Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of water quality interventions in South-East Queensland

The focus of this article is on the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies to reduce pollution loads and improve water quality in South-East Queensland. Scenarios were developed about the types of catchment interventions that could be considered, and the resulting changes in water quality indicators that may result. Once these catchment scenarios were modelled, the range of expected outcomes was assessed and the costs of mitigation interventions were estimated. Strategies considered include point and non-point source interventions. Predicted reductions in pollution levels were calculated for each action based on the expected population growth. The cost of the interventions included the full investment and annual running costs as well as planned public investment by the state agencies. Cost-effectiveness of strategies is likely to vary according to whether suspended sediments, nitrogen or phosphorus loads are being targeted.

The process for implementation of a Quality Management System within a multi-functional cereal laboratory

The intent of this study was to design, document and implement a Quality Management System (QMS) into a laboratory that incorporated both research and development (R&D) and routine analytical activities. In addition, it was necessary for the QMS to be easily and efficiently maintained to: (a) provide documented evidence that would validate the system's compliance with a certifiable standard, (b) fit the purpose of the laboratory, (c) accommodate prevailing government policies and standards, and (d) promote positive outcomes for the laboratory through documentation and verification of the procedures and methodologies implemented. Initially, a matrix was developed that documented the standards' requirements and the necessary steps to be made to meet those requirements. The matrix provided a check mechanism on the progression of the system's development. In addition, it was later utilised in the Quality Manual as a reference tool for the location of full procedures documented elsewhere in the system. The necessary documentation to build and monitor the system consisted of a series of manuals along with forms that provided auditable evidence of the workings of the QMS. Quality Management (QM), in one form or another, has been in existence since the early 1900's. However, the question still remains: is it a good thing or just a bugbear? Many of the older style systems failed because they were designed by non-users, fiercely regulatory, restrictive and generally deemed to be an imposition. It is now considered important to foster a sense of ownership of the system by the people who use the system. The system's design must be tailored to best fit the purpose of the operations of the facility if maximum benefits to the organisation are to be gained.

Runoff, sediment loss and water quality from forest roads in a southeast Queensland coastal plain Pinus plantation

Runoff and sediment loss from forest roads were monitored for a two-year period in a Pinus plantation in southeast Queensland. Two classes of road were investigated: a gravelled road, which is used as a primary daily haulage route for the logging area, and an ungravelled road, which provides the main access route for individual logging compartments and is intensively used as a haulage route only during the harvest of these areas (approximately every 30 years). Both roads were subjected to routine traffic loads and maintenance during the study. Surface runoff in response to natural rainfall was measured and samples taken for the determination of sediment and nutrient (total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon and total iron) loads from each road. Results revealed that the mean runoff coefficient (runoff depth/rainfall depth) was consistently higher from the gravelled road plot with 0.57, as compared to the ungravelled road with 0.38. Total sediment loss over the two-year period was greatest from the gravelled road plot at 5.7 t km−1 compared to the ungravelled road plot with 3.9 t km−1. Suspended solids contributed 86% of the total sediment loss from the gravelled road, and 72% from the ungravelled road over the two years. Nitrogen loads from the two roads were both relatively constant throughout the study, and averaged 5.2 and 2.9 kg km−1 from the gravelled and ungravelled road, respectively. Mean annual phosphorus loads were 0.6 kg km−1 from the gravelled road and 0.2 kg km−1 from the ungravelled road. Organic carbon and total iron loads increased in the second year of the study, which was a much wetter year, and are thought to reflect the breakdown of organic matter in roadside drains and increased sediment generation, respectively. When road and drain maintenance (grading) was performed runoff and sediment loss were increased from both road types. Additionally, the breakdown of the gravel road base due to high traffic intensity during wet conditions resulted in the formation of deep (10 cm) ruts which increased erosion. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP):Road model was used to compare predicted to observed runoff and sediment loss from the two road classes investigated. For individual rainfall events, WEPP:Road predicted output showed strong agreement with observed values of runoff and sediment loss. WEPP:Road predictions for annual sediment loss from the entire forestry road network in the study area also showed reasonable agreement with the extrapolated observed values.

