Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

High-throughput Phenotyping of Wheat Seminal Root Traits in a Breeding Context

Water availability is a major limiting factor for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in rain-fed agricultural systems worldwide. Root architecture has important functional implications for the timing and extent of soil water extraction, yet selection for root traits in wheat breeding programs has been largely limited due to the lack of suitable phenotyping methods. The aim of this research was to develop a low-cost high-throughput phenotyping method to facilitate selection for desirable root traits. We developed a method to assess ‘seminal root angle’ and ‘seminal root number’ in seedlings – two proxy traits associated to root architecture of mature wheat plants (1). The method involves measuring the angle between the first pair of seminal roots and the number of roots of wheat seedlings grown in transparent pots (Figure 1). Images captured at 5 to 10 days after sowing are analyzed to calculate seminal root angle and number. Performing this technique under “speed breeding” conditions (plants grown at a density of 600 plants / m2, under controlled temperature and constant light) allows the selection based on the desired root traits of up to 5 consecutive generations within 12 months. Alternatively, when focusing only on germplasm screening, up to 52 successive phenotypic assays can be conducted within 12 months. This approach has been shown to be highly reproducible, it requires little resource (time, space, and labour) and can be used to rapidly enrich breeding populations with desirable alleles for narrow root angle and a high number of seminal roots to indirectly target the selection of deeper root system with higher branching at depth. Such root characteristics are highly desirable in wheat to cope with the climate model projections, especially in summer rainfall dominant regions including some Australian, Indian, South American and African cropping regions, where winter crops mainly rely on deep stored water.

Plants of Central Queensland: Identification and Uses of Native and Introduced Species

Conservation and sustainable productivity are vital issues for Australia. In order to manage vegetation well from an agricultural, recreational or conservation point of view, an understanding of individual plant species is important. Plants of Central Queensland provides a guide for identifying and understanding the plants of the region so that pastoralists and others can be better equipped to manage the vegetation resource of our grazing lands. Central Queensland straddles the Tropic of Capricorn, although many of the plants in the book will also be found outside this area, as shown by their distribution maps. The book provides information on the habit, distribution, foliage and fruits of 525 plant species. Informative notes highlighting declared, poisonous, weed and medicinal plants are included, and plants useful for bees and bush tucker are also noted. These are the most important plants you might see if you live in or travel through central Queensland. This book has an easy-to-read, non-botanical format, with helpful photographs and distribution maps that greatly aid anyone interested in the vegetation of central Queensland. It is based on a previous work of the same title but is greatly expanded, incorporating information on an additional 285 plant species.

The effect of post harvest handling on selected native food plants

A commercial issue currently facing native plant food producers and food processors, and identified by the industry itself, is that of delivering quality products consistently and at reasonable cost to end users based on a sound food technology and nutrition platform. A literature survey carried out in July 2001 by the DPI&F’s Centre for Food Technology, Brisbane in collaboration with the University of Queensland to collect the latest information at that time on the functional food market as it pertained to native food plants, indicated that little or no work had been published on this topic. This project addresses two key RIRDC sub program strategies: to identify and evaluate processes or products with prospects of commercial viability and to assist in the development of integrated production, harvesting, processing and marketing systems. This project proposal also reflects a key RIRDC R&D issue for 2002-2003; that of linking with prospective members of the value chain. The purpose of this project was to obtain chemical data on the post harvest stability of functional nutritional components (bio actives) in commercially available, hand harvested bush tomato and Kakadu plum. The project concentrated on evaluating bioactive stability as a measure of ingredient quality.