Economic modelling of grazing systems in the Fitzroy and Burdekin catchments

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the largest reef system in the world; it covers an area of approximately 2,225,000 km² in the northern Queensland continental shelf. There are approximately 750 reefs that exist within 40 km of the Queensland coast. Recent research has identified that poor water quality is having negative impacts on the GBR (Haynes et al. 2007). The Fitzroy Basin covers 143,000 km² and is the largest catchment draining into the GBR as well as being one of the largest catchments in Australia (Karfs et al. 2009). The Burdekin Catchment is the second largest catchment entering into the GBR and covers 133,432 km².The prime determinant for the changes in water quality entering into the GBR have been attributed to grazing, with beef production the largest single land use industry comprising 90% of the land area (Karfs et al. 2009). Extensive beef production contributes over $1 billion dollars to the national economy annually and employs over 9000 people, many in rural communities (Gordon 2007). ‘Economic modelling of grazing systems in the Fitzroy and Burdekin catchments’ was a joint project with the Fitzroy Basin Association and the Queensland Department of Employment Economic Development and Innovation. The project was formed under the federally funded Caring For Our Country and the Reef Rescue programs. The project objectives were as follows; * Quantifying the costs of over-utilising available pasture and the resulting sediment leaving a representative farm for four of the major land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments and identifying economically optimal pasture utilisation rates * Estimating the cost of reducing pasture utilisation rates below the determined optimal * Using this information, guide the selection of appropriate tools to achieve reduced utilisation rates e.g. extension process versus incentive payments or a combination of both * Model the biophysical and economic impacts of altering grazing systems to restore land condition e.g. from C condition to B condition for four land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments.

Using fire in spotted gum - ironbark forests for production and biodiversity outcomes. Guidelines for landholders

This guide applies to spotted gum - ironbark forests and woodlands. Topics covered in the guide include: *The spotted gum - ironbark ecosystem; *General effects of burning practices; *Understandinng the effects of fire management; *Timber production; *Livestock grazing production; *Balancing production and biodiversity; *Fire management planning for the property; *Recommendtaions for landholders. These guidelines have been prepared for spotted gum - ironbark forests and woodlands and are not necessarily applicable to other forest and woodland ecosystems. The recommendations provided in these guidelines should be used as a guide only.

Modeling population growth and site specific control of the invasive Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) under differing fire regimes

It is at the population level that an invasion either fails or succeeds. Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) is a weed of great significance in Queensland Australia and globally but its whole life-history ecology is poorly known. Here we used 3 years of field data across four land use types (farm, hoop pine plantation and two open eucalyptus forests, including one with a triennial fire regime) to parameterise the weed’s vital rates and develop size-structured matrix models. Lantana camara in its re-colonization phase, as observed in the recently cleared hoop pine plantation, was projected to increase more rapidly (annual growth rate, λ = 3.80) than at the other three sites (λ 1.88–2.71). Elasticity analyses indicated that growth contributed more (64.6 %) to λ than fecundity (18.5 %) or survival (15.5 %), while across size groups, the contribution was of the order: juvenile (19–27 %) ≥ seed (17–28 %) ≥ seedling (16–25 %) > small adult (4–26 %) ≥ medium adult (7–20 %) > large adult (0–20 %). From a control perspective it is difficult to determine a single weak point in the life cycle of lantana that might be exploited to reduce growth below a sustaining rate. The triennial fire regime applied did not alter the population elasticity structure nor resulted in local control of the weed. However, simulations showed that, except for the farm population, periodic burning could work within 4–10 years for control of the weed, but fire frequency should increase to at least once every 2 years. For the farm, site-specific control may be achieved by 15 years if the biennial fire frequency is tempered with increased burning intensity.

Modelling temperature, photoperiod and vernalization responses of Brunonia australis (Goodeniaceae) and Calandrinia sp (Portulacaceae) to predict flowering time

Crop models for herbaceous ornamental species typically include functions for temperature and photoperiod responses, but very few incorporate vernalization, which is a requirement of many traditional crops. This study investigated the development of floriculture crop models, which describe temperature responses, plus photoperiod or vernalization requirements, using Australian native ephemerals Brunonia australis and Calandrinia sp. A novel approach involved the use of a field crop modelling tool, DEVEL2. This optimization program estimates the parameters of selected functions within the development rate models using an iterative process that minimizes sum of squares residual between estimated and observed days for the phenological event. Parameter profiling and jack-knifing are included in DEVEL2 to remove bias from parameter estimates and introduce rigour into the parameter selection process. Development rate of B. australis from planting to first visible floral bud (VFB) was predicted using a multiplicative approach with a curvilinear function to describe temperature responses and a broken linear function to explain photoperiod responses. A similar model was used to describe the development rate of Calandrinia sp., except the photoperiod function was replaced with an exponential vernalization function, which explained a facultative cold requirement and included a coefficient for determining the vernalization ceiling temperature. Temperature was the main environmental factor influencing development rate for VFB to anthesis of both species and was predicted using a linear model. The phenology models for B. australis and Calandrinia sp. described development rate from planting to VFB and from VFB to anthesis in response to temperature and photoperiod or vernalization and may assist modelling efforts of other herbaceous ornamental plants. In addition to crop management, the vernalization function could be used to identify plant communities most at risk from predicted increases in temperature due to global warming.

A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.