Selecting for increased barley grain size

In this study, 120–144 commercial varieties and breeding lines were assessed for grain size attributes including plump grain (>2.8 mm) and retention (>2.5 mm+>2.8 mm). Grain samples were produced from replicated trials at 25 sites across four years. Climatic conditions varied between years as well as between sites. Several of the trial sites were irrigated while the remaining were produced under dryland conditions. A number of the dryland sites suffered severe drought stress. The grain size data was analysed for genetic (G), environmental (E) and genotype by environment (G×E) interactions. All analyses included maturity as a covariate. The genetic effect on grain size was greater than environmental or maturity effects despite some sites suffering terminal moisture stress. The model was used to calculate heritability values for each site used in the study. These values ranged from 89 to 98% for plump grain and 88 to 96% for retention. The results demonstrated that removing the sources of non-heritable variation, such as maturity and field effects, can improve genetic estimates of the retention and plump grain fractions. By partitioning all variance components, and thereby having more robust estimates of genetic differences, plant breeders can have greater confidence in selecting barley genotypes which maintain large, stable grain size across a range of environments.

Measurement of genetic and environmental variation in barley (Hordeum vulgare) grain hardness

In this study, we assessed a broad range of barley breeding lines and commercial varieties by three hardness methods (two particle size methods and one crush resistance method (SKCS—Single-Kernel Characterization System), grown at multiple sites to see if there was variation in barley hardness and if that variation was genetic or environmentally controlled. We also developed near-infrared reflectance (NIR) calibrations for these three hardness methods to ascertain if NIR technology was suitable for rapid screening of breeding lines or specific populations. In addition, we used this data to identify genetic regions that may be associated with hardness. There were significant (p<0.05) genetic effects for the three hardness methods. There were also environmental effects, possibly linked to the effect of protein on hardness, i.e. increasing protein resulted in harder grain. Heritability values were calculated at >85% for all methods. The NIR calibrations, with R2 values of >90%, had Standard Error of Prediction values of 0.90, 72 and 4.0, respectively, for the three hardness methods. These equations were used to predict hardness values of a mapping population which resulted in genetic markers being identified on all chromosomes but chromosomes 2H, 3H, 5H, 6H and 7H had markers with significant LOD scores. The two regions on 5H were on the distal end of both the long and short arms. The region that showed significant LOD score was on the long arm. However, the region on the short arm associated with the hardness (hordoindoline) genes did not have significant LOD scores. The results indicate that barley hardness is influenced by both genotype and environment and that the trait is heritable, which would allow breeders to develop very hard or soft varieties if required. In addition, NIR was shown to be a reliable tool for screening for hardness. While the data set used in this study has a relatively low variation in hardness, the tools developed could be applied to breeding populations that have large variation in barley grain hardness.

Impact of resistance on the efficacy of binary combinations of spinosad, chlorpyrifos-methyl and s-methoprene against five stored-grain beetles

Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the efficacy of spinosad (a biopesticide), chlorpyrifos-methyl (an organophosphorus compound (OP)) and s-methoprene (a juvenile hormone analogue) applied alone and in binary combinations against five stored-grain beetles in wheat. There were three strains of Rhyzopertha dominica, and one strain each of Sitophilus oryzae, Tribolium castaneum, Oryzaephilus surinamensis and Cryptolestes ferrugineus. These strains were chosen to represent a range of possible resistant genotypes, exhibiting resistance to organophosphates, pyrethroids or methoprene. Treatments were applied at rates that are registered or likely to be registered in Australia. Adults were exposed to freshly treated wheat for 2 weeks, and the effects of treatments on mortality and reproduction were determined. No single protectant or protectant combination controlled all insect strains, based on the criterion of >99% reduction in the number of live F1 adults relative to the control. The most effective combinations were spinosad at 1 mg kg-1+chlorpyrifos-methyl at 10 mg kg-1 which controlled all strains except for OP-resistant O. surinamensis, and chlorpyrifos-methyl at 10 mg kg-1+s-methoprene at 0.6 mg kg-1 which controlled all strains except for methoprene-resistant R. dominica. The results of this study demonstrate the difficulty in Australia, and potentially other countries which use protectants, of finding protectant treatments to control a broad range of pest species in the face of resistance development.

