77 resultados para economic production model
Resumo:
Steer liveweight gains were measured in an extensive grazing study conducted in a Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pasture in central Queensland between 1988 and 2001. Treatments included a range of stocking rates in native pastures, legume-oversown native pasture and animal diet supplement/spring-burning pastures. Seasonal rainfall throughout this study was below the long-term mean. Mean annual pasture utilisation ranged from 13 to 61%. Annual liveweight gains per head in native pasture were highly variable among years and ranged from a low of 43 kg/steer at 2 ha/steer to a high of 182 kg/steer at 8 ha/steer. Annual liveweight gains were consistently highest at light stocking and decreased with increasing stocking rate. Annual liveweight gain per hectare increased linearly with stocking rate. These stocking rate trends were also evident in legume-oversown pastures although both the intercept and slope of the regressions for legume-oversown pastures were higher than that for native pasture. The highest annual liveweight gain for legume-oversown pasture was 221 kg/steer at 4 ha/steer. After 13 years, annual liveweight gain per unit area occurred at the heaviest stocking rate despite deleterious changes in the pasture. Across all years, the annual liveweight advantage for legume-oversown pastures was 37 kg/steer. Compared with native pasture, changes in annual liveweight gain with burning were variable. It was concluded that cattle productivity is sustainable when stocking rates are maintained at 4 ha/steer or lighter (equivalent to a utilisation rate around 30%). Although steer liveweight gain occurred at all stocking rates and economic returns were highest at heaviest stocking rates, stocking rates heavier than 4 ha/steer are unsustainable because of their long-term impact on pasture productivity.
Resumo:
Farmlets, each of 20 cows, were established to field test five milk production systems and provide a learning platform for farmers and researchers in a subtropical environment. The systems were developed through desktop modelling and industry consultation in response to the need for substantial increases in farm milk production following deregulation of the industry. Four of the systems were based on grazing and the continued use of existing farmland resource bases, whereas the fifth comprised a feedlot and associated forage base developed as a greenfield site. The field evaluation was conducted over 4 years under more adverse environmental conditions than anticipated with below average rainfall and restrictions on irrigation. For the grazed systems, mean annual milk yield per cow ranged from 6330 kg/year (1.9 cows/ha) for a herd based on rain-grown tropical pastures to 7617 kg/year (3.0 cows/ha) where animals were based on temperate and tropical irrigated forages. For the feedlot herd, production of 9460 kg/cow.year (4.3 cows/ha of forage base) was achieved. For all herds, the level of production achieved required annual inputs of concentrates of similar to 3 t DM/animal and purchased conserved fodder from 0.3 to 1.5 t DM/animal. This level of supplementary feeding made a major contribution to total farm nutrient inputs, contributing 50% or more of the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium entering the farming system, and presents challenges to the management of manure and urine that results from the higher stocking rates enabled. Mean annual milk production for the five systems ranged from 88 to 105% of that predicted by the desktop modelling. This level of agreement for the grazed systems was achieved with minimal overall change in predicted feed inputs; however, the feedlot system required a substantial increase in inputs over those predicted. Reproductive performance for all systems was poorer than anticipated, particularly over the summer mating period. We conclude that the desktop model, developed as a rapid response to assist farmers modify their current farming systems, provided a reasonable prediction of inputs required and milk production. Further model development would need to consider more closely climate variability, the limitations summer temperatures place on reproductive success and the feed requirements of feedlot herds.
Resumo:
A simulation model that combines biological, search and economic components is applied to the eradication of a Miconia calvescens infestation at El Arish in tropical Queensland, Australia. Information on the year M. calvescens was introduced to the site, the number of plants controlled and the timing of control, is used to show that currently there could be M. calvescens plants remaining undetected at the site, including some mature plants. Modelling results indicate that the eradication programme has had a significant impact on the population of M. calvescens, as shown by simulated results for uncontrolled and controlled populations. The model was also used to investigate the effect of changing search effort on the cost of and time to eradication. Control costs were found to be negligible over all levels of search effort tested. Importantly, results suggest eradication may be achieved within several decades, if resources are increased slightly from their current levels and if there is a long-term commitment to funding the eradication programme.
Resumo:
When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.
Resumo:
The economic performance of a terminal crossbreeding system based on Brahman cows and a tropically adapted composite herd were compared to a straightbred Brahman herd. All systems were targeted to meet specifications of the grass-finished Japanese market. The production system modelled represented a typical individual central Queensland integrated breeding/finishing enterprise or a northern Australian vertically integrated enterprise with separate breeding and finishing properties. Due mainly to a reduced age of turnoff of Crossbred and Composite sale animals and an improved weaning rate in the Composite herd, Crossbred and Composite herds returned a gross margin of $7 and $24 per Adult Equivalent (AE) respectively above that of the Brahman herd. The benefits of changing 25% of the existing 85% of Brahmans in the northern Australian herd to either Crossbreds or Composites over a 10-year period were also examined. With no premium for carcass quality in Crossbred and Composite sale animals, annual benefits were $16 M and $61 M for Crossbreds and Composites in 2013. The cumulative Present Value (PV) of this shift over the 10-year period was $88 M and $342 M respectively, discounted at 7%. When a 5c per kg premium for carcass quality was included, differences in annual benefits rose to $30 M and $75 M and cumulative PVs to $168 M and $421 M for Crossbreds and Composites respectively.
