Survival of Hendra Virus in the Environment: Modelling the Effect of Temperature

Hendra virus (HeV), a highly pathogenic zoonotic paramyxovirus recently emerged from bats, is a major concern to the horse industry in Australia. Previous research has shown that higher temperatures led to lower virus survival rates in the laboratory. We develop a model of survival of HeV in the environment as influenced by temperature. We used 20 years of daily temperature at six locations spanning the geographic range of reported HeV incidents to simulate the temporal and spatial impacts of temperature on HeV survival. At any location, simulated virus survival was greater in winter than in summer, and in any month of the year, survival was higher in higher latitudes. At any location, year-to-year variation in virus survival 24 h post-excretion was substantial and was as large as the difference between locations. Survival was higher in microhabitats with lower than ambient temperature, and when environmental exposure was shorter. The within-year pattern of virus survival mirrored the cumulative within-year occurrence of reported HeV cases, although there were no overall differences in survival in HeV case years and non-case years. The model examines the effect of temperature in isolation; actual virus survivability will reflect the effect of additional environmental factors

Maximum likelihood estimation of natural mortality and quantification of temperature effects on catchability of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia) using logbook data

It is common to model the dynamics of fisheries using natural and fishing mortality rates estimated independently using two separate analyses. Fishing mortality is routinely estimated from widely available logbook data, whereas natural mortality estimations have often required more specific, less frequently available, data. However, in the case of the fishery for brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay, both fishing and natural mortality rates have been estimated from logbook data. The present work extended the fishing mortality model to incorporate an eco-physiological response of tiger prawn to temperature, and allowed recruitment timing to vary from year to year. These ecological characteristics of the dynamics of this fishery were ignored in the separate model that estimated natural mortality. Therefore, we propose to estimate both natural and fishing mortality rates within a single model using a consistent set of hypotheses. This approach was applied to Moreton Bay brown tiger prawn data collected between 1990 and 2010. Natural mortality was estimated by maximum likelihood to be equal to 0.032 ± 0.002 week−1, approximately 30% lower than the fixed value used in previous models of this fishery (0.045 week−1).