Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Prevalence and potential fitness cost of weak phosphine resistance in Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) in eastern Australia

The prevalence of resistance to phosphine in the rust-red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum, from eastern Australia was investigated, as well as the potential fitness cost of this type of resistance. Discriminating dose tests on 115 population samples collected from farms from 2006 to 2010 showed that populations containing insects with the weakly resistant phenotype are common in eastern Australia (65.2 of samples), although the frequency of resistant phenotypes within samples was typically low (median of 2.3). The population cage approach was used to investigate the possibility that carrying the alleles for weak resistance incurs a fitness cost. Hybridized populations were initiated using a resistant strain and either of two different susceptible strains. There was no evidence of a fitness cost based on the frequency of susceptible phenotypes in hybridized populations that were reared for seven generations without exposure to phosphine. This suggests that resistant alleles will tend to persist in field populations that have undergone selection even if selection pressure is removed. The prevalence of resistance is a warning that this species has been subject to considerable selection pressure and that effective resistance management practices are needed to address this problem. The resistance prevalence data also provide a basis against which to measure management success.

Spatiotemporal aspects of Hendra Virus infection in Pteropid Bats (Flying-Foxes) in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.

Diet of dingoes and other wild dogs in peri-urban areas of north-eastern Australia

Knowledge of the resource requirements of urban predators can improve our understanding of their ecology and assist town planners and wildlife management agencies in developing management approaches that alleviate human-wildlife conflicts. Here we examine food and dietary items identified in scats of dingoes in peri-urban areas of north-eastern Australia to better understand their resource requirements and the potential for dingoes to threaten locally fragmented populations of native fauna. Our primary aim was to determine what peri-urban dingoes eat, and whether or not this differs between regions. We identified over 40 different food items in dingo scats, almost all of which were mammals. Individual species commonly observed in dingo scats included agile wallabies, northern brown bandicoots and swamp wallabies. Birds were relatively common in some areas but not others, as were invertebrates. Dingoes were identified as a significant potential threat to fragmented populations of koalas. Dietary overlap was typically very high or near-identical between regions, indicating that peri-urban dingoes ate the same types or sizes of prey in different areas. Future studies should seek to quantify actual and perceived impacts of, and human attitudes towards, peri-urban dingoes, and to develop management strategies with a greater chance of reducing human-wildlife conflicts.

Dingoes at the Doorstep: Home Range Sizes and Activity Patterns of Dingoes and Other Wild Dogs around Urban Areas of North-Eastern Australia

Top-predators around the world are becoming increasingly intertwined with humans, sometimes causing conflict and increasing safety risks in urban areas. In Australia, dingoes and dingo � domestic dog hybrids are common in many urban areas, and pose a variety of human health and safety risks. However, data on urban dingo ecology is scant. We GPS-collared 37 dingoes in north-eastern Australia and continuously monitored them each 30 min for 11–394 days. Most dingoes were nocturnal, with an overall mean home range size of 17.47 km2. Overall mean daily distance travelled was 6.86 km/day. At all times dingoes were within 1000 m of houses and buildings. Home ranges appeared to be constrained to patches of suitable vegetation fragments within and around human habitation. These data can be used to reallocate dingo management effort towards mitigating actual conflicts between humans and dingoes in urban areas.

Subsoil constraints to grain production in the cropping soils of the north-eastern region of Australia: an overview

In dryland agricultural systems of the subtropical, semi-arid region of north-eastern Australia, water is the most limiting resource. Crop productivity depends on the efficient use of rainfall and available water stored in the soil during fallow. Agronomic management practices including a period of fallow, stubble retention, and reduced tillage enhance reserves of soil water. However, access to stored water in these soils may be restricted by the presence of growth-limiting conditions in the rooting zone of the crop. These have been termed as subsoil constraints. Subsoil constraints may include compacted or gravel layers (physical), sodicity, salinity, acidity, nutrient deficiencies, presence of toxic elements (chemical) and low microbial activity (biological). Several of these constraints may occur together in some soils. Farmers have often not been able to obtain the potential yield determined by their prevailing climatic conditions in the marginal rainfall areas of the northern grains region. In the past, the adoption of soil management practices had been largely restricted to the top 100 mm soil layer. Exploitation of the subsoil as a source of water and nutrients has largely been overlooked. The key towards realising potential yields would be to gain better understanding of subsoils and their limitations, then develop options to manage them practically and economically. Due to the complex nature of the causal factors of these constraints, efforts are required for a combination of management approaches rather than individual options, with the aim to combat these constraints for sustainable crop production, managing natural resources and avoiding environmental damage.

Survey of weed flora and management relative to cropping practices in the north-eastern grain region of Australia

The main weeds and weed management practices undertaken in broad acre dryland cropping areas of north-eastern Australia have been identified. The information was collected in a comprehensive postal survey of both growers and agronomists from Dubbo in New South Wales (NSW) through to Clermont in central Queensland, where 237 surveys were returned. A very diverse weed flora of 105 weeds from 91 genera was identified for the three cropping zones within the region (central Queensland, southern Queensland and northern NSW). Twenty-three weeds were common to all cropping zones. The major common weeds were Sonchus oleraceus, Rapistrum rugosum, Echinochloa spp. and Urochloa panicoides. The main weeds were identified for both summer and winter fallows, and sorghum, wheat and chickpea crops for each of the zones, with some commonality as well as floral uniqueness recorded. More genera were recorded in the fallows than in crops, and those in summer fallows exceeded the number in winter. Across the region, weed management relied heavily on herbicides. In fallows, glyphosate and mixes with glyphosate were very common, although the importance of the glyphosate mix partner differed among the cropping zones. Use and importance of pre-emergence herbicides in-crop varied considerably among the zones. In wheat, more graminicides were used in northern NSW than in southern Queensland, and virtually none were used in central Queensland, reflecting the differences in winter grass weed flora across the region. Atrazine was the major herbicide used in sorghum, although metolachlor was also used predominantly in northern NSW. Fallow and inter-row cultivation were used more often in the southern areas of the region. Grazing of fallows was more prominent in northern NSW. High crop seeding rates were not commonly recorded indicating that growers are not using crop competition as a tool for weed management. Although many management practices were recorded overall, few growers were using integrated weed management, and herbicide resistance has been and continues to be an issue for the region.

Quambalaria species associated with plantation and native eucalypts in Australia

This study aimed to determine which species of Quambalaria are associated with shoot blight symptoms on Corymbia spp. An additional aim was to determine the presence and impact of quambalaria shoot blight on Eucalyptus species used in plantation development in subtropical and tropical regions of eastern Australia. Surveys identified three Quambalaria spp. -Q. pitereka, Q. eucalypti and Q. cyanescens - from native and plantation eucalypts, as well as amenity plantings, including the first confirmed report of Q. eucalypti from Eucalyptus plantations in Australia. Symptom descriptions and morphological studies were coupled with phylogenetic studies using ITS rDNA sequence data. Quambalaria pitereka was the causal agent of blight symptoms on species and hybrids in the Corymbia complex. Quambalaria eucalypti was identified from Eucalyptus species and a single Corymbia hybrid. Quambalaria cyanescens was detected from native and plantation Corymbia spp.

Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia.

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

Light environment and tree development of young Acacia melanoxylon in mixed-species regrowth forest, Tasmania, Australia

