Sustainable grazing management for temporal and spatial variability in north Australian rangelands – a synthesis of the latest evidence and recommendations

Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable grazing management in northern Australia, with management often complicated further by large, spatially-heterogeneous paddocks. This paper presents the latest grazing research and associated bio-economic modelling from northern Australia and assesses the extent to which current recommendations to manage for these issues are supported. Overall, stocking around the safe long-term carrying capacity will maintain land condition and maximise long-term profitability. However, stocking rates should be varied in a risk-averse manner as pasture availability varies between years. Periodic wet-season spelling is also essential to maintain pasture condition and allow recovery of overgrazed areas. Uneven grazing distributions can be partially managed through fencing, providing additional water-points and in some cases patch-burning, although the economics of infrastructure development are extremely context-dependent. Overall, complex multi-paddock grazing systems do not appear justified in northern Australia. Provided the key management principles outlined above are applied in an active, adaptive manner, acceptable economic and environmental outcomes will be achieved irrespective of the grazing system applied.

Stay-green alleles individually enhance grain yield in sorghum under drought by modifying canopy development and water uptake patterns

* Stay-green is an integrated drought adaptation trait characterized by a distinct green leaf phenotype during grain filling under terminal drought. We used sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a repository of drought adaptation mechanisms, to elucidate the physiological and genetic mechanisms underpinning stay-green. * Near-isogenic sorghum lines (cv RTx7000) were characterized in a series of field and managed-environment trials (seven experiments and 14 environments) to determine the influence of four individual stay-green (Stg1–4) quantitative trait loci (QTLs) on canopy development, water use and grain yield under post-anthesis drought. * The Stg QTL decreased tillering and the size of upper leaves, which reduced canopy size at anthesis. This reduction in transpirational leaf area conserved soil water before anthesis for use during grain filling. Increased water uptake during grain filling of Stg near-isogenic lines (NILs) relative to RTx7000 resulted in higher post-anthesis biomass production, grain number and yield. Importantly, there was no consistent yield penalty associated with the Stg QTL in the irrigated control. * These results establish a link between the role of the Stg QTL in modifying canopy development and the subsequent impact on crop water use patterns and grain yield under terminal drought.

Large-scale characterization of drought pattern: a continent-wide modelling approach applied to the Australian wheatbelt – spatial and temporal trends

* Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. * Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123 yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. * Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. * Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates.

Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia

Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia’s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901–2007), and two emission scenarios (“low” and “high” CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from −5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from −5 to −30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North–south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.

Low temperature exposure of root system and inflorescence affected flowering and fruit set in 'Chardonnay' grapevines (Vitis vinifera)

The mechanisms by which low temperature affects flowering and fruit set of grapevines are poorly understood, as is the specific response of the grapevine root system and inflorescence to low temperature effects that reduce fruit set. This study aimed to determine the responses of the root system and inflorescence of the grapevine 'Chardonnay' to low temperature (10 degrees C) during flowering, and considered the possible mechanisms of low temperature effects on those parts. Temperature treatments of 10 degrees C or 20 degrees C were imposed to potted 'Chardonnay' grapevines in a glasshouse for up to two weeks during the early stages of flowering. When the root system alone was exposed to 10 degrees C (with the rest of the plant at 20 degrees C) during flowering, the number of attached berries and percentage fruit set were significantly reduced by 50 % than when the root system alone was exposed to 20 degrees C. Whereas, exposure of the inflorescence alone to 10 degrees C (with the rest of the plant at 20 degrees C) delayed flowering, allowed rachis to grow longer, and increased both the number of attached berries (from 22 to 62 per vine) and fruit set (from 8 % to, 20 %), than when the inflorescence alone was exposed to 20 degrees C. This study will enhance our understanding of the possible mechanisms of low temperature effects on grapevine fruit set and productivity.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Modelling the effect of plant water use traits on yield and stay-green expression in sorghum

