Climate Change - Risks and Opportunities for the Custard Apple Industry

Climate affects the custard apple industry in a range of ways through impacts on growth, disease risk, fruit set and industry location. Climates in Australia are influenced by surrounding oceans, and are very variable from year to year. However, amidst this variability there are significant trends, with Australian annual mean temperatures increasing since 1910, and particularly since 1950, with night-time temperatures increasing faster (0.11oC/decade) than daytime temperatures (0.06oC/decade). These temperature increases and other climate changes are expected to continue as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, with ongoing impacts on the custard apple industry. Five sites were chosen to assess possible future climate changes : Mareeba, Yeppoon, Bundaberg, Nambour and Lismore, these sites representing the extent of the majority of custard apple production in eastern Australia. A fifth site (Coffs Harbour) was selected as it is south of the current production regions. A mean warming of 0.8 to 1.2oC is anticipated over most of these sites by the year 2030, relative to 1990. This paper assesses the potential effects of climate change on custard apple production, and suggests strategies for adaptation.

Near infrared spectroscopy as a rapid non-invasive tool for agricultural and industrial process management with special reference to avocado and sandalwood industries

Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can play a vital role as a cost effective, rapid, non-invasive, reproducible diagnostic tool for many environmental management, agricultural and industrial waste water monitoring applications. In this paper we highlight the ability of NIRS technology to be used as a diagnostic tool in agricultural and environmental applications through the successful assessment of Fourier Transform NIRS to predict α santalol in sandalwood chip samples, and maturity of ‘Hass’ avocado fruit based on dry matter content. Presented at the Third International Conference on Challenges in Environmental Science & Engineering, CESE-2010. 26 September – 1 October 2010, The Sebel, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.

Test and develop sustainable and profitable grazing strategies to manage for rainfall variability

The Wambiana grazing trial started in 1997 to test and develop sustainable and profitable grazing strategies to manage for rainfall variability. It is important that this trial continue as the results are still relatively short-term relative to rainfall cycles and significant treatment changes are still occurring. This new proposal will maintain baseline treatments but will modify others based on trial learning’s to date. It builds on treatment differences and evidence collected over the last 12 years to deliver evidence-based guidelines and principles for sustainable and productive management. The trial also links to other projects modelling water quality, climate change, methane emissions and soil C sequestration on grazing lands.

Positioning the Cut Flower Industry to Respond to the Climate Change

Contribute to the current understanding of climate impacts on cut flower and foliage growing in Queensland.

GRDC Improving crop and farm water use efficiency in Australia

Project Objectives: 1. Improving yield and water use efficiency of the wheat crop, the backbone of the Australia grains industry, by better matching management, variety, soil and climate. The aim is thus increasing kg grain/ha per mm evapotranspiration and kg grain/ha per mm rain. 2. Improving land and water productivity and profit by better arrangement of the components of the cropping system. This involves better allocation of farm resources (land, water, machinery, labour) and identifying strategies that account for trade-offs between profit and risk. The aim is thus improving $/ha per year and mm rain in a risk framework.

Participatory adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change on mixed farms

The project uses participatory methods to engage primary producers and advisers in central Queensland, southern Queensland, and north east New South Wales on-farm trials and demonstrations to adapt mixed farming systems to changed climate conditions. The focus is adaptation to climate change but will support abatement of greenhouse gas emissions by building soil carbon, better managing soil nitrogen and soil organic carbon. Data will be collected and integrated with data from Round 1 of the Climate Change Research Program to extend industry understanding beyond a general awareness of ‘climate change’. Nitrous oxide and soil carbon data will help farmers/advisers understand the implications of climate change and develop adaptation strategies for a more sustainable, climate sensitive future.

RWUE4: Responding to Climate in the Central Queensland Irrigation Sector

Increasing the productivity of irrigation water use and reducing energy use in rural irrigation within the Central Highlands and Dawson-Callide irrigation districts.

Climate Q - Develop capacity to adapt to climate change in Queensland

Aims to build adaptive capacity within Qld's mixed farming (cropping/beef) sector.

Declining soil phosphorus reserves on sustainable agricultural production systems

PhD scholarship investigating the relative sensitivity of nitrogen fixation in adapted grain and ley legume species to low soil phosphorus.

Precision Agriculture and Remote Sensing Technologies in Central Queensland agricultural production systems

Demonstrate potential benefits of various Precision Agricultural technologies to Central Queensland farming community.

