Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

Germination, emergence, and persistence of Sonchus oleraceus, a major crop weed in subtropical Australia.

Sonchus oleraceus (common sowthistle) is a dominant weed and has increased in prevalence in conservation cropping systems of the subtropical grain region of Australia. Four experiments were undertaken to define the environmental factors that favor its germination, emergence, and seed persistence. Seeds were germinated at constant temperatures between 5 and 35C and water potentials between 0 and -1.4 MPa. The maximum germination rate of 86-100% occurred at 0 and -0.2 MPa, irrespective of the temperature when exposed to light (12 h photoperiod light/dark), but the germination rate was reduced by 72% without light. At water potentials of -0.6 to -0.8 MPa, the germination rate was reduced substantially by higher temperatures; no seed germinated at a water potential >-1.0 MPa. Emergence and seed persistence were measured over 30 months following seed burial at 0 (surface), 1, 2, 5, and 10 cm depths in large pots that were buried in a south-eastern Queensland field. Seedlings emerged readily from the surface and 1 cm depth, with no emergence from below the 2 cm depth. The seedlings emerged during any season following rain but, predominantly, within 6 months of planting. Seed persistence was short-term on the soil surface, with 2% of seeds remaining after 6 months, but it increased with the burial depth, with 12% remaining after 30 months at 10 cm. Thus, a minimal seed burial depth with reduced tillage and increased surface soil water with stubble retention has favored the proliferation of this weed in any season in a subtropical environment. However, diligent management without seed replenishment will greatly reduce this weed problem within a short period.

Physiological Basis for Genotypic Variation in Tolerance to and Recovery from Pre-flowering Drought in Peanut.

Drought during the pre-flowering stage can increase yield of peanut. There is limited information on genotypic variation for tolerance to and recovery from pre-flowering drought (PFD) and more importantly the physiological traits underlying genotypic variation. The objectives of this study were to determine the effects of moisture stress during the pre-flowering phase on pod yield and to understand some of the physiological responses underlying genotypic variation in response to and recovery from PFD. A glasshouse and field experiments were conducted at Khon Kaen University, Thailand. The glasshouse experiment was a randomized complete block design consisting of two watering regimes, i.e. fully-irrigated control and 1/3 available soil water from emergence to 40 days after emergence followed by adequate water supply, and 12 peanut genotypes. The field experiment was a split-plot design with two watering regimes as main-plots, and 12 peanut genotypes as sub-plots. Measurements of N-2 fixation, leaf area (LA) were made in both experiments. In addition, root growth was measured in the glasshouse experiment. Imposition of PFD followed by recovery resulted in an average increase in yield of 24 % (range from 10 % to 57 %) and 12 % (range from 2 % to 51 %) in the field and glasshouse experiments, respectively. Significant genotypic variation for N-2 fixation, LA and root growth was also observed after recovery. The study revealed that recovery growth following release of PFD had a stronger influence on final yield than tolerance to water deficits during the PFD. A combination of N-2 fixation, LA and root growth accounted for a major portion of the genotypic variation in yield (r = 0.68-0.93) suggesting that these traits could be used as selection criteria for identifying genotypes with rapid recovery from PFD. A combined analysis of glasshouse and field experiments showed that LA and N-2 fixation during the recovery had low genotype x environment interaction indicating potential for using these traits for selecting genotypes in peanut improvement programs.

The role of tillage, fertiliser and forage species in sustaining dairying based on crops in southern Queensland 2. Double-crop and summer sole-crop systems.

