Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Legumes or nitrification inhibitors to reduce N2O emissions from subtropical cereal cropping systems in Oxisols?

The DAYCENT biogeochemical model was used to investigate how the use of fertilizers coated with nitrification inhibitors and the introduction of legumes in the crop rotation can affect subtropical cereal production and N2O emissions. The model was validated using comprehensive multi-seasonal, high-frequency dataset from two field investigations conducted on an Oxisol, which is the most common soil type in subtropical regions. Different N fertilizer rates were tested for each N management strategy and simulated under varying weather conditions. DAYCENT was able to reliably predict soil N dynamics, seasonal N2O emissions and crop production, although some discrepancies were observed in the treatments with low or no added N inputs and in the simulation of daily N2O fluxes. Simulations highlighted that the high clay content and the relatively low C levels of the Oxisol analyzed in this study limit the chances for significant amounts of N to be lost via deep leaching or denitrification. The application of urea coated with a nitrification inhibitor was the most effective strategy to minimize N2O emissions. This strategy however did not increase yields since the nitrification inhibitor did not substantially decrease overall N losses compared to conventional urea. Simulations indicated that replacing part of crop N requirements with N mineralized by legume residues is the most effective strategy to reduce N2O emissions and support cereal productivity. The results of this study show that legumes have significant potential to enhance the sustainable and profitable intensification of subtropical cereal cropping systems in Oxisols.

Wheats developed for high yield on stored soil moisture have deep vigorous root systems

Many rainfed wheat production systems are reliant on stored soil water for some or all of their water inputs. Selection and breeding for root traits could result in a yield benefit; however, breeding for root traits has traditionally been avoided due to the difficulty of phenotyping mature root systems, limited understanding of root system development and function, and the strong influence of environmental conditions on the phenotype of the mature root system. This paper outlines an international field selection program for beneficial root traits at maturity using soil coring in India and Australia. In the rainfed areas of India, wheat is sown at the end of the monsoon into hot soils with a quickly receding soil water profile; in season water inputs are minimal. We hypothesised that wheat selected and bred for high yield under these conditions would have deep, vigorous root systems, allowing them to access and utilise the stored soil water at depth around anthesis and grain-filling when surface layers were dry. The Indian trials resulted in 49 lines being sent to Australia for phenotyping. These lines were ranked against 41 high yielding Australian lines. Variation was observed for deep root traits e.g. in eastern Australia in 2012, maximum depth ranged from 118.8 to 146.3 cm. There was significant variation for root traits between sites and years, however, several Indian genotypes were identified that consistently ranked highly across sites and years for deep rooting traits.