Blackwood (Acacia melanoxylon R. Br.) is a valuable leguminous cabinetwood species which is commonly found as a canopy or subcanopy tree in a broad range of mixed-species moist forests on tablelands and coastal escarpments in eastern Australia. This paper reports on the competitive light environment of a commercially valuable multi-species regrowth forest in NW Tasmania, in order to define some of the functional interactions and competitive dynamics of these stands. Comparative observations were made of the internal forest light environment in response to small-gap silvicultural treatments, in a young regenerative mix of three codominant tree species. Light measurements were made during periods of maximum external irradiance of the regrowth Eucalyptus obliqua/A. melanoxylon forest canopy at age 10.5 years. This was at a time of vigourous stand development, 4.5 years following the application of three experimental silvicultural treatments whose effects were observed in comparison with an untreated canopy sample designed as a control. Minimal irradiance was observed within and beneath the dense subcanopy of the native nurse species (Pomaderris apetala) which closely surrounds young blackwood regeneration. Unlike current plantation nurse systems, the dense foliage of the native broadleaved Pomaderris all but eliminated direct side-light and low-angle illumination of the young blackwood, from the beginning of tree establishment. The results demonstrated that retention of these densely stocked native codominants effectively suppressed both size and frequency of blackwood branches on the lower bole, through effective and persistent interception of sunlight. Vigorous young blackwood crowns later overtopped the codominant nurse species, achieving a predictable height of branch-free bole. This competitive outcome offers a valuable tool for management of blackwood crown dynamics, stem form and branch habit through manipulation of light environment in young native regrowth systems. Results demonstrate that effective self-pruning in the lower bole of blackwood is achieved through a marked reduction in direct and diffuse sunlight incident on the lower crown, notably to less than 10-15% of full sunlight intensity during conditions of maximum insolation. The results also contain insights for the improved design of mixed-species plantation nurse systems using these or functionally similar species' combinations. Based on evidence presented here for native regrowth forest, plantation nurse systems for blackwood will need to achieve 85-90% interception of external side-light during early years of tree development if self-pruning is to emulate the results achieved in the native nurse system.

Population genetic structure of the brown tiger prawn, Penaeus esculentus, in tropical northern Australia

Eight polymorphic microsatellite loci were analysed in six population samples from four locations of the Australian endemic brown tiger prawn, Penaeus esculentus. Tests of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium were generally in accord with expectations, with only one locus, in two samples, showing significant deviations. Three samples were taken in different years from the Exmouth Gulf. These showed no significant heterogeneity, and it was concluded that they were from a single panmictic population. A sample from Shark Bay, also on the west coast of Australia, showed barely detectable differentiation from Exmouth Gulf (F (ST) = 0 to 0.0014). A northeast sample from the Gulf of Carpentaria showed low (F (ST) = 0.008) but significant differentiation from Moreton Bay, on the east coast. However, Exmouth Gulf/Shark Bay samples were well differentiated from the Gulf of Carpentaria/Moreton Bay (F (ST) = 0.047-0.063). The data do not fit a simple isolation by distance model. It is postulated that the east-west differentiation largely reflects the isolation of east and west coast populations that occurred at the last glacial maximum when there was a land bridge between north-eastern Australia and New Guinea.

Using morphological traits to identify persistent lucernes for dryland agriculture in NSW, Australia

This paper reports on several studies conducted to better understand the variability between lucerne cultivars and lines, and use this to predict persistence in dryland grazing pastures in eastern Australia. Morphological traits of 20 cultivars/lines were measured in irrigated and dryland spaced plant experiments. Studies were also conducted to describe variation among lucernes in their utilisation of starch and responses to water deficit, pests and diseases. Multiple regression analyses were used to develop simple models where the measured traits could be used to predict persistence of lucerne lines in dryland evaluation experiments. Although there was significant variation among cultivars/lines in most measured traits, no single trait reliably predicted persistence of cultivars/lines in dryland evaluation experiments. However, variation in persistence at both sites could be explained by models developed by multiple regression using differences in the mean lengths of the longest stems at 10% flower in summer and winter. Persistent lucernes were those that had relatively long stems in summer and short stems in winter. Water use efficiencies, starch utilisation patterns and resistances to pests and diseases of different lucernes provided some improvement to this simple model, but these improvements were not consistent.

