An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

Natural Hendra Virus Infection in Flying-Foxes - Tissue Tropism and Risk Factors

Hendra virus (HeV) is a lethal zoonotic agent that emerged in 1994 in Australia. Pteropid bats (flying-foxes) are the natural reservoir. To date, HeV has spilled over from flying-foxes to horses on 51 known occasions, and from infected horses to close-contact humans on seven occasions. We undertook screening of archived bat tissues for HeV by reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Tissues were tested from 310 bats including 295 Pteropodiformes and 15 Vespertilioniformes. HeV was detected in 20 individual flying-foxes (6.4%) from various tissues including spleen, kidney, liver, lung, placenta and blood components. Detection was significantly higher in Pteropus Alecto and Pconspicillatus, identifying species as a risk factor for infection. Further, our findings indicate that HeV has a predilection for the spleen, suggesting this organ plays an important role in HeV infection. The lack of detections in the foetal tissues of HeV-positive females suggests that vertical transmission is not a regular mode of transmission in naturally infected flying-foxes, and that placental and foetal tissues are not a major source of infection for horses. A better understanding of HeV tissue tropism will strengthen management of the risk of spillover from flying-foxes to horses and ultimately humans.

Evaluation of tomato production systems at Bowen in mitigating the risk of fruit fly infestation: a systems approach for market access

Queensland fruit flies Bactrocera tryoni and B. neohumeralis are considered major quarantine pests of tomato, a major crop in the horticultural production district around Bowen, North Queensland, Australia. Preharvest and/or postharvest treatments are required to meet the market access requirements of both domestic and international trading partners. The suspension from use of dimethoate and fenthion, the two insecticides used for fruit fly control, has resulted in the loss of both pre and postharvest uses in fresh tomato. Research undertaken quantitatively at Bowen evaluated the effectiveness of pre-harvest production systems without specific fruit fly controls and postharvest mitigation measures in reducing the risk of fruit fly infestation in tomato. A district-wide trapping using cue-lure baited traps was undertaken to determine fruit fly seasonal patterns in relation to the cropping seasons. A total of 17,626 field-harvested and 11,755 pack-house tomatoes were sampled from ten farms over three cropping seasons (2006-2009). The fruit were incubated and examined for fruit fly infestation. No fruit fly infested fruit were recorded over the three seasons in either the field or the pack-house samples. Statistical analyses showed that upper infestation levels were extremely low (between 0.025 and 0.062%) at the 95% confidence level. The trap catches showed a seasonal pattern in fruit fly activity, with low numbers during the autumn and winter months, rising slightly in spring and peaking in summer. This seasonal pattern was similar over the four seasons. The main two species of fruit fly caught were B. tryoni and B. neohumeralis. Based on the results, it is clear that the risk of fruit fly infestation is extremely low under the current production systems in the Bowen region.