Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Queensland The Cotton Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is often perceived as a solution to changes in water availability that have occurred within southern Australia as a result of changes to government policy in response to and exacerbated by climate change. This report examines the likely private, social and community costs and benefits associated with the establishment of a cotton industry in the Burdekin. The research undertaken covers three spatial scales by modelling the response of cotton and to climate change at the crop and farm scale and linking this to regional scale modelling of the economy. Modelling crop growth as either a standalone crop or as part of a farm enterprise provides the clearest picture of how yields and water use will be affected under climate change. The alternative to this is to undertake very costly trials in environmental chambers. For this reason it is critical that funding for model development especially for crops being crop in novel environments be seen as a high priority for climate change and adaptation studies. Crop level simulations not only provide information on how the crop responds to climate change, they also illustrate that that these responses are the result of complex interactions and cannot necessarily be derived from the climate information alone. These simulations showed that climate change would lead to decreased cotton yields in 2030 and 2050 without the affect of CO2 fertilisation. Without CO2 fertilisation, yields would be decreased by 3.2% and 17.8%. Including CO2 fertilisation increased yields initially by 5.9%, but these were reduced by 3.6% in 2050. This still represents a major offset and at least ameliorates the impact of climate change on yield. To cope with the decreased in-crop rainfall (4.5% by 2030 and 15.8% in 2050) and an initial increase in evapotranspiration of 2% in 2030 and

Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Improving Profitability to Industry Through the Identification and Management of 'tough' Fish Syndrome in Tropical Saddletail Snapper (Lutjanus Malabaricus)

OBJECTIVES: 1. To determine whether incomplete rigor mortis resolution and 'cold shock' play a role in development of tough fish syndrome (TFS) in tropical Saddletail snapper. 2. To identify links between TFS and specific physiological factors in tropical Saddletail snapper. 3. Communicate findings and recommendations to stakeholders and assist with implementation of any changes to fishing or handling practices required.

Natural host range, thrips and seed transmission of distinct Tobacco streak virus strains in Queensland, Australia

Diseases caused by Tobacco streak virus (TSV) have resulted in significant crop losses in sunflower and mung bean crops in Australia. Two genetically distinct strains from central Queensland, TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, have been previously described. They share only 81% total-genome nucleotide sequence identity and have distinct major alternative hosts, Parthenium hysterophorus (parthenium) and Verbesina encelioides (crownbeard). We developed and used strain-specific multiplex Polymerase chain reactions (PCRs) for the three RNA segments of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard to accurately characterise the strains naturally infecting 41 hosts species. Hosts included species from 11 plant families, including 12 species endemic to Australia. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was both a natural host of, and experimentally infected by TSV-parthenium but this infection combination resulted in non-viable seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. TSV-crownbeard was seed transmitted from naturally infected crownbeard at a rate of between 5% and 50% and was closely associated with the geographical distribution of crownbeard in central Queensland. TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard were also seed transmitted in experimentally infected ageratum (Ageratum houstonianum) at rates of up to 40% and 27%, respectively. The related subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus, was also seed transmitted at a rate of 18% in ageratum which is its major alternative host. Thrips species Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis were commonly found in flowers of TSV-affected crops and nearby weed hosts. Both species readily transmitted TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. The results are discussed in terms of how two genetically and biologically distinct TSV strains have similar life cycle strategies in the same environment.

Epidemiology and genetic diversity of Tobacco streak virus and related subgroup 1 ilarviruses