Dairy farms located in the subtropical cereal belt of Australia rely on winter and summer cereal crops, rather than pastures, for their forage base. Crops are mostly established in tilled seedbeds and the system is vulnerable to fertility decline and water erosion, particularly over summer fallows. Field studies were conducted over 5 years on contrasting soil types, a Vertosol and Sodosol, in the 650-mm annual-rainfall zone to evaluate the benefits of a modified cropping program on forage productivity and the soil-resource base. Growing forage sorghum as a double-crop with oats increased total mean annual production over that of winter sole-crop systems by 40% and 100% on the Vertosol and Sodosol sites respectively. However, mean annual winter crop yield was halved and overall forage quality was lower. Ninety per cent of the variation in winter crop yield was attributable to fallow and in-crop rainfall. Replacing forage sorghum with the annual legume lablab reduced fertiliser nitrogen (N) requirements and increased forage N concentration, but reduced overall annual yield. Compared with sole-cropped oats, double-cropping reduced the risk of erosion by extending the duration of soil water deficits and increasing the time ground was under plant cover. When grown as a sole-crop, well fertilised forage sorghum achieved a mean annual cumulative yield of 9.64 and 6.05 t DM/ha on the Vertosol and Sodosol, respectively, being about twice that of sole-cropped oats. Forage sorghum established using zero-tillage practices and fertilised at 175 kg N/ha. crop achieved a significantly higher yield and forage N concentration than did the industry-standard forage sorghum (conventional tillage and 55 kg N/ha. crop) on the Vertosol but not on the Sodosol. On the Vertosol, mean annual yield increased from 5.65 to 9.64 t DM/ha (33 kg DM/kg N fertiliser applied above the base rate); the difference in the response between the two sites was attributed to soil type and fertiliser history. Changing both tillage practices and N-fertiliser rate had no affect on fallow water-storage efficiency but did improve fallow ground cover. When forage sorghum, grown as a sole crop, was replaced with lablab in 3 of the 5 years, overall forage N concentration increased significantly, and on the Vertosol, yield and soil nitrate-N reserves also increased significantly relative to industry-standard sorghum. All forage systems maintained or increased the concentration of soil nitrate-N (0-1.2-m soil layer) over the course of the study. Relative to sole-crop oats, alternative forage systems were generally beneficial to the concentration of surface-soil (0-0.1 m) organic carbon and systems that included sorghum showed most promise for increasing soil organic carbon concentration. We conclude that an emphasis on double-or summer sole-cropping rather than winter sole-cropping will advantage both farm productivity and the soil-resource base.

The role of tillage, fertiliser and forage species in sustaining dairying based on crops in southern Queensland 1. Winter-dominant forage systems.

Field studies were conducted over 5 years on two dairy farms in southern Queensland to evaluate the impacts of zero-tillage, nitrogen (N) fertiliser and legumes on a winter-dominant forage system based on raingrown oats. Oats was able to be successfully established using zero-tillage methods, with no yield penalties and potential benefits in stubble retention over the summer fallow. N fertiliser, applied at above industry-standard rates (140 vs. 55 kg/ha.crop) in the first 3 years, increased forage N concentration significantly and had residual effects on soil nitrate-N at both sites. At one site, crop yield was increased by 10 kg DM/ha. kg fertiliser N applied above industry-standard rates. The difference between sites in fertiliser response reflected contrasting soil and fertiliser history. There was no evidence that modifications to oats cropping practices (zero-tillage and increased N fertiliser) increased surface soil organic carbon (0-10 cm) in the time frame of the present study. When oats was substituted with annual legumes, there were benefits in improved forage N content of the oat crop immediately following, but legume yield was significantly inferior to oats. In contrast, the perennial legume Medicago sativa was competitive in biomass production and forage quality with oats at both sites and increased soil nitrate-N levels following termination. However, its contribution to winter forage was low at 10% of total production, compared with 40% for oats, and soil water reserves were significantly reduced at one site, which had an impact on the following oat production. The study demonstrated that productive grazed oat crops can be grown using zero tillage and that increased N fertiliser is more consistent in its effect on N concentration than on forage yield. A lucerne ley provides a strategy for raising soil nitrate-N concentration and increasing overall forage productivity, although winter forage production is reduced.

Processing Tomato Production in the Burdekin: Opportunities and Risks for Growers

The research undertaken here was in response to a decision by a major food producer in about 2009 to consider establishing processing tomato production in northern Australia. This was in response to a lack of water availability in the Goulburn Valley region following the extensive drought that continued until 2011. The high price of water and the uncertainty that went with it was important in making the decision to look at sites within Queensland. This presented an opportunity to develop a tomato production model for the varieties used in the processing industry and to use this as a case study along with rice and cotton production. Following some unsuccessful early trials and difficulties associated with the Global Financial Crisis, large scale studies by the food producer were abandoned. This report uses the data that was collected prior to this decision and contrasts the use of crop modelling with simpler climatic analyses that can be undertaken to investigate the impact of climate change on production systems. Crop modelling can make a significant contribution to our understanding of the impacts of climate variability and climate change because it harnesses the detailed understanding of physiology of the crop in a way that statistical or other analytical approaches cannot do. There is a high overhead, but given that trials are being conducted for a wide range of crops for a variety of purposes, breeding, fertiliser trials etc., it would appear to be profitable to link researchers with modelling expertise with those undertaking field trials. There are few more cost-effective approaches than modelling that can provide a pathway to understanding future climates and their impact on food production.

Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Australia: The Case of the Rice Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. This report aims to identify some of the possible economic consequences of developing a rice industry in the Burdekin region, while there is a reduction of output in the Riverina. Annual rice production in the Riverina peaked at 1.7 M tonnes, but the long-term outlook, given climate change impacts on that region and government water buy-backs, is more likely to be less than 800,000 tonnes. Growers are highly efficient water users by international standards, but the ability to offset an anticipated reduction in water availability through further efficiency gains is limited. In recent years growers in the Riverina have diversified their farms to a greater extent and secondary production systems include beef, sheep and wheat. Production in north Queensland is in its infancy, but a potentially suitable farming system has been developed by including rice within the sugarcane system without competition and in fact contributing to the production of sugar by increasing yields and controlling weeds. The economic outcomes are estimated a large scale, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (Tasman Global), scaled down to regional level. CGE models mimic the workings of the economy through a system of interdependent behavioural and accounting equations which are linked to an input-output database. When an economic shock or change is applied to a model, each of the markets adjusts according to the set of behavioural parameters which are underpinned by economic theory. In this study the model is driven by reducing production in the Riverina in accordance with relationships found between water availability and the production of rice and replacement by other crops and by increasing ride production in the Burdekin. Three scenarios were considered: • Scenario 1: Rice is grown using the fallow period between the last ratoon crop of sugarcane and the new planting. In this scenario there is no competition between rice and sugarcane • Scenario 2: Rice displaces sugarcane production • Scenario 3: Rice is grown on additional land and does not compete with sugarcane. Two time periods were used, 2030 and 2070, which are the conventional time points to consider climate change impacts. Under scenario 1, real economic output declines in the Riverina by $45 million in 2030 and by $139 million in 2070. This is only partially offset by the increased real economic output in the Burdekin of $35 million and $131 million respectively.

Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Queensland The Cotton Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is often perceived as a solution to changes in water availability that have occurred within southern Australia as a result of changes to government policy in response to and exacerbated by climate change. This report examines the likely private, social and community costs and benefits associated with the establishment of a cotton industry in the Burdekin. The research undertaken covers three spatial scales by modelling the response of cotton and to climate change at the crop and farm scale and linking this to regional scale modelling of the economy. Modelling crop growth as either a standalone crop or as part of a farm enterprise provides the clearest picture of how yields and water use will be affected under climate change. The alternative to this is to undertake very costly trials in environmental chambers. For this reason it is critical that funding for model development especially for crops being crop in novel environments be seen as a high priority for climate change and adaptation studies. Crop level simulations not only provide information on how the crop responds to climate change, they also illustrate that that these responses are the result of complex interactions and cannot necessarily be derived from the climate information alone. These simulations showed that climate change would lead to decreased cotton yields in 2030 and 2050 without the affect of CO2 fertilisation. Without CO2 fertilisation, yields would be decreased by 3.2% and 17.8%. Including CO2 fertilisation increased yields initially by 5.9%, but these were reduced by 3.6% in 2050. This still represents a major offset and at least ameliorates the impact of climate change on yield. To cope with the decreased in-crop rainfall (4.5% by 2030 and 15.8% in 2050) and an initial increase in evapotranspiration of 2% in 2030 and

The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States(1) and elsewhere(2) have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30 degrees C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms. The predominant effects of EDD in APSIM are associated with increased vapour pressure deficit, which contributes to water stress in two ways: by increasing demand for soil water to sustain a given rate of carbon assimilation, and by reducing future supply of soil water by raising transpiration rates. APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2 degrees C warming than to a 20% precipitation reduction. The results suggest a relatively minor role for direct heat stress on reproductive organs at present temperatures in this region. Effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration efficiency should reduce yield sensitivity to EDD in the coming decades, but at most by 25%.

A multisite managed environment facility for targeted trait and germplasm phenotyping

Field evaluation of germplasm for performance under water and heat stress is challenging. Field environments are variable and unpredictable, and genotype x environment interactions are difficult to interpret if environments are not well characterised. Numerous traits, genes and quantitative trait loci have been proposed for improving performance but few have been used in variety development. This reflects the limited capacity of commercial breeding companies to screen for these traits and the absence of validation in field environments relevant to breeding companies, and because little is known about the economic benefit of selecting one particular trait over another. The value of the proposed traits or genes is commonly not demonstrated in genetic backgrounds of value to breeding companies. To overcome this disconnection between physiological trait breeding and uptake by breeding companies, three field sites representing the main environment types encountered across the Australian wheatbelt were selected to form a set of managed environment facilities (MEFs). Each MEF manages soil moisture stress through irrigation, and the effects of heat stress through variable sowing dates. Field trials are monitored continuously for weather variables and changes in soil water and canopy temperature in selected probe genotypes, which aids in decisions guiding irrigation scheduling and sampling times. Protocols have been standardised for an essential core set of measurements so that phenotyping yield and other traits are consistent across sites and seasons. MEFs enable assessment of a large number of traits across multiple genetic backgrounds in relevant environments, determine relative trait value, and facilitate delivery of promising germplasm and high value traits into commercial breeding programs.