Subsoil constraints to grain production in the cropping soils of the north-eastern region of Australia: an overview

In dryland agricultural systems of the subtropical, semi-arid region of north-eastern Australia, water is the most limiting resource. Crop productivity depends on the efficient use of rainfall and available water stored in the soil during fallow. Agronomic management practices including a period of fallow, stubble retention, and reduced tillage enhance reserves of soil water. However, access to stored water in these soils may be restricted by the presence of growth-limiting conditions in the rooting zone of the crop. These have been termed as subsoil constraints. Subsoil constraints may include compacted or gravel layers (physical), sodicity, salinity, acidity, nutrient deficiencies, presence of toxic elements (chemical) and low microbial activity (biological). Several of these constraints may occur together in some soils. Farmers have often not been able to obtain the potential yield determined by their prevailing climatic conditions in the marginal rainfall areas of the northern grains region. In the past, the adoption of soil management practices had been largely restricted to the top 100 mm soil layer. Exploitation of the subsoil as a source of water and nutrients has largely been overlooked. The key towards realising potential yields would be to gain better understanding of subsoils and their limitations, then develop options to manage them practically and economically. Due to the complex nature of the causal factors of these constraints, efforts are required for a combination of management approaches rather than individual options, with the aim to combat these constraints for sustainable crop production, managing natural resources and avoiding environmental damage.

Achievements in forest tree improvement in Australia and New Zealand 6: Genetic improvement and conservation of Araucaria cunninghamii in Queensland

Araucaria cunninghamii (hoop pine) typically occurs as an emergent tree over subtropical and tropical rainforests, in a discontinuous distribution that extends from West Irian Jaya at about 0°30'S, through the highlands of Indonesian New Guinea and Papua New Guinea, along the east coast of Australia from 11°39'S in Queensland to 30°35'S in northern New South Wales. Plantations established in Queensland since the 1920s now total about 44000 ha, and constitute the primary source for the continuing supply of hoop pine quality timber and pulpwood, with a sustainable harvest exceeding 440 000 m3 y-1. Establishment of these managed plantations allowed logging of all native forests of Araucaria species (hoop pine and bunya pine, A. bidwillii) on state-owned lands to cease in the late 1980s, and the preservation of large areas of araucarian forest types within a system of state-owned and managed reserves. The successful plantation program with this species has been strongly supported by genetic improvement activities since the late 1940s - through knowledge of provenance variation and reproductive biology, the provision of reliable sources of improved seed, and the capture of substantial genetic gains in traits of economic importance (for example growth, stem straightness, internode length and spiral grain). As such, hoop pine is one of the few tropical tree species that, for more than half a century, has been the subject of continuous genetic improvement. The history of commercialisation and genetic improvement of hoop pine provides an excellent example of the dual economic and conservation benefits that may be obtained in tropical tree species through the integration of gene conservation and genetic improvement with commercial plantation development. This paper outlines the natural distribution and reproductive biology of hoop pine, describes the major achievements of the genetic improvement program in Queensland over the past 50+ y, summarises current understanding of the genetic variation and control of key selection traits, and outlines the means by which genetic diversity in the species is being conserved.

