Modelling the manager: Representing rule-based management in farming systems simulation models

We trace the evolution of the representation of management in cropping and grazing systems models, from fixed annual schedules of identical actions in single paddocks toward flexible scripts of rules. Attempts to define higher-level organizing concepts in management policies, and to analyse them to identify optimal plans, have focussed on questions relating to grazing management owing to its inherent complexity. “Rule templates” assist the re-use of complex management scripts by bundling commonly-used collections of rules with an interface through which key parameters can be input by a simulation builder. Standard issues relating to parameter estimation and uncertainty apply to management sub-models and need to be addressed. Techniques for embodying farmers' expectations and plans for the future within modelling analyses need to be further developed, especially better linking planning- and rule-based approaches to farm management and analysing the ways that managers can learn.

Fine mapping of qGW1, a major QTL for grain weight in sorghum

Key message We detected seven QTLs for 100-grain weight in sorghum using an F 2 population, and delimited qGW1 to a 101-kb region on the short arm of chromosome 1, which contained 13 putative genes. Abstract Sorghum is one of the most important cereal crops. Breeding high-yielding sorghum varieties will have a profound impact on global food security. Grain weight is an important component of grain yield. It is a quantitative trait controlled by multiple quantitative trait loci (QTLs); however, the genetic basis of grain weight in sorghum is not well understood. In the present study, using an F2 population derived from a cross between the grain sorghum variety SA2313 (Sorghum bicolor) and the Sudan-grass variety Hiro-1 (S. bicolor), we detected seven QTLs for 100-grain weight. One of them, qGW1, was detected consistently over 2 years and contributed between 20 and 40 % of the phenotypic variation across multiple genetic backgrounds. Using extreme recombinants from a fine-mapping F3 population, we delimited qGW1 to a 101-kb region on the short arm of chromosome 1, containing 13 predicted gene models, one of which was found to be under purifying selection during domestication. However, none of the grain size candidate genes shared sequence similarity with previously cloned grain weight-related genes from rice. This study will facilitate isolation of the gene underlying qGW1 and advance our understanding of the regulatory mechanisms of grain weight. SSR markers linked to the qGW1 locus can be used for improving sorghum grain yield through marker-assisted selection.

Integrating pest population models with biophysical crop models to better represent the farming system

Farming systems frameworks such as the Agricultural Production Systems simulator (APSIM) represent fluxes through the soil, plant and atmosphere of the system well, but do not generally consider the biotic constraints that function within the system. We designed a method that allowed population models built in DYMEX to interact with APSIM. The simulator engine component of the DYMEX population-modelling platform was wrapped within an APSIM module allowing it to get and set variable values in other APSIM models running in the simulation. A rust model developed in DYMEX is used to demonstrate how the developing rust population reduces the crop's green leaf area. The success of the linking process is seen in the interaction of the two models and how changes in rust population on the crop's leaves feedback to the APSIM crop modifying the growth and development of the crop's leaf area. This linking of population models to simulate pest populations and biophysical models to simulate crop growth and development increases the complexity of the simulation, but provides a tool to investigate biotic constraints within farming systems and further moves APSIM towards being an agro-ecological framework.

Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

Hazard Function Models to Estimate Mortality Rates Affecting Fish Populations with Application to the Sea Mullet (Mugil cephalus) Fishery on the Queensland Coast (Australia)

Fisheries management agencies around the world collect age data for the purpose of assessing the status of natural resources in their jurisdiction. Estimates of mortality rates represent a key information to assess the sustainability of fish stocks exploitation. Contrary to medical research or manufacturing where survival analysis is routinely applied to estimate failure rates, survival analysis has seldom been applied in fisheries stock assessment despite similar purposes between these fields of applied statistics. In this paper, we developed hazard functions to model the dynamic of an exploited fish population. These functions were used to estimate all parameters necessary for stock assessment (including natural and fishing mortality rates as well as gear selectivity) by maximum likelihood using age data from a sample of catch. This novel application of survival analysis to fisheries stock assessment was tested by Monte Carlo simulations to assert that it provided unbiased estimations of relevant quantities. The method was applied to the data from the Queensland (Australia) sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) commercial fishery collected between 2007 and 2014. It provided, for the first time, an estimate of natural mortality affecting this stock: 0.22±0.08 year −1 .

Fine Mapping of qDor7, a Major QTL Affecting Seed Dormancy in Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench)

Seed dormancy is a key domestication trait for major crops, which is acquired in long-term systems development processes and enables the survival of plants in adverse natural conditions. It is a complex trait under polygenic control and is affected by endogenous and environmental factors. In the present study, a major seed dormancy QTL in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench), qDor7, detected previously, was fine mapped using a large, multi-generational population. The qDor7 locus was delimited to a 96-kb region which contains 16 predicted gene models. These results lay a solid foundation for cloning qDor7. In addition, the functional markers tightly linked to the seed dormancy QTL may be used in marker-assisted selection for seed dormancy in sorghum.