Post-rainy sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) production underpins the livelihood of millions in the semiarid tropics, where the crop is affected by drought. Drought scenarios have been classified and quantified using crop simulation. In this report, variation in traits that hypothetically contribute to drought adaptation (plant growth dynamics, canopy and root water conducting capacity, drought stress responses) were virtually introgressed into the most common post-rainy sorghum genotype, and the influence of these traits on plant growth, development, and grain and stover yield were simulated across different scenarios. Limited transpiration rates under high vapour pressure deficit had the highest positive effect on production, especially combined with enhanced water extraction capacity at the root level. Variability in leaf development (smaller canopy size, later plant vigour or increased leaf appearance rate) also increased grain yield under severe drought, although it caused a stover yield trade-off under milder stress. Although the leaf development response to soil drying varied, this trait had only a modest benefit on crop production across all stress scenarios. Closer dissection of the model outputs showed that under water limitation, grain yield was largely determined by the amount of water availability after anthesis, and this relationship became closer with stress severity. All traits investigated increased water availability after anthesis and caused a delay in leaf senescence and led to a ‘stay-green’ phenotype. In conclusion, we showed that breeding success remained highly probabilistic; maximum resilience and economic benefits depended on drought frequency. Maximum potential could be explored by specific combinations of traits.

Assessing refrigerating and freezing effects on the biological/chemical composition of two livestock manures

Assessing storage impacts on manure properties is relevant to research associated with nutrient-use efficiency and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We examined the impact of cold storage on physicochemical properties, biochemical methane-emitting potential (BMP) and the composition of microbial communities of beef feedlot manure and poultry broiler litter. Manures were analysed within 2 days of collection and after 2 and 8 weeks in refrigerated (4 °C) or frozen (–20 °C) storage. Compared with fresh manure, stored manures had statistically significant (p < 0.05) but comparatively minor (<10%) changes in electrical conductivity, chloride and ammonium concentrations. Refrigeration and freezing did not significantly affect (p > 0.05) BMP in both manure types. We did not detect ammonium- or nitrite-oxidising bacterial taxa (AOB, NOB) using fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH). Importantly, the viability of microbes was unchanged by storage. We conclude that storage at –20 °C or 4 °C adequately preserves the investigated traits of the studied manures for research aimed at improving nutrient cycling and reducing GHG emissions.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

A participatory systems approach to understanding climate adaptation needs

Emerging literature on climate adaptation suggests the need for effective ways of engaging or activating communities and supporting community roles, coupled with whole-of-system approaches to understanding climate change and adaptation needs. We have developed and evaluated a participatory approach to elicit community and stakeholder understanding of climate change adaptation needs, and connect diverse community members and local office bearers towards potential action. The approach was trialed in a series of connected social-ecological systems along a transect from a rural area to the coast and islands of ecologically sensitive Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia. We conducted ‘climate roundtables’ in each of three areas along the transect, then a fourth roundtable reviewed and extended the results to the region as a whole. Influence diagrams produced through the process show how each climate variable forecast to affect this region (heat, storm, flood, sea-level rise, fire, drought) affects the natural environment, infrastructure, economic and social behaviour patterns, and psychosocial responses, and how sets of people, species and ecosystems are affected, and act, differentially. The participatory process proved effective as a way of building local empathy, a local knowledge base and empowering participants to join towards future climate adaptation action. Key principles are highlighted to assist in adapting the process for use elsewhere.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Frost trends and their estimated impact on yield in the Australian wheatbelt