Maximising profitability with limited water in cotton farming systems

Diminishing water supply, changing weather patterns and pressure to enhance environmental flows are making it imperative to optimise water use efficiency (WUE) on cotton/grain farming systems. Growers are looking for better strategies to make the best use of limited water, but it is still not clear how to best use the available water at farm and field scale. This research project investigated the impact of management strategies to deal with limited water supplies on the yield and quality of irrigated cotton and wheat. The objectives were: (1) to develop irrigation management guidelines for the main irrigated crops on the Darling Downs for full- and deficitirrigation scenarios, taking into account the critical factors that affect irrigation decisions at the local level, (2) to quantify the evapotranspiration (ET) of Bollgard II cotton and wheat and its relationship to yield and quality under full- and deficit-irrigation scenarios, and (3) to increase industry awareness and education of farming systems practises for optimised economic water use efficiency.Objective (1) was addressed by (A) collaborating with ASPRU to develop the APSFarm model within APSIM to be able to perform multi-paddock simulations. APSFarm was then tested by conducting a case study at a farm near Dalby, and (B) conducting semi-structured interviews with individual farmers and crop consultants on the Darling Downs to document the strategies they are using to deal with limited water. Objective (2) was addressed by (A) building and installing 12 large (1 m x 1m x 1.5 m) weighing lysimeters to measure crop evapotranspiration. The lysimeters were installed at the Agri-Science Queensland research station at Kingsthorpe in November 2008, (B) conducting field experiments to measure crop evapotranspiration and crop development under four irrigation treatments, including dryland, deficit-irrigation, and full irrigation. Field experiments were conducted with cotton in 2007-08 and 2008-09, and with wheat in 2008 and 2009, and (C) collaborating with USQ on a PhD thesis to quantify the impact of crop stress on crop evapotranspiration and canopy temperature. Glasshouse experiments were conducted with wheat in 2008 and with cotton in 2008-09. Objective (3) was addressed by (A) conducting a field day at Kingsthorpe in 2009, which was attended by 80 participants, (B) presenting information in conferences in Australia and overseas, (D) presenting information at farmers meeting, (E) making presentations to crop consultants, and (F) preparing extension publications.As part of this project we contributed to the development of APSfarm, which has been successfully applied to evaluate the feasibility of practices at the whole-farm scale. From growers and crop consultants interviews we learned that there is a great variety of strategies, at different scales, that they are using to deal with limited water situation. These strategies will be summarised in the "e;Limited Water Guidelines for the Darling Downs"e; that we are currently preparing. As a result of this project, we now have a state-of-the-art lysimeter research facility (23 large weighing lysimeters) to be able to conduct replicated experiments to investigate daily water use of a variety of crops under different irrigation regimes and under different environments. Under this project, a series of field and glasshouse experiments were conducted with cotton and wheat, investigating aspects like: (A) quantification of daily and seasonal crop water use under nonstressed and stressed conditions, (B) impact of row configuration on crop water use, (C) impact of water stress on yield, evapotranspiration, crop vegetative and reproductive development, soil water extraction pattern, yield and yield quality. The information obtained from this project is now being used to develop web-based tools to help growers make planning and day-to-day irrigation decisions.

ACIAR Feasibility of farmers managing climate related crop production risk in India

Validation of new Indian seasonal climate forecasting products. In the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) kharif crops are heavily dependent on summer monsoon rains, where the timing and intensity of the rains affects crop yield. The majority of farms in AP are small and marginal, making them very vulnerable to yield reductions. Farmers also lack access to relevant information that might enable them to respond to seasonal conditions. Enabling farmers to utilise seasonal climate forecasting would allow them to respond to seasonal variability. To do this, farmers need a forecasting system that indicates a specific management strategy for the upcoming season, and effective and timely communication of the forecast information. Current agro-meteorological advisories in AP are issued on a bi-weekly basis, and they are relevant to an agro-climatic zone scale which may not be sufficiently relevant at a village level. Also, the information in the advisories may not be necessarily packaged in way relevant to cropping decisions by farmers. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the skill of seasonal climate forecasts to be issued for the 2008 monsoon season, to assess crop management options in response to seasonal scenarios that capture the range of seasonal climatic variability, to develop and evaluate options for effective communication and adoption of climate forecasts and agricultural advisories, and to synthesise and report on options for future research investments into seasonal climate forecasting.