A quarter of Australia’s sunflower production is from the central highlands region of Queensland and is currently worth six million dollars ($AUD) annually. From the early 2000s a severe necrosis disorder of unknown aetiology was affecting large areas of sunflower crops in central Queensland, leading to annual losses of up to 20%. Other crops such as mung bean and cotton were also affected. This PhD study was undertaken to determine if the causal agent of the necrosis disorder was of viral origin and, if so, to characterise its genetic diversity, biology and disease cycle, and to develop effective control strategies. The research described in this thesis identified Tobacco streak virus (TSV; genus Ilarvirus, family Bromoviridae) as the causal agent of the previously unidentified necrosis disorder of sunflower in central Queensland. TSV was also the cause of commonly found diseases in a range of other crops in the same region including cotton, chickpea and mung bean. This was the first report from Australia of natural field infections of TSV from these four crops. TSV strains have previously been reported from other regions of Australia in several hosts based on serological and host range studies. In order to determine the relatedness of previously reported TSV strains with TSV from central Queensland, we characterised the genetic diversity of the known TSV strains from Australia. We identified two genetically distinct TSV strains from central Queensland and named them based on their major alternative hosts, TSV-parthenium from Parthenium hysterophorus and TSV-crownbeard from Verbesina encelioides. They share only 81 % total-genome nucleotide sequence identity. In addition to TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard from central Queensland, we also described the complete genomes of two other ilarvirus species. This proved that previously reported TSV strains, TSV-S isolated from strawberry and TSV-Ag from Ageratum houstonianum, were actually the first record of Strawberry necrotic shock virus from Australia, and a new subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus. Our results confirmed that the TSV strains found in central Queensland were not related to previously described strains from Australia and may represent new incursions. This is the first report of the genetic diversity within subgroup 1 ilarviruses from Australia. Based on field observations we hypothesised that parthenium and crownbeard were acting as symptomless hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, respectively. We developed strain-specific multiplex PCRs for the three RNA segments to accurately characterise the range of naturally infected hosts across central Queensland. Results described in this thesis show compelling evidence that parthenium and crownbeard are the major (symptomless) alternative hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. While both TSV strains had wide natural host ranges, the geographical distribution of each strain was closely associated with the respective distribution of their major alternative hosts. Both TSV strains were commonly found across large areas of central Queensland, but we only found strong evidence for the TSV-parthenium strain being associated with major disease outbreaks in nearby crops. The findings from this study demonstrate that both TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard have similar life cycles but some critical differences. We found both TSV strains to be highly seed transmitted from their respective major alternative hosts from naturally infected mother plants and survived in seed for more than 2 years. We conclusively demonstrated that both TSV strains were readily transmitted via virus-infected pollen taken from the major alternative hosts. This transmission was facilitated by the most commonly collected thrips species, Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis. These results illustrate the importance of seed transmission and efficient thrips vector species for the effective survival of these TSV strains in an often harsh environment and enables the rapid development of TSV disease epidemics in surrounding crops. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was naturally infected by, and an experimental host of TSV-parthenium. However, this infection combination resulted in non-viable crownbeard seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. Based on our field observations we hypothesised that there were differences in relative tolerance to TSV infection between different sunflower hybrids and that seasonal variation in disease levels was related to rainfall in the critical early crop stage. Results from our field trials conducted over multiple years conclusively demonstrated significant differences in tolerance to natural infections of TSV-parthenium in a wide range of sunflower hybrids. Glasshouse tests indicate the resistance to TSV-parthenium identified in the sunflower hybrids is also likely to be effective against TSV-crownbeard. We found a significant negative association between TSV disease incidence in sunflowers and accumulated rainfall in the months of March and April with increasing rainfall resulting in reduced levels of disease. Our results indicate that the use of tolerant sunflower germplasm will be a critical strategy to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower.

Exotic plant pests–a threat to the sustainability of Australia’s grains industry

Exotic plant pests (EPPs) threaten production, market access and sustainability of Australian plant production systems. For the grains industry there are over 600 identified EPPs of which 54 are considered high priority, posing a significant threat. Despite Australia’s geographical isolation and strong quarantine systems, the threat from EPPs has never been higher with the increasing levels of travel and trade, emphasising the need for improving our efforts in prevention, preparedness and surveillance for EPPs.

Field evaluation of tolerance to Tobacco streak virus in sunflower germplasm, and observations of seasonal disease spread

Strong statistical evidence was found for differences in tolerance to natural infections of Tobacco streak virus (TSV) in sunflower hybrids. Data from 470 plots involving 23 different sunflower hybrids tested in multiple trials over 5 years in Australia were analysed. Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Logistic Regression model for analysis provided: (i) a rigorous method for investigating the relative effects of hybrid, seasonal rainfall and proximity to inoculum source on the incidence of severe TSV disease; (ii) a natural method for estimating the probability distributions of disease incidence in different hybrids under historical rainfall conditions; and (iii) a method for undertaking all pairwise comparisons of disease incidence between hybrids whilst controlling the familywise error rate without any drastic reduction in statistical power. The tolerance identified in field trials was effective against the main TSV strain associated with disease outbreaks, TSV-parthenium. Glasshouse tests indicate this tolerance to also be effective against the other TSV strain found in central Queensland, TSV-crownbeard. The use of tolerant germplasm is critical to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower in this region. We found strong statistical evidence that rainfall during the early growing months of March and April had a negative effect on the incidence of severe infection with greatly reduced disease incidence in years that had high rainfall during this period.

