Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Absolute quantitation of Marek's disease virus and Herpesvirus of turkeys in chicken lymphocyte, feather tip and dust samples using real-time PCR

The further development of Taqman quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) assays for the absolute quantitation of Marek's disease virus serotype 1 (MDV1) and Herpesvirus of turkeys (HVT) viruses is described and the sensitivity and reproducibility of each assay reported. Using plasmid DNA copies, the lower limit of detection was determined to be 5 copies for the MDV1 assay and 75 copies for the HVT assay. Both assays were found to be highly reproducible for Ct values and calculated copy numbers with mean intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation being less than 5% for Ct and 20% for calculated copy number. The genome copy number of MDV1 and HVT viruses was quantified in PBL and feather tips from experimentally infected chickens, and field poultry dust samples. Parallelism was demonstrated between the plasmid-based standard curves, and standard curves derived from infected spleen material containing both viral and host DNA, allowing the latter to be used for absolute quantification. These methods should prove useful for the reliable differentiation and absolute quantitation of MDV1 and HVT viruses in a wide range of samples.

Spontaneous fermentation of traditional sago starch in Papua New Guinea

Sago starch is an important dietary carbohydrate in lowland Papua New Guinea (PNG). An investigation was conducted to determine whether microbes play a role in its preservation using traditional methods. In 12 stored sago samples collected from PNG villages, lactic acid bacteria (LAB) were present (>= 3.6 x 10(4) cfu/g) and pH ranged from 6.8 to 4.2. Acetic and propionic acids were detected in all samples, while butyric, lactic and valeric acids were present in six or more. In freshly prepared sago, held in sealed containers in the laboratory at 30 degrees C, spontaneous fermentation by endogenous microflora of sago starch was observed. This was evident by increasing concentrations of acetic, butyric and lactic acids over 4 weeks, and pH reducing from 4.9 to 3.1: both LAB and yeasts were involved. Survival of potential bacterial pathogens was monitored by seeding sago starch with similar to 10(4)/g of selected organisms. Numbers of Bacillus cereus, Listeria monocytogenes and Staphylococcus aureus fell to <30/g within 7 days. Salmonella sp. was present only in low numbers after 7 days (<36/g), but Escherichia coli was still detectable after three weeks (>10(2)/g). Fermentation appeared to increase the storability and safety of the product.

Evaluation of Ustilago sporoboli-indici as a classical biological control agent for invasive Sporobolus grasses in Australia

Sporobolus pyramidalis, S. africanus, S. natalensis, S. fertilis and S. jacquemontii, known collectively as the weedy Sporobolus grasses, are exotic weeds causing serious economic losses in grazing areas along Australia's entire eastern coast. In one of the first attempts to provide biological control for a grass, the potential of a smut, Ustilago sporoboli-indici, as a biological control agent for all five weedy Sporobolus spp. found in Australia was evaluated in glasshouse studies. Application of basidiospores to 21-day-old Sporobolus seedlings and subsequent incubation in a moist chamber (26 °C, 90% RH, 48 h) resulted in infection of S. pyramidalis, S. africanus, S. natalensis and S. fertilis but not S. jacquemontii. Host-range trials with 13 native Australian Sporobolus spp. resulted in infection of four native species. Evaluation of damage caused by the smut on two Australian native and two weedy Sporobolus spp. showed that the total numbers of flowers infected for the four grasses were in the following order: S. creber > S. fertilis > S. elongatus > S. natalensis with percentage flower infections of 21%, 14%, 12% and 3%, respectively. Significant differences (P = 0.001) were found when the numbers of infected flowers caused by each treatment were compared. The infection of the four native Sporobolus spp. by the smut indicated that it was not sufficiently host specific for release in Australia and the organism was rejected as a potential biological control agent. The implications of these results are discussed.

Are we focussing wild dog control the wrong time of the year and going about it the wrong way?

Our evaluation of the predation of calves by wild dogs in the 1990s found that the number of calves killed and frequency of years that calf losses occurred, is higher in baited areas compared to adjoining, non-baited areas of similar size. Calf losses were highest with poor seasonal conditions, low prey numbers and where baited areas were re-colonised by wild dogs soon after baiting. We monitored wild dog “activity” before and after 35 baiting programs in southwest, central west and far north Queensland between 1994 and 2006 and found change in activity depends on the timing of the baiting. Baiting programs conducted between October and April show an increase in dog activity post-baiting (average increase of 219.1%, SEM 100.9, n=9, for programs conducted in October and November; an increase of 82.5%, SEM 54.5, n=7 for programs conducted in March and April; and a decrease in activity of 46.5%, SEM 10.2, n=19 for programs conducted between May and September). We monitored the seasonal activity and dispersal of wild dogs fitted with satellite transmitters 2006 to present. We have found that: • Activity of breeding males and females, whilst rearing and nurturing pups, is focussed around the den between July to September and away from areas of human activity. Activity of breeding groups appears to avoid locations of human activity until juveniles become independent (around late November). • While independent and solitary yearlings often have unstable, elliptically-shaped territories in less favourable areas, members of breeding groups have territories that appear seasonally stable and circular located in more favourable habitats. • Extra-territorial forays of solitary yearlings can be huge, in excess of 200 km. The largest forays we have monitored have occurred when the activity of pack members is focussed around rearing pups and juveniles (August to November). • Where wild dogs have dispersed or had significant territorial expansion, it has occurred within days of baiting programs and onto recently baited properties. • The wild dogs we have tracked have followed netting barrier fences for hundreds of kilometres and lived adjacent to or bypassed numerous grids in the barrier. Based on these studies, we conclude that a proportion of the perceived decline in dog activity between May and September, post baiting, is due to a decline in dog activity in areas associated with human activity. The increase in dog activity post-baiting between October and May (and increased calf predation on baited properties) is likely caused by wild dogs dispersing (juveniles and yearlings) or expanding (adults) their territory into baited, now ‘vacant’, areas. We hypothesise that baiting programs should be focussed in summer and autumn commencing late November as soon as juveniles become independent of adults. We also hypothesise that instead of large, annual or semi-annual baiting programs, laying the same number of baits over 4-6 weeks may be more effective. These hypotheses need to be tested through an adaptive management project.

Control of rabbits in arid Australia: destroying the drought refuge

Rabbits continued to infest Bulloo Downs in southwest Queensland even after rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) had effectively reduced rabbit populations to very low levels in most other arid parts of Australia. Control efforts for over 100 years have all appeared unable to stop rabbits causing damage to cattle production and native plants and animals in the area. In 2001 an experiment established to measure the benefit of rabbit control to biodiversity and cattle production showed warren ripping to cause an immediate reduction in rabbit activity. Three months after ripping there were still 98% fewer rabbits in ripped plots despite these plots being exposed to invasion from surrounding populations. The cost of ripping was high because of the high density of warrens and is prohibitive for a full-scale programme. Nevertheless, ripping warrens just in the rabbit’s drought refuge (2002 -2004) appears to have effectively controlled rabbits over the entire property. Following one good season rabbits still have not recovered where the drought refuge was effectively ripped. Destroying warrens in the areas where rabbits survived droughts achieved a reduction in rabbits of over 99% ompared to a similar area near Coongie Lakes in South Australia. Low rabbit numbers allowed cattle to continue to be run on the property even though the area experienced seven consecutive years with below average rainfall. It still remains to be seen whether rabbits can recover from this low population-base during a run of good seasons. If rabbit numbers remain suppressed after a run of good seasons then rabbit control by destruction of drought refuge could be repeated at Coongie Lakes and other drought refuge areas in the arid zone. Identification and treatment of areas similar to Bulloo Downs where rabbits survive drought may relieve a very large area of arid Australia from the damage caused by rabbits.