Individual-based modelling of the efficacy of fumigation tactics to control lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica) in stored grain

Increasing resistance to phosphine (PH 3) in insect pests, including lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica) has become a critical issue, and development of effective and sustainable strategies to manage resistance is crucial. In practice, the same grain store may be fumigated multiple times, but usually for the same exposure period and concentration. Simulating a single fumigation allows us to look more closely at the effects of this standard treatment.We used an individual-based, two-locus model to investigate three key questions about the use of phosphine fumigant in relation to the development of PH 3 resistance. First, which is more effective for insect control; long exposure time with a low concentration or short exposure period with a high concentration? Our results showed that extending exposure duration is a much more efficient control tactic than increasing the phosphine concentration. Second, how long should the fumigation period be extended to deal with higher frequencies of resistant insects in the grain? Our results indicated that if the original frequency of resistant insects is increased n times, then the fumigation needs to be extended, at most, n days to achieve the same level of insect control. The third question is how does the presence of varying numbers of insects inside grain storages impact the effectiveness of phosphine fumigation? We found that, for a given fumigation, as the initial population number was increased, the final survival of resistant insects increased proportionally. To control initial populations of insects that were n times larger, it was necessary to increase the fumigation time by about n days. Our results indicate that, in a 2-gene mediated resistance where dilution of resistance gene frequencies through immigration of susceptibles has greater effect, extending fumigation times to reduce survival of homozygous resistant insects will have a significant impact on delaying the development of resistance. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

The effect of long-term repeated burning and fire exclusion on above- and below-ground Blackbutt (Eucalyptus pilularis) forest vegetation assemblages

We used a long-term fire experiment in south-east Queensland, Australia, to determine the effects of frequent prescribed burning and fire exclusion on understorey vegetation (<7.5 m) richness and density in Eucalyptus pilularis forest. Our study provided a point in time assessment of the standing vegetation and soil-stored vegetation at two experimental sites with treatments of biennial burning, quadrennial burning since 19711972 and no burning since 1969. Vegetation composition, density and richness of certain plant groups in the standing and soil-stored vegetation were influenced by fire treatments. The density of resprouting plants <3 m in height was higher in the biennially burnt treatment than in the unburnt treatment, but resprouters 37.5 m in height were absent from the biennial burning treatment. Obligate seeder richness and density in the standing vegetation was not significantly influenced by the fire treatments, but richness of this plant group in the seed bank was higher in the quadrennial treatment at one site and in the long unburnt treatment at the other site. Long unburnt treatments had an understorey of rainforest species, while biennial burning at one site and quadrennial burning at the other site were associated with greater standing grass density relative to the unburnt treatment. This difference in vegetation composition due to fire regime potentially influences the flammability of the standing understorey vegetation. Significant interactions between fire regime and site, apparent in the standing and soil-stored vegetation, demonstrate the high degree of natural variability in vegetation community responses to fire regimes.

Effect of fire and tree-grass patches on soil nitrogen in Australian tropical savannas

Fire is an important driver of nutrient cycling in savannas. Here, we determined the impact of fire frequency on total and soluble soil nitrogen (N) pools in tropical savanna. The study sites consisted of 1-ha experimental plots near Darwin, Australia, which remained unburnt for at least 14 years or were burnt at 1-, 2- or 5-year intervals over the past 6 years. Soil was analysed from patches underneath tree canopies and in inter-canopy patches at 1, 12, 28, 55 and 152 days after fire. Patch type had a significant effect on all soil N pools, with greater concentrations of total and soluble (nitrate, ammonium, amino acids) N under tree canopies than inter-canopy patches. The time since the last fire had no significant effect on N pools. Fire frequency similarly did not affect total soil N but it did influence soluble soil N. Soil amino acids were most prominent in burnt savanna, ammonium was highest in infrequently burnt (5-year interval) savanna and nitrate was highest in unburnt savanna. We suggest that the main effect of fire on soil N relations occurs indirectly through altered tree-grass dynamics. Previous studies have shown that high fire frequencies reduce tree cover by lowering recruitment and increasing mortality. Our findings suggest that these changes in tree cover could result in a 30% reduction in total soil N and 1060% reductions in soluble N pools. This finding is consistent with studies from savannas globally, providing further evidence for a general theory of patchiness as a key driver of nutrient cycling in the savanna biome.

Fuel manipulation with herbicide treatments to reduce fire hazard in young pine (Pinus elliottii × P. caribaea) plantations in south-east Queensland, Australia

Wildfire represents a major risk to pine plantations. This risk is particularly great for young plantations (generally less than 10 m in height) where prescribed fire cannot be used to manipulate fuel biomass, and where flammable grasses are abundant in the understorey. We report results from a replicated field experiment designed to determine the effects of two rates of glyphosate (450 g L–1) application, two extents of application (inter-row only and inter-row and row) with applications being applied once or twice, on understorey fine fuel biomass, fuel structure and composition in south-east Queensland, Australia. Two herbicide applications (~9 months apart) were more effective than a once-off treatment for reducing standing biomass, grass continuity, grass height, percentage grass dry weight and the density of shrubs. In addition, the 6-L ha–1 rate of application was more effective than the 3-L ha–1 rate of application in periodically reducing grass continuity and shrub density in the inter-rows and in reducing standing biomass in the tree rows, and application in the inter-rows and rows significantly reduced shrub density relative to the inter-row-only application. Herbicide treatment in the inter-rows and rows is likely to be useful for managing fuels before prescribed fire in young pine plantations because such treatment minimised tree scorch height during prescribed burns. Further, herbicide treatments had no adverse effects on plantation trees, and in some cases tree growth was enhanced by treatments. However, the effectiveness of herbicide treatments in reducing the risk of tree damage or mortality under wildfire conditions remains untested.