was observed between eucalypt genotypes tested. Importantly, species commonly planted in South Africa show good potential for yielding disease-tolerant material for future planting. Myrtle rust is predicted to be more common in spring and summer. Coastal areas, as well as areas in South Africa with subtropical climates, are more conducive to outbreaks of the pathogen.

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Diptera: Tephritidae), an invasive fruit fly in Australia that may have reached the extent of its spread due to environmental variables

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Schiner), the ‘mango fruit fly’, is a horticultural pest originating from the Papua New Guinea region. It was first detected in Australia on Cape York Peninsula in north Queensland in 1974 and had spread to Cairns by 1994 and Townsville by 1997. Bactrocera frauenfeldi has not been recorded further south since then despite its invasive potential, an absence of any controls and an abundance of hosts in southern areas. Analysis of cue-lure trapping data from 1997 to 2012 in relation to environmental variables shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Queensland correlates to locations with a minimum temperature for the coldest month >13.2°C, annual temperature range <19.3°C, mean temperature of the driest quarter >20.2°C, precipitation of the wettest month >268 mm, precipitation of the wettest quarter >697 mm, temperature seasonality <30.9°C (i.e. lower temperature variability) and areas with higher human population per square kilometre. Annual temperature range was the most important variable in predicting this species' distribution. Predictive distribution maps based on an uncorrelated subset of these variables reasonably reflected the current distribution of this species in northern Australia and predicted other areas in the world potentially at risk from invasion by this species. This analysis shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Australia is correlated to certain environmental variables that have most likely limited this species' spread southward in Queensland. This is of importance to Australian horticulture in demonstrating that B. frauenfeldi is unlikely to establish in horticultural production areas further south than Townsville.

Distribution and characterization of Poleroviruses affecting food legumes in Central/West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) region and Australia

During the past 15 years, surveys to identify virus diseases affecting cool-season food legume crops in Australia and 11 CWANA countries (Algeria, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Uzbekistan and Yemen) were conducted. More than 20,000 samples were collected and tested for the presence of 14 legume viruses by the tissue-blot immunoassay (TBIA) using a battery of antibodies, including the following Luteovirus monoclonal antibodies (McAbs): a broad-spectrum legume Luteovirus (5G4), BLRV, BWYV, SbDV and CpCSV. A total of 195 Luteovirus samples were selected for further testing by RT-PCR using 7 primers (one is degenerate, and can detect a wide range of Luteoviridae virus species and the other six are species-specific primers) at the Virology Laboratory, QDAF, Australia, during 2014. A total of 145 DNA fragments (represented 105 isolates) were sequenced. The following viruses were characterized based on molecular analysis: BLRV from Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Uzbekistan; SbDV from Australia, Syria and Uzbekistan; BWYV from Algeria, China, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Uzbekistan; CABYV from Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan and Uzbekistan; CpCSV from Algeria, Ethiopia, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia, and unknown Luteoviridae species from Algeria, Ethiopia, Morocco, Sudan, Uzbekistan and Yemen. This study has clearly shown that there are a number of Polerovirus species, in addition to BWYV, all can produce yellowing/stunting symptoms in pulses (e.g. CABYV, CpCSV, and other unknown Polerovirus species). Based on our knowledge this is the first report of CABYV affecting food legumes. Moreover, there was about 95% agreement between results obtained from serological analysis (TBIA) and molecular analysis for the detection of BLRV and SbDV. Whereas, TBIA results were not accurate when using CpCSV and BWYV McAbs . It seems that the McAbs for CpCSV and BWYV used in this study and those available worldwide, are not virus species specific. Both antibodies, reacted with other Polerovirus species (e.g. CABYV, and unknown Polerovirus). This highlights the need for more accurate characterization of existing antibodies and where necessary the development of better, virus-specific antibodies to enable their use for accurate diagnosis of Poleroviruses.

Maize yield determination in the Northern Region: Hybrid by environment by management interactions

In Maize, as with most cereals, grain yield is mostly determined by the total grain number per unit area, which is highly related to the rate of crop growth during the critical period around silking. Management practices such as plant density or nitrogen fertilization can affect the growth of the crop during this period, and consequently the final grain yield. Across the Northern Region maize is grown under a large range of plant populations under high year-to-year rainfall variability. Clear guidelines on how to match hybrids and management across environments and expected seasonal condition, would allow growers to increase yields and profits while managing risks. The objective of this research was to screen the response of commercial maize hybrids differing in maturity and prolificity (i.e. multi or single cobbing) types for their efficiency in the allocation of biomass into grain.

Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data

It is common to model the dynamics of fisheries using natural and fishing mortality rates estimated independently using two separate analyses. Fishing mortality is routinely estimated from widely available logbook data, whereas natural mortality estimations have often required more specific, less frequently available, data. However, in the case of the fishery for brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay, both fishing and natural mortality rates have been estimated from logbook data. The present work extended the fishing mortality model to incorporate an eco-physiological response of tiger prawn to temperature, and allowed recruitment timing to vary from year to year. These ecological characteristics of the dynamics of this fishery were ignored in the separate model that estimated natural mortality. Therefore, we propose to estimate both natural and fishing mortality rates within a single model using a consistent set of hypotheses. This approach was applied to Moreton Bay brown tiger prawn data collected between 1990 and 2010. Natural mortality was estimated by maximum likelihood to be equal to 0.032 ± 0.002 week−1, approximately 30% lower than the fixed value used in previous models of this fishery (0.045 week−1).

Use of phosphorus fertiliser for increased productivity of legume-based sown pastures in the Brigalow Belt region – a review

The Brigalow Belt bioregion of southern and central Queensland supports a large percentage of northern Australia's sown pastures and beef herd. The Brigalow soils were widely thought to have adequate phosphorus (P) for cropping, sown pastures and grazing animals, which has led to almost no use of P fertiliser on sown pastures. The majority of pastures established in the region were sown with tropical grasses only (i.e. no legumes were sown). Under grass-only pastures, nitrogen (N) mineralisation rates decline with time since establishment as N is 'tied-up' in soil organic matter. This process leads to a significant decline in pasture and animal productivity and is commonly called 'pasture rundown'. Incorporating pasture legumes has been identified as the best long-term solution to improve the productivity of rundown sown grass pastures. Pasture legumes require adequate P to grow well and fix large amounts of N to increase the productivity of rundown sown grass pastures. Producers and farm advisors have traditionally thought that P fertiliser is not cost-effective for legume-based improved pastures growing on inland areas of Queensland despite there being little, if any, data on production responses or their economic outcomes. Recent studies show large and increasing areas of low plant available soil P and large responses by pasture legumes to P fertiliser on Brigalow soils. The economic analysis in this scoping study indicates potential returns of 9–15% on extra funds invested from the application of P fertiliser, when establishing legumes into grass pastures on low P soils (i.e. lower than the critical P requirement of the legume grown). Higher returns of 12–24% may be possible when adding P fertiliser to already established grass/legume pastures on such soils. As these results suggest potential for significant returns from applying P fertiliser on legume pastures, it is recommended that research be conducted to better quantify the impacts of P fertiliser on productivity and profit. Research priorities include: quantifying the animal production and economic impact of fertilising legume-based pastures in the sub-tropics for currently used legumes; quantifying the comparative P requirements and responses of available legume varieties; understanding clay soil responses to applied P fertiliser; testing the P status of herds grazing in the Brigalow Belt; and quantifying the extent of other nutrient deficiencies (e.g. sulphur and potassium) for legume based pastures. Development and extension activities are required to demonstrate the commercial impacts of applying P fertiliser to legume based pastures.

Plants of Central Queensland: Identification and Uses of Native and Introduced Species

Conservation and sustainable productivity are vital issues for Australia. In order to manage vegetation well from an agricultural, recreational or conservation point of view, an understanding of individual plant species is important. Plants of Central Queensland provides a guide for identifying and understanding the plants of the region so that pastoralists and others can be better equipped to manage the vegetation resource of our grazing lands. Central Queensland straddles the Tropic of Capricorn, although many of the plants in the book will also be found outside this area, as shown by their distribution maps. The book provides information on the habit, distribution, foliage and fruits of 525 plant species. Informative notes highlighting declared, poisonous, weed and medicinal plants are included, and plants useful for bees and bush tucker are also noted. These are the most important plants you might see if you live in or travel through central Queensland. This book has an easy-to-read, non-botanical format, with helpful photographs and distribution maps that greatly aid anyone interested in the vegetation of central Queensland. It is based on a previous work of the same title but is greatly expanded, incorporating information on an additional 285 plant species.