AG15 (Sustainable Agricultural State-level Investment Program) natural resource management extension in irrigated cotton and grain

Natural Resource Management project developing reources and supporting best practice management for irrigated cotton and grain growers in Queensland.

A multi-field bio-economic model of irrigated grain-cotton farming systems.

We present a participatory modelling framework that integrates information from interviews and discussions with farmers and consultants, with dynamic bio-economic models to answer complex questions on the allocation of limited resources at the farm business level. Interviews and discussions with farmers were used to: describe the farm business; identify relevant research questions; identify potential solutions; and discuss and learn from the whole-farm simulations. The simulations are done using a whole-farm, multi-field configuration of APSIM (APSFarm). APSFarm results were validated against farmers' experience. Once the model was accepted by the participating farmers as a fair representation of their farm business, the model was used to explore changes in the tactical or strategic management of the farm and results were then discussed to identify feasible options for improvement. Here we describe the modelling framework and present an example of the application of integrative whole farm system tools to answer relevant questions from an irrigated farm business case study near Dalby (151.27E - 27.17S), Queensland, Australia. Results indicated that even though cotton crops generates more farm income per hectare a more diversified rotation with less cotton would be relatively more profitable, with no increase in risk, as a more cotton dominated traditional rotation. Results are discussed in terms of the benefits and constraints from developing and applying more integrative approaches to represent farm businesses and their management in participatory research projects with the aim of designing more profitable and sustainable irrigated farming systems.

The intrinsic plasticity of farm businesses and their resilience to change. An Australian example.

This paper examines the idea that plasticity in farm management introduces resilience to change and allows farm businesses to perform when operating in highly variable environments. We also argue for the need to develop and apply more integrative assessments of farm performance that combine the use of modelling tools with deliberative processes involving farmers and researchers in a co-learning process, to more effectively identify and implement more productive and resilient farm businesses. In a plastic farming system, farm management is highly contingent on environmental conditions. In plastic farming systems farm managers constantly vary crops and inputs based on the availability of limited and variable resources (e.g. land, water, finances, labour, machinery, etc.), and signals from its operating environment (e.g. climate, markets), with the objective of maximising a number of, often competing, objectives (e.g. maximise profits, minimise risks, etc.). In contrast in more rigid farming systems farm management is more calendar driven and relatively fixed sequences of crops are regularly followed over time and across the farm. Here we describe the application of a whole farm simulation model to (i) compare, in silico, the sensitivity of two farming systems designs of contrasting levels of plasticity, operating in two contrasting environments, when exposed to a stressor in the form of climate change scenarios;(ii) investigate the presence of interactions and feedbacks at the field and farm levels capable of modifying the intensity and direction of the responses to climate signals; and (iii) discuss the need for the development and application of more integrative assessments in the analysis of impacts and adaptation options to climate change. In both environments, the more plastic farm management strategy had higher median profits and was less risky for the baseline and less intensive climate change scenarios (2030). However, for the more severe climate change scenarios (2070), the benefit of plastic strategies tended to disappear. These results suggest that, to a point, farming systems having higher levels of plasticity would enable farmers to more effectively respond to climate shifts, thus ensuring the economic viability of the farm business. Though, as the intensity of the stress increases (e.g. 2070 climate change scenario) more significant changes in the farming system might be required to adapt. We also found that in the case studies analysed here, most of the impacts from the climate change scenarios on farm profit and economic risk originated from important reductions in cropping intensity and changes in crop mix rather than from changes in the yields of individual crops. Changes in cropping intensity and crop mix were explained by the combination of reductions in the number of sowing opportunities around critical times in the cropping calendar, and to operational constraints at the whole farm level i.e. limited work capacity in an environment having fewer and more concentrated sowing opportunities. This indicates that indirect impacts from shifts in climate on farm operations can be more important than direct impacts from climate on the yield of individual crops. The results suggest that due to the complexity of farm businesses, impact assessments and opportunities for adaptation to climate change might also need to be pursued at higher integration levels than the crop or the field. We conclude that plasticity can be a desirable characteristic in farming systems operating in highly variable environments, and that integrated whole farm systems analyses of impacts and adaptation to climate change are required to identify important interactions between farm management decision rules, availability of resources, and farmer's preference.