Identification of QTL for sugar-related traits in a sweet x grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) recombinant inbred population

QTL for stem sugar-related and other agronomic traits were identified in a converted sweet (R9188) × grain (R9403463-2-1) sorghum population. QTL analyses were conducted using phenotypic data for 11 traits measured in two field experiments and a genetic map comprising 228 SSR and AFLP markers grouped into 16 linkage groups, of which 11 could be assigned to the 10 sorghum chromosomes (SBI-01 to SBI-10). QTL were identified for all traits and were generally co-located to five locations (SBI-01, SBI-03, SBI-05, SBI-06 and SBI-10). QTL alleles from R9188 were detected for increased sucrose content and sugar content on SBI-01, SBI-05 and SBI-06. R9188 also contributed QTL alleles for increased Brix on SBI-05 and SBI-06, and increased sugar content on SBI-03. QTL alleles from R9403463-2-1 were found for increased sucrose content and sucrose yield on SBI-10, and increased glucose content on SBI-07. QTL alleles for increased height, later flowering and greater total dry matter yield were located on SBI-01 of R9403463-2-1, and SBI-06 of R9188. QTL alleles for increased grain yield from both R9403463-2-1 and R9188 were found on SBI-03. As an increase in stem sugars is an important objective in sweet sorghum breeding, the QTL identified in this study could be further investigated for use in marker-assisted selection of sweet sorghum.

An assessment of the genetic relationship between sweet and grain sorghums, within Sorghum bicolor ssp. bicolor (L.) Moench, using AFLP markers

Compared to grain sorghums, sweet sorghums typically have lower grain yield and thick, tall stalks which accumulate high levels of sugar (sucrose, fructose and glucose). Unlike commercial grain sorghum (S. bicolor ssp. bicolor) cultivars, which are usually F1 hybrids, commercial sweet sorghums were selected as wild accessions or have undergone limited plant breeding. Although all sweet sorghums are classified within S. bicolor ssp. bicolor, their genetic relationship with grain sorghums is yet to be investigated. Ninety-five genotypes, including 31 sweet sorghums and 64 grain sorghums, representing all five races within the subspecies bicolor, were screened with 277 polymorphic amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. Cluster analysis separated older sweet sorghum accessions (collected in mid 1800s) from those developed and released during the early to mid 1900s. These groups were emphasised in a principle component analysis of the results such that sweet sorghum lines were largely distinguished from the others, particularly by a group of markers located on sorghum chromosomes SBI-08 and SBI-10. Other studies have shown that QTL and ESTs for sugar-related traits, as well as for height and anthesis, map to SBI-10. Although the clusters obtained did not group clearly on the basis of racial classification, the sweet sorghum lines often cluster with grain sorghums of similar racial origin thus suggesting that sweet sorghum is of polyphyletic origin within S. bicolor ssp. bicolor.

Gene interactions constrain the course of evolution of phosphine resistance in the lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica

Phosphine, a widely used fumigant for the protection of stored grain from insect pests, kills organisms indirectly by inducing oxidative stress. High levels of heritable resistance to phosphine in the insect pest of stored grain, Rhyzopertha dominica have been detected in Asia, Australia and South America. In order to understand the evolution of phosphine resistance and to isolate the responsible genes, we have undertaken genetic linkage analysis of fully sensitive (QRD14), moderately resistant (QRD369) and highly resistant (QRD569) strains of R. dominica collected in Australia. We previously determined that two loci, rph1 and rph2, confer high-level resistance on strain QRD569, which was collected in 1997. We have now confirmed that rph1 is responsible for the moderate resistance of strain QRD369, which was collected in 1990, and is shared with a highly resistant strain from the same geographical region, QRD569. In contrast, rph2 by itself confers only very weak resistance, either as a heterozygote or as a homozygote and was not discovered in the field until weak resistance (probably due to rph1) had become ubiquitous. Thus, high-level resistance against phosphine has evolved via stepwise acquisition of resistance alleles, first at rph1 and thereafter at rph2. The semi-dominance of rph2 together with the synergistic interaction between rph1 and rph2 would have led to rapid selection for homozygosity. A lack of visible fitness cost associated with alleles at either locus suggests that the resistance phenotype will persist in the field.

