35 resultados para spatial electric load forecasting


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Veterinarians have few tools to predict the rate of disease progression in FIV-infected cats. In contrast, in HIV infection, plasma viral RNA load and acute phase protein concentrations are commonly used as predictors of disease progression. This study evaluated these predictors in cats naturally infected with FIV. In older cats (>5 years), log10 FIV RNA load was higher in the terminal stages of disease compared to the asymptomatic stage. There was a significant association between log10 FIV RNA load and both log10 serum amyloid A concentration and age in unwell FIV-infected cats. This study suggests that viral RNA load and serum amyloid A warrant further investigation as predictors of disease status and prognosis in FIV-infected cats.

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* Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. * Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123 yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. * Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. * Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates.

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Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia’s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901–2007), and two emission scenarios (“low” and “high” CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from −5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from −5 to −30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North–south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.

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Despite international protection of white sharks Carcharodon carcharias, important conservation parameters such as abundance, population structure and genetic diversity are largely unknown. The tissue of 97 predominately juvenile white sharks sampled from spatially distant eastern and southwestern Australian coastlines was sequenced for the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and genotyped with 6 nuclear-encoded microsatellite loci. MtDNA population structure was found between the eastern and southwestern coasts (F-ST = 0.142, p < 0.0001), implying female reproductive philopatry. This concurs with recent satellite and acoustic tracking findings which suggest the sustained presence of discrete east coast nursery areas. Furthermore, population subdivision was found between the same regions with biparentally inherited micro satellite markers (F-ST = 0.009, p < 0.05), suggesting that males may also exhibit some degree of reproductive philopatry; 5 sharks captured along the east coast had mtDNA haplotypes that resembled western Indian Ocean sharks more closely than Australian/New Zealand sharks, suggesting that transoceanic dispersal, or migration resulting in breeding, may occur sporadically. Our most robust estimate of contemporary genetic effective population size was low and close to thresholds at which adaptive potential may be lost. For a variety of reasons, these contemporary estimates were at least 1, possibly 2, orders of magnitude below our historical effective size estimates. Population decline could expose these genetically isolated populations to detrimental genetic effects. Regional Australian white shark conservation management units should be implemented until genetic population structure, size and diversity can be investigated in more detail.

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Exposure to hot environments affects milk yield (MY) and milk composition of pasture and feed-pad fed dairy cows in subtropical regions. This study was undertaken during summer to compare MY and physiology of cows exposed to six heat-load management treatments. Seventy-eight Holstein-Friesian cows were blocked by season of calving, parity, milk yield, BW, and milk protein (%) and milk fat (%) measured in 2 weeks prior to the start of the study. Within blocks, cows were randomly allocated to one of the following treatments: open-sided iron roofed day pen adjacent to dairy (CID) + sprinklers (SP); CID only; non-shaded pen adjacent to dairy + SP (NSD + SP); open-sided shade cloth roofed day pen adjacent to dairy (SCD); NSD + sprinkler (sprinkler on for 45 min at 1100 h if mean respiration rate >80 breaths per minute (NSD + WSP)); open-sided shade cloth roofed structure over feed bunk in paddock + 1 km walk to and from the dairy (SCP + WLK). Sprinklers for CID + SP and NSD + SP cycled 2 min on, 12 min off when ambient temperature >26°C. The highest milk yields were in the CID + SP and CID treatments (23.9 L cow−1 day−1), intermediate for NSD + SP, SCD and SCP + WLK (22.4 L cow−1 day−1), and lowest for NSD + WSP (21.3 L cow−1 day−1) (P < 0.05). The highest (P < 0.05) feed intakes occurred in the CID + SP and CID treatments while intake was lowest (P < 0.05) for NSD + WSP and SCP + WLK. Weather data were collected on site at 10-min intervals, and from these, THI was calculated. Nonlinear regression modelling of MY × THI and heat-load management treatment demonstrated that cows in CID + SP showed no decline in MY out to a THI break point value of 83.2, whereas the pooled MY of the other treatments declined when THI >80.7. A combination of iron roof shade plus water sprinkling throughout the day provided the most effective control of heat load.