APSIM – Evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation

Agricultural systems models worldwide are increasingly being used to explore options and solutions for the food security, climate change adaptation and mitigation and carbon trading problem domains. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) is one such model that continues to be applied and adapted to this challenging research agenda. From its inception twenty years ago, APSIM has evolved into a framework containing many of the key models required to explore changes in agricultural landscapes with capability ranging from simulation of gene expression through to multi-field farms and beyond. Keating et al. (2003) described many of the fundamental attributes of APSIM in detail. Much has changed in the last decade, and the APSIM community has been exploring novel scientific domains and utilising software developments in social media, web and mobile applications to provide simulation tools adapted to new demands. This paper updates the earlier work by Keating et al. (2003) and chronicles the changing external challenges and opportunities being placed on APSIM during the last decade. It also explores and discusses how APSIM has been evolving to a “next generation” framework with improved features and capabilities that allow its use in many diverse topics.

Does lethal control of top-predators release mesopredators? A re-evaluation of three Australian case studies

Top-predators can sometimes be important for structuring fauna assemblages in terrestrial ecosystems. Through a complex trophic cascade, the lethal control of top-predators has been predicted to elicit positive population responses from mesopredators that may in turn increase predation pressure on prey species of concern. In support of this hypothesis, many relevant research papers, opinion pieces and literature reviews identify three particular case studies as supporting evidence for top-predator control-induced release of mesopredators in Australia. However, many fundamental details essential for supporting this hypothesis are missing from these case studies, which were each designed to investigate alternative aims. Here, we re-evaluate the strength of evidence for top-predator control-induced mesopredator release from these three studies after comprehensive analyses of associated unpublished correlative and experimental data. Circumstantial evidence alluded to mesopredator releases of either the European Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) or feral Cat (Felis catus) coinciding with Dingo (Canis lupus dingo) control in each case. Importantly, however, substantial limitations in predator population sampling techniques and/or experimental designs preclude strong assertions about the effect of lethal control on mesopredator populations from these studies. In all cases, multiple confounding factors and plausible alternative explanations for observed changes in predator populations exist. In accord with several critical reviews and a growing body of demonstrated experimental evidence on the subject, we conclude that there is an absence of reliable evidence for top-predator control-induced mesopredator release from these three case studies. Well-designed and executed studies are critical for investigating potential top-predator control-induced mesopredator release.

Isolation of multiple novel paramyxoviruses from pteropid bat urine

Bats have been found to harbor a number of new emerging viruses with zoonotic potential and there has been a great deal of interest in identifying novel bat pathogens to determine risk to human and animal health. Many groups have identified novel viruses in bats by detection of viral nucleic acid, however virus isolation is still a challenge and there are few reports of viral isolates from bats. In recent years, our group has developed optimized procedures for virus isolation from bat urine, including the use of primary bat cells. In previous reports we have described the isolation of Hendra virus, Menangle virus and Cedar virus, in Queensland, Australia. Here, we report the isolation of four additional novel bat paramyxoviruses from urine collected from beneath pteropid bat (flying fox) colonies in Queensland and New South Wales during 2009-2011.

Phenotyping novel stay-green traits to capture genetic variation in senescence dynamics

Stay-green plants retain green leaves longer after anthesis and can have improved yield, particularly under water limitation. As senescence is a dynamic process, genotypes with different senescence patterns may exhibit similar final normalised difference vegetative index (NDVI). By monitoring NDVI from as early as awn emergence to maturity, we demonstrate that analysing senescence dynamics improves insight into genotypic stay-green variation. A senescence evaluation tool was developed to fit a logistic function to NDVI data and used to analyse data from three environments for a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) population whose lines contrast for stay-green. Key stay-green traits were estimated including, maximum NDVI, senescence rate and a trait integrating NDVI variation after anthesis, as well as the timing from anthesis to onset, midpoint and conclusion of senescence. The integrative trait and the timing to onset and mid-senescence exhibited high positive correlations with yield and a high heritability in the three studied environments. Senescence rate was correlated with yield in some environments, whereas maximum NDVI was associated with yield in a drought-stressed environment. Where resources preclude frequent measurements, we found that NDVI measurements may be restricted to the period of rapid senescence, but caution is required when dealing with lines of different phenology. In contrast, regular monitoring during the whole period after flowering allows the estimation of senescence dynamics traits that may be reliably compared across genotypes and environments. We anticipate that selection for stay-green traits will enhance genetic progress towards high-yielding, stay-green germplasm.

Modelling the effect of plant water use traits on yield and stay-green expression in sorghum

Post-rainy sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) production underpins the livelihood of millions in the semiarid tropics, where the crop is affected by drought. Drought scenarios have been classified and quantified using crop simulation. In this report, variation in traits that hypothetically contribute to drought adaptation (plant growth dynamics, canopy and root water conducting capacity, drought stress responses) were virtually introgressed into the most common post-rainy sorghum genotype, and the influence of these traits on plant growth, development, and grain and stover yield were simulated across different scenarios. Limited transpiration rates under high vapour pressure deficit had the highest positive effect on production, especially combined with enhanced water extraction capacity at the root level. Variability in leaf development (smaller canopy size, later plant vigour or increased leaf appearance rate) also increased grain yield under severe drought, although it caused a stover yield trade-off under milder stress. Although the leaf development response to soil drying varied, this trait had only a modest benefit on crop production across all stress scenarios. Closer dissection of the model outputs showed that under water limitation, grain yield was largely determined by the amount of water availability after anthesis, and this relationship became closer with stress severity. All traits investigated increased water availability after anthesis and caused a delay in leaf senescence and led to a ‘stay-green’ phenotype. In conclusion, we showed that breeding success remained highly probabilistic; maximum resilience and economic benefits depended on drought frequency. Maximum potential could be explored by specific combinations of traits.

Crop design for specific adaptation in variable dryland production environments

Climatic variability in dryland production environments (E) generates variable yield and crop production risks. Optimal combinations of genotype (G) and management (M) depend strongly on E and thus vary among sites and seasons. Traditional crop improvement seeks broadly adapted genotypes to give best average performance under a standard management regime across the entire production region, with some subsequent manipulation of management regionally in response to average local environmental conditions. This process does not search the full spectrum of potential G × M × E combinations forming the adaptation landscape. Here we examine the potential value (relative to the conventional, broad adaptation approach) of exploiting specific adaptation arising from G × M × E. We present an in-silico analysis for sorghum production in Australia using the APSIM sorghum model. Crop design (G × M) is optimised for subsets of locations within the production region (specific adaptation) and is compared with the optimum G across all environments with locally modified M (broad adaptation). We find that geographic subregions that have frequencies of major environment types substantially different from that for the entire production region show greatest advantage for specific adaptation. Although the specific adaptation approach confers yield and production risk advantages at industry scale, even greater benefits should be achievable with better predictors of environment-type likelihood than that conferred by location alone.

Perennial pastures for marginal farming country in southern Queensland. 2. Potential new grass cultivar evaluation

Trials in the Condamine-Balonne basin, Australia, compared 11 promising perennial pasture grass accessions (4 Bothriochloa, 2 Cenchrus, 2 Urochloa and 1 each of Digitaria, Eragrostis and Panicum species) against the best similar commercial cultivars on the basis of ease of establishment from seed, persistence once established, forage yield and ease of seed production. Accessions sown at a site were determined by prior experience with them on a range of soils. High quality seed was relatively easy to produce for both Urochloa species and for Eragrostis curvula CPI 30374 but problematic for the Bothriochloa spp. Once established, all accessions persisted for 3–5 years and most were well grazed, but adequate establishment was sometimes a problem with Panicum stapfianum and Bothriochloa ewartiana. The dry matter yield ratings of the non-commercial lines were similar to those of the commercial equivalents of the same species. While agronomically valuable, none of the promising new grasses was considered worthy of commercialization at this point because their strengths did not warrant the setting up of a seed-production business in competition with current commercial enterprises. Long-standing cultivars such as Gayndah buffel and Nixon sabi grass continued to exhibit their superior pasture qualities.

Downstream processing of reverse osmosis brine: Characterisation of potential scaling compounds

Reverse osmosis (RO) brine produced at a full-scale coal seam gas (CSG) water treatment facility was characterized with spectroscopic and other analytical techniques. A number of potential scalants including silica, calcium, magnesium, sulphates and carbonates, all of which were present in dissolved and non-dissolved forms, were characterized. The presence of spherical particles with a size range of 10–1000 nm and aggregates of 1–10 microns was confirmed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Those particulates contained the following metals in decreasing order: K, Si, Sr, Ca, B, Ba, Mg, P, and S. Characterization showed that nearly one-third of the total silicon in the brine was present in the particulates. Further, analysis of the RO brine suggested supersaturation and precipitation of metal carbonates and sulphates during the RO process should take place and could be responsible for subsequently capturing silica in the solid phase. However, the precipitation of crystalline carbonates and sulphates are complex. X-ray diffraction analysis did not confirm the presence of common calcium carbonates or sulphates but instead showed the presence of a suite of complex minerals, to which amorphous silica and/or silica rich compounds could have adhered. A filtration study showed that majority of the siliceous particles were less than 220 nm in size, but could still be potentially captured using a low molecular weight ultrafiltration membrane.

Non-cellulosic cell wall polysaccharides are subject to genotype × environment effects in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) grain

Sorghum is a staple food for half a billion people and, through growth on marginal land with minimal inputs, is an important source of feed, forage and increasingly, biofuel feedstock. Here we present information about non-cellulosic cell wall polysaccharides in a diverse set of cultivated and wild Sorghum bicolor grains. Sorghum grain contains predominantly starch (64–76) but is relatively deficient in other polysaccharides present in wheat, oats and barley. Despite overall low quantities, sorghum germplasm exhibited a remarkable range in polysaccharide amount and structure. Total (1,3;1,4)-β-glucan ranged from 0.06 to 0.43 (w/w) whilst internal cellotriose:cellotetraose ratios ranged from 1.8 to 2.9:1. Arabinoxylan amounts fell between 1.5 and 3.6 (w/w) and the arabinose:xylose ratio, denoting arabinoxylan structure, ranged from 0.95 to 1.35. The distribution of these and other cell wall polysaccharides varied across grain tissues as assessed by electron microscopy. When ten genotypes were tested across five environmental sites, genotype (G) was the dominant source of variation for both (1,3;1,4)-β-glucan and arabinoxylan content (69–74), with environment (E) responsible for 5–14. There was a small G × E effect for both polysaccharides. This study defines the amount and spatial distribution of polysaccharides and reveals a significant genetic influence on cell wall composition in sorghum grain.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Flying-foxes in the Australian urban environment - community attitudes and opinions

The urban presence of flying-foxes (pteropid bats) in eastern Australia has increased in the last 20 years, putatively reflecting broader landscape change. The influx of large numbers often precipitates community angst, typically stemming from concerns about loss of social amenity, economic loss or negative health impacts from recently emerged bat-mediated zoonotic diseases such as Hendra virus and Australian bat lyssavirus. Local authorities and state wildlife authorities are increasingly asked to approve the dispersal or modification of flying-fox roosts to address expressed concerns, yet the scale of this concern within the community, and the veracity of the basis for concern are often unclear. We conducted an on-line survey to capture community attitudes and opinions on flying-foxes in the urban environment to inform management policy and decision-making. Analysis focused on awareness, concerns, and management options, and primarily compared responses from communities where flying-fox management was and was not topical at the time of the survey. While a majority of respondents indicated a moderate to high level of knowledge of both flying-foxes and Hendra virus, a substantial minority mistakenly believed that flying-foxes pose a direct infection risk to humans, suggesting miscommunication or misinformation, and the need for additional risk communication strategies. Secondly, a minority of community members indicated they were directly impacted by urban roosts, most plausibly those living in close proximity to the roost, suggesting that targeted management options are warranted. Thirdly, neither dispersal nor culling was seen as an appropriate management strategy by the majority of respondents, including those from postcodes where flying-fox management was topical. These findings usefully inform community debate and policy development and demonstrate the value of social analysis in defining the issues and options in this complex human - wildlife interaction. The mobile nature of flying-foxes underlines the need for a management strategy at a regional or larger scale, and independent of state borders.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Inactivation of Aspergillus flavus spores by curcumin-mediated photosensitization

Minimizing fungal infection is essential to the control of mycotoxin contamination of foods and feeds but many potential control methods are not without their own safety concerns for the consumers. Photodynamic inactivation is a novel light-based approach which offers a promising alternative to conventional methods for the control of mycotoxigenic fungi. This study describes the use of curcumin to inactivate spores of Aspergillus flavus, one of the major aflatoxin producing fungi in foods and feeds. Curcumin is a natural polyphenolic compound from the spice turmeric (Curcuma longa). In this study the plant has shown to be an effective photosensitiser when combined with visible light (420 nm). The experiment was conducted in in vitro and in vivo where A. flavus spores were treated with different photosensitiser concentration and light dose both in buffer solution and on maize kernels. Comparison of fungal load from treated and untreated samples was determined, and reductions of fungal spore counts of up to 3 log CFU ml−1 in suspension and 2 log CFU g−1 in maize kernels were obtained using optimal dye concentrations and light dose combinations. The results in this study indicate that curcumin-mediated photosensitization is a potentially effective method to decontaminate A. flavus spores in foods and feeds.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.