Genetic diversity and epidemiology of Tobacco streak virus and related subgroup 1 Ilarviruses

A quarter of Australia’s sunflower production is from the central highlands region of Queensland and is currently worth six million dollars ($AUD) annually. From the early 2000s a severe necrosis disorder of unknown aetiology was affecting large areas of sunflower crops in central Queensland, leading to annual losses of up to 20%. Other crops such as mung bean and cotton were also affected. This PhD study was undertaken to determine if the causal agent of the necrosis disorder was of viral origin and, if so, to characterise its genetic diversity, biology and disease cycle, and to develop effective control strategies. The research described in this thesis identified Tobacco streak virus (TSV; genus Ilarvirus, family Bromoviridae) as the causal agent of the previously unidentified necrosis disorder of sunflower in central Queensland. TSV was also the cause of commonly found diseases in a range of other crops in the same region including cotton, chickpea and mung bean. This was the first report from Australia of natural field infections of TSV from these four crops. TSV strains have previously been reported from other regions of Australia in several hosts based on serological and host range studies. In order to determine the relatedness of previously reported TSV strains with TSV from central Queensland, we characterised the genetic diversity of the known TSV strains from Australia. We identified two genetically distinct TSV strains from central Queensland and named them based on their major alternative hosts, TSV-parthenium from Parthenium hysterophorus and TSV-crownbeard from Verbesina encelioides. They share only 81 % total-genome nucleotide sequence identity. In addition to TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard from central Queensland, we also described the complete genomes of two other ilarvirus species. This proved that previously reported TSV strains, TSV-S isolated from strawberry and TSV-Ag from Ageratum houstonianum, were actually the first record of Strawberry necrotic shock virus from Australia, and a new subgroup 1 ilarvirus, Ageratum latent virus. Our results confirmed that the TSV strains found in central Queensland were not related to previously described strains from Australia and may represent new incursions. This is the first report of the genetic diversity within subgroup 1 ilarviruses from Australia. Based on field observations we hypothesised that parthenium and crownbeard were acting as symptomless hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard, respectively. We developed strain-specific multiplex PCRs for the three RNA segments to accurately characterise the range of naturally infected hosts across central Queensland. Results described in this thesis show compelling evidence that parthenium and crownbeard are the major (symptomless) alternative hosts of TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard. While both TSV strains had wide natural host ranges, the geographical distribution of each strain was closely associated with the respective distribution of their major alternative hosts. Both TSV strains were commonly found across large areas of central Queensland, but we only found strong evidence for the TSV-parthenium strain being associated with major disease outbreaks in nearby crops. The findings from this study demonstrate that both TSV-parthenium and TSV-crownbeard have similar life cycles but some critical differences. We found both TSV strains to be highly seed transmitted from their respective major alternative hosts from naturally infected mother plants and survived in seed for more than 2 years. We conclusively demonstrated that both TSV strains were readily transmitted via virus-infected pollen taken from the major alternative hosts. This transmission was facilitated by the most commonly collected thrips species, Frankliniella schultzei and Microcephalothrips abdominalis. These results illustrate the importance of seed transmission and efficient thrips vector species for the effective survival of these TSV strains in an often harsh environment and enables the rapid development of TSV disease epidemics in surrounding crops. Results from field surveys and inoculation tests indicate that parthenium is a poor host of TSV-crownbeard. By contrast, crownbeard was naturally infected by, and an experimental host of TSV-parthenium. However, this infection combination resulted in non-viable crownbeard seed. These differences appear to be an effective biological barrier that largely restricts these two TSV strains to their respective major alternative hosts. Based on our field observations we hypothesised that there were differences in relative tolerance to TSV infection between different sunflower hybrids and that seasonal variation in disease levels was related to rainfall in the critical early crop stage. Results from our field trials conducted over multiple years conclusively demonstrated significant differences in tolerance to natural infections of TSV-parthenium in a wide range of sunflower hybrids. Glasshouse tests indicate the resistance to TSV-parthenium identified in the sunflower hybrids is also likely to be effective against TSV-crownbeard. We found a significant negative association between TSV disease incidence in sunflowers and accumulated rainfall in the months of March and April with increasing rainfall resulting in reduced levels of disease. Our results indicate that the use of tolerant sunflower germplasm will be a critical strategy to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower.