Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Management of the invasive hill raspberry (Rubus niveus) on Santiago Island, Galapagos: Eradication or indefinite control?

The eradication of an invasive plant species can provide substantial ecological and economic benefits by eliminating completely the negative effects of the weed and reducing the high cost of continuing control. A 5-yr program toward the eradication of hill raspberry (Rubus niveus Thunb.) in Santiago Island is evaluated using delimitation and extirpation criteria, as well as assessment of the ecological community response to management techniques. Currently, hill raspberry is located in the humid zone of Santiago island. It is distributed over three main infestations, small patches, and many scattered individuals within an area of approximately 1,000 ha. New infestations are constantly being found; every year, new detections add an area of approximately 175 ha. Adult and juvenile individuals are still found, both beyond and within known infestations. Both plant and seed bank density of hill raspberry decreased over time where infestations were controlled. Species composition in the seed bank and existing vegetation were significantly different between areas under intensive control and adjacent uninvaded forest. After 5 yr of intensive management, delimitation of hill raspberry has not been achieved; new populations are found every year, increasing the infested area that requires management. Off-target effects on native species resulting from control efforts seem to be substantial. Although a vast increase in economic investment would allow intensive searching that might enable all individuals to be found and controlled, the resultant disturbance and off-targets effects could outweigh the conservation benefits of eradication.

Benefits of oxygation of subsurface drip-irrigation water for cotton in a Vertosol

Australian cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) is predominantly grown on heavy clay soils (Vertosols). Cotton grown on Vertosols often experiences episodes of low oxygen concentration in the root-zone, particularly after irrigation events. In subsurface drip-irrigation (SDI), cotton receives frequent irrigation and sustained wetting fronts are developed in the rhizosphere. This can lead to poor soil diffusion of oxygen, causing temporal and spatial hypoxia. As cotton is sensitive to waterlogging, exposure to this condition can result in a significant yield penalty. Use of aerated water for drip irrigation (‘oxygation’) can ameliorate hypoxia in the wetting front and, therefore, overcome the negative effects of poor soil aeration. The efficacy of oxygation, delivered via SDI to broadacre cotton, was evaluated over seven seasons (2005–06 to 2012–13). Oxygation of irrigation water by Mazzei air-injector produced significantly (P < 0.001) higher yields (200.3 v. 182.7 g m–2) and water-use efficiencies. Averaged over seven years, the yield and gross production water-use index of oxygated cotton exceeded that of the control by 10% and 7%, respectively. The improvements in yields and water-use efficiency in response to oxygation could be ascribed to greater root development and increased light interception by the crop canopies, contributing to enhanced crop physiological performance by ameliorating exposure to hypoxia. Oxygation of SDI contributed to improvements in both yields and water-use efficiency, which may contribute to greater economic feasibility of SDI for broadacre cotton production in Vertosols.

Veneer based composite hollow utility poles manufactured from hardwood plantation thinned trees

Australia’s utility pole network is aging and approaching its end of life. It is estimated that 70% of the 5 million poles currently in-service nationally were installed within the 20 years following the end of World War II and require replacement or remedial maintenance. Additionally, an estimated 21,700 high-durability new poles are required each year to support the expansion of the energy network. Utility poles were traditionally cut from native forest hardwood species. However, due to agreements which progressively phase out logging of native forests around Australia, finding new sources for utility poles presents a challenge. This paper presents the development of veneer based composite hardwood hollow utility poles manufactured from mid-rotation Gympie messmate (Eucalyptus cloeziana) plantation thinned trees (also referred to as “thinning”), as an alternative to solid hardwood poles. The incentives behind the project and benefits of the proposed products are introduced in the paper. Small diameter poles, of nominal 115 mm internal diameter and 15 mm wall-thickness, were manufactured in two half-poles butt jointed together, using 9 hardwood veneers per half-pole. The poles were tested in bending and shear, and experimental test results are presented. The mechanical performance of the hollow poles is discussed and compared to hardwood poles sourced from mature trees and of similar size. Additionally, the required dimensions of the proposed hollow pole to replace actual solid poles are estimated. Results show that the proposed product represents a viable technical solution to the current shortage of utility poles. Future research and different options for improving the current concept are proposed in order to provide a more reliable and cost effective product for structural and architectural applications in general.

Optimizing sowing management for short duration dry seeded aman rice on the High Ganges River Floodplain of Bangladesh

Dry seeding of aman rice can facilitate timely crop establishment and early harvest and thus help to alleviate the monga (hunger) period in the High Ganges Flood Plain of Bangladesh. Dry seeding also offers many other potential benefits, including reduced cost of crop establishment and improved soil structure for crops grown in rotation with rice. However, the optimum time for seeding in areas where farmers have access to water for supplementary irrigation has not been determined. We hypothesized that earlier sowing is safer, and that increasing seed rate mitigates the adverse effects of significant rain after sowing on establishment and crop performance. To test these hypotheses, we analyzed long term rainfall data, and conducted field experiments on the effects of sowing date (target dates of 25 May, 10 June, 25 June, and 10 July) and seed rate (20, 40, and 60 kg ha−1) on crop establishment, growth, and yield of dry seeded Binadhan-7 (short duration, 110–120 d) during the 2012 and 2013 rainy seasons. Wet soil as a result of untimely rainfall usually prevented sowing on the last two target dates in both years, but not on the first two dates. Rainfall analysis also suggested a high probability of being able to dry seed in late May/early June, and a low probability of being able to dry seed in late June/early July. Delaying sowing from 25 May/10 June to late June/early July usually resulted in 20–25% lower plant density and lower uniformity of the plant stand as a result of rain shortly after sowing. Delaying sowing also reduced crop duration, and tillering or biomass production when using a low seed rate. For the late June/early July sowings, there was a strong positive relationship between plant density and yield, but this was not the case for earlier sowings. Thus, increasing seed rate compensated for the adverse effect of untimely rains after sowing on plant density and the shorter growth duration of the late sown crops. The results indicate that in this region, the optimum date for sowing dry seeded rice is late May to early June with a seed rate of 40 kg ha−1. Planting can be delayed to late June/early July with no yield loss using a seed rate of 60 kg ha−1, but in many years, the soil is simply too wet to be able to dry seed at this time due to rainfall.