A method for mapping the distribution and density of rabbits and other vertebrate pests in Australia

The European wild rabbit has been considered Australia’s worst vertebrate pest and yet little effort appears to have gone into producing maps of rabbit distribution and density. Mapping the distribution and density of pests is an important step in effective management. A map is essential for estimating the extent of damage caused and for efficiently planning and monitoring the success of pest control operations. This paper describes the use of soil type and point data to prepare a map showing the distribution and density of rabbits in Australia. The potential for the method to be used for mapping other vertebrate pests is explored. The approach used to prepare the map is based on that used for rabbits in Queensland (Berman et al. 1998). An index of rabbit density was determined using the number of Spanish rabbit fleas released per square kilometre for each Soil Map Unit (Atlas of Australian Soils). Spanish rabbit fleas were released into active rabbit warrens at 1606 sites in the early 1990s as an additional vector for myxoma virus and the locations of the releases were recorded using a Global Positioning System (GPS). Releases were predominantly in arid areas but some fleas were released in south east Queensland and the New England Tablelands of New South Wales. The map produced appears to reflect well the distribution and density of rabbits, at least in the areas where Spanish fleas were released. Rabbit pellet counts conducted in 2007 at 54 sites across an area of south east South Australia, south eastern Queensland, and parts of New South Wales (New England Tablelands and south west) in soil Map Units where Spanish fleas were released, provided a preliminary means to ground truth the map. There was a good relationship between mean pellet count score and the index of abundance for soil Map Units. Rabbit pellet counts may allow extension of the map into other parts of Australia where there were no Spanish rabbit fleas released and where there may be no other consistent information on rabbit location and density. The recent Equine Influenza outbreak provided a further test of the value of this mapping method. The distribution and density of domestic horses were mapped to provide estimates of the number of horses in various regions. These estimates were close to the actual numbers of horses subsequently determined from vaccination records and registrations. The soil Map Units are not simply soil types they contain information on landuse and vegetation and the soil classification is relatively localised. These properties make this mapping method useful, not only for rabbits, but also for other species that are not so dependent on soil type for survival.

Biocontrol of Chromolaena odorata in Papua New Guinea

The status of biocontrol of Chromolaena odorata, a weed of significant agricultural importance in Papua New Guinea, is assessed. Chromolaena is confirmed present in 391 sites in 12 of the 20 provinces of PNG. A collaborative project on the biocontrol of chromolaena involving the PNG National Agricultural Research Institute and the Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries began in1998, with funding from ACIAR. Three agents, the moth Pareuchaetes pseudoinsulata, which has established only in Morobe Province, the stem-galling fly Cecidochares connexa, which has established in all 12 provinces and the leaf mining fly Calycomyza eupatorivora, which is currently being monitored for establishment, have been introduced. Cecidochares connexa has been the most effective of the agents so far and it has spread more than 100 km in five years from some release sites. Preliminary field data have shown that the numbers of galls per plant have increased, coupled with a decrease in plant height and percent plant cover. In parts of New Ireland and Sandaun provinces, C. connexa has controlled chromolaena, resulting in the regeneration of natural vegetation. In addition, some food gardens have been re-established where chromolaena had once taken over. Consequently, food production has increased and income generated from selling agricultural produce has increased two fold. There is also less time spent in clearing chromolaena from food gardens and plantations. The effectiveness of C. connexa has brought relief to many communities, which are helping in the distribution of the gall fly to other areas affected by chromolaena.

Co-evolution of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and RHDV: resistance and virulence

Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV) was introduced to Australia in 1995 for the control of wild rabbits. Initial outbreaks greatly reduced rabbit numbers and the virus has continued to control rabbits to varying degrees in different parts of Australia. However, recent field evidence suggests that the virus may be becoming less effective in those areas that have previously experienced repeated epizootics causing high mortality. There are also reports of rabbits returning to pre-1995 density levels, Virus and host can be expected to co-evolve. The host will develop resistance to the virus with the virus subsequently changing to overcome that resistance. It has been 12 years since the release of RHDV and it is an opportune time to examine where the dynamic currently stands between RHDV and rabbits. Laboratory challenge tests have indicated that resistance to RHDV has developed to different degrees in populations throughout Australia. In one population a low dose (1:25 dilution) of Czech strain RHDV failed to infect a single susceptible rabbit, yet infected a low to high (up to 73%) percentage across other populations tested. Different selection pressures are present in these populations and will be driving the level of resistance being seen. The mechanisms and genetics behind the development of resistance are also important as the on-going use of RHDV as a control tool in the management of rabbits relies on our understanding of factors influencing the efficacy of the virus. Understanding how resistance has developed may provide clues on how best to use the virus to circumvent these mechanisms. Similarly, it will help in managing populations that have yet to develop high levels of resistance.

Ecological impacts of feral pig diggings in north Queensland rainforests

This two-year study examined the impacts of feral pig diggings on five ecological indicators: seedling survival, surface litter, subsurface plant biomass, earthworm biomass and soil moisture content. Twelve recovery exclosures were established in two habitats (characterised by wet and dry soil moisture) by fencing off areas of previous pig diggings. A total of 0.59 ha was excluded from further pig diggings and compared with 1.18 ha of unfenced control areas. Overall, seedling numbers increased 7% within the protected exclosures and decreased 37% within the unprotected controls over the two-year study period. A significant temporal interaction was found in the dry habitat, with seedling survival increasing with increasing time of protection from diggings. Feral pig diggings had no significant effect on surface litter biomass, subsurface plant biomass, earthworm biomass or soil moisture content.

Modelling management options for management of feral camels in central Australia

Camels (Camelus dromedarius) were introduced into Australia from the 1840s to the early 1900s for transport and hauling cargo in arid regions. Feral populations remained small until the 1930s when many were released after they were superseded for transport by trucks and rail. Although camels have a relatively slow population growth (<10% per annum), the population has not reached carrying capacity and therefore, requires control to reduce the increasing impacts on central Australia. The model developed for the Northern Territory suggested that currently there are insufficient numbers being removed. The model also investigated which control options would have greatest impacts and found harvesting to be most important. The extent to which commercial harvesting can feasibly reduce camel populations requires further analysis. Due to the wide dispersal of camels in Australia, fertility control, even if technically feasible, will not target adults, the most important age class of the population. Habitat preferences were also investigated in the model but more validation is required as the population is still under range expansion. Immediate action is suggested to alleviate future costs as camel populations and their impacts rise.

Scat contents of the spotted-tailed quoll Dasyurus maculatus in the New England gorges, north-eastern New South Wales

In 1313 scats of the spotted-tailed quoll Dasyurus maculatus, collected over 5 years from the gorge country of north-eastern New South Wales, the most frequent and abundant items were derived from mammals and a restricted set of insect orders. These quolls also ate river-associated items: waterbirds, eels, crayfish, aquatic molluscs and even frogs. Macropods contributed most of the mammal items, with possums, gliders and rodents also being common. Some food, particularly from macropods and lagomorphs, had been scavenged (as shown by fly larvae). The most frequent invertebrates were three orders of generally large insects Coleoptera, Hemiptera and Orthoptera, which were most frequent in summer and almost absent in winter scats. Monthly mean numbers of rodent and small dasyurid items per scat were inversely related to these large insects in scats. The numbers of reptile items were inversely related to the numbers of mammal (especially arboreal and small terrestrial mammal) items per scat, thus types of items interacted in their occurrences in monthly scat samples. Frequencies of most vertebrate items showed no seasonal, but much year-to-year, variation. This quoll population ate four main types of items, each requiring different skills to obtain: they hunted arboreal marsupials (possibly up trees), terrestrial small mammals and reptiles (on the ground), and seasonally available large insects (on trees or the ground), and scavenged carcases, mostly of large mammals but also birds and fishes (wherever they could find them).

Maximising the contribution of native-range studies towards the identification and prioritisation of weed biocontrol agents

Effective study in the native range to identify potential agents underpins all efforts in classical biological control of weeds. Good agents that demonstrate both a high degree of host specificity and the potential to be damaging are a very limited resource and must therefore be carefully studied and considered. The overseas component is often operationally difficult and expensive but can contribute considerably more than a list of herbivores attacking a particular target. While the principles underlying this foreign component have been understood for some time, recently developed technologies and methods can make very significant contributions to foreign studies. Molecular and genetic characterisations of both target weed and agent organism can be increasingly employed to more accurately define the identity and phylogeny of them. Climate matching and modelling software is now available and can be utilised to better select agents for particular regions of concern. Relational databases can store collection information for analysis and future enquiry while quantification of sampling effort, employment of statistical survey methods and analysis by techniques such as rarefaction curves contribute to efficient and effective searching. Obtaining good and timely identifications for discovered agent organisms is perhaps the most serious issue confronting the modern explorer. The diminishing numbers of specialist taxonomists employed at the major museums while international and national protocols demand higher standards of identity exacerbates the issue. Genetic barcoding may provide a very useful tool to overcome this problem. Native-range work also offers under-exploited opportunities for contributing towards predicting safety, abundance and efficacy of potential agents in their target environment.

Local dispersion and damage of Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (Myrtaceae) regrowth by eriophyid mites (Acari: Eriophyoidea).

Eriophyid mites (Acari: Eriophyoidea: Eriophyidae: Rhombacus sp. and Acalox ptychocarpi Keifer) are recently-emerged pests of commercial eucalypt plantations in subtropical Australia. They cause severe blistering, necrosis and leaf loss to Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (F. Muell.) K.D. Hill & L.A.S. Johnson, one of the region's most important hardwood plantation species. In this study we examine the progression, incidence and severity of these damage symptoms. We also measure within-branch colonisation by mites to identify dispersive stages, and estimate the relative abundance of the two co-occurring species. Rhombacus sp., an undescribed species, was numerically dominant, accounting for over 90% of all adult mites. Adults were the dispersive stage, moving mostly within branches, but 12% of recruitment onto new leaves occurred on previously uninfested branches. Damage incidence and severity were correlated, while older leaves had more damage than younger leaves. "Patch-type" damage was less frequent but was associated with higher mite numbers and damage scores than "spot-type" damage, while leaf discoloration symptoms related mostly to leaf age.

Reduced efficacy of macrocyclic lactone treatments in controlling gastrointestinal nematode infections of weaner dairy calves in subtropical eastern Australia.

Faecal Egg Count Reduction Tests (FECRTs) for macrocyclic lactone (ML) and levamisole (LEV) drenches were conducted on two dairy farms in the subtropical, summer rainfall region of eastern Australia to determine if anthelmintic failure contributed to severe gastrointestinal nematode infections observed in weaner calves. Subtropical Cooperia spp. were the dominant nematodes on both farms although significant numbers of Haemonchus placei were also present on Farm 2. On Farm 1, moxidectin pour-on (MXD) drenched at 0.5 mg kg-1 liveweight (LW) reduced the overall Cooperia burden by 82% (95% confidence limits, 37-95%) at day 7 post-drench. As worm burdens increased rapidly in younger animals in the control group (n = 4), levamisole was used as a salvage drench and these calves withdrawn from the trial on animal welfare grounds after sample collection at day 7. Levamisole (LEV) dosed at 6.8 mg kg-1 LW reduced the worm burden in these calves by 100%, 7 days after drenching. On Farm 2, MXD given at 0.5 mg kg-1 LW reduced the faecal worm egg count of cooperioids at day 8 by 96% (71-99%), ivermectin oral (IVM) at 0.2 mg kg-1 LW by 1.6% (-224 to 70%) and LEV oral at 7.1 mg kg-1 LW by 100%. For H. placei the reductions were 98% (85-99.7%) for MXD, 0.7% (-226 to 70%) for IVM and 100% for LEV. This is the first report in Australia of the failure of macrocyclic lactone treatments to control subtropical Cooperia spp. and suspected failure to control H. placei in cattle.