Classifying genotype by environment interactions for targeted germplasm deployment with a focus on Eucalyptus

A novel methodology for describing genotype by environment interactions estimated from multi-environment field trials is described and an empirical example using an extensive trial network of eucalypts is presented. The network of experiments containing 65 eucalypts was established in 38 replicated field trials across the tropics and subtropics of eastern Australia, with a selection of well-tested species used to provide a more detailed examination of productivity differentials across environmental gradients. By focusing on changes in species’ productivity across environmental gradients, the results are applicable for all species established across the range of environments evaluated in the trial network and simultaneously classify species and environments so that results may be applied across the landscape. The methodology developed was able to explain most (93 %) of the variation in the selected species relative changes in productivity across the various environmental variables examined. Responses were primarily regulated by changes in variables related to water availability and secondarily by temperature related variables. Clustering and ordination can identify groups of species with similar physiological responses to environment and may also guide the parameterisation and calibration of process based models of plant growth. Ordination was particularly useful in the identification of species with distinct environmental response patterns that would be useful as probes for extracting more information from future trials.

Interaction between production characteristics and postharvest performance and practices for fresh fruit

Significant interactions have been demonstrated between production factors and postharvest quality of fresh fruit. Accordingly, there is an attendant need for adaptive postharvest actions to modulate preharvest effects. The most significant preharvest effects appear to be mediated through mineral nutrition influences on the physical characteristics of fruit. Examples of specific influencers include fertilisers, water availability, rootstock, and crop load effects on fruit quality attributes such as skin colour, susceptibility to diseases and physiological disorders, and fruit nutritional composition. Also, rainfall before and during harvest can markedly affect fruit susceptibility to skin blemishes, physical damage, and diseases. Knowledge of preharvest-postharvest interactions can help determine the basis for variability in postharvest performance and thereby allow refinement of postharvest practices to minimise quality loss after harvest. This knowledge can be utilised in predictive management systems. Such systems can benefit from characterisation of fruit nutritional status, particularly minerals, several months before and/or at harvest to allow informed decisions on postharvest handling and marketing options. Other examples of proactive management practices include adjusting harvesting and packing systems to account for rainfall effects before and/or during harvest. Improved understanding of preharvest-postharvest interactions is contributing to the delivery of consistently higher quality of fruit to consumers. This paper focuses on the state of knowledge for sub-tropical and tropical fruits, in particular avocado and mango.

Interaction between production characteristics and postharvest performance and practices for fresh fruit

Significant interactions have been demonstrated between production factors and postharvest quality of fresh fruit. Accordingly, there is an attendant need for adaptive postharvest actions to modulate preharvest effects. The most significant preharvest effects appear to be mediated through mineral nutrition influences on the physical characteristics of fruit. Examples of specific influencers include fertilisers, water availability, rootstock, and crop load effects on fruit quality attributes such as skin colour, susceptibility to diseases and physiological disorders, and fruit nutritional composition. Also, rainfall before and during harvest can markedly affect fruit susceptibility to skin blemishes, physical damage, and diseases. Knowledge of preharvest-postharvest interactions can help determine the basis for variability in postharvest performance and thereby allow refinement of postharvest practices to minimise quality loss after harvest. This knowledge can be utilised in predictive management systems. Such systems can benefit from characterisation of fruit nutritional status, particularly minerals, several months before and/or at harvest to allow informed decisions on postharvest handling and marketing options. Other examples of proactive management practices include adjusting harvesting and packing systems to account for rainfall effects before and/or during harvest. Improved understanding of preharvest-postharvest interactions is contributing to the delivery of consistently higher quality of fruit to consumers. This paper focuses on the state of knowledge for sub-tropical and tropical fruits, in particular avocado and mango.

Improved management of key northern region weeds: diverse problems, diverse solutions

The cropping region of northern Australia has a diverse range of cropping systems and weed flora. A fallow phase is commonly required between crops to enable the accumulation of stored soil water in these farming systems dominated by reduced tillage. During the fallow phase, weed control is important and is heavily reliant on herbicides. The most commonly used herbicide has been glyphosate. As a result of over-reliance on glyphosate, there are now seven confirmed glyphosate-resistant weeds and several glyphosate-tolerant species common in the region. As a result, the control of summer fallow weeds is become more complex. This paper outlines project work investigating improved weed control for summer fallows in the northern cropping region. Areas of research include weed ecology, chemical and non-chemical tactics, glyphosate resistance and resistance surveys. The project also has an economic and extension component. As a result of our research we have a better understanding of the ecology of major northern weeds and spread of glyphosate resistance in the region. We have identified and defined alternative herbicide and non-chemical approaches for the effective control of summer fallow weeds and have extended our research effectively to industry.