Non-destructive assessment of Arundo donax (Poaceae) leaf quality

Leaf carbon (C) content, leaf nitrogen (N) content, and C:N ratio are especially useful for understanding plant-herbivore interactions and may be important in developing control methods for the invasive riparian plant Arundo donax L. We measured C content, N content, C:N ratio, and chlorophyll index (SPAD 502 reading) for 768 leaves from A. donax collected over a five year period at several locations in California, Nevada, and Texas. Leaf N was more variable than leaf C, and thus we developed a linear regression equation for estimating A. donax leaf N from the leaf chlorophyll index (SPAD reading). When applied to two independent data sets, the equation (leaf N content % = -0.63 + 0.08 x SPAD) produced realistic estimates that matched seasonal and spatial trends reported from a natural A. donax population. Used in conjunction with the handheld SPAD 502 meter, the equation provides a rapid, non-destructive method for estimating A. donax leaf quality.

Root-lesion nematodes (Pratylenchus thornei and P. neglectus): A review of recent progress in managing a significant pest of grain crops in northern Australia

Two species of root-lesion nematode (predominantly Pratylenchus thornei but also P. neglectus) are widespread pathogens of wheat and other crops in Australia's northern grain belt, a subtropical region with deep, fertile clay soils and a summer-dominant rainfall pattern. Losses in grain yield from P. thornei can be as high as 70% for intolerant wheat cultivars. This review focuses on research which has led to the development of effective integrated management programs for these nematodes. It highlights the importance of correct identification in managing Pratylenchus species, reviews the plant breeding work done in developing tolerant and resistant cultivars, outlines the methods used to screen for tolerance and resistance, and discusses how planned crop sequencing with tolerant and partially resistant wheat cultivars, together with crops such as sorghum, sunflower, millets and canaryseed, can be used to reduce nematode populations and limit crop damage. The declining levels of soil organic matter in cropped soils are also discussed with reference to their effect on soil health and biological suppression of root-lesion nematodes.

Diet quality and liveweight gain of steers grazing Leucaena-grass pasture estimated with faecal near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (F.NIRS)

Three drafts of Bos indicus cross steers (initially 178-216 kg) grazed Leucaena-grass pasture [Leucaena leucocephala subspecies glabrata cv. Cunningham with green panic (Panicum maximum cv. trichoglume)] from late winter through to autumn during three consecutive years in the Burnett region of south-east Queensland. Measured daily weight gain (DWGActual) of the steers was generally 0.7-1.1 kg/day during the summer months. Estimated intakes of metabolisable energy and dry matter (DM) were calculated from feeding standards as the intakes required by the steers to grow at the DWGActual. Diet attributes were predicted from near infrared reflectance spectroscopy spectra of faeces (F.NIRS) using established calibration equations appropriate for northern Australian forages. Inclusion of some additional reference samples from cattle consuming Leucaena diets into F.NIRS calibrations based on grass and herbaceous legume-grass pastures improved prediction of the proportion of Leucaena in the diet. Mahalanobis distance values supported the hypothesis that the F.NIRS predictions of diet crude protein concentration and DM digestibility (DMD) were acceptable. F.NIRS indicated that the percentage of Leucaena in the diet varied widely (10-99%). Diet crude protein concentration and DMD were usually high, averaging 12.4 and 62%, respectively, and were related asymptotically to the percentage of Leucaena in the diet (R2 = 0.48 and 0.33, respectively). F.NIRS calibrations for DWG were not satisfactory to predict this variable from an individual faecal sample since the s.e. of prediction were 0.33-0.40 kg/day. Cumulative steer liveweight (LW) predicted from F.NIRS DWG calibrations, which had been previously developed with tropical grass and grass-herbaceous legume pastures, greatly overestimated the measured steer LW; therefore, these calibrations were not useful. Cumulative steer LW predicted from a modified F.NIRS DWG calibration, which included data from the present study, was strongly correlated (R2 = 0.95) with steer LW but overestimated LW by 19-31 kg after 8 months. Additional reference data are needed to develop robust F.NIRS calibrations to encompass the diversity of Leucaena pastures of northern Australia. In conclusion, the experiment demonstrated that F.NIRS could improve understanding of diet quality and nutrient intake of cattle grazing Leucaena-grass pasture, and the relationships between nutrient supply and cattle growth.