Radiant spring frosts occurring during reproductive developmental stages can result in catastrophic yield loss for wheat producers. To better understand the spatial and temporal variability of frost, the occurrence and impact of frost events on rain-fed wheat production was estimated across the Australian wheatbelt for 1957–2013 using a 0.05 ° gridded weather data set. Simulated yield outcomes at 60 key locations were compared with those for virtual genotypes with different levels of frost tolerance. Over the last six decades, more frost events, later last frost day, and a significant increase in frost impact on yield were found in certain regions of the Australian wheatbelt, in particular in the South-East and West. Increasing trends in frost-related yield losses were simulated in regions where no significant trend of frost occurrence was observed, due to higher mean temperatures accelerating crop development and causing sensitive post-heading stages to occur earlier, during the frost risk period. Simulations indicated that with frost-tolerant lines the mean national yield could be improved by up to 20 through (i) reduced frost damage (~10 improvement) and (ii) the ability to use earlier sowing dates (adding a further 10 improvement). In the simulations, genotypes with an improved frost tolerance to temperatures 1 °C lower than the current 0 °C reference provided substantial benefit in most cropping regions, while greater tolerance (to 3 °C lower temperatures) brought further benefits in the East. The results indicate that breeding for improved reproductive frost tolerance should remain a priority for the Australian wheat industry, despite warming climates.

Post-head-emergence frost in wheat and barley: defining the problem, assessing the damage, and identifying resistance

Radiant frost is a significant production constraint to wheat (Triticum aestivum) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), particularly in regions where spring-habit cereals are grown through winter, maturing in spring. However, damage to winter-habit cereals in reproductive stages is also reported. Crops are particularly susceptible to frost once awns or spikes emerge from the protection of the flag leaf sheath. Post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) is a problem distinct from other cold-mediated production constraints. To date, useful increased PHEF resistance in cereals has not been identified. Given the renewed interest in reproductive frost damage in cereals, it is timely to review the problem. Here we update the extent and impacts of PHEF and document current management options to combat this challenge. We clarify terminology useful for discussing PHEF in relation to chilling and other freezing stresses. We discuss problems characterizing radiant frost, the environmental conditions leading to PHEF damage, and the effects of frost at different growth stages. PHEF resistant cultivars would be highly desirable, to both reduce the incidence of direct frost damage and to allow the timing of crop maturity to be managed to maximize yield potential. A framework of potential adaptation mechanisms is outlined. Clarification of these critical issues will sharpen research focus, improving opportunities to identify genetic sources for improved PHEF resistance.

Post-head-emergence frost in wheat and barley: defining the problem, assessing the damage, and identifying resistance

Radiant frost is a significant production constraint to wheat (Triticum aestivum) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), particularly in regions where spring-habit cereals are grown through winter, maturing in spring. However, damage to winter-habit cereals in reproductive stages is also reported. Crops are particularly susceptible to frost once awns or spikes emerge from the protection of the flag leaf sheath. Post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) is a problem distinct from other cold-mediated production constraints. To date, useful increased PHEF resistance in cereals has not been identified. Given the renewed interest in reproductive frost damage in cereals, it is timely to review the problem. Here we update the extent and impacts of PHEF and document current management options to combat this challenge. We clarify terminology useful for discussing PHEF in relation to chilling and other freezing stresses. We discuss problems characterizing radiant frost, the environmental conditions leading to PHEF damage, and the effects of frost at different growth stages. PHEF resistant cultivars would be highly desirable, to both reduce the incidence of direct frost damage and to allow the timing of crop maturity to be managed to maximize yield potential. A framework of potential adaptation mechanisms is outlined. Clarification of these critical issues will sharpen research focus, improving opportunities to identify genetic sources for improved PHEF resistance.

Heat stress effects on grain sorghum productivity-biology and modelling

Heat stress can cause sterility in sorghum and the anticipated increased frequency of high temperature events implies increasing risk to sorghum productivity in Australia. Here we summarise our research on specific varietal attributes associated with heat stress tolerance in sorghum and evaluate how they might affect yield outcomes in production environments by a crop simulation analysis. We have recently conducted a range of controlled environment and field experiments to study the physiology and genetics of high temperature effects on growth and development of sorghum. Sorghum seed set was reduced by high temperature effects (>36-38oC) on pollen germination around flowering, but genotypes differed in their tolerance to high temperature stress. Effects were quantified in a manner that enabled their incorporation into the APSIM sorghum crop model. Simulation analysis indicated that risk of high temperature damage and yield loss depended on sowing date, and variety. While climate trends will exacerbate high temperature effects, avoidance by crop management and genetic tolerance seems possible.