An overview of integrated pest management (IPM) in north-eastern Australian grain farming systems: Past, present and future prospects

The authors overview integrated pest management (IPM) in grain crops in north-eastern Australia, which is defined as the area north of latitude 32°S. Major grain crops in this region include the coarse grains (winter and summer cereals), oilseeds and pulses. IPM in these systems is complicated by the diversity of crops, pests, market requirements and cropping environments. In general, the pulse crops are at greatest risk, followed by oilseeds and then by cereal grains. Insecticides remain a key grain pest management tool in north-eastern Australia. IPM in grain crops has benefited considerably through the increased adoption of new, more selective insecticides and biopesticides for many caterpillar pests, in particular Helicoverpa spp. and loopers, and the identification of pest-crop scenarios where spraying is unnecessary (e.g. for most Creontiades spp. populations in soybeans). This has favoured the conservation of natural enemies in north-eastern Australia grain crops, and has arguably assisted in the management of silverleaf whitefly in soybeans in coastal Queensland. However, control of sucking pests and podborers such as Maruca vitrata remains a major challenge for IPM in summer pulses. Because these crops have very low pest-damage tolerances and thresholds, intervention with disruptive insecticides is frequently required, particularly during podfill. The threat posed by silverleaf whitefly demands ongoing multi-pest IPM research, development and extension as this pest can flare under favourable seasonal conditions, especially where disruptive insecticides are used injudiciously. The strong links between researchers and industry have facilitated the adoption of IPM practices in north-eastern Australia and augers well for future pest challenges and for the development and promotion of new and improved IPM tactics.

Infection with Menangle virus in flying foxes (Pteropus spp.) in Australia

Objective: To examine flying foxes (Pteropus spp.) for evidence of infection with Menangle virus. Design: Clustered non-random sampling for serology, virus isolation and electron microscopy (EM). Procedure: Serum samples were collected from 306 Pteropus spp. in northern and eastern Australia and tested for antibodies against Menangle virus (MenV) using a virus neutralisation test (VNT). Virus isolation was attempted from tissues and faeces collected from 215 Pteropus spp. in New South Wales. Faecal samples from 68 individual Pteropus spp. and four pools of faeces were examined by transmission EM following routine negative staining and immunogold labelling. Results: Neutralising antibodies (VNT titres ≥ 8) against MenV were detected in 46% of black flying foxes (P. alecto), 41% of grey-headed flying foxes (P. poliocephalus), 25% of spectacled flying foxes (P. conspicillatus) and 1% of little red flying foxes (P. scapulatus) in Australia. Positive sera included samples collected from P. poliocephalus in a colony adjacent to a piggery that had experienced reproductive disease caused by MenV. Virus-like particles were observed by EM in faeces from Pteropus spp. and reactivity was detected in pooled faeces and urine by immunogold EM using sera from sows that had been exposed to MenV. Attempts to isolate the virus from the faeces and tissues from Pteropus spp. were unsuccessful. Conclusion: Serological evidence of infection with MenV was detected in Pteropus spp. in Australia. Although virus-like particles were detected in faeces, no viruses were isolated from faeces, urine or tissues of Pteropus spp.

Biology and host range of Ophiomyia camarae Spencer (Diptera: Agromyzidae), a potential biocontrol agent for Lantana spp. (Verbenaceae) in Australia

The life history and host range of the herringbone leaf-mining fly Ophiomyia camarae, a potential biological control agent for Lantana spp., were investigated. Eggs were deposited singly on the underside of leaves. Although several eggs can be laid on a single leaf and a maximum of three individual mines were seen on a single leaf, only one pupa per leaf ever developed. The generation time (egg to adult) was about 38 days. Females (mean 14 days) lived longer than males (mean 9 days) and produced about 61 mines. Oviposition and larval development occurred on all five lantana phenotypes tested. Eleven plant species representing six families were tested to determine the host range. Oviposition and larval development occurred on only lantana and another nonnative plant Lippia alba (Verbenaceae), with both species supporting populations over several generations. A CLIMEX model showed that most of the coastal areas of eastern Australia south to 30°16' S (Coffs Harbour) would be suitable for O. camarae. O. camarae was approved for release in Australia in October 2007 and mines have been observed on plants at numerous field sites along the coast following releases.