Effect of drying, storage temperature and air exposure on astaxanthin stability from Haematococcus pluvialis

Astaxanthin is a powerful antioxidant with various health benefits such as prevention of age-related macular degeneration and improvement of the immune system, liver and heart function. To improve the post-harvesting stability of astaxanthin used in food, feed and nutraceutical industries, the biomass of the high astaxanthin producing alga Haematococcus pluvialis was dried by spray- or freeze-drying and under vacuum or air at − 20 °C to 37 °C for 20 weeks. Freeze-drying led to 41 higher astaxanthin recovery compared to commonly-used spray-drying. Low storage temperature (− 20 °C, 4 °C) and vacuum-packing also showed higher astaxanthin stability with as little as 12.3 ± 3.1 degradation during 20 weeks of storage. Cost-benefit analysis showed that freeze-drying followed by vacuum-packed storage at − 20 °C can generate AUD600 higher profit compared to spray-drying from 100 kg H. pluvialis powder. Therefore, freeze-drying can be suggested as a mild and more profitable method for ensuring longer shelf life of astaxanthin from H. pluvialis.

Prevalence and potential fitness cost of weak phosphine resistance in Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) in eastern Australia

The prevalence of resistance to phosphine in the rust-red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum, from eastern Australia was investigated, as well as the potential fitness cost of this type of resistance. Discriminating dose tests on 115 population samples collected from farms from 2006 to 2010 showed that populations containing insects with the weakly resistant phenotype are common in eastern Australia (65.2 of samples), although the frequency of resistant phenotypes within samples was typically low (median of 2.3). The population cage approach was used to investigate the possibility that carrying the alleles for weak resistance incurs a fitness cost. Hybridized populations were initiated using a resistant strain and either of two different susceptible strains. There was no evidence of a fitness cost based on the frequency of susceptible phenotypes in hybridized populations that were reared for seven generations without exposure to phosphine. This suggests that resistant alleles will tend to persist in field populations that have undergone selection even if selection pressure is removed. The prevalence of resistance is a warning that this species has been subject to considerable selection pressure and that effective resistance management practices are needed to address this problem. The resistance prevalence data also provide a basis against which to measure management success.

Agronomic benefits and risks associated with the irrigated peanut–maize production system under a changing climate in northern Australia

With the aim of increasing peanut production in Australia, the Australian peanut industry has recently considered growing peanuts in rotation with maize at Katherine in the Northern Territory—a location with a semi-arid tropical climate and surplus irrigation capacity. We used the well-validated APSIM model to examine potential agronomic benefits and long-term risks of this strategy under the current and warmer climates of the new region. Yield of the two crops, irrigation requirement, total soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) losses and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were simulated. Sixteen climate stressors were used; these were generated by using global climate models ECHAM5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0 and MRIGCM232 with a median sensitivity under two Special Report of Emissions Scenarios over the 2030 and 2050 timeframes plus current climate (baseline) for Katherine. Effects were compared at three levels of irrigation and three levels of N fertiliser applied to maize grown in rotations of wet-season peanut and dry-season maize (WPDM), and wet-season maize and dry-season peanut (WMDP). The climate stressors projected average temperature increases of 1°C to 2.8°C in the dry (baseline 24.4°C) and wet (baseline 29.5°C) seasons for the 2030 and 2050 timeframes, respectively. Increased temperature caused a reduction in yield of both crops in both rotations. However, the overall yield advantage of WPDM increased from 41% to up to 53% compared with the industry-preferred sequence of WMDP under the worst climate projection. Increased temperature increased the irrigation requirement by up to 11% in WPDM, but caused a smaller reduction in total SOC accumulation and smaller increases in N losses and GHG emission compared with WMDP. We conclude that although increased temperature will reduce productivity and total SOC accumulation, and increase N losses and GHG emissions in Katherine or similar northern Australian environments, the WPDM sequence should be preferable over the industry-preferred sequence because of its overall yield and sustainability advantages in warmer climates. Any limitations of irrigation resulting from climate change could, however, limit these advantages.

Improving cost-effectiveness of supplementation systems for breeder herds in northern Australia

Low level strategic supplements constitute one of the few options for northern beef producers to increase breeder productivity and profitability. Objectives of the project were to improve the cost-effectiveness of using such supplements and to improve supplement delivery systems. Urea-based supplements fed during the dry season can substantially reduce breeder liveweight loss and increase fertility during severe dry seasons. Also when fed during the late wet season these supplements increased breeder body liveweight and increased fertility of breeders in low body condition. Intake of dry lick supplements fed free choice is apparently determined primarily by the palatability of supplements relative to pasture, and training of cattle appears to be of limited importance. Siting of supplementation points has some effect on supplement intake, but little effect on grazing behaviour. Economic analysis of supplementation (urea, phosphorus or molasses) and weaning strategies was based on the relative efficacy of these strategies to maintain breeder body condition late in the dry season. Adequate body condition of breeders at this time of the year is needed to avoid mortality from under-nutrition and achieve satisfactory fertility of breeders during the following wet season. Supplements were highly cost-effective when they reduced mortality, but economic returns were generally low if the only benefit was increased fertility.