Resumo:
Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.
Resumo:
The aim of this project was to quantify differences between treated and untreated coir (coconut industrial residues) products and to identify differences in growth, yield and quality of cut flowers grown in different coir products. This has been brought about largely by the concern that some coir products, washed in low quality (saline) water may have detrimental effects on plant productivity and quality. There is concern in the flower production industry and among media suppliers, that lower quality products are favoured due to price alone, which as this project shows is a false economy. Specifically the project examined: • Differences in physical and chemical properties of treated and untreated coir along with another commonly used growing media in the flower industy; • Potential improvements in yield and quality of Gerbera (Gerbera jamesonii); • Potential differences in vase life of Gerbera as a result of the different growing media; and • Cost-benefit implications of treated (more expensive) coir substrate products versus untreated (less expensive) coir including any subsequent differences in yield and quality. By first examining the physical and some chemical properties of different coir substrates and other industry standard media, the researchers have been able to validate the concerns raised about the potential quality issues in coir based growing media. There was a great deal of variation in both the electrical conductivity and sodium contents. Physical properties were also variable as expected since manufacturers are able to target the specific physical preferences of plants through manipulation of the particle size distribution. A field trial was conducted under protected cropping practices in which three growing media were compared in terms of total productivity and also flower quality parameters such as stem length, flower diameter and vase life. The trial was a completely randomised design with the three growing media comprising treated coir discs, untreated coir discs and a pine bark coir mix. Four cultivars of Gerbera were assessed: Balance®; Carambole®; Dune® and Picobello®, all new products from Florist de Kwakel B.V., Denmark. Initial expansion from tissue culture was conducted at the Highsun Express Facility, Ormiston, Queensland. The trial included 12 replications of each cultivar in each media (a total of 144 plants) to ensure all data collected, and the derived conclusions were statistically rigorous. The coir supplied with no pre-treatment or buffering produced significantly less flowers than those grown in a pine bark coir mix or the pre-treated coir. Interestingly, the pine bark coir mix produced a greater number of flowers. However, the flowers produced in the pine bark coir mix were generally a shorter length stem. Productivity data, combined with flower quality data and component costs were all analysed through a cost/benefit economic model which showed that the greater revenue from better stem length outweighed the stem numbers, giving a cost benefit ratio of 2.58 for treated coir, 2.49 for untreated coir and 2.52 for pine bark coir mix. While this does not seem a large difference, when considering the number of plants a producer maintains can be upwards of 50,000 the difference in revenue would be, at a minimum $60,000 in this example. In conclusion, this project has found that there are significant effects on plant health, growth, yield and quality between those grown in treated and untreated coir. The outcome being growers can confidently invest in more expensive treated products with the assurance that benefits will outweigh initial cost. It is false economy to favour untreated coir products based on price alone. Producers should ensure they fully understand the production processes when purchasing growing media. Rather than targeting lower priced materials, it is recommended that quality be the highest priority in making this management decision. In making recommendations for future research and development it was important to consider conclusions from other researchers as well as those of the current project. It has been suggested that the media has greater longevity, which although not captured in this study could also lead to further cost efficiencies. Assessment of the products over a longer time period, and using a wider range of plant species are the major recommendations for further research to ensure greater understanding as to the importance in choosing the right growing media to meet specific needs.
Resumo:
This project involves validating and upgrading the PigBal model to improve the accuracy of manure production predictions from intensive piggery operations.
Resumo:
To collate support and extension materials to ensure the recipients of Australian cattle have, at least, a minimum understanding of animal husbandry. As the number of destination markets increases, the need will also increase to produce similar material relevant and locally sensitive for these new markets.
Resumo:
Increase water use efficiency and productivity, and reduce energy and water usage and costs, of dairy and fodder enterprises, to reduce costs of milk production.
Resumo:
The investigation of androgenic gland manipulations a mean for creating an all female P monodon populations.
Resumo:
Establish a greenhouse gas pond cover and collection system providing data on methane and CO2 emissions.
Resumo:
Production of Macadamia Rootstock.
Resumo:
Alternatives to methyl bromide for Queensland strawberry production.
Resumo:
Development of regeneration and transformation methods for genetic improvement of rootstocks for mango, avocado and citrus.